Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11
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Transcript of Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME WEATHER
Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island
ISAAC GINIS
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Impact of Global Warming
Intensities
One of the most dangerous implications is worsening of extreme weather events around the world in respect to:
Frequencies
Fatalities and Damages
Global warming is associated with a broad spectrum of changes, such as decreases in snow cover and Arctic sea ice, warmer hot days and nights, rising sea levels, and ocean acidification.
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Black lines: decadal averages of observations Blue band: 5-95% range 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only natural forcings Red band: 5-95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings
Quelle: IPCC FoAR, 2007
Temperature is Rising in Every Continent
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Heat stress
Cold stress
light
extreme high
moderate light
comfortable
moderate high
extreme
Temperature on 8 August 2003 and excess mortality
Sources: Robine et al., 2007; German Weather Service, 2004
19.500
9.400
15.000
300 2.300
20.100
2.700
1.000 800
August 2003 - Heat wave in Europe more than 70,000 fatalities
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July 26, 2005 – Mumbai Flood •Meteorological station in Mumbai, India recorded 37 inches of rainfall within 24 hours •Highest ever in history of precipitation recordings in India.
More than 1150 fatalities
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August 2005 - Hurricane Katrina
$110 billion direct damage More than 1,800 fatalities
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June/July 2007 – Flood in the UK Largest flood economic losses ever
Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/summer2007/index.html
Overall losses: > US$ 8 billion
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February 2009 - Wildfires, Australia Largest on record
More than 175 fatalities
Source: Reuters, Berlin
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Pakistan Russia China 2010
The hottest recorded summer in Russian history. 56,000 died.
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February 2010 Snowmageddon in the U.S
Moisture from storm 2000 miles away: subtropical Atlantic where ocean temperatures at record high levels!
Courtesy of K. Trenberth
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Blizzard February 2011 affected at least 30 U.S. states, more than 100 million people
New Hampshire
Chicago Milwaukee
Wisconsin
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Blizzard 2011
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2011 Southern US Drought
Texas experienced driest July-August period on record
Suffered an estimated $5.2 billion losses.
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August 2011 - Hurricane Irene
Vermont Rhode Island
Philadelphia
• Landfall in NC, NJ, NY, CT • Affected 11 states • Fatalities: 56 • Damage: $10.1 billion
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October 2011 - most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries in the
Northeast U.S.
Newark, New Jersey reported 5.2” greatest October snowfall on record
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Weather Disasters in U.S. Frequency & Economic Losses Increasing Dramatically
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html
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2011 IPCC Report: Extreme Weather Worsening
• New IPCC report confirms extreme weather worsening due to climate change.
• Scientists are virtually certain – 99% –world will have more periods of weather extremes through 21st century.
• 95% certain human actions contributed to trend and it will continue in future.
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Other “High Impact” Weather Events • Not all “high impact events” are changing.
• There is insufficient evidence to determine
whether trends have occurred in “small spatial scale” events such as tornadoes, hail, lightning and dust storms.
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United States Landfalling Hurricanes Do not Show any Long-term Trend
Image credit: NOAA/NHC
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North Atlantic Hurricane Season Getting Longer
• In 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in Atlantic on or after November 1 -- average of 1 every 5 years
• In past 20 years, late-season hurricanes 3.5 times more frequent -- 15 late-season hurricanes.
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Future Atlantic Hurricane Projections
• Colored bars show changes for the18 model CMIP3 ensemble (27 seasons); dots show range of changes across 4 individual CMIP models (13 seasons).
Cat 4+5 frequency: 81% increase, or 10% per decade
Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010.
Rainfall rates: 20% increase
Estimated net impact of these changes on damage potential: +28%
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Late 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Projections
Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010
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Projections of Extreme Weather Events in Rhode Island
• Currently ~12 to 15 nor’easters (extra-tropical
storms) hit U.S. Northeast November to March. • Projection -- 1 additional nor’easter could
affect the Northeast coast each winter by late century.
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Projections of Extreme Weather Events in Rhode Island
• Higher sea levels and more intense storms. • Probability of increase in major coastal and
inland flood events. • Even minor storms will increase -- possibly
dramatically -- storm surge impacts such as coastal erosion.
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Be Prepared!