Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank
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Transcript of Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank
![Page 1: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Global Economic Prospects
January 2014
Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic
World BankJanuary 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
![Page 2: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
![Page 3: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
![Page 4: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
![Page 5: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
![Page 6: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
![Page 7: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
- 44%
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Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the
first time in 13 months, signaling an improvement in manufacturing
output going forward.
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Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
![Page 10: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
![Page 11: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
![Page 12: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Tourist Ar-rivals
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
![Page 13: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Tourist Ar-rivals
- 57%
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
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Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0mb/d
Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters
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Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0mb/d
Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters
7.3
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Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0mb/d
Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters
7.3
8.5
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Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0mb/d
Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters
7.3
8.5
10.5
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Develop-ing MENA
External imbalances have worsened in the region
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Develop-ing MENA
External imbalances have worsened in the region
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Develop-ing MENA
External imbalances have worsened in the region
![Page 21: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5 Forecast
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Im-porters
Develop-ing MENA
Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
![Page 22: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5 Forecast
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Im-porters
Develop-ing MENA
Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
![Page 23: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Developing MENA
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Developing MENA
2.8%
![Page 25: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Developing MENA
3.6%
![Page 26: Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54c72ae84a7959cf018b4721/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Global Economic Prospects
January 2014
Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic
World BankJanuary 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook