Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021 PreviewResearch Team ...

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Global EV Penetration will Increase from 4.5% in 2020 to 6.1% in 2021

Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021

M G 2 8 - 4 5

J u l y 2 0 2 1

G l o b a l A u t o m o t i v e & T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h T e a m a t F r o s t & S u l l i v a n

Preview

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Section Slide Number

Growth Environment 12

Key Highlights of the Electric Vehicle Market, 2020 13

Impact of COVID-19 on the EV Industry 14

The 2020 Global Electric Vehicle Market—Actuals Versus Forecast 15

Electric Vehicles Sold in the Last Decade 16

Global EV Market, 2020 17

EV Growth and Penetration—Top 10 Countries 18

EV Growth and Penetration—Top 10 OEMs 19

Hybrid Electric Vehicles Sold in the Last Decade 20

Global HEV Market, 2020 21

Top Predictions, 2021 22

Global EV Market, 2021e 23

EV Growth and Penetration, Top 10 OEMs 24

Global Uptake of xEVs, 2015 to 2030 (Favorable Scenario) 25

EV Sales Mix by Segment 26

Potential Key OEM Launches 27

Contents

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EV Growth and Penetration—Top 10 Countries 28

Growth Environment, 2021 Global Economic Outlook 29

COVID-19 Impact on World GDP Growth 30

Global Growth Scenario Analysis—Assumptions 31

World GDP Growth Under Differing Scenarios 32

COVID-19 Impact on Key Regions 33

Strategic Imperatives 34

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow? 35

The Strategic Imperative 8™ 36

The Impact of the Top-three Strategic Imperatives on Electric Vehicle Industry 37

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™ 38

Segmentation and Scope, Global Electric Vehicle Industry 39

Research Scope 40

Vehicle Segmentation 41

xEV Market Overview—Europe, 2020 42

Europe—Key Highlights (BEV and PHEV) 43

Contents (continued)

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Top Predictions for 2021—Europe 44

Europe—Historic EV Sales 45

Europe—Market Trends in 2020 46

Europe—Market Trends in 2021e 47

Market Transition—2019 Versus 2020 48

Europe—Top 10 Models 49

Impact of Incentives on EV Growth 50

Europe—Potential Launches 51

Europe—Key Highlights (FHEV and MHEV) 52

Europe—Historic HEV Sales 53

Europe—Market Trends in 2020 54

2019 Versus 2020 55

Europe—Charging Station Installations 56

Europe—Charging Station Installations 57

xEV Market Overview—China, 2020 58

China—Key Highlights (BEV and PHEV) 59


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Top Predictions for 2021—China 60

China—Historic EV Sales 61

China—Market Trends in 2020 62

China—Market Trends in 2021e 63


China—Top 10 Models 65

Market Evaluation Dashboard—China Overview 66

China—Potential Launches 67

China—Key Highlights (FHEV and MHEV) 68

China—Historic HEV Sales 69

China—Market Trends in 2020 70


China—Charging Station Installations 72

China—Charging Station Installations 73

xEV Market Overview—Americas, 2020 74

Americas—Key Highlights (BEV and PHEV) 75


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Top Predictions for 2021e—Americas 76

Americas—Historic EV Sales 77

Americas—Market Trends in 2020 78

Americas—Market Trends in 2021e 79


Americas—Top 10 Models 81

Impact of EV Incentives on EV Growth 82

Americas—Potential Launches 83

Americas—Key Highlights (FHEV and MHEV) 84

Americas—Historic HEV Sales 85

Americas—HEV Market Trends in 2020 86


Americas—Charging Station Installations 88

Americas—EV Charging Station Installations 89

xEV Market Overview—APAC (excluding China), 2020 90

APAC—Key Highlights (BEV and PHEV) 91


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Top Predictions for 2021—APAC 92

APAC—Historic EV Sales 93

APAC—Market Trends in 2020 94

APAC—Market Trends in 2021e 95


APAC—Top 10 Models 97

APAC—Potential Launches 98

Impact of Incentives on EV Growth 99

APAC—Key Highlights (FHEV and MHEV) 100

APAC—Historic HEV Sales 101

APAC—Market Trends in 2020 102


APAC—Charging Station Installations 104

APAC—EV Charging Station Installations 105

xEV Market Overview—The Middle East and Africa (MEA), 2020 106

MEA—Key Highlights (BEV and PHEV) 107


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Top Predictions for 2021—MEA 108

MEA—Historic EV Sales 109

MEA—Market Trends in 2020 110

MEA—Market Trends in 2021e 111


MEA—Top 10 Models 113

The Middle East and Africa—Charging Station Installations and Impact of Incentives 114

MEA—Potential Launches 115

MEA—Key Highlights (FHEV and MHEV) 116

MEA—Historic HEV Sales 117

MEA—Market Trends in 2020 118


DC Charging and Ultra Fast Charging Infrastructure Trends 120

Current Trends and Dynamics 121

Ultra-fast Charging Trends 122

Charging Standards—Overview of DC 123


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Charging Standards—Combined Charging System (CCS) 125

Potential Business Model—Ultra-fast Charging 126

Potential Business Models 127

Charging Standards—CHAdeMO, GB/T, ChaoJi ROADMAP 128

Charging Standards—CharIN Association (CCS) 129

Charging Standards—Tesla 130

EV Charging Roadmap, DC Charging Strategy of BEV OEMs 131

EV Roadmap—DC Charging Strategy of PHEV OEMs 132

EV Battery Second Life 133

Current Trends and Dynamics 134

EV Battery Second Life Trends 135

Secondary Life Applications 136

Establishment of a Circular Economy 137

Synergies and Partnerships between OEMs and Recycling Companies 138

Recycling and Reuse Market Outlook 139


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Recycling and Reuse Market Outlook 140

Battery Reuse and Recycling—Installed Battery 141

Estimated Reuse and Recycling Capacity—Up to 2030 142

EV Battery Recycling Regulations 143

Reuse and Recycling of Lithium-based Batteries in EVs 144

Shared Stakeholder Responsibility (SSR)—Global Scenario 145

Battery Collection Targets by Country 146

Electric Vehicle Battery Outlook 147

Popular Lithium Battery Chemistries 148

Global EVs—2020 Split by Chemistries and Top 5 OEMs’ Battery Utilization 149

Global EVs—2020 Split by Chemistries and Suppliers’ Battery Capacity 150

Lithium Batteries Continue to Make Promising Gains 151

Evolution of Battery (Pack) Energy Density 152

Cost and Composition of a Typical Battery, 2020 153


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Growth Opportunity Universe, Global Electric Vehicle Market 154

Growth Opportunity 1—Electric Vehicles with Advanced Battery Packs for Improved Efficiency and Lower Cost

155

Growth Opportunity 2—Electrification of Flagship Models with a Preference toward BEV with Ultra-fast Charging Capability

157

Growth Opportunity 3—Evolving Business Models 159

Appendix 161

Abbreviations And Acronyms Used 162

Key Conclusions 163

Key Conclusions and Future Outlook 164

List of Exhibits 165

Legal Disclaimer 179


Author: Prajyot Sathe

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Strategic Imperatives

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Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

Source: Frost & Sullivan

The Strategic Imperative 8™: Factors Creating Pressure on Growth

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The Strategic Imperative 8™


Customer Value Chain

Compression

Innovative Business

Models

Transformative Mega

Trends Internal Challenges

Geopolitical Chaos Competitive Intensity Disruptive Technologies Industry Convergence

Customer value chain compression as a result of advanced technologies, internet platforms, and other direct-to-consumer models that enables reduction in friction and the number of steps in customer journeys

A new revenue model that defines how a company creates and capitalizes economic value, typically impacting its value proposition, product offering, operational strategies, and brand positioning

Global forces that define the future world with their far-reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures, and personal lives

The internal organizational behaviors that prevent a company from making required changes

Chaos and disorder arising from political discord, natural calamities, pandemics, and social unrest that impact global trade, collaboration, and business security

A new wave of competition from start-ups and digital business models that challenge the standing conventions of the past, compelling established industries to re-think their competitive stance

New, disruptive technologies that are displacing the old, and significantly altering the way consumers, industries, or businesses operate

Collaboration between previously disparate industries to deliver on whitespace cross-industry growth opportunities Prev

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The Impact of the Top-three Strategic Imperatives on Electric Vehicle Industry


Transformative Mega Trends Competitive Intensity Disruptive Technologies

• Countries across the globe are working

toward ambitious targets. Some of these

are:

o Net zero emissions by 2050

o ICE ban from 2030 in some regions

• xEV passenger car penetration reached

11.6% in 2020.

• In 2020, global BEV share was 3.1% and is

expected to grow to 4.1% in 2021.

• By 2025, EVs will constitute approximately

10% to 15% of the total overall passenger

car market.

• Ultra-fast charging will be the key to

long-distance travel which will be

established in sufficient numbers in the

next 4-to-5 years.

SI8

• The global push toward electrification and

fuel economy is leading to ever-stringent

emissions norms.

o This has resulted in some regions

already committing to ICE bans.

o Some regions are still working toward

specific commitments.

• Battery electric vehicles, with longer range,

are competitively priced compared to ICE

vehicles.

• Increasing number of fast-charging stations

will reduce the range anxiety and charging

capability.

• Ultra-fast charging is being widely adopted

to overcome the challenge of a long

charging time. Wh

y W

he

n

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Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

The Growth Pipeline Engine™ The Innovation Generator™

An

alytical P

ersp

ective

s


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Segmentation and Scope, Global Electric Vehicle Industry

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Research Scope


The study covers the automotive market that develops and provides products, solutions, and/or services for mobility of people. The key sectors considered as per the scope of the study are:

• Cars

• Car-based SUVs

• Pickup Trucks

Market/Segment/

Program Area

2021, unless otherwise indicated Forecast Period

2020 to 2021; in some cases, long-term (2023, 2025, 2030) and historical data outlook may also be presented

Study Period

2020 Base Year

• Asia-Pacific (excluding China)

• Americas

• China

• Europe

• The Middle East and Africa

Geographic Scope Preview

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Vehicle Segmentation


Class Description Global Traditional Segment Examples

Small A—Basic Basic Citroen C1, Fiat 500, Renault Twingo, VW Up!, Smart Fortwo

B—Small Sub-compact FIAT 500L, Honda Fit, Ford Fiesta, Nissan March, Toyota Yaris

Medium

C—Lower Medium Compact

Volvo V40, Subaru Impreza, VW Golf, Ford Focus, Mercedes-Benz A-Class

Super Compact Toyota Etios Platinum, Mahindra Verito, Suzuki Swift Dzire

D—Upper Medium Midsize Cadillac CTS, Toyota Camry, Ford Mondeo, Mercedes C-Class, VW Passat

High End

E—Executive Large Lincoln Continental, BMW 5 Series, Audi A6, Mercedes-Benz E-Class

F—Luxury Large Plus BMW 7 Series, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, Audi A8, Lexus LS

G—Sports Sport Jaguar XJ, Audi A7, Mercedes-Benz SLC-Class, Ford Mustang

Van

MPV MPV VW Sharan, Toyota Innova, Toyota Sienna

SUV SUV Audi Q5, BMW X3 and X6, Ford Explorer, Chevrolet Tahoe

Van Van Citroen Berlingo, Ford Transit, Mercedes-Benz Sprinter, Toyota Commuter

Pickup Pickup Pickup Toyota Hilux, Nissan Frontier, Chevrolet Silverado, Ford F-150 Preview

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xEV Market Overview—Europe, 2020

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Europe—Historic EV Sales

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2020. Source: Frost & Sullivan

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e

Electric Vehicle Market: Historic EV Sales, Europe, 2014–2021e

Un

its

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Recycling and Reuse Market Outlook

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Battery Reuse and Recycling—Installed Battery


Till 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Electric Vehicle Market: Battery Market Outlook, Global, 2020

Inst

alle

d B

atte

ry C

apac

ity

(MW

H)

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Estimated Reuse and Recycling Capacity—Up to 2030


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Bat

tery

(M

WH

)

Electric Vehicle Market: Estimated Battery Capacity for Reuse and Recycling, 2020–2030

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Growth Opportunity Universe, Global Electric Vehicle Market

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Growth Opportunity 1—Electric Vehicles with Advanced Battery Packs for Improved Efficiency and Lower Cost


Frost & Sullivan has identified 10 Growth Processes that serve as levers for determining and evaluating new Growth Opportunities.

Growth Processes

Customer and Branding Distribution

Channel Optimization

Geographic Expansion

Competitive Strategy

New Product Development

New Product Launch

Vertical Market Expansion

Strategic Partnering

Mergers and Acquisitions

Technology and IP

Relevant Industries for This Growth Opportunity Applicable Regions > $1 B

2 Years

Industrial Automation

Environmental

Oil & Gas

Building Technologies

Consumer Electronics

Consumer Mobility

Commercial Mobility

Chemicals & Materials

Ag., Food & Nutrition

Test & Measurement

Aerospace

Defense

Security

Communications Tech

Information Tech

Pharma & Biotech

Advanced Medtech

Fintech

Opp. Size in 5 Years

North America

Latin America

Cent/East Europe

Asia-Pacific

Africa

China

South Asia

Middle East

European Union

UK

Japan

Oceania

Timeline for Action

Base Year 2020 Preview

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Growth Opportunity 2—Electrification of Flagship Models with a Preference toward BEV with Ultra-fast Charging Capability



Growth Processes






New Product Launch




Technology and IP

Relevant Industries for This Growth Opportunity Applicable Regions > $1 B

2 Years


Environmental

Oil & Gas



Consumer Mobility

Commercial Mobility



Test & Measurement

Aerospace

Defense

Security

Communications Tech

Information Tech

Pharma & Biotech

Advanced Medtech

Fintech


North America

Latin America

Cent/East Europe

Asia-Pacific

Africa

China

South Asia

Middle East

European Union

UK

Japan

Oceania

Timeline for Action


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Growth Opportunity 3—Evolving Business Models



Growth Processes






New Product Launch




Technology and IP

Relevant Industries for This Growth Opportunity Applicable Regions $500 M–

$1 B

2 Years


Environmental

Oil & Gas



Consumer Mobility

Commercial Mobility



Test & Measurement

Aerospace

Defense

Security

Communications Tech

Information Tech

Pharma & Biotech

Advanced Medtech

Fintech


North America

Latin America

Cent/East Europe

Asia-Pacific

Africa

China

South Asia

Middle East

European Union

UK

Japan

Oceania

Timeline for Action


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Legal Disclaimer

Frost & Sullivan is not responsible for any incorrect information supplied by companies or users.

Quantitative market information is based primarily on interviews and therefore is subject to fluctuation.

Frost & Sullivan research services are limited publications containing valuable market information

provided to a select group of customers. Customers acknowledge, when ordering or downloading, that

Frost & Sullivan research services are for internal use and not for general publication or disclosure to

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without written permission. Furthermore, no part may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or

transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or

otherwise—without the permission of the publisher.

For information regarding permission, write to:

Frost & Sullivan

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Santa Clara, CA 95054

© 2021 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied, or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan. Prev

iew

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