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The ClimateInstitute

Global Climate Leadership Review 2013

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“The key message from this review is important and clear: a great competitive margin in the world is going to be over carbon and energy productivity. Countries that slip behind…are going to damage themselves and their competitiveness and prosperity in the coming years.”

Lord Nicholas SternChair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment,

London School of Economics and author of the seminal 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change

Global Climate Leadership Review 2013

This presentation summarises The Climate Institute’s report, Global Climate Leadership Review 2013. It provides an overview of Australian climate policy in a global context, as well as elaborating on the implications of global climate diplomacy and domestic actions for Australia. The lead author for this content is Erwin Jackson, Deputy CEO of The Climate Institute, with contributions from other staff and using research from Vivid Economics.

Images: Michael Hall, Creative Fellow of The Climate Institute

March 2013

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Megatrends towards greater international action on climate change continue but at an insufficient pace. For example, weighted average effective carbon prices on energy in OECD countries are currently PPP* $34/tonne and global clean energy investments, particularly in Asia, remain high and reached US$270 billion in 2012.

Key Findings

Even with current commitments, the world is still on the path to a global temperature rise of 3-4°C, well beyond the risky “guardrail” of 2°C.

The Climate Institute/GE Low-Carbon Competitiveness Index indicates that France, Japan, China, South Korea and the United Kingdom are currently best positioned to prosper in the global low-carbon economy.

China’s dramatic rise up the Low-Carbon Competitiveness Index is the result not only of its major investment in clean energy, but also growth in its high technology exports. China hosted just under half of total global public equity investment in clean energy.

Australia has seen a fragile reversal of its score on the Index. However, Indonesia improved more to overtake Australia, which is now 17th in the G20.

*National currencies, other than US dollars, have been converted to international dollars or purchasing power parities (PPP).

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The momentum for climate action has shifted away

from Europe and the United States toward the emerging

economies of Asia.

One of the many wind farms in the Hexi Corridor, in remote Gansu province. Although it is the world’s biggest CO2 emitter, China is also erecting 36 new wind turbines a day and building a robust new electricity grid to supply the cities of the east with renewable energy from the deserts of the west.

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The climate system will continue to confront us with the risks of our current economic dependence on pollution.

Global Trends

Threats/Impacts

• Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are now at their highest levels in at least 15 million years,40 per cent above pre-industrial levels.

• Countries around the world were subjected to a year of unusually severe droughts, floods, heat waves and fires.

As the World Bank warned in late 2012:

“The projected impacts (of 4oC global warming) on water availability, ecosystems, agriculture, and human health could lead to large-scale displacement of populations and have adverse consequences for human security and economic and trade systems.”

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“...it is the countries that prioritise green energy that will secure the biggest share of jobs and growth in a global low-carbon sector set to be worth $4 trillion by 2015."

David Cameron, Prime Minister, United Kingdom, 2013

Global Trends

Opportunities/Solutions• Asia is on track to replace Europe as the world’s

largest clean energy investment region, with more than one third of the world’s clean energy investment in 2012.

• Progress at the international negotiations and on the level of national policies has been significant but insufficient.

• To keep warming below 2oC, three key conditions need to be met:

• reduced energy demand through significantly greater efficiency,

• widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies and renewable energy \

• and action to reduce emissions by all major emitters.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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Policy Snapshot 2012“In 2012 developing countries passed twice as many green laws as rich ones did.”

The Economist, January 19, 2013

MAYSouth Korea passes legislation to launch an ETS in 2015. The UK’s Energy Bill 2012 bans new conventional coal plants.

JULYAustralia’s carbon price comes into effect.South Korea announces that its ETS will not accept international offset credits until after 2020.

JANUARYChina’s central government orders seven cities and provinces to impose limits on their emissions ahead of pilot emissions trading schemes (ETS).

MARCHThe US releases a draft carbon pollution standard for new fossil-fuel power stations that would require new coal plants to incorporate carbon capture and storage.

SEPTEMBERThe EU Parliament passes a binding energy efficiency directive

OCTOBERNorway announces that it will nearly double its carbon tax on offshore oil and gas operations

NOVEMBERUS: The first auctions occur under California’s emission trading scheme, with units trading at US$11 per tonne.

DECEMBERBahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates pledge to reduce carbon emissions as part of a strategy to diversify their economies.

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Policy Snapshot 2012

For a full list of policy developments in 2012 see the report:

www.climateinstitute.org.au/global-climate-leadership-review-2013.html

Or visit the interactive Global Climate Action Map which allows you to track and compare national policies:

globalclimateactionmap.climateinstitute.org.au

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Who’s leading the low-carbon economy?

In 2009, The Climate Institute commissioned leading London-based analysts Vivid Economics to measure and rank the low carbon competitiveness of G20 countries.

The resulting Climate Institute/GE Low-Carbon Competitiveness Index has been updated this year using publicly available 2010 data.

Why is low-carbon competitiveness important?

In order to have a decent chance of limiting global warming to 2°C, in the absence of carbon capture and storage technology, the IEA estimates that only 1/3 of fossil fuel reserves can be used.

In a world where we succeed in limiting temperatures rises, the right to emit carbon will become a scarce and valuable resource and prosperity will depend on generating maximum value for each tonne of carbon emitted.

Global fossil fuel reserves

What portion of fossil fuels can be used

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Who’s leading the low-carbon economy?

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Who’s leading the low-carbon economy?2008 v 2010

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Who’s leading the low-carbon economy?

+ France, Japan, China, South Korea and the UK are currently best positioned to prosper in the low carbon economy. France retains the top ranking it received in the previous assessment. Japan, South Korea and the UK have also maintained similar scores and positions.

+ China has leapt into the top five best prepared nations. China’s dramatic rise up the Index to third place is the result not only of its major investment in clean energy, but also growth in its high technology exports .

+ The United States has fallen behind. One of six countries whose absolute score has worsened since 2008, the US has fallen behind by almost as much as China has leapt ahead, and is now in 11th place, down from ninth in 2008. This drop is due in large part to declining high-tech exports and a major surge in its reliance on air freight.

+ Australia has slightly improved its score, but not its ranking. Slight improvements across all three categories have not been enough to prevent Australia being overtaken by Indonesia and consequently falling from 16th to 17th place.

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China has leapt into the top five best prepared nations for

competitiveness in the low-carbon global economy.

Workers at the Goldwind wind turbine assembly plant in Gansu province. Goldwind is the largest manufacturer of wind turbines in China and the second largest globally.

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Emerging Trends

• Trends in clean energy benefit Asian economies: A widespread reallocation of investment in renewable energy outlined in the introduction has contributed to an increase in low-carbon competitiveness in Asian economies and a fall in low-carbon competitiveness elsewhere.

• The financial crisis reduced the carbon competitiveness of Western economies:The negative effect of the financial crisis has been more severe in developed countries and so the crisis has contributed to the catch-up of developing countries.

• High performing extractive economies reinvest resource income: Some of the G20 economies are more dependent on generating income through the depletion of non-renewable resources than others. In 2010, nine countries in the G20 – including Australia - received more than four per cent of their national income from extracting non-renewable resources. Extractive economies have an opportunity to increase their future competitiveness by channelling income derived from non-renewable resources into investment in education and physical capital, including investment into renewables.

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Case Studies

Japan’s focus on energy efficiency

As an energy importer Japan has a strong incentive to minimise its fuel bills. The country’s ongoing focus on improving energy efficiency is an important factor in its high ranking on the Low-Carbon Competitiveness Index.

Norway’s reinvestment of oil income

Since discovering oil in the 1960s, Norway has taken a range of steps to ensure that the income from its resource extraction is used to benefit its citizens over the long term.

Last year, the carbon tax on offshore oil and gas operations was roughly doubled to PPP $42 per tonne. This additional revenue will be used to promote renewable energy investment and emissions reduction domestically and globally.

France’s policy mix

France’s climate policy is linked to that of the EU. By 2020, the EU plans to achieve 20 per cent of its energy consumption from renewable energy, improve energy efficiency by 20 per cent and reduce emissions by 20-30 per cent on 1990 levels.

France has also set domestic policies to reduce greenhouse emissions by 75 per cent by 2050. These include a mandatory energy efficiency scheme, renewable energy targets and incentives, efficient building regulations, tax breaks and loans for energy efficient buildings, financing and upgrading of public housing, tax credits for low emitting cars, tax penalties for high emission cars and substantial investment in high speed rail networks.

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Countries that did well in the index rankings are those who have recognised the inextricable link between economic and resource security and climate change policies and are acting accordingly.

A solar farm under construction and near completion, in the remote Gansu Province, China. The government is working towards a plan to supply 15 per cent of the country’s energy from alternative and renewable sources by 2020.

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Australia’s low-carbon competitiveness has improved slightly since 2008.

How is Australia doing?

• Australia’s performance has slightly improved in all three Index categories, but progress is fragile

• Improvement is driven by an increase in high technology exports and an unusual increase in the energy efficiency of the transport sector, in part this is likely to be being driven by higher fuel prices shifting consumer preferences towards more efficient modes of transport.

• Australia’s public equity investment in clean energy in 2010 totalled US $250 million. Compared with other countries this was a relatively small amount: less than 1/10 of public equity raised in the United States, though higher than South Korea, Brazil and France.

• This data, however, does not include the impact of the Clean Energy Future laws that took effect in 2012. These have the potential to significantly improve the nation’s low- carbon competitiveness as carbon pricing promotes low-carbon investment and discourages allocation of resources to high-carbon technologies and activities. With the Clean Energy Future package carbon productivity broadly keeps pace with global trends.

A child’s bicycle is the only recognisable item left in what was once a family home in Tasmania. Over 25,000 hectares were burnt in the Forcett region alone, during one of more than 40 fires that were ignited in Tasmania during the January 2013 heat wave.

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Are we going it alone?

Australia’s carbon price of $AU 23 comes in near the bottom of the list of 34 OECD countries.

Australia is not alone on pricing carbon. OECD research published in January 2013 found that 29 of its member countries have higher ‘effective’ carbon prices than Australia. In fact carbon pollution – whether through a tax, market mechanism, or other policy – is priced in every OECD country.

The weighted average of all OECD countries is EUR 27 ($AU 35) per tonne. Australia’s carbon price of $AU 23 comes in near the bottom of the list of 34 OECD countries.

Source: OECD, Taxing Energy Use: A Graphical Analysis, 28 January, 2013

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The Doha Climate SummitDomestic action and international agreements are mutually reinforcing.

The action that countries take to reduce emissions and drive low-carbon competitiveness does not occur in isolation of cooperation between other nations.

The UN Doha Climate Summit in 2012 was an opportunity to finalise the negotiation of the 2007 Bali Action Plan and begin its full implementation. It was also an opportunity to finalise amendments to the Kyoto Protocol that would see the beginning of new binding commitments for some developed countries. In achieving these outcomes Doha can now help governments focus on finalising the post-2020 binding agreement in 2015.

The years 2013 and 2014 will focus international scrutiny on Australia commits to build global ambition. In Doha, countries agreed: • Australia and other developed countries should demonstrate how they will scale up investments to

deliver the agreed US$100 billion in public and private sector finance by 2020. • In 2014, Kyoto countries must revisit their national targets and communicate to other governments

their intention or not to increase ambition. This will occur in parallel with international review of the adequacy of actions to meet the goal of avoiding 2°C. This will include key inputs from groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which releases its Fifth Assessment of the science, impacts and economics of climate change over the 2013-14 period.

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Bringing it home

“Australia’s fragile improvement in low carbon competitiveness has occurred against a backdrop of delicate but important progress in UN climate negotiations, cuts in clean energy costs, growth in global carbon pricing and other policies and continuing strong investment in clean energy.”

John Connor, CEO, The Climate Institute

Three key conclusions can be drawn from the analysis provided in the Global Climate Leadership Review 2013:

1. Policy implementation to reduce emissions and drive low pollution investment around the world continues. Many countries recognise that reducing their dependence on high emission industries is in their economic self-interest.

2. The engine room of clean energy investment and carbon policies is shifting to Asia, particularly China.

3. Australia’s sliding carbon competitiveness had a fragile reversal between 2008 and 2010 but the next few years will be critical to sustaining this trend and our historical legacy in crucial global climate negotiations due to conclude in 2015.

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Bringing it home

Building national low-carbon productivityAustralia has not been not well prepared to remain competitive in a world moving to constrain carbon emissions and encourage clean energy. The Clean Energy Future package is a break from decades of delay and inaction and provides a platform for ongoing economic growth. There are signs that the package is already having an impact on emissions in the power sector

Policy readiness for greater ambition and cooperationIn 2012, both major parties supported Australia making a legally binding international commitment to reduce national emissions over the period from 2013-2020. With Coalition support Australia included its full bipartisan-supported target range of 5 per cent to 25 per cent reductions on 2000 levels by 2020 into the Kyoto Protocol. From 2013 to 2015, whoever wins government will be under intense domestic and international scrutiny on performance against these commitments.

Australian leadership in 2013Addressing climate change in Australia and globally is a marathon not a sprint. Stable and long-term policy settings are needed to deliver investment and growth in the industries central to Australia’s long-term prosperity.

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Photo EssaySince the last Global Review, The Climate Institute has launched its first Creative Fellowship with acclaimed photographer Michael Hall. All images in the report and this presentation (except the one of impacts of bushfires in Tasmania) are part of a photo essay documenting climate change, its impacts and solutions, in China. Michael shot this work in late 2012.

For more information, visit www.climateinstitute.org.au/fellowships.html.

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Videos

For more information, visit www.youtube.com/theclimateinstitute.

Lord Nicholas Stern,Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, shares his thoughts on the 2013 Low-Carbon Competitiveness Index.

Ben Waters, Director of ecomagination for GE Australia and New Zealand, discusses the implications of the emerging low-carbon economy for business.

John Connor, CEO of The Climate Institute, discusses the broader implications of the findings for Australia and why The Climate Institute has undertaken the research.

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More information

Visit www.climateinstitute.org.au/global-climate-leadership-review-2013.html

Or connect with us on Facebook or Twitter for the latest news on global climate action…

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This project was conducted with support from GE. The help of the British High Commission and Vivid Economics is also acknowledged.