Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Change and and CarbonCarbon

Mahesh Kumar SinghMahesh Kumar Singh

Mitja KaligaricMitja Kaligaric

Szent István University, Gödöllő, HungarySzent István University, Gödöllő, Hungary

University of Maribor, SloveniaUniversity of Maribor, Slovenia

The Carbon PrincipleThe Carbon Principle

• Why are the laws of nature so ‘finely-tuned’ to make life possible?

• Behind this question lies a very surprising realization that , though life in our universe only developed billions of years after the big bang, the world was pregnant with that possibility from the very start.

Carbon Principle (Cont.)Carbon Principle (Cont.)

• By that I mean, that the laws of nature had to take from the start exactly the form they do for you and me to have been able to be here on Earth today. Otherwise things would have gone wrong that would have made the history of the universe boring and sterile. I am sure you know that this unexpected collection of scientific insights has been given the name of the Anthropic Principle. (A better name would be ‘the Carbon Principle’)

Origin of CarbonOrigin of Carbon

Chemistry of CarbonChemistry of Carbon

• To get to the point of the Anthropic Principle, just think about the stars.

• The main role the stars have to perform is to produce the raw materials of life in their nuclear furnaces. The chemistry of life is the chemistry of carbon and there is only one place in the whole universe where carbon can be made, namely inside stars. We are all made of stardust.

Active star FormationActive star Formation and and Supernova remnants: we are Supernova remnants: we are made from the elements expelled during these stellar made from the elements expelled during these stellar

explosionsexplosions • 1

Carbon CycleCarbon Cycle

Global outgoing longwave heat Global outgoing longwave heat radiationradiation

Global reflected shortwave solar Global reflected shortwave solar radiationradiation

Why does climate matter?Why does climate matter?

Climate consists of averages and extremes of

• hot & cold

• wet & dry

• snowpack & snowmelt

• winds & storm tracks

• ocean currents & upwellings

and not just how much & where, but also when.

Evidence that climate is changingEvidence that climate is changing

Observations over recent decades also show…

• Evaporation & rainfall are increasing;

• More of the rainfall is occurring in downpours;

• Permafrost is melting;

• Corals are bleaching;

• Glaciers are retreating;

• Sea ice is shrinking;

• Sea level is rising;

• Wildfires are increasing;

• Storm & flood damages are soaring.

Bleached coral head: Bleaching occurs when high water temperature kills the living organisms in the coral, leaving behind only the calcium carbonate skeleton.

Soon Americans will have to settle for a Non-Glacier National Park.

Satellite photo of smoke from S California wildfires, October 2003

So, global climate is changing…So, global climate is changing…

• in the direction of average warming,• accompanied by many phenomena consistent

with this,• and at pace that is unusual in the recent

historical record.

But we know climate has sometimes changedquite abruptly in the past from natural causes.

Is it really humans who are responsible forwhat is happening now? Or is it nature?What is the evidence?

The main natural and human phenomena The main natural and human phenomena affecting climate are known.affecting climate are known.

• NATURAL INFLUENCES ON GLOBAL CLIMATE– variations in the energy output of the Sun

– variations in the Earth’s orbit and tilt

– continental drift

– changes in atmospheric composition from volcanoes, biological activity, weathering of rocks

• HUMAN INFLUENCES ON GLOBAL CLIMATE– emission of “greenhouse gases” (GHG) as a result of

deforestation, agricultural practices, fossil-fuel burning

– emission of particulate matter from agricultural burning, cultivation, fossil-fuel burning,

– alteration of Earth’s surface reflectivity by deforestation, desertification

– cloud formation by aircraft contrails

T changes for 2x CO2Computer simulations performed by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab to compare the warming expected under a doubling of CO2 from the pre-industrial level with the warming expected from a quadrupling.

Note that N hemisphere mid-continent average warming in the 4xCO2 world is 15-25°F!

This is a roasted world.

AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

I wish to thank Prof. Márton Jolankai for his valuable advice and comments for this presentation work.

Thank YouMahesh K. SinghSzent István UniversityGödöllő, HUNGARY