GHG emissions in an intensive agriculture scenario

RamanjaneyuluCentre for Sustainable Agriculture

Intensive Agriculture• is highly LINEAR, whereas traditionally agriculture was highly

CYCLICAL.• is based on maximizing the output of a narrow range of

species leading to monoculture of crops and varieties• is based on capital depletion and massive additions of

external inputs (e.g. energy, water, chemicals)• views the farm as a factory with “inputs” (such as pesticides,

feed, fertilizer, and fuel) and “outputs” (grain, cotton, chicken, and so forth)

• never cared about the externalities

After Ecological, Socio-political and Economic Crisis we are landing up in Climate Change

The Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)• Carbon Dioxide (CO2): fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), solid waste,

trees and wood products, and also as a result of other chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement).

• Methane (CH4): production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil; livestock and other agricultural practices and by the decay of organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills.

• Nitrous Oxide (N2O): agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste.

• Fluorinated Gases: (Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride): synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases from a variety of industrial processes. – Sometimes used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (i.e., CFCs, HCFCs,

and halons). Typically emitted in smaller quantities, but because they are potent GHGs, they are sometimes referred to as High Global Warming Potential gases (“High GWP gases”).

Sources: U.S. EPA, IPCC 3rd assessment

Global Warming Potential

• measure of the ability of a gas in the atmosphere to trap heat radiated from the earth’s surface compared to a reference gas, which is usually assumed to be carbon dioxide

• Usually, a time horizon of 100 years is used– carbon dioxide (CO2)= 1;– methane (CH4)= 21;– nitrous oxide (N20) = 310;– sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) = 23,900;– tetrafluoromethane (CF4)= 6500;– hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs): HFC-134a = 1300;– chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs): CFC-114 = 9300;– hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs): HCFC-22 = 1700

IPCC, 2007

Role of agricultural activity in emission of GHGs (Unit : Million tone Co2-eq)

GHG emissions from India• 64% of India’s population

depends on Agriculture• Contribution of Agriculture to

GDP ~ 18%.• GHG Emissions from Agriculture

sector – 344 million t CO2e/year

• Agriculture – second largest contributor of GHGs

Source: India’s first national communication to UN

CH4 and N2O emissions

One of the largest contributor of CH4 and N2O

Emissions from Fertilizer manufacturing• Chemical fertilisers consume 1.2% of the world's energy • Responsible for approximately 1.2% of the total emission

of the Greenhouse gases in the world consisting of 0.3% of pure CO, 0.3% as N2O and 0.6% as flue gas CO

• Feed stock to produce N fertilizers in India (2006-07)– Natural gas-62 %– Naptha-15 %– Ammonia (ext. supply)-13 %– Fuel oil-9 %– Others-1 %

• Fertilizer industry uses 25 % of Natural Gas, 18 % of Naptha and 14 % of Fuel Oil

• IPCC 2007 methodology • Urea = 4.02 kg CO2-eq per kg N• Ammonium phosphate = 6.39 kg CO2-eq per kg N

• In India emissions in 2006/07 was ~ 50 mt CO2- eq• This amounts to 3 percent of the country global net emissions

N20 emissions from fields• IPCC methodology 2007

• 1.25 kg of N2O emitted per 100 kg of Nitrogen applied

• Globally, an average 50% of the nitrogen used in farming is lost to the environment:

• as N2O to the air as a potent GHG (310 x CO2)

• as nitrate polluting wells, rivers, and oceans

• Volatilization loss 25-33 % • Leaching loss 20-30 %• Emissions from fertiliser application

in 2006/07 totaled 51 mt CO2-eq

The global greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser manufacture and use in India reached nearly 100 million tonnes of CO2-eq in 2006/07,

which represents about 6 percent of total Indian greenhouse gas emissions

In addition…• Factor productivity of Chemical fertilisers come down• The leached nutrients pollute the groundwater and

river waters cleaning up needs high energy• In AP 30 % of soil are reported to be saline• Shift in crop varieties can result in high nutrient use

– GM cotton needs 50 % more fertilizer-ANGRAU– 6 % increase in GE crops doubles the fertiliser consumption

(Dr. CD Mayee)– Recent study from IARI (Sarkar. et.al,2008*) says Bt cotton

may constrain N availability and reduce soil microbial activity

* J. Agronomy & Crop Science (2008)

Consumption and production of fertilizers in IndiaIn 2006/07, consumption reached 21 mt of nutrients, a 9-fold increased since 1970

India consumption of nitrogen the second highest in the world, after China

Nitrogen represents 63 percent of total nutrients, with nearly 14 mt of nitrogen

consumed in 2006

Urea:81 % of the

nitrogen fertiliserconsumed

Courtesy: Reyes Tirado, Greenpeace

Ever-growing…

Years 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Fertiliser Subsidy 18299 25952 40338119772* (estimated)

Years 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09Fertiliser Subsidy 18299 25952 40338 119772* (estimated)

*Source : Department of Fertilisers, Min of Chemicals and Fertilizers, Govt of India The New Indian Express, July 8, 2008

Trends in Economics of Fertilizer inputs on Rice Production in India (1971-2002)

In factory In roots

Nitrate production

Straw Burning in Punjab• Wheat crop residue 5500 Sq km and

Rice crop residues 12685 Sq km • every 4 tons of rice or wheat grain,

about 6 tons of straw is produced• One tonne straw on burning releases 3

kg particulate matter, 60 kg, CO, 1460 kg CO2, 199 kg ash and 2 kg SO2

• 40–80% of the wheat crop residue N is lost as ammonia when burned

• About 32–76% of the straw weight and 27–73% N are lost in burning

• 25% of N and P, 50% of S and 75% of K uptake by cereal crops are retained in crop residues

• Emission Factors (EFs) for wheat residue burning as estimated CO- 34.66g/Kg , NOx – 2.63g/Kg, CH4 – 0.41g/Km , PM10 – 3.99g/Kg, PM2.5 – 3.76g/Kg .

Straw Burning• Heat from burning straw penetrate into the soil up to 1

cm, elevating the temperature as high as 33.8–42.2°C• Bacterial and fungal populations are decreased

immediately and substantially only in the top 2.5 cm of the soil upon burning

• Repeated burning in the field permanently diminishes the bacterial population by more than 50%

• Burning immediately increased the exchangeable NH4 + –N and bicarbonate extractable phosphorus content, but there was no build-up of nutrients in the profile

• Long-term burning reduces total N and C and potentially mineralized N in the 0–15 cm soil layer

• One of the recognized threats to the RWS sustainability is the loss of soil organic matter as a result of burning

Comparison of All India Emissions from Rice and Wheat residue open burning in 1994 and 2000 (Gg)

Year CH4 CO N20 NOx

1994 102 2138 2.2 78

2000 110 2305 2.3 84

Gupta, P. K. et al., Residue burning in rice– wheat cropping system: Causes and implications. Curr. Sci., 2004, 87, 1713– 1715.

Brown cloud formed on October 12, 2002

Burning Nutrients

• 19.6 million tonnes of straw every year (rice and wheat), worth crores of rupees and losing– 38.5 lakh tonnes of organic

carbon– 59,000 tonnes of nitrogen– 2,000 tonnes of

phosphorous– 34,000 tonnes of potassium

every year

Burning Straw is Burning Subsidies• Total Fertilizer use in Punjab is• 184 kg/ha use is highest in the country (Nitrogen

alone accounts for 139.6 is kg/ha)• Punjab is also asking for additional 25 % subsidy on

diesel

Burnt nutrientsFertilizerequivalents

quantity (tonnes)

Total subsidy (Rs. Crore)

Farmers' cost (Rs. Crore)

59000 tonnes of Nitrogen

Urea (naptha based) 128261 384.78 64.34

DAP 327778 1329.04 318.732000 tonees of Phosphorus DAP 4348 17.63 4.23

SSP 12500 7.00 4.42

34000 tonnes of Potash MoP 56667 106.32 26.25

Breaking the natural cycles

Paddy cultivation in India • Out of a total area of 99.5 Mha

under cereal cultivation, 42.3 Mha or 42.5% is under rice cultivation

• It is grown under flooded conditions and the seedbed preparation involves puddling or plowing when the soil is wet to destroy aggregates and reduce the infiltration rate of water

Rice and GHGs• Anaerobic conditions lead to

emission of methane (CH4) and possibly nitrous oxide (N20) through inefficient fertilizer use.

• Emission of CH4 from rice paddies in India is estimated at 2.4 to 6 Tg out of the world total emission of 25.4 to 54 Tg from all sources and 16 to 34 Tg from rice cultivation.

• The average CH4 flux from rice paddies ranges from 9 to 46 g/m2 over a 120 to 150 day growing season

Tg (teragram= 1× 1012 g= 1 million metric tons or MMT)

Large dams contribute 18.7 % emissions

• Total methane emissions from India's large dams could be 33.5 million tonnes (MT) per annum, including emissions from reservoirs (1.1 MT), spillways (13.2 MT) and turbines of hydropower dams (19.2 MT)

• Total emission of methane likely to be around 17 MT per annum equivalent to 425 CO2 equivalent MT. This, when compared to India's official emission of 1849 CO2e MT in year 2000 (which does not include emission from large dams) it is 18.7 %

Ivan B.T. Lima et al. (2007) "Methane Emissions from Large Dams as Renewable Energy Resources: A Developing Nation Perspective,"Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, published on-line March 2007

Lift Irrigation Schemes in AP

Today 3,000 mega watts power is supplied freely to agriculture for 29 lakh pump sets

• By 2012 AP needs 12,682 Megawatt power

• 47 lakh ha would be brought under irrigation

• Seven and half horse power motor will be used for every 10 acres and five lakh such motors have to be installed in the next four years

• Needs 37.5 lakh HP electricity (2775 mega watt)

• Major lift irrigation schemes needs 6407 mega watt

• Minor lift irrigation schemes needs 500 mega watt

• to produce and supply one mega watt power

• Rs. 4 cr to create infrastructure to produce

• Rs. 4.5 cr for transmission and distribution

Livestock

• Livestock’s contribute to GHG emissions is 9.0 Tg methane and 1 Gg nitrous oxide for the year 1997, and in terms of CO equivalent it is around 190 Tg

• Shift to stall fed sytem create problems with the dung

• Shift from fodder to feed, concentrates carries higher ecological foot prints

The poorest people are likely to be hardest hit by the impacts of climate variability and change because they:

Rely heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as rainfed agriculture and fisheries.

Tend to be located geographically in more exposed or marginal areas, such as flood plains or on nutrient-poor soils

Are less able to respond due to limited human, institutional and financial capacity.

Have very limited ability to cope with climate impacts, and to adapt to a changing hazard burden. Despite significant progress in recent years, over 300 million people live in extreme poverty in India, earning less that US$1 per day, and 500 million earn less than US$2 per day.

India: climate and development context

India: sensitive to changes in climate in future

Observed climate (1961-90) Projected climate (2040-2060)

Climate Change Scenarios for India

Year Season Increase inTemperature, oC

Change inRainfall, %

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest

Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.362020s

Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10

Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.822050s

Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52

Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.502080s

Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18

Source: Lal et al., 2001

Yield: Reduction in rabi crops, increase in soybean, CO2 Fertilization effect, C3 Plants may be benefitted, Water Availability: Increase in frequency of flood and drought,

delayed summer monsoon, lowering of ground water, higher monsoon rains, lower rabi rainsSoil Processes: organic carbon Loss, soil water content, runoff erosion, workability, temperature, Salinization, biodiversity, and organic carbon and nitrogen content, lowering of ground waterQuality of Crop: Low N and protein content, more amylase but

less Zn and Fe in Paddy, reproductive animal health at risk

Pest Incidence and Virulence: more life cycles of insects, lessening of latent period of fungi

Overall Change in Farm Ecology: e.g. Bird-insect relationsSea level rise : salinity ingression, submergence

Direct and Indirect effects of climate change on Agriculture

A family used to farm 85 acres on the vanished island of Lochachara. Now they have one acre in a village for displaced people on a nearby island, which itself is under threat from the waves.

Professor Sugata Hazra

Aligning with natural cycles

Sustainable Agriculture-nested cycles

Business as usual is not the option!

Therefore…• Move towards more ecological farming

models which are sustainable • Shift to internalized input based production

systems• Shift to low water consuming, location specific

cropping patterns• Shift to locally adapted crop varieties and

agro-diversity based cropping systems