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Transcript of Global credit absolute return citywire june 2012
AVIVA INVESTORS GLOBAL CREDIT ABSOLUTE RETURN
June 26, 2012
Prepared for qualified investors only
IMPORTANT INFORMATION SWITZERLAND: The Global Credit Absolute Return fund has not been approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) as a foreign collective investment scheme pursuant to Article 120 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (the "CISA") Accordingly, the shares may not be offered to the public in or from Switzerland and neither this presentation nor any other offering materials relating to the shares may be made available through a public offering in or from Switzerland. The shares may only be offered and this presentation may only be distributed in or from Switzerland by way of private placement to "Qualified Investors" (as defined in the CISA and its implementing ordinance).
1 Introduction to Aviva Investors
2 Team overview
3 Performance
4 Investment process
5 Appendix
AGENDAGlobal Credit Absolute Return Fund
Aviva Investors
• Globally integrated asset management
business of Aviva plc, the world’s sixth-largest
insurance group1
• Categorized as a top 20 asset manager
based on total worldwide institutional assets
under management2
• Over CHF325 billion assets under
management worldwide
• Over 450 institutional clients worldwide
• Over 20 locations worldwide
1Based on gross world-wide premiums for the year ended 12/31/20102Based on 12/31/2010 AUM; Pension and Investments June 27, 2011 issue
All other information on this page as of 31 Dec 2011.
Assets Under Management by Asset Class
CHF Billion
AVIVA INVESTORS OVERVIEW
Fixed Income
• Major presence in global fixed income markets
• Global capability that spans the full fixed
income opportunity set
• A natural investor in bonds – significant short
and long dated insurance liability business
• Integrated risk analysis
Credit40%
Sovereign46%
Convertibles1%
Other13%
Global fixed income, $256bn
3
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
CHF20
CHF17
CHF30
CHF51
CHF204
Other
Cash
Real Estate
Equities
Fixed Income
● Five senior
fundamental
credit analysts
● Five fundamental
credit analysts in
Mumbai
● Three Quant
Analysts in
Mumbai
● Advanced
modeling
Substantial
Analytical
Resources
● 9+ years of team
collaboration
● Team experience of
managing €2bn+ bank
prop credit book and a
successful credit hedge
fund
● Fundamental, quantitative
and trading skills
● Global hedge fund, prop
trading, asset
management and
investment banking
experience
● Credit skills
encompassing alpha
generation, risk and
liquidity management
Global Process, Analytics,
Communication
● Mark Wauton –
Portfolio / Risk
Manager with 25+
years of fixed
income experience
● Jiten Joshi – 18+
years Portfolio
Management /
Fundamental
Analytical
experience
● Dinesh Pawar –
10+ years of
Portfolio
Management /
Credit Trading
experience
Fund Managers with
Complementary
Skills
GLOBAL TEAM EXPERIENCE
4
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
AVIVA INVESTORS – GLOBAL CREDIT ABSOLUTE RETURN FUND PERFORMANCE
Performance versus benchmark to 31 May 2012
Source: Lipper Hindsight & Aviva Investors 31 May 2012. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees in EUR.Benchmark: 3 Month EURIBOR . Past performance is not a guide to the future.
3 months Year to Date 6 months 1 year
Aviva Investors - Global Credit Absolute Return Fund 0.39% 3.19% 4.71% 1.82%
5
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
3 months Year to Date 6 months 1 year
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Risk Management /
Hedging
INVESTMENT PROCESS
Ensure strategy is beta neutral during
periods of high volatility and spread
widening
Look to take advantage of an emerging
shorter term trend and use market
“beta” as a source of “alpha”
Ongoing assessment of all sources
of risk at the position and portfolio
level
Actively hedging risks as they
materialize and create downside risk,
Manage leverage profile, periodic
stress testing, trade discipline and
nimble response to credit events
Thoroughly researched individual
positions with quantitative overlay
Primarily focused on liquid, higher
capital structure investments
Bias towards “asset rich” plays in long
positions where higher recovery values
limit “asymmetric” risk
Consistent Alpha
Generation
Manage Beta
Positioning
6
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Strategic Holdings Tactical Holdings Indices
Investment
Characteristics
Higher quality, lower
volatility, stable to
improving credit profile,
generally secured or senior
Higher volatility, special
situation names with a
substantial value gap and
identified catalysts
Broad market indices
consistent with market
volatility
Primary
Objective
Carry Capital Return Carry / Capital Return
Ratings BB/B, Investment Grade B/CCC, Investment Grade
Direction Long Long + Short Long + Short
Instruments Primarily Cash Bonds,
some CDS
Cash, CDS Credit Indices, Index
Options, Equity options,
Rate Futures
Horizon 6-12 months 3-6 months 3-6 months
% Gross 60 to 80% 20% to 80% 0 to 50%
% NAV 60 to 80% -50 to 50% -25% to 25%
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Strategic +
Tactical
Longs
Tactical
ShortsNet
Exposure
Credit Index trades are more tactical in nature and are generally layered in to change the beta positioning and therefore directional bias of the strategy
Credit
Indices
7
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Aviva Investors Global Credit Absolute Return
Investment policy / objective Aim to achieve a positive return under all market
conditions by investing in global corporate bonds with an
emphasis on high yield, CDS, loans and equities.
Performance target* 3.5% to 5% above 3 month EURIBOR, Net
Leverage Up to 2.5X
Base currency EUR, with hedged share classes in GBP and USD
Legal structure Sub-fund of Aviva Investors SICAV
Liquidity Daily
Minimum investment € / $ / ₤ 500,000
Annual management fee 0.50%
Performance fee 20% of performance above 3 month EURIBOR
High Watermark Yes
Administrator JP Morgan Bank Luxembourg
Auditor Ernst & Young
Legal Counsel Elvinger, Hoss & Prussen
STRATEGY TERMS
8
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
*Internal target only, does not form part of the fund objective.
SUMMARY: THE AVIVA INVESTORS EDGE
Deep
Analysis
Trade
Discipline
Active
HedgingLiquidity
Global team with 9+ years
experience working together
Minimize risk of
capital loss via
capital structure
hedging
Focus on issuers
with larger
capital structures
People
Stop-losses, profit-
taking with identified
target levels’
continuous
assessment of
technical entry/exit
points
Diligent
fundamental and
quantitative
research
9
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
APPENDIX
10
Source: Bloomberg. * Net Return. Past performance is not indicative of future results. **There is no assurance that an objective can be achieved. Any statement of return or other performance by an
index is not a representation or assurance that the information or performance attributed to the index was accurately compiled or published; Aviva Investors has not independently verified index-related
information. Index returns are provided to represent the investment environment existing during the time periods shown. For comparison purposes, an index is fully invested, which includes the
reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, but index returns do not include any transaction costs, management fees, or other costs that would reduce returns. Composition of each separately
managed account portfolio in a composite may differ from securities in the corresponding benchmark index. An index is used as a performance benchmark only, as Aviva Investors does not attempt to
replicate an index. The prior performance of an index will not be predictive of the future performance of accounts managed by Aviva Investors. An investor may not invest directly in an index. For full
information on benchmarks please refer to Appendix
PERFORMANCE METRICS
11
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
The Aviva Investors Global Credit Absolute Return Strategy (Aviva GCAR) was launched on May 31, 2011 as the
first credit absolute return strategy on the Aviva Investors platform with a target return: L+ 350 - 500 net of fees**.
Despite being launched close to the top of recent spread levels followed by immediate significant volatility in credit
markets, capital has been successfully preserved and the strategy is meeting its investment objectives. Returns,
volatility, drawdowns and correlation have been favourable relative to both market based and hedge fund indices.
Correlation Matrix
Aviva Investors
GCAR
ML Global HY 0.36
S&P 500 (0.29)
HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index 0.04
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May
Aviva Investors GCAR Comparative Performance
Aviva Investors GCAR HFRI RV: FI Corporate Index HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index
Jun 2011 - May 2012 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May YE 2011 YTD 2012
Aviva Investors GCAR -1.9% 1.2% -2.3% -0.6% 1.5% -0.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% -0.2% 0.3% 0.3% -1.3% 3.2% 1.8%
ML Global HY -1.1% 0.9% -4.4% -3.7% 6.0% -2.7% 2.5% 3.7% 2.9% 0.2% 0.7% -1.6% -2.8% 6.0% 3.1%
S&P 500 -1.8% -2.1% -5.7% -7.2% 10.8% -0.5% 0.9% 4.4% 4.1% 3.1% -0.7% -6.3% -6.5% 4.2% -2.6%
HFRI RV: FI Corporate Index -0.6% 0.0% -2.6% -2.3% 2.3% -1.1% 0.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% -0.8% -3.6% 3.9% 0.2%
HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index -1.6% -0.1% -3.5% -3.0% 0.8% -0.9% -0.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% -1.7% -8.4% 1.5% -7.0%
Since
Inception
20122011
Jun 2011 - May 2012
Aviva
Investors GCAR ML Global HY S&P 500
HFRI RV: FI
Corporate Index*
HFRX Global
Hedge Fund Index
Inception to Date Performance (%) 1.8% 3.1% -2.6% 0.2% -7.0%
Standard Deviation (%) 3.8% 5.3% 23.4% 5.2% 3.6%
Positive Months (%) 58% 58% 42% 55% 33%
Maximum Drawdown (%) -4.7% -10.2% -18.8% -5.4% -8.5%
Maximum Drawdown Single Month (%) -2.3% -4.4% -7.2% -2.6% -3.5%
Source: Bloomberg. * Net Return. Past performance is not indicative of future results. **There is no assurance that an objective can be achieved.
Any statement of return or other performance by an index is not a representation or assurance that the information or performance attributed to the index was accurately compiled or published; Aviva
Investors has not independently verified index-related information. Index returns are provided to represent the investment environment existing during the time periods shown. For comparison
purposes, an index is fully invested, which includes the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, but index returns do not include any transaction costs, management fees, or other costs that would
reduce returns. Composition of each separately managed account portfolio in a composite may differ from securities in the corresponding benchmark index. An index is used as a performance
benchmark only, as Aviva Investors does not attempt to replicate an index. The prior performance of an index will not be predictive of the future performance of accounts managed by Aviva
Investors. An investor may not invest directly in an index. For full information on benchmarks please refer to Appendix
ACHIEVED INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES
Delivering strong Sharpe ratios in positive months
Limiting drawdowns in negative months
12
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Positive Months Jul Oct Dec Jan Feb Apr May Average
Aviva Investors GCAR % return 1.23% 1.47% 1.47% 1.60% 1.17% 0.31% 0.26% 1.21%
Std Deviation 0.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7%
Sharpe ratio (Euribor) 1.25 1.10 2.45 2.52 2.69 0.82 0.30 1.68
2011 2012
-2.3%
-0.6% -0.7%
0.3%
-4.4%
-3.7%
-2.7%
-1.6%
-5.7%
-7.2%
-0.5%
-6.3%
-2.6% -2.3%
-1.1% -0.8%
-3.5%-3.0%
-0.9%
-1.7%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 May 2012
Aviva Investors GCAR ML Global HY S&P 500 HFRI RV: FI Corporate Index HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index
Net Exposure is monitored on a notional, market
value and “beta” adjusted basis
Beta adjusted exposure is calculated by
aggregating the betas of individual positions
Individual betas are assigned on a forward
looking basis using historical volatility ratios and
amplitude betas (observed price betas)
Ongoing calibration of individual betas to
determine changes to net positioning
Dynamically manage net positioning via single
name and index trades
Holdings are shown for illustrative purposes only. Each account is managed individually. Accordingly, holdings may vary. The inclusion of holdings information in this presentation should not
be interpreted a recommendation to buy or sell or hold any security. It should not be assumed that an investment in the securities mentioned was or will be profitable. Holdings are subject to
change.
NET EXPOSURE / LEVERAGE
13
* Net Beta Adj. Exposure = Beta adjusted XO equivalent exposure as a % of average of starting and ending period Capital Invested
Leverage is not used as a primary way to achieve
returns
High leverage will normally coincide with the need
to increase short positions considerably during
periods of market stress
Since launch given extreme spread volatility, Aviva
GCAR leverage briefly reached 2.00x in August
2011, but has been quite stable since September
2011 at around 1.25X
Leverage Net Exposure
0.00 x
0.50 x
1.00 x
1.50 x
2.00 x
2.50 x
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Long Exposure (Left Axis) Short Exposure (Left Axis)
Gross leverage (Right axis)
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Net Exposure (Market Values) Net Beta Adj. Exposure*
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
• Market neutral to net short bias
• Maintain index hedges
• Add single name and thematic sector basket hedges
• Increase net long position
• Reduce index hedges
• Take profit / unwind single name CDSs
• Increase beta of longs
• Reduce long bias
• Increase market hedges primarily via indices
• Reduce beta of longs
• Long bias
• Strategic carry trades plus event driven tactical trades
• Selective tactical shorts
• Capital structure hedging
STEADY VOL
RISING VOL
MARKET STRESS
DECLINING VOL
Due to the inherent leverage in the developed world’s financial system, the medium to long-term will be defined
by shorter exaggerated spread volatility cycles embedded within the longer traditional credit default cycle. These
spikes in volatility will often erode capital without a corresponding rise in defaults thereby placing a premium on
quantitative analysis, skillful trading and beta management techniques to complement sound fundamental
analysis.
NET EXPOSURE: RESPONSE TO VOLATILITY CYCLES
Quantitative modeling of indices
Volatility regime identification
Correlation of risk assets
Mean reversion vs. momentum
Qualitative assessment of market risk
Financial sector deleveraging led crisis
Timing and significance of headline risk
Traditional default cycle
14
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
RESEARCH PROCESS
Traditional Research
Additional
quant
research
Published information:
Financial statements
Company websites
Indentures
Industry data
Quantitative Overlay
Non-published information:
Company Meetings
Conferences
Networking
Dealer Desks
Quantitative factors:
Spread volatility
Beta analysis
Correlation analysis
Momentum vs. mean-reversion
Underlying equity and cap
structure technicals
15
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Fundamental / Valuation
Company
– Company and org structure
– Management
– Operating performance
– Cash flow generation
– Capital Structure analysis
– Liquidity analysis
– Covenant analysis
Sector
– Competitive positioning
– Industry structure / trends
Relative Value
– Comparable credits
– Within capital structure
Trade Strategy
Type of trade: strategic vs. tactical
Security selection
Liquidity assessment
Sizing of capital at risk
Identifying hedges/ratios
Stop loss levels
Target exit levels
Risk / Reward
– Identify catalysts
– Upside determination
– Quantify downside risk
– Maximum MTM loss
– Recovery values
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION / RISK MANAGEMENT
ALPHA GENERATIONIDEA GENERATION
PROPRIETARY SCREENS, BROKER SOURCED IDEAS, SECTOR THEMES, MARKET EXPERIENCE
16
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
● Extensive fundamental and technical analysis of target investment
opportunities
● Ongoing review of fundamentals and potential change in credit quality
● 5% adverse move in individual name requires a trade thesis revisit
● Determine idiosyncratic tail risk and identify potential hedges
● Diversification: 40-60 positions, but sufficient specific risk to achieve alpha
● Dynamic “beta” adjusted long/short bias monitoring
● Concentration Limits: 5% net single name, 25% net sector
● Leverage Limits: 2.5X gross
● Currency exposure hedged and embedded rate risk is managed separately
● Scenario stress testing: macro, spread, interest rate
● 25 basis point “alpha” hard stop loss
● Quick trading response to fundamental news flow
● Profit taking and stop-loss discipline
● Invest in names with actively traded capital structure
Portfolio
Level
Position
Level
Trade
Discipline
RISK MANAGEMENT
Our risk management approach emphasizes smoothing volatility while aiming to ensure that the hedges do not become a source of downside risk themselves
17
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Type of Risk Instrument
Single Name CDS
Sub Debt
Equity + Options
Investment Objective
Skill
Specific
Sector
Market
Risk Free
Credit Indices
Equity Indices
Index Options
Futures
Cash
Capital structure hedges
Minimize idiosyncratic tail risk
Maximize idiosyncratic sharpe
Hedge adverse sector risk
Thematic short sector baskets
Directional bias management
Manage embedded rate risk
HEDGING FRAMEWORK
Our hedging framework aims to ensure that the risk/return trade off is appropriate for idiosyncratic
developments and prevailing market condition. In periods of high volatility the manager has an analytical
framework to take the fund notionally back to cash
18
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Establish correlation and betas
Determine the PnL neutral hedge ratio
Determine if hedges yield higher sharpe ratios
Determine hedge ratio that maximizes return/vol
For illustrative purposes only. Holdings are shown for illustrative purposes only. Each account is managed individually. Accordingly, holdings may vary. The inclusion of holdings information in
this presentation should not be interpreted a recommendation to buy or sell or hold any security. It should not be assumed that an investment in the securities mentioned was or will be
profitable. Holdings are subject to change.
● Capital Structure trade Short MGM 5Y CDS vs. Long MGM 13% Sr Secured
CAPITAL STRUCTURE HEDGING
19
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Single Name Betas Beta Adjusted Exposure
•Calculate historical betas of individual positions
•30D volatility ratio
•10D volatility ratio
•Observed Price beta
•Assign a forward beta based on historical betas as well as qualitative assessment of inherent spread vol of the position relative to the market
• Aggregate beta adjusted exposures
• Ongoing calibration of individual betas to determine changes to net positioning
• Dynamically manage net positioning via single name and index trades
Holdings are shown for illustrative purposes only. Each account is managed individually. Accordingly, holdings may vary. The inclusion of holdings information in this presentation should not be
interpreted a recommendation to buy or sell or hold any security. It should not be assumed that an investment in the securities mentioned was or will be profitable. Holdings are subject to
change.
BETA ADJUSTED EXPOSURE
WIN 8 7/8 06/30/17
JAH 8 05/01/16
BMET 10 10/15/17
NLSN 7 3/4 10/15/18
DISH 7 1/8 02/01/16
TWTC 8 03/01/18
DAN 6 1/2 02/15/19
HCA 7 1/4 09/15/20
PXD 6 7/8 05/01/18
INTEL 8 1/2 11/01/19
INTEL 8 1/2 11/01/19
HST 5 7/8 06/15/19
HST 5 7/8 06/15/19
WIN 7 1/2 06/01/22
WPX 6 01/15/22
CHTR 6 1/2 04/30/21
CHTR 6 1/2 04/30/21
F 5 05/15/18
LVLT 8 5/8 07/15/20
FMEGR 5 5/8 07/31/19
FMEGR 5 7/8 01/31/22
MGM 11 1/8 11/15/17
0.59 0.69 0.40 0.50 946,674
2.19 0.33 0.11 0.50 948,841
0.33 0.22 0.25 0.50 567,355
0.81 0.55 0.67 0.75 871,504
0.52 0.53 0.81 0.50 765,138
0.96 0.77 0.48 0.75 855,906
0.63 0.76 0.96 0.50 561,506
0.51 0.32 0.73 0.70 1,061,488
1.17 0.76 0.51 0.25 616,797
0.63 0.60 0.83 1.00 791,961
0.63 0.60 0.83 1.00 839,709
0.86 0.58 NA 0.75 587,856
0.86 0.58 NA 0.75 587,856
0.77 0.53 1.32 1.00 581,854
1.33 0.58 0.45 0.50 744,048
0.57 0.44 1.09 0.75 1,526,429
0.57 0.44 1.09 0.75 617,129
1.11 0.47 0.77 0.50 612,783
1.04 0.93 NA 1.50 938,747
NA 0.60 NA 1.00 416,634
NA 0.44 NA 1.00 413,199
0.44 0.32 0.16 0.50 1,295,268
Vol ratio
30d
Vol ratio
10d
3m Observed
Beta
Assigned
Beta Adj. Exposure
Beta adjusted MV (Actual) MV (Beta)
US HY Holdings
Eur Eur
Bonds 27,104,951 17,043,921
Single Name CDS Longs - -
CDX HY - -
Single Name Shorts-CDX HY (2,130,672) (3,196,009)
Single Name Shorts-CDX IG (CDX HY equiv) (1,953,691) (586,107)
US Net (CDX HY equiv) 23,020,587 13,261,805
US Net (XO equiv) 23,020,587 9,283,263
Europe HY Holdings
Eur Eur
HY Bonds 10,297,948 6,173,974
Xover - -
Subfin (XO equiv) 5,259,004 3,944,253
Snrfin (XO equiv) 4,724,543 1,889,817
Main - -
Single Name Shorts-XO (6,254,661) (6,566,547)
Single Name Shorts-Main (XO equiv) (8,404,438) (3,627,189)
EU HY Net (XO equiv) 5,622,397 1,814,308
HY Portfolio Net (XO equiv) 28,642,984 11,097,571
IG Book
Eur Eur (on XO)
IG Bonds - CDX IG (XO equiv) 6,183,865 784,965
IG Bonds - Main (XO equiv) 16,710,687 4,321,263
GCAR Portfolio excl rates (XO equiv) 51,537,536 16,203,799
20
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Historical Scenario Analysis Aggregate PnL Impact
Holdings are shown for illustrative purposes only. Each account is managed individually. Accordingly, holdings may vary. The inclusion of holdings information in this presentation should not
be interpreted a recommendation to buy or sell or hold any security. It should not be assumed that an investment in the securities mentioned was or will be profitable. Holdings are subject to
change.
• Determine stress assumption based on historical cycles (Recent 2008/2009 being most relevant)
• Sensitize individual risk components, including embedded rate risk for IG
• Stress each position based on “stressed” beta assumptions
• Determine aggregate P&L impact (test a “melt-up” scenario as well)
• Calculate potential additional hedges required
Methodology Individual Position Impact
PORTFOLIO STRESS TESTING
Name EUR Notional
Z Sprd/CDS
Sprd
Assigned
Beta
Stress
Beta
Point/Spd
Impact PnL Impact
bps
impact
US HY
WIN 8 7/8 06/30/17 1,733,042 434 0.50 1.00 (8.00) (138,643) (19)
JAH 8 05/01/16 1,733,042 252 0.50 1.00 (8.00) (138,643) (19)
BMET 10 10/15/17 1,039,825 262 0.50 1.00 (8.00) (83,186) (11)
NLSN 7 3/4 10/15/18 1,039,825 374 0.75 1.50 (12.00) (124,779) (17)
DISH 7 1/8 02/01/16 1,386,434 336 0.50 1.00 (8.00) (110,915) (15)
TWTC 8 03/01/18 1,039,825 419 0.75 1.50 (12.00) (124,779) (17)
DAN 6 1/2 02/15/19 1,039,825 393 0.50 1.00 (8.00) (83,186) (11)
HCA 7 1/4 09/15/20 1,386,434 432 0.70 1.40 (11.20) (155,281) (21)
PXD 6 7/8 05/01/18 2,103,934 239 0.25 0.50 (4.00) (84,157) (11)
INTEL 8 1/2 11/01/19 1,486,716 534 1.00 2.00 (16.00) (237,875) (32)
HST 5 7/8 06/15/19 1,454,863 343 0.75 1.50 (12.00) (174,584) (23)
WIN 7 1/2 06/01/22 544,425 475 1.00 2.00 (16.00) (87,108) (12)
WPX 6 01/15/22 1,451,800 379 0.50 1.00 (8.00) (116,144) (16)
CHTR 6 1/2 04/30/21 2,683,641 392 0.75 1.50 (12.00) (322,037) (43)
F 5 05/15/18 1,158,928 259 0.50 1.00 (8.00) (92,714) (12)
LVLT 8 5/8 07/15/20 586,946 597 1.50 3.00 (24.00) (140,867) (19)
FMEGR 5 5/8 07/31/19 392,588 307 1.00 2.00 (16.00) (62,814) (8)
FMEGR 5 7/8 01/31/22 392,588 328 1.00 2.00 (16.00) (62,814) (8)
MGM 11 1/8 11/15/17 2,282,410 356 0.50 1.00 (8.00) (182,593) (24)
CDX HY XO Main EUR rates GBP rates USD rates Rate Hedges
Px Move -8.0 -15.3 -2.6 EUR GBP USD
Sprd Move 219 500 60 -50 -50 -50 -50 4.9 5.2 7.4
Additional Hedge
PnL bps XO HY MAIN
Stressed Impact 907,510 121 (5,939,748) (11,343,879) (35,033,091)
Since Inception 1,363,551 184 (8,924,582) (17,044,390) (52,637,874)
Flat PnL (2,271,061) (306) 14,864,331 28,388,268 87,670,964
IG Average duration
21
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Ris
k T
akin
g
Ma
rke
t V
ola
tilit
y
Risk on
Risk offCDS
Indices
Hedging:
Low
Volatility
High
Volatility
Equities
Portfolio risk adapts based on market conditions
Implementation of beta hedges
Indices vs. single name CDS
Qualitative assessment of market risk
Financial sector deleveraging led crisis
Traditional default cycle
Quantitative modeling of macro indices
Regime switching model
Mean reversion vs. momentum/trending
Correlation of risk assets
Volatility Regime Identification Volatility Regime Management
For illustrative purposes only.
VOLATILITY REGIME MANAGEMENT
22
Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
BIOGRAPHY
Keith Kelsall, CFAClient Portfolio Manager
Joined Investment Industry in 1990
Main responsibilitiesKeith is the client portfolio manager for convertible bonds and credit strategies.
Experience and qualificationsKeith joined Aviva Investors in 2009. Prior to joining Aviva Keith worked at Barclays Global Investors as a senior fixed income product specialist. Prior to this position Keith was a senior fixed income portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments and a fixed income portfolio manager at Fiduciary Trust. Keith began his investment career as a fixed income analyst at Deutsche Bank.Keith holds a BA in economics, accounting and financial management from Sheffield university. Keith is also a CFA charterholder.
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Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Mark WautonHead of Credit
After a six year career in the Army, Mark joined the investment industry in 1986
Main responsibilitiesMark is responsible for our high alpha capabilities in investment grade, high yield and credit absolute return fixed income capabilities, while also ensuring that we deliver for more traditional active mandates.
Experience and qualificationsMark joined Aviva Investors in April 2009. Prior to joining Aviva Investors Mark was Head of Strategic Credit trading at ABN AMRO. Mark has held Head of Fixed Income roles at Commerz International and Dunedin Fund Managers as well as Head of European Fixed Income at UBS Asset Management. He also co-managed the AlphaGen Credit Hedge Fund at Gartmore.
Mark successfully completed the AIIMR in 1994 and is now an ASIP. He holds an MSc in Investment Analysis from Stirling University.
BIOGRAPHY
Jiten Joshi Head of Offshore Research
Main responsibilitiesJiten leads a team of analysts to support the London-based credit team. Jiten is responsible for supporting and enhancing the London team’s fundamental credit research capabilities as well as providing technical and risk analysis.
Experience and qualificationsJiten was a special situations analyst at Pali Capital responsible for idea generation across the capital structure of stressed and distressed credits. Prior to Pali, he was an Executive Director responsible for co-managing the US exposure of a global prop desk at ÅBN AMRO. Prior to ABN, he was part of a team managing the Gartmore AlphaGen Credit Hedge Fund for 3 years. Prior to joining Gartmore, Jiten was a Vice President and senior analyst covering Cable, Media and Energy for investment grade, high yield and distressed securities at JP Morgan Fleming Asset Management. Jiten’s sell side experience includes High Yield Origination at Chase Securities and Restructuring at Houlihan Lokey. He holds an MBA in Finance from the Columbia Business School and a BA in Economics from Columbia University.
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Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
Dinesh PawarHead of Credit Flow Trading
Main responsibilitiesDinesh is responsible for credit flow trading and has over 10 years of investment experience. Dinesh has an overview of all the trading strategies within each of the credit portfolios and provides analysis on hedging, trading tactics, and the use of derivatives.
Experience and qualificationsPrior to joining Aviva Investors he was the Market Risk Manager for Deutsche Bank financial markets responsible for managing the banks Loan Book, Loan Trading, Credit Origination and Global Risk Syndicate. Prior to this Dinesh was a Director and worked at ABN AMRO as part of the Credit prop team focusing on EU and GBP credits. Before joining ABN AMRO, Dinesh was a Credit Trader for the AlphaGen Credit Hedge fund, and was the co-manager of the Gartmore High Yield Retail fund. Dinesh has a BA Hons in Business Finance and an MSc in Banking and International Finance from Cass Business School
INDEX INFORMATION
Property
&
Casualty
Insurance
Life
Insurance &
Annuity
– ML Global HY - Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index tracks the performance of USD, CAD, GBP and EUR denominated below Investment Grade corporate debt. Constituents are weighted based on their current amount outstanding.
– S&P 500 - Standard and Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks.
– HFRI RV FI Corporate Index - HFRI RV FI Corporate Index includes strategies in which the investment thesis is predicated on realization of a spread between related instruments in which one or multiple components of the spread is a corporate fixed income instrument. Strategies employ an investment process designed to isolate attractive opportunities between a variety of fixed income instruments, typically realizing an attractive spread between multiple corporate bonds or between a corporate and risk free government bond.
– HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index - The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. It is comprised of all eligible hedge fund strategies; including but not limited to convertible arbitrage, distressed securities, equity hedge, equity market neutral, event driven, macro, merger arbitrage, and relative value arbitrage. The strategies are asset weighted based on the distribution of assets in the hedge fund industry.
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Global Credit Absolute Return Fund
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Property
&
Casualty
Insurance
Life
Insurance &
Annuity
Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (Aviva
Investors) as at 31 May 2012.
The content of this document does not purport to be representational or provide warranties above and beyond
those contained in the Prospectus and subscription documentation of the Fund. The Prospectus and the
subscription document contain the full terms, conditions, representations and warranties in respect of the Fund.
Nothing in this document shall be construed as forming any part of those terms, conditions, representations or
warranties.
Any opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and they should not be relied upon
as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is
intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature.
The value of an investment in the fund can go down as well as up and can fluctuate in response to changes in
exchange rates. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
The distribution and offering of shares may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This document should not
be taken as a recommendation or offer by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to
any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation.
Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, registered in England No. 1151805. Registered Office: No. 1 Poultry,
London EC2R 8EJ. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority and a member of the
Investment Management Association.
Contact us at Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ.
Compliance ref: 12/0403/300912
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Global Credit Absolute Return Fund