GIC Monthly Market Review - CTBC Private Bank Market Review...GIC Monthly Market Review Investment...

1October 2016

GIC Monthly Market ReviewInvestment Strategy and Outlook

October - 2016

2October 2016

2015 2016F 2017F

Global 3.1 3.3 3.4

US 2.4 1.5 2.0

Europe 1.4 1.5 1.2

Germany - 1.9 1.6

Japan 0.5 0.7 -

China 6.8 6.6 6.0

2015 2016F 2017F

Global 2.8 3.2 3.4

US 0.6 1.6 1.8

Europe 0.2 0.2 1.5

Japan 0.7 0.1 -

China 1.6 1.8 1.8

# of times

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Fed 1Fed median forecast appropriate rate of 0.625% at the end of 2016

CTBC 1 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75

• The current malaise in the global economy is unlikely to stop suddenly. Slowgrowth and deflationary pressure is more than just a debt hangover, andbalance sheet recession from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 – 2009.There are powerful structural forces at work, the effects of which will last fora considerable period. These include an ongoing fiscal debt overhang, a peakin “globalisation”, adverse demographics for the majority of the developedmarkets, monetary policy exhaustion and overall low financial asset returns.Investor expectations have yet to adjust to the fact that sub-par growth andlow inflation are likely to persist for potentially a number of years.

• The overall approach to investment will need to be more tactically drivenboth in terms of timing and security, sector and country selection. While wedo not anticipate a hard landing, neither for China nor the overall globaleconomy, pockets of weakness will continue to persist. The fundamentalbackdrop to bonds are is not generally supportive and while there is a lack ofearnings growth and any momentum to multiples, it implies a lacklustreenvironment for global equities too.

• Emerging market backdrop remains bearish for all asset classes, especiallywhile the bear market in commodities is potentially unfinished. Anyexposures there will have to be extremely tactical by nature. Oil may bereaching a bottom but will be volatile on the turn as geopolitical events in thevolatile part of the world, swing sentiment.

• The dollar is likely to gain further against emerging and commodity relatedcurrencies but the upside versus the Euro and the Yen will be limited giventhe potential for disappointments regarding the U.S. rates.

Macro Outlook – 2017 - GLOBAL 3.4

Key Forecasts For 2016

GDP Forecast

Inflation Forecast

2016 Fed Rate Hikes

3October 2016

Key Forecasts For 2016

• Price path expected to be choppy due to tepid global growth,divergent central bank policies, movement in oil/commodity prices.

• Range trading is likely to be a profitable strategy in 2016.

• We expect to see gains for S&P 500 more likely to come in 2H16 asearnings play catch up.

• Brexit has created new headwinds for the struggling Europeanbanks. Volume of new issuance and trading activity will likely besubdued in the near term on heightened uncertainty.

• China government stimulus critical to arrest the slowing growth.Start of the Shenzhen-HK Connect could lead to fund flows intoChina.

Index Year End Price% to

TargetShort-Term

View

SPX 2,240 2,164 3.53 OW

Euro Stoxx 600

360 341.98 5.27 N

HSI 23,448 23,852 (1.69) N

MSCI China 67 65 3.32 OW

Nikkei 17,000 16,860 0.83 N

Equity Outlook FX & Commodities Outlook

Pair2016

Year EndPrice

EURUSD 1.08 1.11

USDJPY 100.00 103.61

USDCNY 6.70 6.71

USDSGD 1.38 1.37

USDCAD 1.35 1.32

USDCHF 1.02 0.98

AUDUSD 0.70 0.76

GBPUSD 1.23 1.24

Source: Bloomberg, 10 October 2016

• Expect oil markets will rebalance In 2016. Strategic energyrecommendations have been long for a 50 – 55 target. Goingforward, we continue to favor energy exposure over base andprecious metals, agriculture and softs. Still, we are tactically longcopper, silver and sugar based on short-term catalysts. We will lookfor sell-offs in deferred oil markets to get long. Lastly, we continueto favor long inflation-related plays.

• U.K.’s Brexit vote may keep U.S. Fed from rate hike until at leastDecember, keeping silver and gold prices well bid, particularly in thecase of the former, which is a popular retail investment. We havebeen positive on Gold as a hedge and it has, and continues to workwell in that capacity. Currently gold is technically overbought – sellinto strength as a basic philosophy. However, if things get reallyugly in the UK (i.e. Scotland leaves), we could easily see 1,500.

FX Rates Targets for Year End 2016:

4October 2016

Key Investment Themes for Q4 2016

Clients

Implications in Black Positioning in BlueInvestment Solution in Red

Asset Allocation & Management Divergence among regions/countries/sectors.

GIC Dynamic Allocation & Active ManagementWeekly Calls / Focus List Updates

Macro & FX Focused FX Strategy & Positioning:

GBP weakMild pro-USD overallJPY weakness turns suspectWeekly Calls / DCIsStructures driven by cash and loan book exposure

Equity Ideas Low Return, High Volatility.

Lock in profits / Dividend Strategy / Range TradingNimble Positioning / Liquid Assets / Bottom-up Selection

Sectors we like:US: IT, consumer discretionary, telecom, financials,

healthcareEurope: consumer discretionary, energy, healthcareAsia: consumer, energy, TMT, financials

Bond Investing US presidential election

Increase in volatilityDiversify to mitigate volatility OPEC output freeze FOMC & New issue supplyDo not chase yieldsPrefer IG over HY namesRelative Value / Stay Invested Low Rate Environment.

Prefer European insurance perps or robust issuer perps forthe long term carryBelly of the curve is most defensive area

Events & Policy Driven Anticipation of Market Stress Preparing for a Trump.

Do not price notes to stretch past U.S. elections Sudden uptick in US inflation. China SOE ReformsVolatility Hedge (Timing is key)

Alternative Sectors

Oil bounce Gold / Precious Metal Hedge

Mutual Funds Focus List / ETFsStructured Products

Investing the FutureConsumption, Logistics, New Energy,IT Innovation, Sustainable AgricultureRobotics & AutomationStructured Products

Structured Products: price for yields with deep strike, watch entry levels

Potential Future Themes EM (Indo Infrastructure) Health / Oncology / Ageing (Janus) La Nina after El Nino (Softs – Corn) Security

5October 2016

Economic View Implication

Our GIC meeting, was held in the first week of October in order to be able toencapsulate the full Q3 performance results. Perhaps we would have beenjust as well off doing this before month end, as markets hardly moved inSeptember. Having said that, there has been a faint shift to the upside foreconomic data and in fact, during the first days of October we have seenreports for the previous month showing signs of life. Particularly in the U.S.where we are seeing PMI and ISM numbers that are materially higher.Likewise the UK has experienced a measure of economic resilience which hasexceeded most post Brexit expectations. Europe and China have also turneda corner and shared a small improvement while Asia PMIs are rather morenuanced due to poorer background data on labour and orders.

We are marginally more constructive than we were, in the context ofhaving seen more positive information. Brexit is still in a good space as theUK reaps the benefits of weaker sterling while still having full access to allher markets. The U.S. vehicle and housing markets remain robust as doesthe labour situation. There are signs that inflation or rather deflation maywell be turning the corner and consensus around a Clinton victory and aDecember rate hike are building. Naturally, these being binary eventswhich are subject to economic data and news flow dependency, we cannotget too far ahead of ourselves. However, we are more constructive ondefensive (high dividend) stocks to the cost of sovereign bonds. We enterthe election long of risk with gold or volatility as hedges. STAY BALANCED.

U.S.: The latest September focused PMI and ISM data have printed healthygains. The non manufacturing ISM overnight jumped to the highest level inalmost 20 years at 57.1, up from the previous 51.4. If this is followed withconfirmation from strong labour statistics on Friday 7th, then the way is clearfor the Fed to raise rates either in November or December. The Presidentialelection on November 8th may push their decision to the latter date for fearof miscalculating the market response to the voting outcome.

Although we cannot call the election result, we are positioned for a Clintonvictory which, for many, means a return to the status quo. On that basis,we believe there will be “relief rally” in equities on the removal of electoraluncertainty. However, as this is not the guaranteed outcome we havereduced cash holdings to buy hedges. We have also reduced our strongoverweight in bonds in favour of conservative, high dividend yieldingequities. The U.S. is still our preferred market. Relative OVERWEIGHT.

The steady Eurozone has been less shaken up by Brexit than had been pricedin. Although the topic makes daily news, there is a ‘business as usual’ tone tothe market. The ECB has hinted that QE is likely to end on time if not sooner.Germany remains the strongest economy in the bloc.

Mixed data, but generally positive with steady recovery prospects inGermany means there are some “value plays to be found”. 2017 downsiderisks are diminishing although further support from fiscal and monetarydisciplines are required. Decrease underweight to NEUTRAL.

China has shown further signs of stabilization as their PMIs have all scoredabove 50 for 2 to 3 months consecutively. There have been no majordisappointments. FX and rates volatility have died to a minimum as Chinasmoothly entered the Global Currency Reserve Club last weekend. Therehave been attempts by the authorities to smooth real estate speculationonce again through policy.

We have very marginally revised down to 6.6%, our GDP forecast as theoutlook for H2 is turning out to be less negative requiring less policysupport. Rate cuts, although helpful are not necessarily required tomaintain growth trajectories. Headline indicators signal stabilization, andwe have increased our holdings to slightly OVERWEIGHT. (mostly H shares)

Japan’s economy has been moving from bad to worse, and has just aboutstayed there. Both the BoJ and the Government have failed to impress themarkets this year, and last week’s targeting of the yield curve by the BoJ wasmet with derision, as markets interpreted the move as a modest tightening.

The direction of the Nikkei will be more USD dependent than anything elseand in view of our view for a stronger dollar, we are, for choice, positive onstocks and negative on Yen. The GPIF Pension fund reweighting willcontinue to support equities. Maintain at NEUTRAL.

Recent OPEC support for oil prices through self limitation of supply hasunderpinned oil prices. These agreements are often fragile. USD has beenbetter bid in the anticipation of the start of Fed rate rises. Gold off on USD.

For commodities, we reinstitute a long gold hedge position ahead of theelection. Oil subject to weekly EIA reports which have been supportive.Expect H2 to trade $50 - 55. Buy cheaper Gold and VOLATILITY as hedges.

House View Summary – 6 October 2016 GIC

6October 2016

Overview

Key Market Performances:• The month of September, matched the equally moribund performance of August across the major

asset classes. In contrast to late August however, technical charts have turned a little bearish asmomentum faded.

2016 Key Assets Total Return Ranking

15% 14%

11% 10% 7% 6%

3% 3%

(0)%(3)%

(7)%(8)%

(14)%

13%

8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3%

16%

5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%

(2)%(2)%(3)%

(16)%

27% 25%

20% 19% 19% 18% 18%

10% 8%

3%

(10)%

(20)%

(15)%

(10)%

(5)%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Ru

ssia

MIC

EX

UK

FTS

E 1

00

Taiw

an T

WSE

Ind

ia N

ifty

50

HK

Han

g Se

ng

US

S&P

50

0

Au

stra

lia A

SX 2

00

Ge

rman

y D

AX

SG S

TI

Fran

ce C

AC

40

Euro

Sto

xx 5

0

Jap

an N

ikke

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25

Ch

ina

Shan

ghai

Asi

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Y

US

HY

US

IG

Spai

n 1

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UST

10

Y

Asi

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G

Ge

rman

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0Y

EU H

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EU IG

Ital

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0Y

JPY

CA

D

NZD

TWD

AU

D

SGD

EUR

Do

llar

Ind

ex

CN

H

CN

Y

GB

P

Silv

er

Nat

ura

l Gas

Bre

nt

Cru

de

Pal

lad

ium

Go

ld

WTI

Cru

de

Nic

kel

LME

Alu

min

um

Pla

tin

um

LME

Co

pp

er

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rn

YTD MTD (as of 10 October 2016)

7October 2016

Global Macro: Outlook for Growth

Global GDP


•Once again in September, maskedwithin the lack of movement hasbeen a definite series of changes intone, as reported data started toshow signs of stabilization for theDM economies including China.

•We have become more constructiveon the global economy andnotwithstanding challenges fromindebtedness, we think there is achance for some normalization inrates from the ultra low to simplylow.

Baltic Dry Index

China Trade

8October 2016

Global Macro: Outlook for Inflation – Benign

Inflation in Key Countries


•Sub-par growth and low inflation arelikely to persist for potentially anumber of years.

• Inflation remains weak in Eurozoneand especially Japan. In Septembermeeting, BoJ delivered comprehensiveassessment and reviewed measuresthat they have introduced so far to getits economy steadily out of deflation.

•Both the BoJ and the Abe Governmenthave failed to impress the markets thisyear, and latest policy adjustment totargeting the yield curve by the BoJwas met with derision, as marketsinterpreted the move as a modesttightening.

9October 2016

Global Macro: Outlook for Economic Growth

Surprise Index


•Once again in September, maskedwithin the lack of movement has been adefinite series of changes in tone, asreported data started to show signs ofstabilization for the DM economiesincluding China.

•Fed feels that the U.S. economy isapproaching the point at which it wouldbe appropriate and prudent to raiserates, but still stresses data dependent,and remains sensitive to internationalmacro and dollar strength.

Systemic Stress in Eurozone Financial System

Indicator calculated using market-based financialstress measures. Values fall within 0 and 1, closerthe values to 1, the higher stress levels.

10October 2016

Global Macro: Manufacturing Sector

Manufacturing PMI


• ISM’s Orders, and PMIs are allstaging a recovery in the U.S. joiningauto, housing and consumption, topaint a slightly more rosy projectionfor future growth. Asian PMIsmeanwhile mixed.

•Companies and their managementsstill reluctant to commit to growthin a world of uncertain demand andless reliable forward guidance fromcentral banks. Therefore, it is notsurprising that capital investmentsare not forthcoming just yet.

11October 2016

Global Macro: Services Sector

Services PMI


•Fed feels that the U.S. economy isapproaching the point at which it wouldbe appropriate and prudent to raise rates,but still stresses data dependent, andremains sensitive to international macroand dollar strength.

•UK has experienced a measure ofeconomic resilience which has exceededmost post Brexit expectations.

•China also turned a corner with someimprovement.

• Japan’s economy moving from bad toworse, and just about stayed there.

12October 2016

Global Macro: Liquidity and Financial Conditions

•The growing signs of strength in theU.S. economy, a mild recovery inEurope and the flattening out ofdeterioration in China from theprevious month’s data (which had putany pre-emptive tightening by the Fedinto jeopardy) bodes well.

•Certainly there is a growing concernthat the continued financial repressionforced on us by the central banks nolonger serves the world’s best interestsand further, may well do harm throughthe misapplication of resources.

•There are plenty of challenges forgovernments to address to help thesituation that would not involvenegative interest rates nor flooding themarkets with cash through QE.

Source: Fed, ECB, PBoC, BCA, Bloomberg, 10 October 2016

Credit Impulse – barely moving

China Monetary Conditions

Euro Area

U.S.

China

Lower / higher reading reflect tighter / loosermonetary conditions compared with previous period.

13October 2016

Global Macro: Odds of December rate hike higher,but Fed still stresses data dependent & global risk


•There has been enough good news filtering into the market for the odds of a rate hike inDecember to have now reached 67.6% from well below 50% a month ago.

•The only thing we think that stops the Fed from choosing November as its time to raiserates is the U.S. Presidential election on the 8th November.

14October 2016

Global Macro: Investment approach more tactical this year

Market Volatility

•We have long held that H2 globallyshould see improvement, even if it ismerely as result of early CB relatedefforts. Our key assumptions are thatinvestors are still reaching for yield,that the dollar will not run up as theFed remains wary of it, that deflationis still a bigger risk than inflation, andthat energy (oil) will not collapse fromcurrently levels.

•However, the U.S. Presidential electionis a wild card in the sense of beingbinary and unpredictable. The policyoutcomes unfortunately are equallybinary and unpredictable.


15October 2016

Asset Allocation: Asset Class Level

•We anticipate the start of a slow turn for the 30year bond bull market and have adjusted ourportfolios by taking profits on bonds to buydefensive, dividend paying stocks.

•U.S. election is a wild card in the sense of beingbinary and unpredictable. Policy outcomesunfortunately are equally binary andunpredictable. Our opinion is that Mrs. Clintonwill win and that the stock market will stage arelief rally on the removal of the Trumpuncertainty.

•However, we are far from being able to call thatresult with any degree of certainty and thereforewe are looking to place some hedges in theevent of a Trump win.

•Gold is potentially now more attractive as ahedge, but we could also use cheap volatility tobuy medium term put options, which shouldextend past the U.S. Presidential elections.

50%

50%

53%

37%

6%

4%

51%

34%

7%

8%

+8%

-8%

+2%

-2%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Equity

Fixed Income

Alternatives

Cash

BM SAA TAA TAA Change vs. previous adjustment

16October 2016

Asset Allocation: Country Level

•Our overweight U.S. versus Europe hasbeen a positive contributor, as has ourmore recent underweight in Japan whichis now shaved to close to neutral.

•We had, in the previous GIC opened anEM position in bonds for the first time in3 years, in keeping with our economicassumptions.

• Into this U.S. Presidential election, weare diversified and risk neutral.

6.2%

4.4%

3.7%

2.7%

2.2%

1.6%

3.7%

32.1%

13.2%

20.8%

7.0%

3.0%

2.8%

8.0%

9.4%

7.5%

8.9%

5.3%

2.7%

1.1%

11.8%

19.6%

5.0%

2.8%

10.7%

1.1%

+ 1.3%

+ 1.6%

+ 0.9%

+ 0.5%

+ 0.2%

- 8.1%

- 2.2%

+ 5.6%

+ 3.5%

+ 0.4%

+ 1.6%

+ 0.2%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Australia

China

Korea

Taiwan

HK

India

ASEAN

U.S.

Japan

Europe

UK

France

Germany

Europe Others

EM ex Asia

SAA TAA September TAA Diff vs. previous adjustment

17October 2016

Where Are Rates Headed in 4Q2016?

Fig 1 shows the monthly outstanding amount of Negative-yielding bonds since September 2014,according to the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index of IG bonds.

The index has a market cap of $48 trillion IG bonds from 24 DM and EM markets. From a peak of $11.9 trillion in June, there is currently $11.6 trillion of Negative-yielding bonds,

making up about 25% of the index. Fig 2 shows the breakdown of where these bonds are found with Japan accounting for about 50%,

Germany and France at 12% each.

Fig 1 Fig 2

GIC - Fixed Income: Rates Outlook

18October 2016


Chart shows the yield curves from the US, UK, Japan and Germany. Both Japan and Germany have negative yielding bonds all the way out to 12yr maturity. Japan has targeted the 10yr yield at zero percent. The UST remains incomparable in terms of returns and credit worthiness in a growing sea of

negative yielding bonds.

19October 2016


Chart shows the UST10yr yield vs the Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index. The UST volatility has dropped to a 21-month low after the September BOJ and Fed meetings.While this may be supportive of the UST near term, a prolonged period of low volatility is more

often than not, like the calm before a storm. The UST volatility is expected to spike up into the FOMC meetings.

20October 2016


Chart shows the US 2yr Inflation Breakeven Rate vs. Core CPI vs. PCE Deflator vs. Core PCE. The 2yr breakeven rate has climbed from below 1% in September to 1.35%All the inflation indicators - Core CPI, PCE Deflator and Core PCE – have climbed in August too. The Fed’s favored gauge, the PCE Deflator and core PCE are still quite far off from the 2% target.Moody’s Analytics – “The damage done by a pre-mature rate hike may be harder to repair than

the damage resulting from above-target price inflation.”

21October 2016

MATURITY

YTM

GIC - Fixed Income: Asian Credits

Chart shows the scatter graph of the median yields of Asian credits vis-a-vis their ratings, YTM andmaturity.

Asian credits yields in both the IG and HY sectors have increased slightly over the past one month. The spread widening in credits could help explain for the wider yield range.

Median RangeBBB 10yr 3.5 – 4.0% BBB 5yr 3.0 – 3.5%BB 5yr 4.0 – 5.0% BB 3yr 3.5 – 4.5%B 5yr 6.5% B 3yr 5.5%

22October 2016

GIC - Fixed Income: Credits Outlook

Chart shows the UST10yr yield vs. the 5yr Asian IG CDS. The CDS is currently highly correlated with the UST10yr yield, tracking the benchmark yield in

tandem. This is a double edged-sword where credits can become very expensive or very cheap.Nevertheless, we think any near term weakness is a buying opportunity in the Asian credits space.We still prefer IG names over the HY space, especially in the 5yr-10yr area.

23October 2016

Equity: Sector Strategy

Within Asia, we are positive on Australia, China, India, Indonesia and South Korea.

24October 2016

Equity: Sector Strategy

25October 2016

Products: US

U.S. : Maintain Overweight (+5% relative to the strategic asset allocation)

Focus on US Presidential election themes

*** Structured notes: it is only indicative prices. Please check with Product Team for details ***

26October 2016

Products: Europe

Europe: Upgrade to neutral from underweight

Focus on companies that will deliver better-than-expected quarterly results


27October 2016

Products: Asia

Asia: Upgrade to neutral from underweight

Focus on defensive high dividend yield stocks. We fear headline risks for China as we head towardsthe Nov., 8 election


28October 2016

Equities: Main Indices, Valuations and Targets

Source: CTBC, Bloomberg, 10 October 2016Technical Analysis Summary

1 Year Performance

29October 2016

Foreign Exchange:

EURUSD & USDJPY (Invert)


USDCNY & USDCNH (both Invert)

Dollar Index• USD – Market awaiting a Fed move which is more

likely in December with only one hike this year.

• EURUSD – We adjust forecast to 1.08 by year end,which is bottom of our interim trading range forecastthrough this year, given that Fed has dialled back ratehikes expectations. Fed hike in Q4 could trigger furtherfall in GBP, we think should approach 1.23 by year end.

- Year End Target: EURUSD 1.08 / GBPUSD 1.23

• USDJPY – BoJ delivered its comprehensive assessmentand reviewed the measures that they have introducedso far to get its economy steadily out of deflation in itsSeptember meeting. There is growing fear that theBank of Japan is giving up the fight in FX and adoptinga longer term battle strategy.

- Year End Target: 100

• USDCNY – Implementation of RMB into the SDR notexpected to have impact on FX rate, as the Chinesehave successfully managed market expectations ofvalue of its currency via introduction of the CFETS RMBIndex and open market operations.

- Year End Target: USDCNY 6.70

30October 2016

Commodities: Swings in Commodities Prices & Volumes

Still a Volatile Market


Recovery of Oil

Gold Price

•Oil and gold have been gyrating around, pushed bygeopolitical forces.

•Gold has sunk to recent lows and volatility is alsolow, perhaps too low given the binary (and yethugely different outcome scenarios) nature of theupcoming election.

• The Chinese retail investor has a new huntingground, in the less regulated pastures of thecommodities exchanges.

•Oil has benefitted from a loose agreement at OPECto support prices through reduced output and thedollar has been better bid on the back ofimpending Federal Reserve action.

31October 2016

GENERAL DISCLAIMERS:

1. This document and the investments and/or products referred to herein are for information only and do not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular

needs.

2. This document and the investments and/or products referred to herein should not be construed as any recommendation for you to enter into the investment briefly described above and this

document must be read with CTBC’s General Terms and Conditions including without limitation Risks Disclosure Statements, Supplemental Terms and Conditions and such terms and

conditions specified by CTBC from time to time.

3. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice from a

licensed or exempt financial adviser before making your commitment to invest in the investments and/or products referred to herein.

4. If you choose not to seek advice from a licensed or exempt financial adviser or such other independent professional, you should carefully consider whether investment in the investments

and/or products referred to herein is suitable and appropriate for you taking into consideration the risks and associated risks.

5. The final terms and conditions of the proposed investment in the investments and/or products referred to herein will have to be set out in full in the definitive trade confirmation between CTBC

and you.

6. CTBC does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein or otherwise provided by CTBC at any time. All of the information here may change at any time

without notice.

7. CTBC is not responsible for any loss or damage suffered arising from this document.

8. CTBC may act as principal or agent in similar transactions or in transactions with respect to the instruments underlying the transaction.

9. Until such time you appoint CTBC, CTBC is not acting in the capacity of your financial adviser or fiduciary.

10. Investments involve risks. Past performance figures, predictions or projections are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Actual performance may differ from the

projections in this document.

11. Any references to a company, financial product etc is used for illustrative purpose and does not represent our recommendation in any way.

12. Any scenario analysis is provided for illustrative purpose only and is no indication as to future performance and it does not reflect a complete analysis of all possible scenarios that may arise

under an actual transaction. All opinions and estimates given in the scenarios are illustrative and do not represent actual transactions.

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