Gipe - Ontarios FiT: Setting The Standard In North America
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Transcript of Gipe - Ontarios FiT: Setting The Standard In North America
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipeand are not necessarily those of the sponsor.
Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment,ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA,BWE, CanWEA, Canadian Co-operative Assoc., CAW,CEERT, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic,IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan,NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA,Pembina, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG,WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League,the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, and ZondSystems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada,France, Denmark, and Germany.
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Carleton College V82, Northfield, Minnesota
Ontario’s Feed-in Tariffs:Setting the Standard in North America
byPaul Gipe
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Höhe Westerwald, Germany
Setting the Stage
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Renewables Can Be Added Quickly
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Germany Renewables: 10 Years--5% to 15%Spain: 10 Years--0% to 10%
Wind 5 yrs Wind 10 yrs Solar 5 yrs
Germany 15 TWh/yr 35 TWh/yr 5 TWh/yr
Spain 15 TWh/yr 28 TWh/yr 5 TWh/yr
2008 North American Wind MarketOntario 6th Largest Market
7.1
2.8
2.5
1.8
1.5
1.0
Texas
Iowa
California
Minnesota
Washington
Ontario
Total MW Thousands
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
North American Solar PV MarketOntario Moves to Top of List
California
Ontario (2009)
New Jersey
Colorado
Nevada
0 50 100 150 200
2008 MW/yr
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
*Loose translation of “On résiste à l'invasion desarmées; on ne résiste pas à l'invasion des idées.
“Nothing is as powerful as an ideawhose time has come.”-- Victor Hugo
Renewable Tariffs in North America . . Unthinkable?
• Yes--Just 6 years ago“You’re Absolutely Nuts!”
Andy Karsner, DOE, 2006
• Today? No
• Now Possible
• Growing Trendin North America
& Developing World
China, India, Mongolia
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Gaspé, Quebec
Toronto, Ontario
Renewable Tariffs . . .Developing Momementum
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Ontario Moved First
First Modern Systemof Advanced Renewable Tariffs
in North America
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Montfort, Wisconsin
Goderich, Ontario
Ontario “Gets It”
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
• Closing Coal Plants
• Delaying Nuclear Build
• Putting Renewables FirstGroundbreaking in North America
Ontario’s Green Energy& Green Economy Act
• Multi-faceted
• Efficiency & Conservation
• Renewable EnergyProcure Through Feed-in Tariffs
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Goderich, Ontario
Ontario’s Green Energy Act
The Most Progressive RenewableEnergy Policy in North America
in Two Three Decades
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Ontario’s Green Energy Act
• Changes Public Policy on ElectricityIncludes Industrial & Environmental Policy
• Gives Renewables PriorityIn Utility Procurement & System Design
• Targets Industrial Development
• Targets Job CreationGoal: 50,000 Jobs in 3 Years
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Ontario’s Feed-in Tariffs
• Differentiated by Size & Technology
• Differentiated by Application
• Tariffs Based on Cost of GenerationPlus Reasonable Profit
• No Program Cap (Bring It On!)
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Sarnia, Ontario
Ontario’s Feed-in Tariffs
• First Offshore Wind Tariffs in NA
• First Aboriginal Bonus in NAFirst NA Policy for First Nations
• First Differentiated Solar PV Tariffs5 Tranches or Classes
• Best Wind, Solar, & Biogas Tariffs in NACompetitive Internationally
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Prices Paid for Wind Energy in Europe
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Germany
France
Spain
Ontario
$CAD/kWh
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
Prices Paid for Offshore Wind Energy
Germany
France
Ontario
$CAD/kWh
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Middelgrunden, DenmarkGoogle Maps
Solar PV Tariffs Worldwide
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Washington State*
Italy
South Korea
Ontario
Czech Republic
France
Germany
Austria
Spain
California*
South Australia*
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
$CAD/kWh
Solar PV Yields
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Hamburg, D
Nuremburg, D
Stuttgart, D
Reims, F
Toronto, ON
Halifax, NS
Nice, F
Madrid, E
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
kWh/kW/yr
Source: RetScreen
Ontario’s Feed-in Tariffs
• No Subsidies or Grants
• Costs Borne by ConsumersNot Taxpayers--More Egalitarian
• Community Wind BonusThird Jurisdiction in North America
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Grading North American FITs10 Criteria
• Program Caps
• Project Size Caps
• Contract Term
• Technologies Included
• Tariffs Based on Cost of Generation
• Tariffs Differentiated by Technology
• Tariffs Differentiated within Technology
• Wind Tariffs Differentiated by Resource
• Inflation Indexing
• Bonus Payments or Adders
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Grading North American FITsThe Gold Standard
Score Grade
Germany 90 A
France 90 A
Spain (Fixed Tariff) 80 A-
Fuchskaute, GermanyPaul Gipe, wind-works.org
Grading North American FITs Historical FITs
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Score Grade
Cal ISO4 (1983-1984) 43 F
Ontario SOC (2006-2008) 55 D
Ontario SOC--Good First Start for North America
Grading North American FITs
Criteria Germany France Ontario
Program Caps 10 10 10
Project Size Caps 10 8 8
Contract Term 10 10 10
Technologies Included 10 10 8
Tariffs Based on Cost of Generation 10 10 10
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Grading North American FITs
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Criteria Germany France Ontario
Tariffs Differentiated by Technology 10 10 10
Tariffs Differentiated within Technology 20 16 20
Wind Tariffs Differentiated by Resource 10 10 0
Inflation Indexing 0 6 3
Bonus Payments or Adders 0 0 5
Grading North American FITs Existing FITs
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Score Grade
Ontario (2009) 84 A-
Vermont 54 D
Maine 43 F
Wisconsin IOUs 36 F
California 28 F
Oregon 16 F
Ontario Success Due To
• Push for Renewable PolicyNot a Solar PV or a Wind Policy
• Push for Conservation & EfficiencyReduces Program Costs to Ratepayers
(Danes Pay Less for Electricity Than Ontarians)
• Collaborative StrategyGreen Energy Act Alliance: Green NGOs & Labor
Trade Groups: CanSIA, CanWEA, OWA
• Public Consultation
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Ontario’s FITs--Issues Remaining
• Domestic ContentLocal Choice
• Differentiating Wind Tariffsby Resource Intensity
• Samsung Deal
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wolfe Island, Ontario
San Gorgonio Pass, California
Differentiated Tariffs for Wind
• Distributed Benefits
Only Accrue From Distributed Generation
Differentiated Tariffs = Distributed Wind
• Reduces Pressure on Windiest Sites
Profitability Still Higher at Windy Sites
• Reduces NIMBYism
By Enabling Greater Participation
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Differentiated Tariffs for Wind
• Increases Program FlexibilityLessens Pressure to Get Prices Right the First Time
• Reduces Development RiskDetermining Final Price After 5 Years of Operation
• Spreads Opportunity to AllNot Just to Elite Few
• Provides Fair Profits at Modest Wind Sites
• Limits "Excessive Profits" at Windy Sites
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Igny, Lorraine, France
French Wind Tariffs Resource Productivity Method
• Fair Profits at Medium Wind Sites
• Not “Undue” Profits at Windy Sites
• Price Adjusted for Inflation 60%
• Profitability Index Method (Chabot)Not Discounted Cash Flow Model
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
French Wind Tariffs by Specific Yield
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
960 1000 1040 1080 1120 1160 1200 1240 1280 1320 1360 1400 1440
Specific Yield (kWh/m2/yr)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15$CAD/kWh
Base Medium High
Chateau de Lastours, France
French Wind Tariffs 2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Year
0
0.05
0.1
0.15$CAD/kWh
27% CF (900 kWh/m2)
32% CF (1,100 kWh/m2)
41% CF (1,400 kWh/m2)
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Ontario’s Samsung Deal--Troubling
• Non TransparentHallmark of FITs is Transparency
• Preferential Grid AccessHallmark of FITs is Equal Access
• Preferential Tariff (EDA)Non Transparent Price Setting
No Public Discussion of $0.01/kWh Adder
May Pay Too Much at Windy Sites
Must Have Differentiated Wind Tariffs toAvoid Overpayment
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Ontario’s Samsung Deal
• Must Not JeopardizeFIT Program
Community & Aboriginal Projects
Dynamic & Competitive Market
• Could Be Model for Other Mfgrs.Could Stimulate Interest by Other Players
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org St. Olaf College V82, Northfield, Minnesota
Ontario’s FIT ProgramWorld Class
“Made in Canada”
Ferndale, Ontario
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Move FromA Culture of Consumption
toA Culture of Conservation
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
--Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty
Montfort, Wisconsin
Move From
A Nation of Consumers
to
A Nation of Producers
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Lackawanna, New York
We Need A Lot More Wind . . .
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Matane, Quebec
. . . A Lot More Solar
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Hinesburg, Vermont
. . . A Lot More Renewable Energy
Technology for Life*
*from N.F.S. Grundtvig, Danish Theologian
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org
Ontario’s
Feed-in Tariffs
. . . Setting the
Standard in
North America
www.wind-works.org
Manawatu Gorge, New Zealand