GHG mitigation potential in the transport sector in Mexico
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Transforming Transportation
GHG mitigation potential in the transport sector in Mexico
Hilda Martínez
Centro de Transporte Sustentable
de México
January 15, 2010
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Content
National context
The role of transport in GHG emissions
GHG mitigations strategies (MEDEC)
Tackling the problem
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Content
National context
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Final energy consumption by sector
Source: National Energy Balance, SENER, 2008
Final energy consumption (2008) : 4815 PJ
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National GHG Inventory (2006):CO2 equivalents per sector
711 millones ton of CO2 equivalents
Fugitive emissions 6%
Transport 20 %
Point sources 35%
Energy
61%
Industrial Processes
9%
Agriculture6%
Land use
10 %
Waste
14%
Source: Mexico’s Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework. Convention on Climate Change, INE, 2009
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GHG Emissions by energy production and consumption, by sector
Source: Mexico’s Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework. Convention on Climate Change, INE, 2009
42.9 %
2.7 %25.8 %
63.3 %
1.5 %
65.2 %
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Content
The role of transport in GHG emissions (MEDEC)
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The problem
The country’s vehicle fleet triple from 8.3 The country’s vehicle fleet triple from 8.3 millions vehicles in 1996 to 21.5 millions in millions vehicles in 1996 to 21.5 millions in 2006 (average growth rate: 9.6%)2006 (average growth rate: 9.6%)
Mexico has followed a diffuse urbanization Mexico has followed a diffuse urbanization pattern, contributing for urban sprawl. pattern, contributing for urban sprawl.
Deteriorating quality of public transport Deteriorating quality of public transport
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Motor vehicle ownership:Historical trend and projected growth
for selected countries
Source: Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, World Wide, 1960-2030, Dargay, et al, 2007
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Source: Ownership/Per Capita Income [CTS with data from Dargay et al., 2007]
Ownership /per capita income
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Specific factors of vehicle ownership growth in Mexico
Source: CTS Mexico with SENER and INEGI data
1. Constant fuel real prices: Makes the ownership of vehicles cheap
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Source: Banxico, 2009
2. Credit access: facilitates the acquisition of vehicles by a greater proportion of the population
Source: SHCP, 2007
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Source: SEMARNAT, 2008
3. Import of used vehicles : also facilitates the acquisition of vehicles by a greater proportion of the population
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Mexico projection of total fleet by type of vehicle (2009- 2030)
Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
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Mexico projection of total emission per mode (2009- 2030)
Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
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Content
GHG mitigations strategies (MEDEC)
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Proposed StrategyTo face the difficulties that the transport sector represent ,an integrated strategy is required
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Alternate Scenario CTS / MEDEC
Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
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People Mobility
Technology
Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
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Externality and time costs for MEDEC Transport Interventions
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Marginal Abetment cost curves
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MEDEC findings
A dense urban growth policy helps to increase the demand for mass transit systems and hence improves their efficiency.
Measures that improved mobility (travel time and life quality) for people where the ones that offered more social savings.
Transport should be considered as an integrated system formed by a combination of elements
Failing to recognize these interrelations in the design of a transport policy may jeopardize its overall success
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Content
Tackling the problem
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BRT SystemsBRT Systems operating in 3 cities:
Mexico (Metrobus)
Guadalajara (Macrobus)
León (Optibus)
Federal Support Program for Mass Transit (PROTRAM): 32 cities applying to the program
Objectives:• Support cities in developing Mass Transit Investment Projects with high social justification• Support projects that are integrated to Sustainable Mobility Plans • Complement local government investment & maximize private investment • Strengthen local institutions in urban transport planning , regulation & management.
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Energy efficiency proposal for new light duty vehicles
Objective: to achieve18 km/l corporate average fuel economy for the new light duty vehicle fleet in 2015 (equivalent 130 gr CO2/km)
Policy to:Mitigate GHG emissions
Curve fossils fuels consumption
To cut fossil fuels subsidies (2.01% of the GDP, 2008)
To diminish fossil fuels imports (44% of the total consumption in 2008)
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Nationally appropriate mitigation action (NAMA)
Optimization of conventional bus system (e.g. unified pricing system for all public transport modes, etc.).
Financing scheme for a comprehensive scrapping program
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THANK YOU
http://www.ctsmexico.org