I S A A A

Global Adoption, ImpactGlobal Adoption, Impact and Future Prospects and Future Prospects

of Biotech/GM Crops of Biotech/GM Crops

Nairobi, Kenya, May, 2008 Nairobi, Kenya, May, 2008

Global Adoption, ImpactGlobal Adoption, Impact and Future Prospects and Future Prospects

of Biotech/GM Crops of Biotech/GM Crops

Nairobi, Kenya, May, 2008 Nairobi, Kenya, May, 2008

byby

Clive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of DirectorsClive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of Directors

International Service for the Acquisition

of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA)

http://www.isaaa.org

byby

Clive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of DirectorsClive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of Directors

International Service for the Acquisition

of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA)

http://www.isaaa.org

I S A A A

ISAAA

Not-for-Profit Charity, co-sponsored by public and private sector organizations Mission of ISAAA :• Share knowledge on crop biotechnology so that the global community is more well informed about the attributes and potential of the new technologies

• Contribute to poverty alleviation by increasing crop productivity and income generation, particularly for resource-poor farmers, and to bring about a safer environment and more sustainable agricultural development, through crop biotechnology.

•

For more information, visit http://www.isaaa.orgFor more information, visit http://www.isaaa.org

I S A A A

• The Rockefeller FoundationThe Rockefeller Foundation, USA, USA –– associated associated with the green revolution that saved 1 billion people with the green revolution that saved 1 billion people from hunger in the 1960s, largely in Asia from hunger in the 1960s, largely in Asia

• Ibercaja, SpainIbercaja, Spain – the fourth largest bank in – the fourth largest bank in Spain based in the maize growing area of the Spain based in the maize growing area of the country where Bt maize is successfully grown – the country where Bt maize is successfully grown – the largest area of Bt maize in the EU largest area of Bt maize in the EU

• FondazioneFondazione Bussolera-Branca, Bussolera-Branca, ItalyItaly – –supports the sharing of knowledge to aid global supports the sharing of knowledge to aid global society to make knowledge-based decisions about society to make knowledge-based decisions about biotech crops biotech crops

Source: Clive James, 2008Source: Clive James, 2008

The Three Philanthropic Co-sponsors of The Three Philanthropic Co-sponsors of the ISAAA 2007 Reportthe ISAAA 2007 Report

I S A A A

• NO SINGLE APPROACHNO SINGLE APPROACH will allow food, feed, and fiber production will allow food, feed, and fiber production to be doubled to be doubled SUSTAINABLYSUSTAINABLY by 2050 for 9 billion people by 2050 for 9 billion people

• Conventional crop improvement ALONE will not double crop Conventional crop improvement ALONE will not double crop production by 2050 – production by 2050 – GM/BIOTECH CROPS NOT A PANACEAGM/BIOTECH CROPS NOT A PANACEA but but importantimportant

• Successful strategy must have MULTIPLE APPROACHES that Successful strategy must have MULTIPLE APPROACHES that address all the principal issues that include:address all the principal issues that include:

• Population Stabilization Population Stabilization

• Improved food distribution systemsImproved food distribution systems

• A Technology Component is A Technology Component is ESSENTIAL ESSENTIAL-- A crop -- A crop improvement improvement STRATEGY THAT INTEGRATES the BEST of STRATEGY THAT INTEGRATES the BEST of CONVENTIONAL AND the BEST of BIOTECH CONVENTIONAL AND the BEST of BIOTECH to optimize to optimize productivity and productivity and CONTRIBUTECONTRIBUTE to food feed and fiber to food feed and fiber securitysecurity

A Food, Feed, & Fiber Strategy to A Food, Feed, & Fiber Strategy to Double Global Production by 2050 Double Global Production by 2050

I S A A ASelected International Cereal PricesUS$/tonne

Source: FAO, April, 2008

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

2006 2007 2008

Rice

Wheat

Maize

I S A A A

• Food safetyFood safety – food as safe, or safer, than conventional – food as safe, or safer, than conventional

• Environmental ImpactEnvironmental Impact

•Gene FlowGene Flow -conservation of biodiversity- coexistence -conservation of biodiversity- coexistence

•Effect on non-target organismsEffect on non-target organisms – Target specific tech – Target specific tech

•Management of Bt resistanceManagement of Bt resistance – durability - a challenge – durability - a challenge

• Ownership of the technology Ownership of the technology

•Role of the Private sectorRole of the Private sector, , IPRIPR

• Ethical considerationsEthical considerations

• Above issues impact on Above issues impact on INTERNATIONALINTERNATIONAL TRADE TRADE

Acceptance Issues related Acceptance Issues related to Biotech Crops to Biotech Crops

I S A A A

Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops, 2007:by Country

I S A A A

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2007:Industrial and Developing Countries (Million Hectares)

Total

Industrial

Developing

Source: Clive James, 2008

I S A A A

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

666 million hectares

= 1.6 billion acres

M Acres

1729

1235

988

494

741

247

0

1482

1976

Accumulated Global Area of Biotech Crops,1996 to 2007 (Million Hectares)

Source: Clive James, 2008

I S A A A

• 2007 -12th year of commercialization of biotech crops

• 114.3 million hectares planted globally 12.3 mill ha increase = + 12% - 2nd highest in 5 years

• 114.3 m. has in 23 countries, Chile and Poland new countries in 2007 – 20% of area stacked- 2 or 3 genes

• 12 mill. biotech farmers, - 90% or 11 million are

resource-poor farmers – 1st time to exceed 10 million small farmers in dev. countries - 12 dev. countries

• Of 6.5 billion global population 55%, equivalent to 3.6 billion, lived in the 23 biotech countries in 2007 Source: Clive James 2008

• 2007 -12th year of commercialization of biotech crops

• 114.3 million hectares planted globally 12.3 mill ha increase = + 12% - 2nd highest in 5 years

• 114.3 m. has in 23 countries, Chile and Poland new countries in 2007 – 20% of area stacked- 2 or 3 genes

• 12 mill. biotech farmers, - 90% or 11 million are

resource-poor farmers – 1st time to exceed 10 million small farmers in dev. countries - 12 dev. countries

• Of 6.5 billion global population 55%, equivalent to 3.6 billion, lived in the 23 biotech countries in 2007 Source: Clive James 2008

2007 Highlights -- 2007 Highlights -- Area continues to soarArea continues to soar

I S A A A

M Acres

346

247

198

99

148

49

0

297

396

91

64%0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Soybean Cotton Maize Canola

ConventionalBiotech

35

43%

148

24%

27

20%

Source: Clive James, 2007

Global Adoption Rates (%) for PrincipalBiotech Crops (Million Hectares) 2007

I S A A A

• From 1996 to 2007, % of global area of biotech crops From 1996 to 2007, % of global area of biotech crops in in developing countries increased every single year developing countries increased every single year –– reached 43% in 2007, up from 40% in 2006reached 43% in 2007, up from 40% in 2006

• Biotech area in developing countriesBiotech area in developing countries grew by 8.5 grew by 8.5 million hectares, or 21% million hectares, or 21% in 2007, comparedin 2007, compared with 3.8 with 3.8 million hectares or 6% in industrial countries million hectares or 6% in industrial countries

• The 5 mega biotech countries of Asia, Lat Am & Africa The 5 mega biotech countries of Asia, Lat Am & Africa China, India, Argentina, Brazil and South Africa, China, India, Argentina, Brazil and South Africa, with with aa combined population of 2.6 billioncombined population of 2.6 billion (40% of global) (40% of global) grew 46 million hectares of biotech crops in 2007, grew 46 million hectares of biotech crops in 2007, equivalent to 40% of global total equivalent to 40% of global total

Source: Clive James, 2008Source: Clive James, 2008

Developing countries continue to record Developing countries continue to record bigger gains in biotech area than industrial bigger gains in biotech area than industrial countries in 2007countries in 2007

I S A A A

• IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOMEIMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME – Increased yields of 5 – Increased yields of 5 to 50%. Farm income gains of to 50%. Farm income gains of $7 billion in 2006$7 billion in 2006 & $34 billion & $34 billion 1996-2006; $17.5 billion in industrial, $16.5 billion in dev countries 1996-2006; $17.5 billion in industrial, $16.5 billion in dev countries

• PROTECT BIODIVERSITYPROTECT BIODIVERSITY - Double crop production on same area - Double crop production on same area of 1.5 million hectares of crop land - of 1.5 million hectares of crop land - save forests/biodiversity - save forests/biodiversity - 13m ha loss/year in DCs 13m ha loss/year in DCs

• ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT - Reduce need for external inputs - Reduce need for external inputs - - Saving of 289,000 MT a.i. pesticidesSaving of 289,000 MT a.i. pesticides from 1996 to from 1996 to

20062006- - Saved 15 bill kg C0Saved 15 bill kg C022 in 2006- in 2006- 6.5m less cars - climate change 6.5m less cars - climate change

- Conservation of soil & WATER = SUSTAINABILITY- Conservation of soil & WATER = SUSTAINABILITY

• SOCIAL BENEFITSSOCIAL BENEFITS - Contribution to alleviation of poverty of 11 million small - Contribution to alleviation of poverty of 11 million small

farmers in 2007, compared with 9.3 million in farmers in 2007, compared with 9.3 million in 2006 2006

- MORE AFFORDABLE FOOD,FEED &FIBER MORE AFFORDABLE FOOD,FEED &FIBER

Impact of Biotech CropsImpact of Biotech Crops Source; Compiled by Clive James , 2008Source; Compiled by Clive James , 2008

I S A A A

ALL COUNTRIESUSA Argentina China Brazil India Canada Others

Source: Brookes and Barfoot 2008

1996-2006 2006

$ 33.7 billion$ 15.9 billion $ 6.6 billion$ 5.8 billion $ 1.9 billion $ 1.3 billion $ 1.2 billion $ 1.0 billion

$ 7.0 billion $ 2.9 billion $1.3 billion $0.8 billion 0.6 billion

$0.8 billion $0.3 billion $0.3 billion

Biotech Crops – Global Economic Benefits:Biotech Crops – Global Economic Benefits:1996 to 2006, and 20061996 to 2006, and 2006

I S A A A

• Continued growth in US, Canada and Australia with expanded range of crops featuring more agronomic and quality traits plus the very important trait of DROUGHT TOLERANCE in about 3 years .

• Brazil has enormous potential in Lat America

• 1st decade 1996-2005, was the decade of the Americas, 2nd decade will likely feature strong growth in Asia led by India, China & new countries like Vietnam and Pakistan

• Africa - # of biotech countries to increase modestly , led by Egypt in N. Africa, Burkina Faso in W Africa and Kenya in E. Africa

• Slow to modest growth in EU, - more potential in Eastern Europe

• Use of biotech crops for biofuel- ethanol & biodiesel- has potential to contribute to higher biomass production and higher efficiency

Compiled by Clive James, 2008

• Continued growth in US, Canada and Australia with expanded range of crops featuring more agronomic and quality traits plus the very important trait of DROUGHT TOLERANCE in about 3 years .

• Brazil has enormous potential in Lat America

• 1st decade 1996-2005, was the decade of the Americas, 2nd decade will likely feature strong growth in Asia led by India, China & new countries like Vietnam and Pakistan

• Africa - # of biotech countries to increase modestly , led by Egypt in N. Africa, Burkina Faso in W Africa and Kenya in E. Africa

• Slow to modest growth in EU, - more potential in Eastern Europe

• Use of biotech crops for biofuel- ethanol & biodiesel- has potential to contribute to higher biomass production and higher efficiency

Compiled by Clive James, 2008

The Future – The 2The Future – The 2ndnd Decade, 2006 - 2015 Decade, 2006 - 2015

I S A A A

• Responsible and efficient stewardship

• Improved Communication with Society. Knowledge-based decisions re Biotech crops

• Responsible and efficient stewardship

• Improved Communication with Society. Knowledge-based decisions re Biotech crops

Challenges for the FutureChallenges for the Future

I S A A A

PhilippinesPhilippinesISAAA’s Global KCISAAA’s Global KC

IndonesiaIndonesia

MalaysiaMalaysiaBrazilBrazil

ArgentinaArgentina

ChinaChina

IndiaIndia

EgyptEgypt

KenyaKenya

South AfricaSouth Africa

ThailandThailand

VietnamVietnam

*Costa Rica*Costa Rica

*Chile*Chile

*Senegal*Senegal **NigeriaNigeria

Knowledge and Experience Sharing

MaliMali

BangladeshBangladesh

21 Current nodes21 Current nodes

PakistanPakistan

*Mexico*Mexico

5 Future nodes5 Future nodes

RussiaRussiaBulgariaBulgaria

ISAAA’s Global Knowledge Center (KC) on Crop Biotechnology & ISAAA’s Global Knowledge Center (KC) on Crop Biotechnology & Network of Biotechnology Information Centers (BICs)Network of Biotechnology Information Centers (BICs)

Global Knowledge Center (KC), based at ISAAA, S.E.Asia Center in the Philippines

Sri LankaSri Lanka

SpainSpain ItalyItalyUSA USA

I S A A A

ISAAA CropBiotech Update RecipientsISAAA CropBiotech Update Recipients

- Includes recipients of CropBiotech Update translations in Arabic, Bahasa Indonesia, Bangla, Chinese, French, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish, Thai and Vietnamese

- Does not include subscribers to other list serves that pick up articles from the CropBiotech Update; estimated at 30,000

January 2001 – April 2008January 2001 – April 2008

I S A A A

ISAAA Briefs No. 37-2007ISAAA Briefs No. 37-2007 – “Global Status of – “Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2007”Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2007”

Knowledge Sharing with Global Knowledge Sharing with Global SocietySociety

Impact of ISAAA Annual Global Status Review(As of April 30, 2007)

No. of media articlesNo. of media articles = 1,125= 1,125

No. of countries reachedNo. of countries reached = 46= 46

No. of people reachedNo. of people reached ~ 550 million~ 550 million

No. of languages No. of languages = 31= 31

>99% of articles are positive or neutral>99% of articles are positive or neutral

I S A A A

STRATEGY WITH FOUR THRUSTS

1. Increasing global crop productivity to improve food, feed and fiber production in sustainable crop production systems that also conserve biodiversity AND PROVIDE MORE AFFORDABLE FOOD

2. Contributing to the alleviation of poverty and hunger

3. Reducing the Environmental Footprint of Agriculture

4. Mitigating Climate Change – speeding the breeding

Complied by Clive James, 2008

STRATEGY WITH FOUR THRUSTS

1. Increasing global crop productivity to improve food, feed and fiber production in sustainable crop production systems that also conserve biodiversity AND PROVIDE MORE AFFORDABLE FOOD

2. Contributing to the alleviation of poverty and hunger

3. Reducing the Environmental Footprint of Agriculture

4. Mitigating Climate Change – speeding the breeding

Complied by Clive James, 2008

The Future - Biotech Crop contribution to 2015 The Future - Biotech Crop contribution to 2015 MDG Goals, and more Sustainable Agriculture MDG Goals, and more Sustainable Agriculture

I S A A A

Increase of 12%, 12.3 million hectares (30 million acres), between 2006 and 2007.

Source: Clive James, 2007.

GLOBAL AREA OF BIOTECH CROPSMillion Hectares (1996 to 2007)

23 Biotech Crop Countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total

Industrial

Developing