Global Competition John Connors Bozeman July 20131.
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Transcript of Global Competition John Connors Bozeman July 20131.
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Bozeman July 2013 1
Global CompetitionJohn Connors
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Agenda
• Global Context• America’s Big Challenges• Big Opportunities• Texas vs. California – Two paths and a choice• Montana
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Global Context
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A Look back
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Bozeman Keynote 5
Growth Rates Matter – A lot!
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Bozeman Keynote 6
American IT = Flat World
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7
China’s Rise – Factory to the world
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Bozeman Keynote 8
R&D – Race for the Future
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Bozeman Keynote 9
STEM – Asia Serious; U.S. – Needs Immigrants
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Bozeman Keynote 10
Source: International Monetary Fund, United Nations, and World Bank
A World Transformed
1980 1990 2000 20100
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Average Values of GDP (PPP)
United States China Japan India Germany Brazil France
Year
GDP
Billi
ons
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Bozeman Keynote 11
Shenzen- 1970 vs. 2012
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Bozeman Keynote 12
1980 vs. 2013 Top Market Cap Companies
1980 $ in BillionsRank Company Name Market Cap
1 IBM $39.6 2 AT&T Technologies $35.7 3 Exxon Mobil $34.9 4 Standard Oil of Indiana $23.4 5 Schlumberger $22.3 6 Shell Oil $18.0 7 Mobil $17.2
8 Standard Oil of California $17.0 9 Atlantic Richfield $15.0 10 General Electric $13.9
2013 $ in BillionsRank Company Name Market Cap
1 IBC Bank China $429.6 2 Exxon Mobil $414.3 3 Apple $400.5 4 Google $305.1 5 Microsoft $298.4 6 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. $288.9 7 Chevron $239.6
8 Royal Dutch Shell $221.0 9 PetroChina $219.5 10 Nestle $217.7
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America’s Big Challenges
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Bozeman Keynote 14
Astounding Federal Profligacy
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Bozeman Keynote 15
Federal Spending vs. Median Income
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Bozeman Keynote 16
U.S. Debt Per Person
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Bozeman Keynote 17
Federal Spending as a Household
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Bozeman Keynote 18
Interest on Debt : How Many States Larger?
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Bozeman Keynote 19
Average Interest Rate by Decade – Time Bomb!
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Bozeman Keynote 20
Growth and Energy : 1.0 Correlation
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Bozeman Keynote 21
Energy Reality vs Current Policy
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Bozeman Keynote 22
World’s Highest Corporate Tax Rate
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Bozeman Keynote 23
Regulation Rampage • 2012 Federal Register—the official directory of regulation—78,961 pages ;1986 - 44,812
pages; 1936 - 2,620• Growth in US Economy 1936- 2012 = 12x (inflation adjusted); Federal Register growth 30x• Last time regulation was cut was under Ronald Reagan - number of pages in the Federal
Register fell by 31%. Surprise! Real GDP grew by 30% in that same period. Lasted just eight years.
• Since 1993, 81,883 new rules have been issued. In the past 10 years, the "final rules" issued by our 63 federal departments, agencies and commissions have outnumbered laws passed by Congress 223 to 1.
• Right now there are 4,062 new regulations at various stages of implementation, of which 224 are deemed "economically significant," i.e., their economic impact will exceed $100 million.
• The cost of all this - , $1.8 trillion annually—that's on top of the federal government's $3.5 trillion in outlays, so it is equivalent to an invisible 65% surcharge on your federal taxes, or nearly 12% of GDP
• Costs of regulation for small businesses (those with fewer than 20 employees) are 36% higher per employee than they are for bigger firms
• http://americanactionforum.org/rodeo-database
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Bozeman Keynote 24
Academic Progress Non-Existent
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Bozeman Keynote 25
Labor Productivity Waning
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Opportunity Destroyed
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Job Growth Way Below Trend
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Bozeman Keynote 28
Competitiveness Steep Decline
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Big Opportunities
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Waves of Innovation Coming
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Bozeman Keynote 31
USA - Energy Superpower
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Bozeman Keynote 32
Major Energy Cost Advantage Today
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33
Large Scale Re-Shoring at Hand
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Bozeman Keynote 34
Spending vs. Tax Revenue – Still Time to Stop Permanent Decline
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Bozeman Keynote 35
Growth Only Cure
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Bozeman Keynote 36
Texas vs. California – A Real Live Laboratory
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Bozeman Keynote 37
Capital Flows to Where it is Treated Well
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Bozeman Keynote 38
More Debt = Less Opportunity
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Bozeman Keynote 39
More Wealth Creation
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Bozeman Keynote 40
More Jobs
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Bozeman Keynote 41
Less Misery
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Montana
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Bozeman Keynote 43
MT - Decent Position for Breakout
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Bozeman Keynote 44
Gross State Product
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012$0
$10,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$70,000,000,000
Montana North Dakota Idaho South Dakota Wyoming
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Bozeman Keynote 45
Top States for Business – What Matters
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Bozeman Keynote 46
Global Reading Performance
Montana
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Bozeman Keynote 47
Global Math Performance
Montana
United States Average
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Montana Social Capital
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Bozeman Keynote 55
Thomas Sowell