GLOBAL CRUDE OIL UPDATE · 2017. 1. 4. · Russia (in 1918), Mexico (in 1938), and Iran (in 1951)...
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GLOBAL CRUDE OIL UPDATE
Transcript of GLOBAL CRUDE OIL UPDATE · 2017. 1. 4. · Russia (in 1918), Mexico (in 1938), and Iran (in 1951)...
GLOBAL CRUDE OIL UPDATE
Is A Picture Worth a 1,000,000,000,000 Barrels of Oil?
A Game Changer
Source: theblaze.com
Key “Hysterical” Oil Events
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014
US dollars per barrel World Events
The Key Players
The Seven Sisters Vs
Nationalized Oil
The Seven Sisters
1908-1950 – Seven oil companies dominate the world oil markets (Exxon/Shell/BP/Gulf/Texaco/Mobil/Chevron)
1952-1978 – Market grew to 300 companies/firms
and 50 State owned companies
Today approx. 10% of world’s estimated reserves are in non-nationalized countries (slim pickings to say the least)
Major Oil Co. production
1973 = 25.5 MMBPD 1982 = 6.7 MMBPD 2013 = 12.5 MMBPD
Nationalization
Ten Countries Nationalized prior to 1970 Russia (in 1918), Mexico (in 1938), and Iran (in 1951)
were the among the first countries to try Nationalization, but they were largely unsuccessful due to broad powers of the seven sisters
Algeria led the charge to Nationalization in the
modern era, 1970 By 1976 almost all major Middle
East/Asian/African/Latin American countries were Nationalized
Proved Oil Reserves by Country 2014, Top 20 Countries
7 8 9 10 12 13
24 25
30 31
37 48
80 98
104 140
157 173
268 298
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
AzerbaijanEcuador
AngolaMexicoAlgeria
BrazilChinaQatar
KazakhstanUnited States
NigeriaLibya
RussiaUnited Arab Emirates
KuwaitIraqIran
CanadaSaudi Arabia
Venezuela
Billions of Barrels of Crude Oil
Source: US Energy Information Administration
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-cheap-is-cheap-oil.html
World Oil Demand vs. % GDP Spent on Oil
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-cheap-is-cheap-oil.html
World Oil Demand vs. GDP vs. Oil Price
Yearly U.S. Domestic Production Of Crude Oil
Peak Production: 1970 Approx. 10 MBPD Lowest Recent Production: 2008 Approx. 5 MBPD Production today: Approx. 8.6 MBPD Peak Production prior to 2020 at 10-11 MBPD
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Texas Field Production of Crude Oil
Source: US Energy Information Administration
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Thou
sand
Bbl
s per
Day
Texas Field Production of Crude Oil
Lower 48 Crude Plays
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Locations of U.S. Refineries
Source: Baker O’Brien
U.S. Continues to Dominate Worldwide Light Tight Oil Production
Source: OECD, International Energy Agency, U.S. Global Investors
Open Interest at 5 Year Low
Source: Bloomberg
WTI Crude June – October 10, 2014
Source: CME Group
Oil Balances Suggest OPEC Will be Challenged
OPEC Spare Capacity OPEC Share of Global Supply
Source: BC Energy Outlook 2035
Domestic Light Crude Options
Increase discounts to refineries to incentivize them • Permian Basin almost $20 below WTI right now
Reconfigure refineries at costs approaching $200M
Export It
Leave it in the ground
Imports Are Getting Heavier
Source: Bipartisan Policy Center
Crude Oil Input Qualities
30.2
30.4
30.6
30.8
31
31.2
31.4
31.6
1.36%
1.38%
1.40%
1.42%
1.44%
1.46%
1.48%
1.50%
1.52%
Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Wei
ghte
d Av
erag
e (D
egre
es)
Wei
ghte
d Av
erag
e (%
)
Sulfur Content API Gravity
Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Sulfur Content 1.51% 1.51% 1.45% 1.47% 1.46% 1.42% API Gravity 30.94 30.71 31.39 31.19 31.22 31.41
Source: US Energy Information Administration
LLS vs. Maya
Eagle Ford 45 API Crude = 21% Gas Oil and 5% Resid
Light Crude Oil Challenges
Crude supply chain logistics • Truck/Rail vs. Pipe
Asphalt yields Condensate Exports
Crude Supply Changes
Source: Intertek
Contact Info: [email protected]
U.S. Refinery Yields of Asphalt
Source: US Energy Information Administration
2% At current rates = 21 MTPA Current USA asphalt demand per year = low 20’s MTPA
First Cargo of Condensate Exported out U.S. since 1970’s
Source: http://peak-oil.org
Contact Info: [email protected]
