GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM December 5-7, 2007 G LOBA L C ONSULTING L EADERS S YMPOSIUM...
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Transcript of GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM December 5-7, 2007 G LOBA L C ONSULTING L EADERS S YMPOSIUM...
GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM
December 5-7, 2007
GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM
December 5-7, 2007
GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM
December 5-7, 2007
History of GlobalizationUnited States
Agriculture, Mining
Activity
Year Trade as % of Output % Economic Activity % Employment
1900 17.0 20.8 40.2
1910 14.1 20.3 34.4
1920 23.8 18.5 30.4
1930 11.0 12.6 28.4
1940 9.0 12.0 19.2
1960 10.1 7.8 9.1
• Decline in globalization corresponds to decline in commodity production & rise of the complex manufacturing
• Industry composition is critical to impact of globalization
GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM
December 5-7, 2007
Trends in Employment –United States
Year Agriculture, Manufacturing Services
mining
• 1960 8.8 26.1 65.1
• 1970 5.1 24.8 70.1
• 1980 4.4 22.1 73.5
• 1990 3.3 18.0 78.7
• 1998 3.0 15.8 81.2
GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM
December 5-7, 2007
Productivity Growth In the Services(Basic Issues)
*Growth in Achieved Potential far outweighs growth in Potential as a source of
Productivity Growth*
EVIDENCE
- Large differences among units in Best vs. Average practice
- Episodic nature of productivity growth/ cost reduction (no gain -> high gain -> slippage)
- Higher vs. Lower Level gaps in Productivity growth
- Experience in manufacturing
- Special instances of potential revealed
- Case studies (no significant labor, capital, R & D inputs)
GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM
December 5-7, 2007
Managerial, Professional 1983 2001 Change
Managers, Executives 10,772 20,338 +89%
Teachers, Librarians 4,368 6,065 +39%
Nurses, Health Profiles 1,900 3,052 +61%
Scientists 820 2,685 +227%
Writers, Artists, Entertainers 1,675 2,336 +39%
Architects, Engineers 1,675 2,336 +39%
Social Worker, Soc. Sci
Works 1,092 1,903 +72%
Doctors, Dentists 735 1,090 + 48%
Lawyers 651 966 +48%
Total 23,592 41,894 +78%
GLOBAL CONSULTING LEADERS SYMPOSIUM
December 5-7, 2007
An Aide on that Giant Sucking Sound of Jobs Going to Mexico
Manufacturing Jobs (% of changes 1980-91)
Consumption of Manufacturing in U.S. +31%
Production of Manufactures in U.S. +25%
Lose of demand to Net Imports 6%
Production of Manufacturers in U.S. +25%
Manufacturing employment in U.S. (9%)
Loss of jobs to Productivity Growth 34%
Fraction of Jobs in Manufacturing Lost Overseas:
6% / (34% + 6%)= 15%