Ghana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS)

GHANA

GHANA’S LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (LCDS)

Facilitating Implementation and Readiness for Mitigation (FIRM)

GHANA

Ministry of Environment, Science, Technology and Innovation (MESTI)

COPYRIGHT©, 2016

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This publication is an output of the Facilitating Implementation and Readiness for Mitigation project (FIRM), funded by DANIDA of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark and implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UNEP DTU Partnership (UDP). The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNEP DTU Partnership or UNEP. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the UNEP DTU Partnership

NATIONAL COORDINATION

Ghana


January, 2016

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The project Facilitating Implementation and Readiness for Mitigation (FIRM) has been implemented with the support of a grant from the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark.

Graphic design : Fabrice Belaire Infographie

For any inquiries or questions please contact:

UNEP DTU PARTNERSHIP

UN City, Copenhagen Marmorvej 51, 2100 Copenhagen Ø Denmark

Web: www.unepdtu.dk

LinkedIn: UNEPDTU

Twitter: @unepdtu

ES. Executive Summary ES.1 Transforming Ghana to a Sustainable Future 10 ES.2 Motivation to go Low Carbon Way 10 ES.3 Low Carbon Development Strategy in Ghana 11 ES.4 Methodology and Approach 12 ES.5 Historical GHG Emission Trends 13 ES.6 Outlook of Ghana’s GHG Emissions Trajectory up to 2030 14 ES.7 Mechanisms for Implementation 12 ES.8 Institutional Structures for Implementation 13 ES.9 Monitoring and Evaluation 13

Section I: Policy Context 1.1 LCDS Policy Anchor 14 1.2 Development policies relevant to LCDS 15 1.3 Current state of Affairs – Diagnosis 17 1.4 Linkages between LCDS and Ghana’s INDC 19 1.5 Objectives of the LCDS 19 1.6 Strategic Areas of Intervention /Line of Action of the Strategy 22 1.7 The Action Plan 26 1.8 Mechanisms of Implementation 30 1.9 Institutional Setup 32 1.10 Monitoring and Evaluation 32

Section II: Technical 2.1 Background and Rationale 33 2.2 Climate Change Related Policies and Strategies 43 2.3 The Process and Institutions: Formulating the Low Carbon Development Strategy 48 2.4 GHG Emission Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios 58 2.5 Barrier Analysis 77 2.6 Monitoring and Evaluation 87

Appendices Appendix 1: Financial Flows in Detail for the Period 2011-2014 92

Appendix 2: Membership of Mitigation Assessment Working Group 98

Appendix 3: Terms of Reference of Mitigation Assessment Working Group 99

Appendix 4: Underlying Assumptions for Marginal Cost Curves 99

Appendix 5: Underlying Assumptions for Marginal Cost Curves 101

Appendix 6: Projected and Sustainable Extraction Rate For Baseline And Mitigation Scenarios 102

Appendix 7: Data Used in Projecting Demand for AFOLU Mitigation 102

Appendix 8: Waste GHG Emissions by Technology 102

Appendix 9: Absolute Technology Cost in the Waste Sector 103

Appendix 10: Mitigation Costs per ton of GHG Emissions for the Calculated Scenario Compared to Baseline

(BSL) 103

Appendix 11: Raw Score Results of Ranking of Barriers 103

Appendix 12: Raw Score Results of Ranking of Barriers 104

Appendix 13: List of Participants During the Validation Workshop 104

AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use AIC Annual Incremental Carbon APR Annual Progress Report BRT Bus Rapid Transport BUR Biennial Update Report CHP Combined Heat and Power CDM Clean Development Mechanism CSOs Civil Society Organizations COPMAP Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process CNG Compressed Natural Gas DIB Difference in Incremental Biomass EPA Environmental Protection Agency EC Energy Commission EFR Environmental Fiscal Reforms EPI Environmental Performance Index ERP Economic Recovery Program FOAT Functional Organization Assessment Tool FC Forestry Commission FASDEP Food and Agricultural Sector Development Program FPP Forest Preservation Project FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility FIRM Facilitating Implementation and Readiness for Mitigation GSGDA Ghana Shared Growth Development Agenda GPRS Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy GNI Gross National Income GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GPRS Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use IMR Infant Mortality Rate LCA Life Cycle Assessment LCDS Low Carbon Development Strategy LI Legislative Instrument LEAP Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System LCG Low Carbon Growth

MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MMDAs Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies MoF Ministry of Finance NDPC National Development Planning Commission MESTI Ministry of Environment, Science, Technology and Innovation MLGRD Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development MLNR Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification MMR Maternal Mortality Rate MAC Marginal Abatement Cost METASIP Medium Term Agriculture Sector Investment Plan MOFA Ministry of Food and Agriculture

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MOP Ministry of Power NCCP National Climate Change Policy NIB Net Incremental Benefits NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NCCC National Climate Change Committee NGOS Non-Governmental Organizations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change U5MR Under Five Mortality Rates PAs Protected Areas PGER Primary Gross Enrolment Ratio R & D Research and Development REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation SD Sustainable Development SWM Solid Waste Management SGER Secondary Gross Enrolment Ratio SNER Secondary Net Enrolment Ratio

UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity

UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

Figure 1: Number and Amount (mil US$) of Climate Change Projects. 17

Figure 2: Decomposition land uses in Ghana 33

Figure 3: Basic information on Ghana 34

Figure 4: Expected impacts of climate change on selected sectors 36

Figure 5: Distribution of Sectoral Contribution to GDP: 2006-2013 41

Figure 6: Secondary and primary enrolment 42

Figure 7: Institutional arrangement for climate change 49

Figure 8: Trends of GHG emissions/capita versus GDP/capita 58

Figure 9: Total GHG emissions by gases 59

Figure 10: Trends of total emissions by sectors 60

figure 11: Description of emission trajectory 63

Figure 12: Marginal cost curve 64

Figure 13: Overall scores of mitigation technology ranking 65

Figure 14: Energy demand final units 66

Figure 15: Final energy demand by sectors 66

Figure 16: Project installed capacity for electricity generation 67

Figure 17: Projected emission trends in BAU Scenario 68

Figure 18: Emission savings associated with unconditional mitigation scenario 69

Figure 19: Emission savings with conditional mitigation scenario 69

Figure 20: Marginal abatement curve for mitigation technologies 70

Figure 21: Overall score of AFOLU mitigation technologies 71

Figure 22: Prioritization of general barriers 80

Figure 23: Elements of LCDS Monitoring Framework 87

Figure 24: Operational Architecture Of LCDS MRV Framework 88

Figure 25: Timelines for rolling out MRV system 88

Table 1: Macroeconomic indicators relevant to GHGs for Ghana ..................................................................... 13

Table 2: Climate change related national policies, legislation and measures .................................................... 15

Table 3: Relationships between LCDS, national development priorities and SDGs ............................................ 20

Table 4: Action plan of prioritized low carbon development mitigation actions up to 2030 .............................. 27

Table 5: Climate Projections in Ghana ............................................................................................................. 35

Table 6: Key climate change challenges in different sectors ............................................................................. 39

Table 7: Trends of GINI index 1991/92-2005/6 ................................................................................................ 42

Table 8: List of institutional representation in the mitigation working group .................................................... 53

Table 9: Description of task and responsibilities of members of mitigation working group ............................... 54

Table 10: Distribution of workload of the analysis team .................................................................................. 55

Table 13: Tools and methodologies used in Forest Management ..................................................................... 57

Table 14: Tools and methodologies used in Solid Waste Management............................................................. 57

Table 15: Total emissions distribution among sectors ...................................................................................... 59

Table 16. Mapping of key mitigation sectors based on contributions to total national emissions in 2000 and

2010 ............................................................................................................................................................... 62

Table 17: Basic information on land categories ................................................................................................ 72

Table 18: Definition of baseline and alternative scenarios ............................................................................... 74

Table 19: Range of options for baseline and alternative scenarios ................................................................... 74

Table 20: Cost of solid waste disposal technologies ......................................................................................... 75

Table 21: Solid waste treatment per each option............................................................................................. 75

Table 22: GHG emissions from recycling and disposal of solid waste (Tones CO2 Equivalent) ............................ 76

Table 23: Mitigation cost per ton .................................................................................................................... 76

Table 24: Challenges and solutions to the implementation of LPG and improved stove mitigation actions ...... 81

Table 25: Challenges confronting the implementation BRT and possible solutions ........................................... 82

Table 26: Challenges confronting the implementation RE and possible solutions ............................................. 84

The Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) has been prepared with the active involvement and assistance of a wide range of stakeholders and partners who have contributed immensely in ensuring its finalization and need to be commended. These include the staff and management of Ministry of Environment, Science, Technology and Innovation (MESTI) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in particular, as well as other related public sector Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), private sector and industry, research and academic institutions, the media, development partners, international and inter-governmental organizations in Ghana.

We would also like to extend our sincere thanks to the Parliament of Ghana and in particular the Parliamentary Select Committee on Environment, Science, Technology and Innovations and the Select Committee on Lands and Natural Resources, and the High-Level Expert Review Panel Members, under whose mandate the strategy was drafted.

Special gratitude goes to the UNEP DTU partnership for providing both technical and financial support for the development of the LCDS. We would also like to acknowledge with much appreciation the crucial role Dr. Emmanuel Ackom of UNEP DTU played in the FIRM project. We are truly appreciative of his tireless support and the service to Ghana. Special appreciation goes to Dr. Sudhir Sharma who helped in diverse ways to make the preparation of this LCDS a success.

Our thanks go to the team that coordinated the development of the strategy: Dr. Daniel K. Twerefou, Dr. Albert Ahenkan and Mr. Clement Abavana. We recognize the Mr. Peter Dery of MESTI for coordinating the FIRM project with technical backstopping from Daniel Tutu Benefoh of the Environmental Protection Agency.

The transition towards a low carbon economy must be a priority across all facets of the post 2015 development agenda in order to reduce poverty and inequity, achieve prosperity and gender equality, and improved livelihood, through better health and decent jobs. A green transformation holds the potential to sustain a healthy planet where ecosystems are well managed and human wellbeing is preserved for future generations. As a country seeking to transition towards green economy, we must set priorities and targets. For Ghana, low carbon growth is a necessity as well as an opportunity to be seized.

To ensure continuity, Ghana’s LCDS is built on existing and previous national Policies such as the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Strategy, The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), Forest and Wildlife Policy, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy Policy and Ghana’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). The LCDS provides for a consistent set of policy objectives and strategies to guide the implementation of enhanced mitigation measures in Ghana. It is an opportunity to realize Ghana’s huge potential in renewable energy and a necessity to arrest ecological degradation that threatens the very survival of millions of our citizens.

We have therefore embarked upon a LCDS both to address climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. With the completion of this LCDS which will be fully integrated into the national development plan, our goal is to reach a full-fledged middle income status based on a low carbon growth by 2030. We are committed to effectively transforming Ghana into an early adopter of a low carbon growth path by 2020 and our initiatives are already being translated into investments in the prioritized mitigation sectors: Energy, Agriculture and Forestry, and Waste. There are numerous untapped opportunities for action on climate change in Ghana and Africa for that matter that we can now begin to seize with international support on financing, technology and capacity development. Ghana is well positioned and moving fast to contribute to developing a low carbon global economy, the environmental legacy and commercial benefits of which will endure long into the future. The LCDS was prepared in a participatory manner with the active involvement of both public and private sector actors. It is my cherished hope that the LCDS will complete our efforts and desire to achieve a low carbon resilient economy.

Mahama Ayariga (MP) Minister For Environment, Science, Technology &Innovation

To us in Ghana, the future we want, is the future where every Ghanaian has the opportunity to live long and have a meaningful life. This is the key message behind the sustainable transformation agenda government is pursuing. The transformation agenda is at the center of the country’s medium-term socio-economic development framework. In the transition to the future we want, climate change matter to us. Climate change matter to us for the simple reason that it poses considerable risk to development and the society at large. Available observed weather records have shown an average temperature rise of about 1 degree in the country1 in the last four decades. Future temperature projections indicate that Ghana will continue to get warmer whereas rainfall continues to be uncertain and difficult to predict. The consequence of the changing climate manifests itself in many ways particularly in sensitive areas of the economy. Some of the impacts resulting from climate change are unreliable production of hydro-electricity, declining food production and productivity, threats of extreme events to lives and infrastructure and disease. As a country we are concerned that if immediate action is not taken to address the climate change challenge it may threaten Ghana’s ability to consolidate the development gains achieved in the past. It also has the potential to derail the sustainable future aspirations we have set for ourselves. In order for the kind socio-economic transformation to occur Ghana has taken many bold steps. One of the important steps is to introduce new policies with the aim to ensure that the transition takes place on a sustainable path and within a reasonable timeframe. With the hope that when such transformation takes place it will lead to better growth, better climate and better lives. Ghana’s strategy had been to pursue a socio-economic development agenda that seeks to improve the lives of its citizenry and at the same time ensure that opportunities climate change present are put to profitable use. Therefore, in Ghana’s response to climate change the strategy is to climate proof development first and mitigation benefits follow. The mix of risks and opportunities drive policy development especially the national climate change policy. This is grounded on the concern that the impact of climate change will erode development gains hence priority should be given to it. The desire is to move towards a climate-resilient economy where climate adaptation and sustainable development are central to Ghana’s climate policy and mitigation is third on the agenda. Therefore, it can be deduced that consolidating economic development gains is the key priority that underpins Ghana’s view on climate change. Climate adaptation and resilience thus become uncontested priorities. Climate mitigation policies, in contrast, are either implemented at the lowest possible cost, or as their implementation promotes long-term economic development (e.g. energy security, sustainable transport), or as they have unintended benefits or co-benefits.

The agenda of transformation is set out in Ghana’s Shared Growth and Development Agenda II (GSGDA II) and the anticipated 40-year development plan. Many of the development policy choices we make to drive the transformation can be less carbon-intensive by altering the course of action of high-carbon intensive technology, process, behavior or policy. The implication is that the LCDS will not be designed

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to only achieve GHG emission reductions but it is also meant to foster sustainable development benefits. The GHG and co-benefits thereof from LCDS together, has the potential to spur long-term fundamental shift from the root cause of high-carbon intensive action. This implies adopting policies and measures to keep Ghana’s GHG emissions as low as possible as it would have been by 2030 without compromising on sustainable development goals. Ghana’s current greenhouse gas emissions of 33.7MtCO2e as of 2012 is by far below the global average although historical trends show that the emission had more than double 14.2MtCO2e since 1990 (see table 1). Therefore, the motivation to pursue low carbon development agenda is borne out of high-level conviction to at least keep the emissions low even as the economy continues to expand. The expectations are that making smart investments to better the well-being of Ghanaians in a low carbon way will bring about multiple benefits to the economy, lives and the climate. Furthermore, Ghana is convinced that pursing less carbon intensive development pathway in a long run will offer the needed impetus to attract additional foreign direct investments and clean technologies into country. When such investments come into the country, it will help Ghana meet some of its development needs in areas of energy and food security by increasing access to affordable clean energy, reducing deforestation, improving mass urban transport and waste management.

Ghana’s economy depends on natural resources. Majority of export commodities are derived from mining, timber, oil and gas and agriculture. The utilization of natural resources to support the Ghanaian economy comes at a cost of about 8.9% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP)2. In the last couple of decades, the levels of economy growth experienced in Ghana had come with rising emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Even though the trends in economic growth is commendable, it is important Ghana take steps to reduce the associated rising emissions. There are many actions in areas such as promotion of renewable energy, diversification of fuel for electricity generation, afforestation programs, that Ghana is already implementing which do not only have developmental objectives but also have benefits to GHG emission reductions. Thus, LCDS has been formulated with the view to consolidating the existing mitigation actions that have development imperatives into a formidable program of action. The program of action has the overarching objective of making sure that in the long term economic transformation takes place along a low carbon pathway. The LCDS will also identify less carbon intensive opportunities in key economic sectors and assess their emission reduction potentials and sustainable development benefits. For the implementation of the LCDS to be successful, it is important that is embedded in the medium to long-term development plan for the country. Special mention has been made in the GSGDA II on the need to take advantage of the opportunity climate change mitigation presents for the benefit of sustainable development. Similarly, in the on-going preparation of the 40-year national development plan, mitigation actions are anticipated to feature in some of the strategies that will be adopted to combat climate change. Having achieved the objectives set out in the LCDS, it is likely a good number of climate-related sustainable development goals (SGDs) will be met in good time. The LCDS has been designed to serve as the implementation framework of the mitigation component of the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP). In the NCCP, increasing carbon sinks and minimizing greenhouse emissions are the two specific mitigation program areas that have been put forward to help achieve the overall policy objectives. In addition, the LCDS will further elaborate on the specific detailed actions on how Ghana will meet its emission reduction targets that has been set out in the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC.

ES. 3.1 Vision of Ghana’s LCDS The vision of the LCDS is to contribute to ensuring that Ghana’s economic transformation takes place along a low carbon pathway leading to better growth, better lives and better climate.

ES. 3.2 Mission of Ghana’s LCDS The mission of the LCDS is to put in place a functional decision-support framework that ensures development choices including low carbon considerations in order to realize its full emission reduction potential and sustainable development (SD) benefits at all levels.

ES. 3.3 Objectives of LCDS The overall objective of this strategy is to contribute to global climate change mitigation through the development of an economically efficient and comprehensive LCDS for Ghana together with a monitoring reporting and verification system and an action plan. The specific objectives include:

Assess the current climate change mitigation policies/strategies and challenges;

Provide a clear picture of the current situation with regards to major emission sources;

Provide a clear picture of future emissions based on what is happening currently (business as usual scenario);

Identify, analyze and develop long-term mitigation scenarios based on cost efficiency and effectiveness, and on national development aspirations;

Assess the potential barriers to implementing these strategies and recommendations for improvement;

Develop institutional framework to support the implementation of the strategies;

Develop action plans for the implementation of strategies in key sectors;

Develop a monitoring, reporting and verification framework to monitor implementation;

Identify opportunities for appropriate financial and economic policy initiatives that will enhance implementation of the strategies.

ES.4 Methodology and approach This LCDS has been prepared using a combination of analytical and stakeholder consultation processes. The analysis aspect focused mainly on providing evidence for understanding the historical relationship between economic growth and GHG emission patterns in the last 24 years. Based on the results from observed historical relationship between economy and emission growth as well the expected future development prospects for the country, the LCDS projected three emission scenarios – (i) no action scenario, (ii) scenario with measures and (iii) scenarios with additional measures) for the year 2030. On the basis of the projected scenarios, emission reduction potential was assessed for a set of prioritized mitigation actions in selected economic sectors (transport, electricity, waste, Agriculture and Forestry). Prioritization of mitigation actions entailed the following steps: (i) identification of mitigation actions or technologies, (ii) screening of actions/technologies using a multi-criteria approach (which include inputs from marginal abatement cost curves) and (iii) scaling of mitigation actions or technologies based on the multi-criteria results. The results of the prioritization of the mitigation actions was used to develop a draft LCDS document which was subjected to both third party review and comprehensive stakeholder consultation. The processes for preparation of the LCDS was quite participatory. It involved stakeholders at all levels, particularly, those that are part of the existing climate change mitigation structures put in place for the preparation of National Communication to the UNFCCC. Development of the prioritization of the mitigation actions and the estimations for the baseline and mitigation scenarios were done by specially constituted working groups from the prioritized sectors. Several meetings and workshops were organized to discuss and approve underlying estimation assumptions, methodologies, data types as well as identification and selection of and mitigation actions or technologies.

The draft strategy was sent to relevant public and private agencies for their inputs. Specific experts and advisors from government, CSOs, private sector and academia, development partners, etc., were also invited to review the document. An external independent reviewer was also asked to review the document with the support of UNEP-DTU. A key element of the LCDS development and approval process is the national validation workshop that brought together experts from both public, private and the wider CSO to ground-truth and validate the LCDS. The LCDS document was officially at the side event during the twenty-first conference of parties (COP 21) meeting in Paris, France.

ES.5 Historical GHG Emission Trends Historical emissions trends showed an increase in total emissions from 14.2 MtCO2e in 1990 to 33.7 MtCO2e in 2012. The increases in the emission trends corresponded to the on-going structural transformation which has led to the growth and expansion of the national economy. The expansion in the economy had resulted in notable rise in emissions from road transport, electricity generation from thermal plants, increasing demand for biomass use, solid and liquid waste disposal and deforestation. Out of the total emissions of 33.7 MtCO2e, carbon dioxide (CO2) constituted the major share of 44% followed by N2O (31%) and CH4 (25%). With regards to sectoral distribution of emissions, the AFOLU sector is the largest source followed by energy, waste and industrial process sectors. The analysis also showed that the total net GHG emissions grew along with rising population, GDP and energy consumption. (Table 1). Table 1: Macroeconomic indicators relevant to GHGs for Ghana

Indicators 1990 2000 2006 2010 2012 Change (%)

1990-2012 2010-2012

Population 14.43 18.91 21.88 24.23 25.87 79.3 6.8

GDP (Constant 2006 USD billion)* 5.51 8.39 20.33 16.95# 16.78# 204.5 -1

TPES (Mtoe)** 5.29 7.74 9.06 9.32 11.77 122.49 26.29

Final Consumption (Mtoe)*** 4.31 5.41 6.01 6.46 8.16 89.33 26.32

Total Electricity Generated (GWh)

*** 5,721 7,223 8,430 10,167 12,024 110 18

of which Hydroelectric (GWh)*** 5,721 6,609 5,619 6,996 8,071 41 15

of which Oil Products (GWh)*** 0 614 2,811 3,171 3,953 0 25

Total Electricity Consumed***

(GWh) 4,462 6,067 7,362 8,317 9,258 107 11

GDP per capita* (Current USD thousand)

0.4 0.26 0.93 1.33 1.6 300 20.3

TPES per capita (toe) 0.37 0.41 0.41 0.38 0.45 21.62 18.42

Final Consumption per capita (toe) 0.30 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.31 3.33 19.2

GHG emissions per capita (t CO2 e) 0.39 0.45 0.57 0.64 0.71 82.05 10.9

GHG emissions per GDP unit (kg CO2e /2005 USD)

1.02 1.03 1.09 1.06 1.00 -1.9 –6.2

Energy Intensity (toe/2005 GDP) 0.96 0.92 0.45 0.55 0.70 -26.9 27.7

* Source: World Bank, National Account (2014), ** Source: International Energy Agency, *** Source: National Energy Statistics. This also takes into account electricity export to neighboring countries and total hours of electricity load shedding. #: Decline in GDP was the result of revision in GDP figures by Ghana Statistical Service

ES. 6.1 Business as usual emission trajectory Business as usual emissions3 is estimated to be 75 MtCO2e by 2030 starting from baseline emission of 19.5 MtCO2e in 2010. Under BAU, emissions are likely to rise from 19.5 MtCO2e in 2010 to 37.8 MtCO2e in 2020, to 53.5 MtCO2e in 2025 and 75 MtCO2e in 2030. The projected BAU in 2030 did not include any emissions that will be associated with any future development in the extractive industry. Furthermore, in making sure the baseline emissions are realistic and honest, the expected emissions that will arise from Ghana’s intentions to explore opportunities using clean coal technology in public electricity generation mix to meet its energy security objectives are included in the business as usual emissions. The BAU emissions driven by the following four factors: (i) demography including rate of urbanization, (ii) policy dynamics in energy, transport, forest and waste; (iii) national and international commodity price determinants and (iv) good governance credentials.

ES. 6.2 GHG emissions reduction goal Two emission reduction scenarios have been formulated and these are unconditional and conditional emission reduction scenarios. Under unconditional emission reduction goal, emission reduction will occur with the implementation of mitigation actions with support mobilized unilaterally by government of Ghana. Thus, Ghana’s goal is to unconditionally lower its GHG emissions by 15 percent relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario emission of 74 MtCO2e4 by 2030. An additional 30 percent emission reduction is attainable on condition that external support is made available to Ghana to cover the full cost of implementing the mitigation actions (finance, technology transfer, capacity building). With this external support, a total emission reduction of 45% below the BAU emission levels can be achieved by 2030.

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Em

issi

ons

(MtC

O2e

)

Conditional emission reduction trajectory

Unconditional emission reduction trajectory

Business as usual emissions

15%

30%

ES. 6.3 Emission reduction actions

In all, 19 mitigation program of actions 5 in five priority economic sectors (energy, transport, waste, agriculture and forest and industry) are being proposed for implementation in the 10-year period. The implementation of the actions is expected to help attain the GHG emission reduction objectives in the following priority areas:

Policy Actions Program of Action Supporting national policy & measures Status Investment Needs (mil $)

Co-benefits

Scale up renewable energy penetration by 10% by 2030

Increase small-medium hydro installed capacity up to 150-300MW

National Energy Policy

National Renewable Energy Act (Act 832).

Set up feed-in-tariff for renewable energy technologies.

Establishment of national renewable energy fund

Design renewable energy purchase obligation.

Net metering scheme for households

Conditional 2,214 Job creation opportunities through installation and maintenance of about 127.5 million man hours.

Reduced consumption of fossil fuel consumption for power generation.

Increased electricity access to rural communities and contributed to realize energy security.

Electricity demand saving of about 200MW

Attain utility scale wind power capacity up to 50-150MW

Attain utility scale solar electricity installed capacity up to 150-250MW

Establish solar 55 mini-grids with an average capacity of 100kW which translates to 10MW

Scale up the 200,000 solar home systems for lighting in urban and selected non-electrified rural households

Promote clean rural households lighting

Increase solar lantern replacement in rural non-electrified households to 2 million.

Sustainable Energy Action Plan

National Bioenergy Strategy

Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies

300 Avoided GH¢74 million subsidy on kerosene annually.

Kerosene savings to the nation of 60,000liters, 150,000liters and 390,000liters.

Expand the adoption of market-based cleaner cooking solutions

Scale up adoption of LPG use from 5.5% to 50% peri-urban and rural households up to 2030.


National Natural Gas Master Plan.

National LPG Program

0.6 39,500 hectares of woodland is saved from degradation.

Reduction in indoor pollution resulting from wood fuel usage.

Reduction in smoke related respiratory and eye diseases

Reduction in household cooking fuel expenditure

Scale up access and adoption of 2 million efficient cook stoves up to 2030

50

5 “

Job creation through the manufacture and sale of efficient stoves

Double energy efficiency improvement to 20% in power plants

Scale up 120 MSCF6 natural gas replacement of light crude oil for electricity generation in thermal plants.


Unconditional 1,000 Depending on demand scenarios, savings are estimated to be between US$67 million and US$610 million.

Projected fuel cost savings over the lifetime of the project are expected to be between US$94 million and US$109 million, based on the mid-level gas demand projection.

Income tax - Projected income taxes to be paid by WAPCo to Ghana over the lifetime of the project is in the range of US$466 million to US$588 million.

Scale up Sustainable mass transportation

Expansion of inter and intra city mass transportation modes (Rail and bus transit system) in 4 cities 7

National Transport Policy Conditional 1,201 Number of trips by public transportation increased by 10% in the 4 cities.

Number of NMT trips increase by 5% in intervened areas.

Reduction in travel time by at least 8 minutes per trip by public transport.

Traffic congestion levels decreased.

Promote Sustainable utilization of forest resources through REDD+

Continue 10,000ha annual reforestation/afforestation of degraded lands

National Forest and Wildlife Policy. National Plantation Development Strategy

Unconditional 1,050 Annual 29,000 jobs created.

Annual production of 370 metric tons of staple food Double 10,000ha annual reforestation/afforestation of

degraded lands translating to 20,000ha on annual basis.

Conditional 1,750

Support enhancement of forest carbon stocks through 5,000ha per annum enrichment planting and enforcement of timber felling standards.

National Forest and Wildlife Policy. Timber Resource Utilization Regulation

Conditional 60 Biodiversity conservation

45%8 emission reduction through result-based emission reduction program in cocoa landscape.

National Forest and Wildlife Policy National REDD+ strategy

Conditional 2,067 Increase 20,000 cocoa farmer incomes by doubling the average yield per hectare.

In reducing deforestation and degradation, the program will help to maintain and conserve the

6 7 8

biodiversity that is found within the cocoa-forest landscape.

Wildfire management in the transition and savannah dry lands in Ghana

Conditional 26 Reduce emissions of short-lived climate pollutants.

Reduce deforestation and improve biodiversity conservation especially in the drylands.

Improve degraded lands for productive use.

Adopt alternative urban solid waste management

Improve effectiveness of urban solid collection from 70% to 90% by 2030 and disposed all to an engineered landfills for phase-out methane recovery from 40% in 2025 to 65% by 2030

National Sanitation Strategy. National Bioenergy Strategy.

National Renewable Energy Act (Act 832)

Environmental Protection Act (Act 490) Environmental Assessment Regulation

(LI. 1652)

Sustainable Energy Action Plan.

Conditional 15 Job creation of about 9 million man hours for 15 years based 250 people working for 8 hours /day.

Improved urban sanitation and waste management.

Improved agricultural yield through the availability of organic fertilizer.

Reduced inorganic fertilizer bill to government

Scale up 200 institutional biogas in senior high schools and prisons nation wide

5

Double the current waste to compost installed capacity of 180,000tonne/annum by 20309.

60

Double energy efficiency improvement to 20% in industrial facilities

Scaling up of installation of power factor correction devices in 1,000 commercial and industrial facilities (capacitor banks).

National Energy Policy Power factor surcharge for bulk

electricity consumers.

Sustainable Energy Action Plan.

Conditional 8.4 Reduction in electricity demands and expenditure. Direct electricity cost saving to consumers. With an average monthly maximum demand savings of $ 300 avoided power factor surcharge.

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Proper implementation of LCDS in Ghana will require significant efforts at all levels - national, regional, district and local. Overall, this will require ensuring that market prices are changed to reflect the environmental and social cost of resource consumption and production, coupled with efficient laws, regulation and incentives that allow the private sector to invest in eco-efficient technologies.

Financial

For a developing country like Ghana where the basic infrastructure, technology and the capacity is inadequate, a relatively high percentage of the share of GDP and investment will be required to implement the strategy effectively. These funds could be sourced from both international sources such as the Adaptation Fund, International Clean Technology Research and Development fund (e.g. R&D endowments of various APP countries), Global Research and Development Fund, Venture Capitalists, etc., Global Pension Funds, International Climate Initiative (IKI); NAMA Facility; Global Environment Facility; Latin American Investment Facility (LAIF); EU-Africa Infrastructure Trust Fund (ITF); Neighborhood Investment Facility (NIF); Austrian NAMA Initiative; Support for Activities related to sustainable management of forests; ODA for Climate Change Measures; Spanish NAMA Platform; Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)- Support for the design, development and implementation of NAMAs in the LAC region; NEFCO Carbon Finance and Funds; and UNDP MDG Carbon and Funds from other carbon reduction options (e.g. Voluntary Markets). Public funds may be required to match private funds in low carbon projects largely as a result of the perceived risks in some of the projects and therefore should will play a key role in kick-starting the implementation of the strategy and catalyzing the transition by leveraging private funds largely as a result of the SD benefits of low carbon projects. Potential sources of domestic funds include: Funds from the implementation of Environmental Fiscal Reforms, Proposed Ghana Green Fund (MoF), Environmental Fund (Environmental Protection Agency), Renewable Energy Fund (Energy Commission) (EC), Pension Funds/provident funds – (Social Security and National Insurance Trust) and other, Equity Funds.

Capacity and institutional strengthening

Strategies to implement the LCDS should initially focus on building the institutional and human capacities at different levels of government in the area of implementation and monitoring of the strategies and later on the private sector, especially small and medium-sized enterprises not only in the use of the new knowledge and technologies associated with the transition to a low carbon development pathway but also to take full advantage of the business opportunities that the transition offers. Efforts should also be made at upgrading the skills and capacities of the workforce and to create awareness on the transition to a low-carbon growth path.

Technology

Technology is a major factor that can increase productivity in all sectors of the economy. With the widespread potential impacts of climate change, technological solutions become more imperative than ever. There is a need for strategic partnerships between local and international institutions that aims at technology transfer and diffusion at all levels. Such technologies should also be affordable, physically accessible, easy to use and maintain and flexible enough to accommodate user demands through various instruments.

Regulation – legislation

Proper implementation of the mitigation actions should involve a clear system that will regulate prices of natural resources, pollution and standards of production and performance as well as clear policies in almost all the sectors. Institutional overlaps and weaknesses, poor administrative structure and corruption as well as poor enforcement of rules and regulations that exist today will constrain implementation and consequently reduce their effectiveness of proposed mitigation actions. Lack of proper integration of the sectors with the environmental sector during policy formulation, non-existence of labels/standards for some technologies, products/processes poses a challenge. There will also be the need to enhance regulation and legislative instruments to address the poor division of authority and coordination among government bodies. The issues of poor interaction with research and development institutions, universities, technical colleges and poor dynamic environment arising from irregular industry interaction which is important for improving implementation should all be addressed.

A comprehensive institutional framework has been identified to facilitate the implementation of the strategy that is in line with national structures. At the strategic level, the Office of the President, Parliamentary Select Committee of the Environment and the Environment and Natural Resource Advisory Council are the main institutions. At the planning, budgeting and overall coordination level, the NDPC, MESTI and MoF are the main national institutions responsible for SD and consequently the implementation of the LCDS. Clear roles and responsibilities have been identified for these institutions together with MDAs and MMDAs to ensure the effective implementation of the strategy.

The monitoring, reporting and verification framework of the LCDS will be linked to the national Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of development activities by the NDPC in order to improve synergies and to reduce duplication of efforts. The MRV framework aims at monitoring GHG emissions or reduction attributed to a particular mitigation action, climate-related support, as well as sustainable development benefits of mitigation actions. In the framework, a particular mitigation action at the project level will feed into the program level which will ultimately feed into the national monitoring process and reported through the Bi-annual Update Report (BUR) and GHG Inventory Reports and submitted to the UNFCCC. Verification of the action at the project and Program levels will enable the confirmation of the project at the local level as well as helping to review the project and the overall framework in general. The design and operationalization of the framework will involve four steps: planning and design, integration, piloting and testing and functional deployment from 2015 to 2020. The inventory of existing MRV data generation points will be set into a network of data sharing web via the central climate data hub. The network will be deployed as an MRV prototype by 2015. It will track climate change indicators in all the sectors and report them annually through the Annual Progress Report (APR) of the NDPC.

A long-term development framework of 40-year time horizon, starting from 2018 and ending in 2057 has been proposed by government of Ghana. The 40-year plan will serve as policy backbone to the NCCP. However, in the medium term, GSGDA II (2014-2017) document lays out sustainable socio-economic transformation agenda for the country. The GSGDA II is to ensure continued pursuit of macroeconomic stability and the sustainable exploitation of Ghana’s natural resource endowments that will propel the country into a full middle income status by 2020 with a per capita income of US$ 3000. The GSGDA II has mainstreamed climate change into all its thematic areas (see Box 1). The implementation of the framework may not lead to emissions reduction and sustainable development benefits if proper mitigation policies are not put in place. To partially resolve this challenge, the NCCP was developed and approved by cabinet. With the development of the policy, a notable observation was that without specific actions, the mitigation objectives outlined in the policy may not be achieved. It therefore became imperative to develop this LCDS to facilitate the operationalization of the mitigation objectives of the NCCP in a way that will enhance the overall development agenda. Because the LCDS is considered a living document, the priorities and the strategies in it will be constantly updated to reflect direction of economic development. In order to achieve the desirable transformation impacts we want especially on sustainable development, the design and implementation of the LDCs will be driven by a high level motivation grounded on the key elements in the vision and mission.

Ghana has ratified the three main Rio Conventions and the Kyoto Protocol. The country has taken several steps to meet its obligations under these conventions in particular the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. Like many other developing countries, Ghana has recognized its vulnerability to climatic risks as well as the opportunities it presents to economic development. Therefore, the steps Ghana has taken to combat climate change first focuses on consolidating the development gains it has made through effective adaptation and secondly tap into the investment opportunities climate mitigation offer to the economy. By so doing, the GSGDA II, which is the current national policy framework had climate change adaptation and mitigations mainstreamed into the thematic areas. Various sectors have also formulated policies, legislations and measures that have direct and indirect implications on climate change mitigation and adaptation. For example, the Renewable Energy Act (Act 832) aims at achieving a 10 percent renewable energy share in total energy consumption. Table 2 summarizes policies, legislation and measures formulated by the various Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) that have bearings on climate change. Table 2: Climate change related national policies, legislation and measures

Policy Instrument Comments National Policy on Public Private Partnership

Legislations/ Measures/Instruments

Mobilizing public and private financing to support infrastructure and service delivery.

National Budget Guidelines

Local Government Act (Act 462)

Guide Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs) in budgeting for Climate Change activities in their annual budgets.

Environmental Fiscal Reform Program

15 percent Environmental Tax on Plastics with exemption on Pharmaceutical and agricultural sectors

Mobilize funds at the national level to support proper waste disposal.

Ghana Green Funds Raise additional resources to support climate change programs in Ghana

Decentralized planning system

National Development Planning System Act (Act 480)

Relevant to mainstreaming of climate change to national, sectoral and district medium term plans

National Climate Change Policy

Framework for addressing climate change. Complete effort of NDPC to facilitate mainstreaming of climate change

National Environment Policy

Framework for addressing Environment. Complete effort of NDPC to facilitate mainstreaming of environment.

Environmental Assessment

Environmental Assessment Regulations (Legislative Instrument (LI) 1652, 199)

Addressing climate change issues at the project level through, licensing and other instruments.

Akoben Environmental Protection Agency Act, Act 490

Performance and disclosure rating system for industry, mining and oil marketing companies. Cleaner Production

Energy Policy Renewable Energy Act Feed-in-Tariff scheme Renewable energy fund

Provide framework for renewable energy promotion.

National Energy Fund Funding for energy research and seed capital for development of renewable systems

Energy Efficiency Standards and Labelling Regulations, 2005 (LI 1815), Energy Efficiency Standards And Labelling (Household Refrigerating Appliances) Regulations, 2009 (LI 1958)

Obligation to display a label which indicates the energy efficiency rating of the product before the first retail sale. It is an offence under LI 1815 to import, display for sale or sell Air Conditioners and Compact Fluorescent Lamps in Ghana unless they meet the minimum performance standards and are properly labelled.

http://www.energycom.gov.gh/files/LI1958.pdf




Energy Efficiency Regualtions,2008 (LI 1932)

Prohibition of Manufacture, Sale or Importation of Incandescent Filament Lamp, Used Refrigerators, Used Refrigerator-Freezers, Used Freezers and Used Air-Conditioners.

Automatic utility and petroleum price formulae

Phasing out subsidies on utility and petroleum products

National Transport Policy

10-year over-aged vehicle importation tax

Disincentive/penalty for importing over-aged vehicles.

Annual road worthy certification for all vehicles

Yearly physical inspection of vehicles before road worthy certification is issued.

Motor Emission Standards Proposed standards for mobile and stationery engine emissions and fuel economy.

National Forest and Wildlife Policy

Stumpage Fees Surcharge on timber Annual allowable cuts Cut off threshold of volumes of timber harvested

every year. Ban on chain saw operations Timber certification Implementation of Timber Certification through the

Voluntary Partnership Agreement with the European Union

From table 2 it could be seen that much is being done to ensure that issues of climate change mitigation and adaptation are addressed. Although some steps are being taken to address climate change as observed from table 2, the same cannot be said in the area of implementation of these policies. This is because national budget formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation is yet to comprehensively reflect climate change issues. Nonetheless, in 2014 national budget, total budgeted expenditure of 14 MDAs amounted to GH₵ 637 million which is equivalent of two percent of

government expenditure and 0.5 percent of GDP10. The shortfall in public expenditure at the national level led to significant inflows of international climate finance. For the period 2010-2014, a total of USD 1.2 billion11 of international climate financial inflows were recorded12. The international climate inflows went directly into 91 programs and projects. The distribution of these funds as indicated in figure 1 shows that majority of the funds have gone to the energy sector followed by the forestry and finance sectors. Details of the projects and programs have been provided as Appendix 1.

All these policies, legislations, programs and measures have guided the implementation of climate change activities and indicates the commitment of the government of Ghana to tackle the issues of climate change. Evidently, the implementation of a LCDS will not only go to support the implementation of these policies but also provide a framework for enhancing the implementation of climate change component in these policies, programs, legislation and measures.

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http://www.energycom.gov.gh/files/LI_1932.pdf

In order to ensure that climate change spending receives the needed attention in the national budget, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the NDPC revised the national planning and budgeting guidelines to take into climate change considerations. It is when national planning and budgeting incorporates climate change as priority public spending area that the MDA and MMDAs can respond in their national budgets. It is also important to mention that the indicators for the District Functional Organizational Assessment Tool (FOAT) already cover issues on climate change. Plans are far advanced for the implementation of Environmental Fiscal Reform Program that aims at shifting the tax base and burden away from conventional taxes, such as taxes on economic goods - labour, investment and consumption to environmentally damaging activities, such as use of natural resources or pollution.

Since 2000 Ghana has implemented three medium term development strategies - Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy I (GPRS I) (2003-2005), Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (GPRS II) (2006-2009), the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda I (GSGDA I) 2010-2013 and currently implementing the GSGDA II from 2014 to 2017. A critical analysis of these documents suggest that the government of Ghana has continuously enhanced the three pillars of sustainable development – economic, social and environment in all these frameworks. Following the ex-post integration of the environment into the GPRS I, which aimed at achieving the poverty reduction objectives of the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals, the GPRS II shifted towards accelerating economic growth to enable Ghana achieve middle-income status. The GSGDA I enhanced the integration of sustainable development and mainstreamed climate change into all its activities.

Implementation of these frameworks has yielded some results even though the gains made are marginal and difficult to sustain giving the current growth path which is heavily dependent on natural resources, weak domestic value addition, poor savings and the vulnerability of the country to external shocks. It is for this reason that a paradigm shift towards the implementation of a LCDS becomes more imperative.

This is evidenced by the average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth that has improved from about 4.3 between 1990 and 1999 to about 7.2 percent between 2001-2013, reaching an all–time high of 14.4 percent in 2011, largely attributed to oil production in late 2010. Rebasing of GDP from 1993 to 2006 in 2010 did not only enable per capita GDP to increase from US$ 1, 067 in 2000 to USD 1,652

20 254 16 13 5 8

748.8

161.8

90.0 31.8117.4

25.9 32.9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Energy Forestry Transport Environment Finance Agriculture Others

No of Projects Amounts

US$ 2011, putting the country in the lower middle income category but together with the oil find has led to a change in the structure of the economy with the services sector being the largest contributor to GDP, followed by the industrial sector and the agricultural sector. A major challenge is how to increase growth and sustain it for a long period which is a required condition for poverty reduction - the ultimate goal of the country.

Low level investments evidenced by low level domestic savings to GDP ratio has led to more investments coming from external sources which deepens dependency on external aid and renders the country vulnerable. Overall, external debt as a ratio of Gross National Income (GNI) has averaged about 86 percent in the decade (1991-2000) but improved to about 67.2 in the decade 2001-2010, largely as a result of the debt relief from the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative. Overall improvement in the economic conditions has yielded some social dividends since many of the social indicators have improved. Specifically, key social indicators such as fertility rate, life expectancy, Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR), Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR), literacy rates among adults aged 15 and above, primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment ratio have all improved. Poverty has reduced significantly from about 51.7 percent in 1992 to about 28.5 percent in 2006 even though there are growing income and non-income inequalities especially between the three northern Regions and the rest of the country. Also, inequality measured by the Gini coefficient has increased from 35.3 percent in 1991/1992 to 39.4 percent in 2005/06 together with unemployment which has increased from about 4.7 percent in 1992 to 10.4 percent in 2006.

With regards to the environmental dimension of sustainable development, more needs to be done as many of the environmental indicators are deteriorating. Natural resource depletion has been increasing together with fossil fuel energy consumption whilst forest degradation continues to be a major problem. The 1992 Constitution of Ghana through the Directive Principles of State Policy and Articles 36 (1) and 36 (9)13 provides the basis for economic, social and environmental development. In line with these Articles, the country’s socio-economic transformation agenda has been set out in the GSGDA II. The document was formulated to ensure continued pursuit of macroeconomic stability and the sustainable exploitation of Ghana’s natural resource endowments that will propel the country into a full middle income status by 2020.

The strategic priority interventions in the transformation agenda that relates to climate change are anchored on the accelerated agricultural transformation and sustainable natural resource management pillar. The document has admitted that climate change is a major challenge that has the ability not only to erode the little development gains made over the past two decades but could hinder further growth and sustainable development, and consequently mainstreamed climate change into all its thematic areas. Key strategies identified in the GSGDA II that have bearings on climate change mitigation include the promotion of energy efficiency in all aspects of life; improvement of transport services and facilities; promotion of sustainable forest management and implementation of forest governance initiatives; education and efficient management practices; improvement of waste management mechanisms and the development of a long-term national Low Carbon Growth (LCG) approach towards sustainable development.

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Following the development of the GSGDA II, the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) was developed and approved by Cabinet. The vision of the policy is to “Ensure a climate-resilient and climate-compatible economy while achieving sustainable development through equitable low-carbon economic growth for Ghana”, The policy has prioritized five main areas - Agriculture and Food Security, Disaster Preparedness and Response, Natural Resource Management, Equitable Social Development Energy, Industrial and Infrastructural Development which has been subdivided into ten program areas.

With the development of the NCCP, it was vital to develop a LCDS to operationalize the mitigation component of the NCCP since without a proper strategy the mitigation goals outlined in the policy may not be achieved. The mitigation actions that have been elaborated in Ghana’s INDC and the various sector policies as well as the 55 selected NAMAs that were submitted to the UNFCCC guided the selection of actions in the LCDS. This makes the NCCP and the GSGDA II the anchor for the LCDS.

Preparing Ghana’s low carbon development strategy is important for several reasons. One major reason is that it provides a new thinking and added dimension to sustainable development. A new sustainable development approach that guarantees multiple opportunities for real economic growth, greenhouse gas emission reductions and building resilience. Apart from the climate benefits Ghana stands to derive from LCDS, it also provides leverage to attract clean investments and help achieve poverty reduction goals in many respects of the economy. Here are some of the opportunities we anticipate from LDCS:

Increase access to clean, affordable and reliable electricity for all.

Contribute to the modernization of traditional energy source which is prevalent in rural areas.

Reduce health risk from indoor pollution associated with the use of wood fuel for cooking,

Ensure efficiency in the use of resources arising from inefficient policies and weak natural resource governance,

Enhance food security through sustainable land management,

Capture new economic opportunities from the introduction of new fuels such as biofuels, ensuring the introduction of new technologies, especially in energy,

Strive toward a more diversified and sustainable economy in addition to co -benefits, such as cleaner air in cities and homes,

Reduce congestion on streets especially in urban cities and Improve urban waste management.

Ghana submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to UNFCCC in September, 2015. In the INDC Ghana put forward mitigation targets to unconditionally reduce its economy-wide CO2 emissions from 2010 (base year) by 15% relative to BAU scenario emissions of 74 MtCO2e by 2030 (target year). Furthermore, an additional 30% emission reduction could be achieved if external support covering the full cost of implementing the mitigation action (finance, technology transfer, capacity building) is made available to Ghana. In the 10-year period, Ghana needs USD 22.6 billion in investments from domestic and international public and private sources to finance these actions (USD 6.3 billion is expected to be mobilized from domestic sources and USD 16.3 billion is expected to be mobilized from international sources). In all 19 mitigation actions are identified for implementation in order to attain the emission target Ghana has set for itself in the INDC. The high level of ambition of these mitigation actions and the great deal of impacts it is likely to have on sustainable development informed the selection of these actions. Apart from helping Ghana to meet its emission reduction target, these mitigation actions, when implemented are expected to considerably contribute to align the ongoing socio-economic transformation to a low carbon pathway. Therefore, Ghana’s LCDS will seek to provide the vehicle to translate the INDC program of actions into implementable activities backed by clear institutional, financial and monitoring mechanism.

The overall objective of this strategy is to contribute to global climate change mitigation through the development of an economically efficient and comprehensive LCDS for Ghana together with a monitoring reporting and verification system and an action plan. The specific objectives include:

Assess the current climate change mitigation policies/strategies and challenges including those identified in Ghana’s INDC;

Provide a clear picture of the current situation with regards to major emission sources;

Provide a clear picture of future emissions based on what is happening currently (business as usual scenario);

Identify, analyze and develop long-term mitigation scenarios based on cost efficiency and effectiveness, and on national development aspirations;

Assess the potential barriers to implementing these strategies and recommendations for improvement;

Develop institutional frameworks to support the implementation of the strategies;

Develop action plans for the implementation of strategies in key sectors;

Develop a monitoring, reporting and verification framework to monitor implementation

Identify opportunities for appropriate financial and economic policy initiatives that will enhance implementation of the strategies.

The objectives of this LCDS will directly contribute to the country’s ability to achieve the national priorities set out in the transformational agenda of the government and the GSGDA II. In addition, the LCDS will contribute to the realization of the sustainable development goals of the country (Table 3).

Table 3: Relationships between LCDS, national development priorities and SDGs Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)

Priorities in the transformation agenda14

Medium term National development priorities (GSGDA 2)

National climate change policy priorities

Low carbon development strategy priorities

Goal 1: No Poverty

a strong and resilient economy

Ensuring and sustaining macroeconomic stability, Enhancing competitiveness of Ghana’s private sector, Accelerated agriculture modernization and sustainable natural resource management

Energy, Industrial and Infrastructural Development

Promote clean rural households lighting Expand the adoption of market-based cleaner cooking solutions.

Goal 2: Zero Hunger

Agriculture and food security. (Focus area 1: develop climate resilient agriculture and food systems)


Goal 3: Good health and well being

expanding infrastructural services

Infrastructure and human settlements development

Disaster preparedness and response. (Focus area 2: build climate resilient infrastructure)


Equitable social development (Focus area 7: minimise impacts of climate change on access to water

and sanitation)

Goal 4: Quality education

investing in people

Human Development, Productivity and Employment

Equitable social development. (Focus area 6: addressing impacts of climate change on human health.

Goal 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

expanding infrastructural services

Oil and gas development Infrastructure and human settlements development


Scale up renewable energy penetration by 10% by 2030. Promote clean rural households lighting Expand the adoption of market-based cleaner cooking solutions. Double energy efficiency improvement to 20% in power plants

Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth

investing in people

Human Development, Productivity and Employment

Equitable social development (focus area 8: addressing gender issues in climate change) Equitable social development (focus area 9: Address climate change and migration) (focus area 3: increase resilience of vulnerable communities to climate related risks)



Ensuring and sustaining macroeconomic stability, Enhancing competitiveness of Ghana’s private sector, Accelerated agriculture modernization and sustainable natural resource management

Energy, Industrial and Infrastructural Development. Focus area 5: Improve management and resilience of Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems


Goal 12: Responsible consumption and production


Accelerated agriculture modernization and sustainable natural resource management



Goal 13: Climate Action


Ensuring and sustaining macroeconomic stability, Accelerated agriculture modernization and sustainable natural resource management

Energy, Industrial and Infrastructural Development Natural Resource Management (focus area 4:increase carbon sinks)


Goal 17: Partnerships

promoting transparent, accountable and responsive governance

Transparent, Responsive and Accountable Governance

Systematic pillars: governance and coordination; capacity-building; science, technology and innovation; finance, international cooperation; information, communication and education; monitoring and reporting.

Monitoring reporting and verification

The strategic areas of intervention in this LCDS are primarily selected based on these three factors:

Economic - (i) contribution to GDP; (ii) contribution to exports; (iii) contribution to resource diversification;

GHG emissions – (i) major emission source or removal, (ii) high potential for emission reduction; (iii) cost-effectiveness in emission reduction;

Social – (i) create jobs, (ii) support to social infrastructure and (iii) direct impacts on poverty reduction.

In the selection of priority sectors, factors other than GHG emission reduction potential such as economic and social were taken into account. In many respects using multiple criteria to select sector reflects how sustainable development considerations are incorporated in the preparation of the LCDS. Using the emission and the economic importance factors the following four sectors are considered as priority areas for the LCDS; energy, transport, AFOLU and waste. In the last 22 years, GHG emissions have shown a consistent rise alongside economic growth although the rate at which GHG emissions are increasing is faster than that of GDP. The emissions had increased from 14.2 MtCO2e in 1990 to 33.7 MtCO2e in 2012. Out of the total emissions of 33.7 MtCO2e, carbon dioxide (CO2) made up the majority share of 44% followed by N2O (31%) and CH4 (25%). In terms of sectors, AFOLU is the largest emissions source. The rest are energy, waste and industrial process sectors. The high emissions from AFOLU was as a result of rising forest deforestation and degradation and unsustainable land management practices. Land use change is driven by expansion of agricultural commodity plantations, unplanned logging, settlement sprawling and illegal mining. For the energy sector, majority of the emissions come from fuel use in road transport and crude or gas fired thermal electricity generation. Emissions from transport grew at a relatively high rate because of high urbanization and motorization rates. These two factors are mainly responsible for the usual heavy traffic congestion in many cities in the country. In addition, there are a good number of old vehicles on the road that do not conform to regular maintenance regimes. In the last couple of years, electricity from crude-fired or gas-fired thermal plants constitute a greater share of the grid power which hitherto was dominated by hydro sources. The shift in the mix from hydro to thermal accounts for the high carbon-intensive electricity generation. Under the waste sector, methane emissions that dominate are mainly from solid waste disposal using different treatment systems. The factors that drive the emissions in the sectors listed above are mainly policy, social, economic and technology related. The combine effects of drivers are reflected in the net economic outputs and the corresponding emission levels. Oil and gas, cocoa (beans and products) production, mining (gold, manganese, bauxite and diamond), timber are the main export commodities and source of foreign exchange for the country. These economic activities together drive Ghana’s GHG emissions on one hand and on the other hand provide major export and tax revenue for the country’s development15. Additionally, many Ghanaians depend on these sectors for their livelihood and incomes through direct and indirect jobs. There is no doubt that the same productive sectors that support the economy are the ones that drive GHG emissions. Therefore, it is important that any effort to reduce emissions must not in any way compromise Ghana’s ability to generate economic benefits it derives from these commodities now and in future. At best the emission reduction measures must rather enhance economic growth and better social opportunities. The line of action of this strategy has been carefully crafted in a way that it rather promotes growth as well as identify opportunities for emission reductions.

In designing and selecting the low carbon measures the existing interwoven relationship between GHG emissions and economic productivity and trade-offs thereof must be thoroughly understood. In this respect a careful evaluation of the effects of mitigation actions to ensure that the strategies selected are cost effective and in line with national development priorities has been highlighted. The intention here is to link mitigation activities to national strategies in order to embed them into development framework. Where they are already embedded in the national framework, they seeks to strengthen the level of integration to sustainable development. In the evaluation of the effect of mitigation, a model was done to estimate resource (energy, biomass and waste) demand and utilization as well the associated emissions. The analysis was done for a business as usual scenario beginning from 2010 up to 2030 and compared with the counterfactual mitigation scenario for the same period. The selection of the mitigation actions was done through a screening process which was informed by cost efficiency and national development priorities.

1.7.1 Prioritization of mitigation actions The prioritization process led to the selection of 19 mitigation actions in both energy and non-energy sectors. When the actions are implemented, it is expected to lead an unconditional 15% emission reduction and a further 30% if international support is made available to Ghana. Out of the 19 mitigation actions two of them will be implemented unilaterally by Ghana under the unconditional scenario. This means government of Ghana will mobilise resource to implement the unconditional mitigation actions. For the remaining 17 mitigation actions the level of implementation is contingent on the availability of international support. In the energy sector, the prioritized mitigation actions covered technologies in renewable energy; clean rural lighting; cleaner cooking solutions; energy efficiency improvement in industry and households; mass transport; and fuel diversification for thermal electricity generation. For the non-energy sectors including waste, forestry and agriculture (AFOLU) the selected mitigation actions covered biogas, landfill gas management and REDD+ (mainly carbon stock enhancement).

The mitigation technologies were selected based on a prioritization process that uses the multi criteria assessment tool (MCA). The MCA tool was used to screen the various technologies using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. The quantitative criteria relates to emission reduction potential, marginal cost of emission reduction and direct cost of investment. For the qualitative criteria, factors such as alignment with national development; job creation; social acceptability; dependence on local resource etc. were considered. In all the prioritization process generated the following mitigation technologies in order of decreasing importance: biogas, LPG stoves, improved stoves, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), solar systems, wind power, capacitor banks, fuel switch for electricity generation, afforestation and landfill gas management.

After prioritization 19 mitigation technologies emerged and their emission reduction potential were modelled according to unconditional and conditional scenarios. The unconditional scenario depicts implementation of the two selected mitigation actions with the expectation to contribute to achieve 15% unilateral mitigation targets. The two mitigation actions are fuel switch for thermal electricity generation and afforestation. Under conditional scenario, the implementation of the remaining 17 mitigation actions will take place with the view to realize additional 30% emission reductions if international support is provided to Ghana.

1.7.2 Energy sector mitigation actions The LEAP model was used to assess the GHG impacts of selected mitigation actions in the energy sector. The model uses energy intensity and socio economic data as inputs to project future energy demand and its associated GHG emissions. The projected energy demand and emissions was generated under business-as-usual (BAU) and mitigation scenarios for a 20-year (2010-2030) period with 2010 as the base year. The BAU scenario depicted a future development situation where no additional action is taken to change the status quo. On the contrary under the mitigation scenario, specific mitigation actions would be undertaken to change the status quo toward less-carbon intensive pathway. In the

mitigation scenario two options have been modelled. Under mitigation scenario option 1, the implementation of the 2 selected unconditional mitigation actions is projected to lead to a 15% deviation of BAU emissions by 2030. For the mitigation scenario option 2, implementation of the 17 conditional mitigation actions is expected to generate additional 30% emission reductions compared to the BAU emissions in the same period.

1.7.2.1 Business-as-usual emissions (scenario without measures) The projected emissions associated with the BAU scenario is likely to rise from 13.3 Million metric tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2010 to 63.6MtCO2e in 2030. Of this, 63% of the emissions will be associated with energy demand in transport, residential and industrial sectors. The remaining 37% of the emissions will come from transformation activities such as oil refining, charcoal production, electricity generation. The BAU will continue to be driven by factors including increasing population and urbanization, favorable price of traditional energy sources; subsidy rationalization on petroleum products and utilities as part of the deregulation policy; etc. In terms of gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) - 94% will continue to be the dominant greenhouse gas followed by methane (CH4) – 4% and Nitrous oxide (N2O) – 1%.

Under the BAU scenario, final energy demand has been projected for the 20-year period. Total final energy demand is projected to more than triple from 274.6 million GJ in 2010 to 716.7 million GJ in 2030. Out of the 716.7 million GJ, energy demand for transport will be the highest with 43% followed by residential (28%) and industry (22%). The remaining 7% of energy demand will come from VALCO (1%) Industry (5%) and Agriculture (1%).

Within transport, final energy demand will increase from 79.3 million GJ to 307.1 million GJ in the same period. The rise will correspond to the growing fuel use in passenger road transport particularly in cities where vehicular traffic is likely to increase. Energy demand in households has been projected to continue to rise from 144.7 million GJ in 2010 to 202.3 million GJ in 2030. Although the trend showed dominance of rural household energy demand (93.5 million GJ to 99.6 million GJ) after 2029 it is likely that the demand from urban household of 102.7 million GJ will take over. This observation may be due to the rate of urbanization and the associated changing lifestyles from better incomes. Similarly, the energy demand for industry is projected to grow from 37.8 million GJ to 155 million GJ in the same period. Majority of the demand is likely to come from manufacturing, mining and quarry operations. In terms of fuels, all the different fuel types will record some increases in demand apart from kerosene which is projected to decrease to the lowest possible levels. The reduction in kerosene demand can be attributed to the shift in the use of kerosene to LPG and electricity for lighting and cooking, especially in rural areas.

1.7.2.2 Mitigation scenario (scenario with measures) The GHG emissions that is associated with the mitigation scenario is presented in two parts. Those that are linked to unconditional measures and the others with conditional measures. In both cases specific policies and programmes will be implemented in help achieve the objectives set out under each of them. Some of the measures include the introduction of the renewable energy act out of which a feed-in-tariff rate, renewable energy fund and net metering schemes are established. Apart from the renewable energy measures, there is a strong push for universal access to electricity which is driving the diversification of fuel alternatives for thermal electricity towards cleaner and cheaper natural gas. There is also demand side energy efficiency measures that will continue to have positive impacts on future emissions. Currently energy efficiency standards cover few electronic appliances (i.e. fridges, air conditioners, bulbs), the plan is to expand to include 20 more appliances in the coming years. Furthermore, the policy to increase adoption of LPG utilization mainly in households will translate into future emission reductions.

Under unconditional mitigation scenario, GHG emissions are expected to decline by 15% compared to the projected BAU emission of 73.9 MtCO2e by 2030. The 15% mitigation targets translate into 11.1

MtCO2e in savings in nominal terms. The target will be achieved following the implementation of measures to facilitate fuel diversification for thermal electricity and the national forest plantation development programme. In the conditional mitigation scenario, 17 mitigation actions are expected to be implemented which is expected to result in an additional 30% emission reduction compared to the BAU emission of 73.9 MtCO2e by 2030. The GHG impacts of the 17 actions translate into 22.2 MtCO2e emission savings.

1.7.2.3 Emissions associated with unconditional measures The total emission savings under the unconditional mitigation scenario is estimated at 11.1 MtCO2e. Of this, 3.8 MtCO2e emission reductions will be generated from the implementation of natural gas replacement of light crude oil for thermal electricity generation. The emission reductions are likely to follow rising trend from 0.9 MtCO2e in 2020 to 1.3 MtCO2e in 2025 and 3.8 MtCO2e in 2030. The emission reduction is as a result of replacing crude oil for thermal electricity generation with cleaner and relatively cheaper natural gas.

1.7.2.4 Emissions associated with conditional measures The conditional mitigation measures cover both demand and transformation sectors in the energy sector. Out of the 17 conditional measures, 10 will be implemented under the energy sector with some associated emission reductions of 6.0 MtCO2e. This represented 27% of the total emission savings of 22.2 MtCO2e under the conditional mitigation scenario. The emission savings are projected to increase from 4.3 MtCO2e in 2020 to 4.9 MtCO2e to 6 MtCO2e in 2030.

1.7.3 AFOLU sector mitigation actions In the forestry sector, the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) software was used to assess the CO2 mitigation potential of different mitigation technologies. Data for the model came from the 2010 Land use matrix generated by the Forest Preservation Project of the Forestry Commission (FC). Two types of reforestation mitigation scenarios were considered based on incremental net benefit criteria - biomass pool and supply management (promotion of sustainable supply of land-based products) and reforestation (reforestation of convalescence production forests estimated at 122,000 ha in 2010. The assumption is that between the years 2010 and 2020, 12,200 ha of this area would have been recovered and the remaining 109,800 ha of degraded land will be continuously reforested till it gets to zero in 2030. In the AFOLU sector, there is one mitigation action under the unconditional mitigation scenario and four actions that will contribute to the conditional mitigation scenario.

The AFOLU mitigation actions were selected from the REDD+ activities particularly carbon stock enhancement. The unconditional mitigation action relates to continuing 10,000ha annual reforestation/afforestation of degraded lands. The implementation of this mitigation action is projected to come up to an emission reduction of 7.3 MtCO2e by 2030. The other four mitigation actions that have been selected under the conditional scenario (see table 4) are projected to generate additional 14.6 MtCO2e which represent 67% of the total emission savings. The emission savings from the four mitigation actions are expected to rise from 9.21 MtCO2e in 2020 then to 11.2 MtCO2e before reaching 14.6 MtCO2e in 2030.

The implementation of the AFOLU mitigation actions will be supported by priorities that have been laid out in the national REDD plus strategy, forest investment programme and the national forest plantation development programme. These initiatives are linked to the national forest and wildlife policy.

1.7.4 Waste sector mitigation actions In the waste sector the mitigation technologies that have been selected mainly relate to solid waste disposal. The technologies are broadly categorized according to different treatment systems and recycling technologies. These are based on technologies in biogas, compost and improvement in solid

waste collection. The mitigation potential for the technologies was estimated using the solid waste management (SWM)-GHG calculator developed by GIZ. The total emission savings of 1.4 MtCO2e which will accrue from the implementation of the technologies will form part of the conditional mitigation scenario. The emission savings are expected to rise from 0.11 MtCO2e in 2020 to 0.82 MtCO2e before reaching 1.4 MtCO2e in 2030. The projected rising trends in the emission savings will take place following the consistent implementation of the prioritized mitigation technologies.

The national environmental sanitation policy will be the major policy instrument that will drive the implementation of the selected mitigation actions. The extent of engagement of the private sector in solid waste management will contribute to the success of this strategy. Additionally, the leadership and city authorities’ support for the initiative shall be a positive incentive for the implementation of the mitigation actions.

As discussed in section 1.5, the overall objective of the LCDS is to ensure continuous reduction in GHG emissions and at the same time ensure sustainable growth and development. The objectives set out in the LCDS will be achieved through the implementation of prioritized mitigation actions in the energy and non-energy sectors. The mitigation actions have been selected on the basis that they will be politically correct, economically sound, socially acceptable, environmentally innovative and consequently consistent with Ghana’s development aspirations. The implementation of these actions will require the mobilization of adequate funding from both local and international sources as well as the facilitation and mainstreaming into national, district and sectoral plans and programs. Table 4 provides an action plan of the prioritized mitigation actions focusing on the sector, investment cost, abatement potentials, sustainable development benefits, lead agency and alignment with national policy.

Table 4: Action plan of prioritized low carbon development mitigation actions16 up to 2030 Strategic Focus Technology based mitigation

actions Supporting national policy & measures

Status Investment Needs (mil $)

Co-benefits Lead Agency

Scale up renewable energy penetration by 10% by 2030

Increase small-medium hydro installed capacity up to 150-300MW

National Energy Policy National renewable energy

Act (Act 832). Set up feed-in-tariff for

renewable energy technologies.

Establish national renewable energy fund

Design renewable energy purchase obligation.

Net metering scheme for households

Conditional 2,214 Job creation opportunities through installation and maintenance of about 127.5 million man hours.

Reduced consumption of fossil fuel consumption for power generation.

Increased electricity access to rural communities and contributed to realize energy security.

Electricity demand saving of about 200MW

Ministry of Power

Attain utility scale wind power capacity up to 50-150MW Attain utility scale solar electricity installed capacity up to 150-250MW Establish solar 55 mini-grids with an average capacity of 100kW which translates to 10MW Scale up the 200,000 solar home systems for lighting in urban and selected non-electrified rural households

Promote clean rural households lighting

Increase solar lantern replacement in rural non-electrified households to 2 million.


National bioenergy strategy Phasing out fossil fuel

subsidies

300 Avoided GH¢74 million subsidy on kerosene annually.

Kerosene savings to the nation of 60,000liters, 150,000 liters and 390,000 liters.

Ministry of Power

Expand the adoption of market-based cleaner cooking solutions

Scale up adoption of LPG use from 5.5% to 50% peri-urban and rural households up to 2030.



National LPG Program

0.6 39,500 hectares of woodland is saved from degradation.

Reduction in indoor pollution resulting from wood fuel usage.

Reduction in smoke related respiratory and eye diseases

Reduction in household cooking fuel expenditure

Job creation through the manufacture and sale of the efficient stoves

Energy Commission

Scale up access and adoption of 2 million efficient cook stoves up to 2030

50

Double energy efficiency improvement to 20% in power plants

Scale up 120 MSCF17 natural gas replacement of light crude oil for electricity generation in thermal plants.


Unconditional

1,000 Depending on demand scenarios, savings are estimated to be between US$67 million and US$610 million.

Projected fuel cost savings over the lifetime of the project are expected to be between US$94 million and US$109 million, based on the mid-level gas demand projection.

Income tax - Projected income taxes to be paid by WAPCo to Ghana over the lifetime of the project is in the range of US$466 million to US$588 million.

Ministry of Petroleum, Ministry of Power Ghana Gas Company Volta River Authority


Expansion of inter and intra city mass transportation modes (Rail and bus transit system) in 4 cities 18

National Transport Policy Conditional 1,201 Number of trips by public transportation increased by 10% in the 4 cities.

Number of NMT trips increase by 5% in intervened areas.

Reduction in travel time by at least 8 minutes per trip by public transport.

Traffic congestion levels decreased.

Ministry of Transport


Continue 10,000ha annual reforestation/afforestation of degraded lands

National Forest and Wildlife Policy. National Plantation Development Strategy

Unconditional

1,050 29,000 jobs created annually. Production of 370 metric ton of

staple food annually

Forestry Commission

Double 10,000ha annual reforestation/afforestation of degraded lands translating to 20,000ha on annual basis.

Conditional 1,750

Support enhancement of forest carbon stocks through 5,000ha per annum enrichment planting and enforcement of timber felling standards.

National Forest and Wildlife Policy. Timber Resource Utilization Regulation

Conditional 60 Biodiversity conservation Forestry Commission

17 18

45%19 emission reduction through result-based emission reduction program in cocoa landscape.

National Forest and Wildlife Policy National REDD+ strategy

Conditional 2,067 Increase 20,000 cocoa farmer incomes by doubling the average yield per hectare.

In reducing deforestation and degradation, the program will help to maintain and conserve the biodiversity that is found within the cocoa-forest landscape.

Wildfire management in the transition and savannah dry lands in Ghana

Conditional 26 Reduce emissions of short-lived climate pollutants.

Reduce deforestation and improve biodiversity conservation especially in the drylands.

Improve degraded lands for productive use.


Improve effectiveness of urban solid waste collection from 70% to 90% by 2030 and disposed all to engineered landfills for phase-out methane recovery from 40% in 2025 to 65% by 2030

National Sanitation Strategy. National Bioenergy Strategy. National Renewable Energy

Act (Act 832) Environmental Protection Act

(Act 490) Environmental Assessment

Regulation (LI. 1652) Sustainable Energy Action

Plan.

Conditional 15 Job creation of about 9 million man hours for 15 years based on 250 people working for 8 hours /day.

Improved urban sanitation and waste management.

Improved agricultural yield through the availability of organic fertilizer.

Reduced inorganic fertilizer bill to government

Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development, Private sector

Scale up 200 institutional biogas in senior high schools and prisons nation wide

5

Double the current waste to compost installed capacity of 180,000tonne/annum by 203020.

60


Scaling up of installation of power factor correction devices in 1,000 commercial and industrial facilities (capacitor banks).

National Energy Policy Power factor surcharge for

bulk electricity consumers. Sustainable Energy Action

Plan.

Conditional 8.4 Reduction in electricity demands and expenditure. Direct electricity cost saving to consumers. With an average monthly maximum demand savings of $ 300 avoided power factor surcharge.

Energy Commission

19 20

Proper implementation of Ghana’s LCDS will require significant efforts at all levels - national, regional, district and local level. Overall, this will require ensuring that market prices are changed to reflect the environmental and social cost of resource consumption and production, coupled with efficient laws, regulations and incentives that allow the private sector to invest in eco-efficient technologies. Specifically, such a paradigm shift – transitioning from the status quo to a low carbon growth path will require the mobilization of needed financial resources, putting in place policies to stimulate technology transfer, research and development, development of capacities, among others, to which we turn our attention.

1.9.1 Financial The implementation of a LCDS will require substantial financial resources. Globally, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) estimates that between 0.3 to 0.5 percent and 1.1 - 1.7 percent of global GDP and investment would be required by 2030 to address climate change respectively. For a developing country like Ghana where the basic infrastructure, technology and the capacity is inadequate, a relatively high percentage of the share of GDP and investment will be required to implement the strategy effectively. These funds could be sourced from both international and domestic sources. International sources of funds remain a critical source of funding for a developing country like Ghana in its quest to transition to a low carbon growth path. The objective of accessing such funds will be achieved if more efforts are made to address the current challenges that face the country in the area of accessing international climate funds. Possible sources of international funding for climate change mitigation actions include:

Green Climate Fund

Global Environment Facility

Funds from other carbon reduction options (e.g. Voluntary Markets)

International Clean Technology Research and Development fund (e.g. R&D endowments of various APP countries)

Global Research and Development Fund,

Venture Capitalists, etc.

Global Pension Funds

International Carbon Market

Private Capital Market

Corporate Social Responsibility Budgets

Globally, it has been estimated that a lot more funds reside in the private sector than the public sector. However, public funds may be required to match private funds in low carbon projects largely as a result of the perceived risks in some of the projects. Thus, public financing will play a key role in kick-starting the implementation of the strategy and catalyzing the transition. In addition, while private finance may focus more on private benefits-profitability which may not be a key objective of low carbon strategies, public funds can be used to leverage private funds largely as a result of the sustainable development benefits of low carbon projects.

One innovative area where local finance could be generated would be the implementation of Environmental Fiscal Reforms that will shift the tax burdens from traditional taxes such as taxes on goods, labour, investment and consumption to environmentally “bads” such as pollution and the use of natural resource. In general, potential sources of domestic funds include:

Proposed Ghana Green Fund - MoF

Environmental Fund – Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Renewable Energy Fund – Energy Commission (EC)

Pension Funds/provident funds – Social Security and National Insurance Trust and others

Equity Funds

1.9.2 Capacity and institutional strengthening Strategies to shift to a low carbon development path should be accompanied by policies and programs that will build the institutional and human capacities at all levels – national, regional, district and local levels. Such a strategy should initially focus on building the institutional and human capacities at different levels of government in the area of implementation and monitoring of the strategies and later on the private sector, especially small and medium-sized enterprises not only in the use of the new knowledge and technologies associated with the transition to a low carbon development but also to take full advantage of the business opportunities that the transition offers. Efforts should also be made at upgrading the skills and capacities of the workforce and to create awareness on the transition to a low-carbon growth path.

1.9.3 Technology Technology is a major factor that can increase productivity in all sectors of the economy. With the widespread potential impacts of climate change, technological solutions become more imperative than ever. Thus, leveraging technology especially in the field of information and communication has the potential to play a substantial role in accelerating the transition to a low carbon development economy. Any country with a strong capacity to produce, adapt and use technology, industrializes and advances socio-economically (EPA policy brief , technology).

Given the scale and complexity of the challenge, in terms of the gaps and resource needs for green technology, it is going to be difficult for the country to address the technological needs alone. There is a need for strategic partnerships between local and international institutions that aims at technology transfer and diffusion at all levels. Such technologies should also be affordable, physically accessible, easy to use and maintain and flexible enough to accommodate user demands through various instruments. Currently, technology transfer is mainly in the domain of the private sector. The public sector will need to assume a more proactive role in the transfer and adaptation of green technologies in the implementation of the strategy.

1.9.4 Regulation – Legislation Proper implementation of the mitigation actions should involve a clear system that will regulate prices of natural resources, pollution and standards of production and performance as well as clear policies in almost all the sectors. Institutional overlaps and weaknesses, poor administrative structure and corruption as well as poor enforcement of rules and regulations that exist today will constrain implementation and consequently reduce their effectiveness of proposed mitigation actions. Lack of proper integration of the sectors with the environmental sector during policy formulation, non-existence of labels/standards for some technologies, products/processes poses a challenge. There will also be the need to enhance regulation and legislative instruments to address the poor division of authority and coordination among government bodies. The issues of poor interaction with research and development institutions, universities, technical colleges and poor dynamic environment arising from irregular industry interaction which is important for improving implementation should all be addressed.

A comprehensive institutional framework has been identified to facilitate the implementation of the strategy that is in line with national structures. At the strategic level, the Office of the President, Parliamentary Select Committee of the Environment and the Environment and Natural Resource Advisory Council are the main institutions. At the planning, budgeting and overall coordination level, the NDPC, MESTI and MoF are the main national institutions responsible for sustainable development and consequently the implementation of the LCDS. Clear roles and responsibilities have been identified for these institutions together with MDAs and MMDAs to ensure the effective implementation of the strategy.

The monitoring, reporting and verification framework of the LCDS will be linked to the national Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of development activities in order to improve synergies and to reduce duplication of efforts. The MRV framework aims at monitoring GHG emissions or reduction attributed to a particular mitigation action, climate-related support, as well as sustainable development benefits of mitigation actions. In the framework, a particular mitigation action at the project level will feed into the program level which will ultimately feed into the national monitoring process and reported through the Bi-annual Update Report (BUR) and GHG Inventory Reports, and submitted to the UNFCCC. Verification of the actions at the project and Program level will enable the review of the framework. The design and operationalization of the framework will involve four steps: planning and design, integration, piloting and testing and functional deployment between 2015 and 2020. The inventory of existing MRV data generation points will be set into a network of data sharing web via the central climate data hub. The network will be deployed as an MRV prototype by 2015. It will track climate change indicators in all the sectors and report them annually through the Annual Progress Report (APR) of the NDPC. At the sectoral level, in particular energy and forestry sectors, the annual publication of the energy statistics and energy balance, and report from the implementation of the REDD+ program are the main channels.

2.1 Background and rationale

2.1.1 Geographic profile and population Ghana, with a total land area of 239,460 km2 is located in West Africa on the Guinea Coast and lies close to the equator between latitude 11.50N and 4.50S and longitude 3.50W and 1.30E. Figure 2 shows decomposition of land uses in Ghana. About 70 percent of the total land area of Ghana is used for agriculture. The country is made of two broad ecological zones –the forest and savannah zones. The forest zone covers much of the southern 30 percent of Ghana, whereas the savanna zone covers the drier northern 70 percent (MLNR, 2012). Ghana’s total forest cover is now less than 1 million hectares with an annual deforestation rate projected to be 1.5 percent.

The total population of Ghana in 2010 stood at 24,658,823, comprising 12,633,978 females and 12,024,845 males (GSS, 2012) with about 56.2 percent living in urban areas. The average annual population growth rate has decreased from 2.8 percent in 1990 to 2.4 percent in 2000 although it is still among the highest in the West Africa sub-region. With the average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent per annum, Ghana’s population is projected to reach 35 million by 2030, a situation that can intensify GHG emissions (figure 3). There are nearly 5.599 million households with an average size of 4.4 people per household. A stable political environment over the past three decades has translated into continuous economic growth. The average annual GDP growth rate has improved from about 2.2 percent between 1981-1990 to about 4.3 percent between 1991 and 2000 and further to about 5.8 percent between 2001 and 2010 (GSS, 2011). The discovery of crude oil in commercial quantities in July 2007 and subsequent investments in the sector has seen GDP grow at 13.6 percent in 2011 (MESTI, 2012). Today the country is classified as a Lower Middle Income Country and the service sector has overtaken agriculture as the biggest sector of the economy in terms of contribution to GDP. Stable economic growth has also translated into a considerable reduction in poverty and improvement in many other development indicators. Specifically, poverty has reduced from about 51.7 percent in 1991/1992 to about 28.5 percent in 2005/2006 (MESTI, 2012).

Agricultural Lands70%

Forest Lands

21%

Water4%

Built up…

2.1.2 Climatic trends and projections Ghana’s climate is tropical and therefore warm with variable temperatures which depends on season and elevation, and strongly influenced by the West Africa Monsoon winds. Two rainy seasons occur from April to July and from September to November, except in the northern part of the country where the rainy season begins in May and lasts until September. Several climate change models indicate that temperature has increased, rainfall is declining while the intensity is changing. A recent climate change model by McSweeny et. al. (2012)21 indicates that temperature has increased by 1.0OC since 1960, at an average rate of 0.21OC per year. The rate of increase has generally been more rapid in the northern regions of Ghana than in the south (table 5). The model also indicates that between 1960 and 2003 the average number of ‘hot’ days per year has increased by 48 (an additional 13.2 percent of days), the number of ‘hot’ nights per year increased by 73 (an additional 20 percent of nights), the frequency of cold days per year has decreased by 12 (3.3 percent of days) and the number of cold nights per year has decreased by 18.5 percent (5.1 percent of days).

.

Table 5: Climate Projections in Ghana

Climatic Variable Projections

Temperature Mean annual temperature projected to increase by 1. 0OC to 3.0OC by 2060s and 1.5OC to 5.2OC by 2090s.

Rate of warming most rapid in northern inland regions than coastal.

Projected changes in daily temperature extremes are largest in coastal areas and smaller inland.

Substantial increases in frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘hot’.

Projected decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered cold. Precipitation Projected mean annual rainfall by different models varies widely with around half the

models projecting increases and the half projecting decreases in rainfall.

Proportion of total annual rainfall that falls in heavy events increases in all projections.

Projected changes in 1-and 5-day rainfall maxima tend towards increases

Sea level rise Sea level changes with respect to 1999 mean, predicts an average rise of 5.8cm, 16.5cm and 34.5 cm by 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively.

Source: McSweeny et. al. (2012)

Observed records of showed high variability in inter-annual and inter-decadal rainfall patterns which makes long-term trends detection difficult. The records also indicate that rainfall was particularly high in the 1960s and decreased to relatively low levels in the late 1970s as well as in the early 1980s at an average rate 2.3mm per month per decade (between 1960 and 2006). There is no ample evidence of a trend in the proportion of rainfall that falls in “heavy” events since 1960. Climate projections by the model as indicated in table 5, shows that the situation will worsen in future.

2.1.3 Potential impacts of climate change Climate change is one of the most important developmental challenges facing the world today. Scientific evidence has confirmed that climate change presents serious risks and therefore demands urgent global response. Specifically, climate change threatens the existence of basic natural resources – water, land and forests on which livelihoods of many people around the world, especially the rural people depends. In fact, climate change will have both direct and indirect effect on all economic activities. Like many developing countries, Ghana is vulnerable to climatic risks as a result of its geographical location and poor adaptive capacity. Figure 4 highlights some of potential impacts of climate change. As evidenced, the impacts are manifested extensively in the productive sectors (agriculture, water resources and fisheries). Agyeman Bonsu et. al (2008) have undertaken studies that has assessed the impacts of climate change on key sectors of the Ghanaian economy to be high and out of these studies a national climate change adaptation strategy had been prepared. The priority areas in the strategy informed adaptation component of the NCCP. The EPA policy advice series has also discussed the expected impacts of climate change on various sectors - disaster risk reduction, food security, coastline, education, energy, forests, health, human settlement, tourism, transport, water resources, technology, agriculture, public finance, private financial sector, indigenous knowledge, among others. The work by Twerefou et. al (2015a) suggested that the impact of climate change on road infrastructure in Ghana is very high.

The national climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment predicts possible impact on human health, food security and cash crop production such as cocoa. Current trends in major river basins in the country indicate a decrease in runoff of about 30 percent over the past three decades. Reservoir storage shows marked sensitivity to variations in runoff and periods of drought. The Akosombo dam, an electricity generation plant, has reached unprecedented low level in recent times that threatens hydropower generation and industrial activity. In a gist, climate change poses a serious challenge to the country’s effort in ensuring sustainable development. Climatologists predict that to reduce the impact of climate change, global GHG emissions in 2050 should be reduced by at least 50 percent from 1990 levels (IPCC, 2007). Stern (2006) reports on the economics of climate change shows that climate change will undermine the conditions necessary for economic growth in both developed and developing countries. In order to address the challenge posed by climate change, an approach integrating economic development and climate change strategies under the name LCDS was proposed for discussion at the UNFCCC Conference Of Parties (COP) 15 in December 2009 and was included as a component22 of the Copenhagen Accord. There is a general understanding that in order to achieve effective mitigation of the impacts of climate change, it should be mainstreamed into development policies and coordinated across different sectors. Subsequently, several countries have sought to integrate climate change strategies into economic development strategies. The GSGDA II (2014-2017) is the current medium development framework for the country. Like its successor, the document had climate change mainstreamed into all its thematic areas. The framework was formulated to ensure continued pursuit of macroeconomic stability and the sustainable exploitation of Ghana’s natural resource endowments that will propel the country into a full middle income status by 2020 with a per capita income of US$ 3,000. These objectives are to be achieved through sustained macroeconomic stability; enhanced competitiveness in Ghana’s private sector; accelerated agricultural transformation and sustainable natural resource management; Oil and Gas development; infrastructure and human

LCDS

settlements development; human development, productivity and employment; transparent and accountable governance.

The document has also admitted that climate change is a major challenge that has got the ability not only to erode the little development gains made over the past two decades but hinder further growth and sustainable development. In addition to mainstreaming climate change into all activities, key strategies identified in the GSGDA II that have bearing on climate change mitigation include the promotion of energy efficiency in all aspects of life; improvement of transport services and facilities; promotion of sustainable forest management and implementation of forest governance initiatives; education and efficient management practices; improvement of waste management mechanisms and the development of a long-term national Low Carbon Growth (LCG) approach towards sustainable development. Following the development of the GSGDA II, the NCCP was developed and approved by cabinet. The vision of the policy is to “Ensure a climate-resilient and climate-compatible economy while achieving sustainable development through equitable low-carbon economic growth for Ghana”, The policy has prioritized five main areas - Agriculture and Food Security, Disaster Preparedness and Response, Natural Resource Management, Equitable Social Development, Energy, Industrial and Infrastructural Development, which has been subdivided into ten program areas presented as Box 3. With the development of the NCCP, Ghana resolved to develop a LCDS to operationalize the mitigation component of the NCCP. The document identifies the low carbon development opportunities in the NCCP to reduce emissions that support sustainable development without compromising the core development objectives set out in the GSGDA II. In a gist, the document takes its strength from the NCCP and is in line with and supports all the national development objectives of the GSGDA II.

2.1.4 Rationale for the preparation of the LCDS Ghana’s development agenda recognizes that ensuring pro-poor growth, economic efficiency, sound environmental management, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are compatible goals if sustainable development is to be achieved. These are goals that can be achieved with a well-developed LCDS. Specifically, there are many economic and environmental instruments that can be used to facilitate the implementation of LCDS in many sectors especially in the energy, waste and forestry sectors.

At the international level there is unanimity on the need for countries to prepare LCDS to guide the long-term plan to sustain growth and emission reduction at the same time. The Bali Action Plan provides vivid guidelines for upscaling climate change mitigation and adaptation. The recent Paris

Agreement provides political leverage and global consensus on LCDS. The global process highlights the need for countries to adopt holistic solutions in the pursuit sustainable development through LCDS. In preparing LCDS countries must as much as possible recognize the conceptual and operational linkages that exist among mitigation mechanisms such as CDM, CDM-POA, REDD+ NAMAs, LCDS and INDCs.

Another important guidance that had emerged from the experience of LCDS is that for any LCDS to be successful it must be built on the foundation and experience previous mitigation mechanism particularly the technical and financial linkages. In recent times many NAMA developers have adopted existing CDM approved methodologies in the design of NAMAs documents. With regards to the financial linkages funding for mitigation mechanisms largely remain unchanged. Funding continue to be sourced from fund-based and market mechanisms except that carbon market has stumbled in the recent past.

Nonetheless there are a number of climate funds that continue to support the implementation of low carbon interventions. Many of these funds that have special focus on climate mitigation include Clean Energy for Development Investment Framework (CEIF), Clean Technology Fund, Climate Investment Funds, Strategic Climate Fund. The World Bank has developed the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility and Carbon Fund to support REDD+ readiness and the purchase of emission reductions for scaled up programs for forestry sector.

The development of this LCDS will position Ghana strategically with prioritized strategies to access finance. Such funds will provide enormous opportunities to develop renewable energy potentials in mini hydro, solar energy, wind energy, etc.; address distortion in energy policy and pricing that affect energy consumption and investments; enhance end-use energy efficiency in various sectors, shift to a more sustainable transport system, and consequently, enable the country to address a major global and national concerns on climate change without compromising growth and development as well as facilitating the transfer of technology.

Even though government subsidy removal policy is still implemented, it has not taken off fully due to a number of socio-political considerations. Although policy of rolling back subsidies on utilities and petroleum products is seen as a positive step, the inability to let take full effect could still be a drain on national resources that can be used on other more competing developmental issues – education, health and overall poverty reduction. The present state of the subsidies could also drive inefficiency in energy use by consumers, in public spending, in the utility providers and have made it difficult to invest in modernizing energy infrastructure, a situation that has led to inefficient provision of energy services and could be addressed with the LCDS.

In addition, the LCDS could enable the country to provide many rural poor people with renewable energy such as solar and help to reduce health impacts of the use of fuel wood for cooking by women

and children through a shift to the use of LPG for cooking and the use of kerosene lamps for lighting. Box 4 summarizes the health risk of the use of inefficient energy technologies and fuels.

The forest sector is one of the areas that has contributed significantly to poverty reduction, economic and social development and environmental sustainability in the past, especially for the rural folks. In recent years its contribution has been reducing. Key challenges such as weak governance, inefficient use and over-exploitation of the resource in the sector has contributed to forest degradation. Unfortunately, these are the key resources on which many of the poor people who live mostly in the rural areas depend. Lack of markets and undervaluation of forest resources has led to a decrease in both the direct and indirect benefits forest provide and has not allowed the positive externalities of forest development to be expanded.

Even if climate change is not a major issue, it makes economic sense to strive towards a more diversified, efficient, competitive and sustainable forest resource use and development that focuses on plantation and woodlot development and higher value addition, in that many rural communities depend on forests for their livelihoods. Furthermore, the implementation of the LCDS will enhance food security since policies on sustainable land management from such strategies will lead to the enrichment of soils and reforestation of degraded lands which has substantial sustainable development benefits for the rural poor. The LCDS will also enable the country to capture new economic opportunities from the introduction of new fuels such as biofuels, as well as the introduction of new technologies such as production of efficient energy technologies in lighting, cooking, etc.

The LCDS could generate many co-benefits that will improve quality of life, such as, cleaner air in cities and homes, reduced congestion, better waste management and greater efficiency in energy consumption which has positive impact on incomes. Also, the diversification of energy sources through renewable energy and energy efficiency coupled with policies on zero gas flaring would help to meet the growing energy demand and reduce dependence on expensive imported fuels. Overall the development of LCDS will enable the country to further enhance ongoing national efforts to integrate sustainable development and environmental issues in national policies, programs and long term development goals. The key challenges facing various MDAs that necessitate the development and implementation of LCDS is presented as table 6.

TABLE 6: KEY CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES IN DIFFERENT SECTORS

Ministry Challenge NDPC Ensure integration of climate change issues into national planning and budgeting processes.

MESTI Integrate broader climate related environmental issues

Evaluate and promote relevant climate related technologies.

National and international climate reporting

MoF Assess implications of climate on economy, growth and budgets.

Track and capture additional financing from climate funds.

Food & Agriculture

Achieve a “climate-proof” green revolution. (Climate Smart Agriculture).

Create and promote sustainable low-carbon land use

Lands and Natural Resources

Stop deforestation and boost reforestation and afforestation.

Secure financial opportunities by REDD+ and Forest Investment Programs.

Energy Promote increased energy efficiency.

Achieve energy security including doubling renewables on the public grid.

Transport Introduce fuel-efficiency and biofuel requirements

Reduce city traffic by promoting public transport

Others Build awareness and work to inform public on climate issues. Promote disaster risk reduction through early warning systems

Support climate initiatives within ministries

Effective spatial planning to support climate resilience.

2.1.5 Assessment of Current Situation

2.1.5.1 Sustainable development goals at national and sectoral levels

Ghana has a good history of national development planning. The longest series of medium term stabilization programs began in 1983 with the Economic Recovery Program (ERP) and Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP) (1983-1999). The First Medium Term Development Plan (MTDP) carved out of Vision 2020 was implemented from 1996 to 2000. Vision 2020 was discontinued in 2000 due to macroeconomic imbalances. Since 2000, the country has fully implemented three development strategies - Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy I (GPRS I) (2003-2005), Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (GPRS II) (2006-2009), the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda I (GSGDA I) 2010-2013 and currently implementing the GSGDA II from 2014 to 2017.

The core themes of development plans in Ghana suggest that the various poverty reduction strategies enhanced the three pillars of sustainable development. Integration of the three pillars of sustainable development started with the development and implementation of GPRS I. Whereas the document was directed primarily at attaining anti-poverty objectives of the United Nation’s MDGs, GPRS II introduced a shift of strategic focus, towards accelerating the growth of the economy so that Ghana could achieve middle-income status within a measurable planning period. The GSGDA continued to expand integration of the three pillars of sustainable development and focused on achieving the intra-generational equity component of sustainable development through the shared growth objective. It also mainstreamed climate change into all activities. The GSGDA II building on its predecessor has expanded climate change issues and emphasizes on the development of measures to practically mainstream climate change into all programs and projects.

Progress made in implementation of sustainable development agenda Ghana’s economy has picked up since the later part of the 1980s as a result of the implementation of the Economic Recovery Program (ERP) and the other development frameworks. However, the gains made are quite fragile due to weak domestic value addition, poor savings and the vulnerability of the country to external shocks. In the next sections we elaborate on the progress made in the implementation of the sustainable development agenda using data from the world development indicators of the World Bank. Average annual GDP growth rate has improved from about 4.3 between 1990 and 1999 to about 7.2 percent between 2001-2013, reaching an all–time high of 14.4 percent in 2011, largely attributed to the oil discovery in 2007, with production starting in late 2010. In November 2010, Ghana’s GDP was rebased from 1993 to 2006 to reflect current economic realities since the previous base was perceived to have underestimated GDP. This enabled per capita GDP to increase from US$ 1, 067 in 2000 to US$ 1,652 in 2011 putting the country in the lower middle income category. Rebasing has also led to a change in the structure of the economy. Without rebasing, the services sector would have overtaken the agricultural sector in 2010 as the largest contributor to GDP but with rebasing, it happened in 2006. With the production of oil in 2011, the industrial sector also overtook agriculture as the second largest contributor to GDP and thus, agriculture is currently the third largest sector of the economy, down from its first position in 2006 (old base year). In the midst of all these successes, the challenge of raising the rate of economic growth and sustaining it over extended period still persist. In general, growth in Ghana over the past two decades can be attributed to political stability, strong global demand for key export commodities like minerals and cash crops such as cocoa and good governance.

Figure 5: Distribution of Sectoral Contribution to GDP: 2006-2013 (Left – Previous economic structure, RIGHT – CURRENT ECONOMIC STRUCUTURE)

Ghana still experiences low levels of investment since Foreign Direct Investment and Overseas Development Assistance as a ratio of GDP has not been stable while the level of domestic investment is low largely as a result of low domestic savings. With low domestic savings, most of the investments must come from external sources which deepens dependency on external aid and renders the country vulnerable. Overall, external debt as a ratio of GNI has averaged about 56.6 percent for the period 1981 -1990, worsened to about 86 percent in the following decade (1991-2000) but improved to about 67.2 in the decade 2001-2010, largely as a result of the debt relief from the HIPC initiative, a situation that is not favorable for sustainable development. Sustainable development goals in this direction should focus on ensuring macroeconomic stability through reduction of budget overrun and an increase in production through industrialization and value addition; transformation of the informal sector, promotion of local content policies, reinvestment of wealth from extractive industries into other activities as well as the development of value chains across all sectors.

In the social dimension of sustainable development, the country has made efforts aimed at improving many of the social indicators. Fertility rate has decreased from about 4.7 births per woman in 2000 to about 3.9 in 2012 while life expectancy has increased from about 57 years in 2000 to 61 years in 2012 largely as a result of improvement in the quality of life and health of the populace. While IMR declined by about a third from 66.4 in 2000 to 48.6 per 1000 live births in 2012, Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) also declined approximately by a third from 103.4 to 72 per 1000 live births over the same period. Modelled estimates of MMR by the Maternal Mortality Estimation Interagency Group indicate that there has been a decrease from about 570 per 100,000 live births in 2000 to about 380 in 2013. Interventions in the health sector such as the National Health Insurance Scheme, the free maternal health care, exclusive breast feeding campaign, inter alia, as well as the general improvement in socio-economic conditions may have contributed to improvement in mortality rates. With regards to education, literacy rates among adults aged 15 and above in Ghana has increased from about 57.9 percent in 2000 to 71.5 percent in 2010. Overall, Total Primary Gross Enrolment Ratio (PGER) increased from about 86.0 percent in 2000 to about 108.8 percent in 2013 while the Total Primary Net Enrolment Ratio PNER also improved from about 64.9 percent in 2000 to about 87.1 percent in 2013.

30 29 31 32 3025 23 2121 21 20 19 19

26 27 28

49 50 49 49 51 49 50 51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Agriculture Industry Services

Figure 6: Secondary and primary enrolment

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank

Secondary Enrolment Ratios, have increased over the years but the gender gap in favor of males has seen marginal improvement compared to primary enrolment. As indicated in figure 6. Total Secondary Gross Enrolment Ratio (SGER) was about 41percent, in 2000 but increased to about 61.1 percent in 2013 while total Secondary Net Enrolment Ratio (SNER) increased from about 34.7 percent in 2000 to about 51.5 percent, over the same period. Tertiary Gross Enrolment Ratio (TGER) has also increased from about 1.3 percent in 1994 to about 12.2 percent in 2012 with that for males being always higher than that for females. Data on poverty suggests that over the past two decades Ghana has made significant impact in reducing poverty nearly by half as the percentage of the population living below the national poverty line declined from 51.7 percent in 1992 to about 28.5 percent in 2006. Despite the fall in the poverty headcount, there are both growing income and non-income inequalities especially between the three Northern Regions and the rest of the country. As indicated in table 7, the Gini coefficient increased from 35.3 percent in 19/9192 to 37.8 percent in 1998/99 and further to 39.4 percent in 2005/06. Unemployment remains a major socio-economic problem in Ghana with total unemployment increasing from about 4.7 percent in 1992 to 10.1 percent in 1999 and further to 10.4 percent in 2006. A more worrying aspect is the spiraling of graduate unemployment in the country which has serious implications on sustainable development. Table 7: Trends of GINI index 1991/92-2005/6

Inequality National Urban Rural

1991/92 35.3 32.1 32.9

1998/99 37.8 34.0 35.8

2005/6 39.4 35.8 36.1

Source: Ghana Statistical Services Sustainable development goals in the social sector should therefore aim at improving the quantity and quality of education that will lead to a balance in demand and supply of labour and create decent jobs for the citizens especially the youth, improving mortality rates; having access to sexual and reproductive health and rights; prioritizing health care for adolescents; the elderly and the disabled and handicapped; focusing on non-communicable diseases such as malaria and communicable diseases such as tuberculosis; providing fiscally sustainable social protection, promoting decent employment, particularly for young people, women and specific vulnerable groups. With regards to the environmental dimension of sustainable development, the picture is not very encouraging since many of the environmental indicators are deteriorating due largely to the inadequate focus on the environmental dimension of SD. Climatic variability and change is being observed in Ghana and has got a net adverse impact on the economy. Natural resource depletion (sum

86.0

64.9

108.8

87.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

PGER PNER

2000 2013

41.034.7

61.151.5

0

20

40

60

80

SGER SNER

2000 2013

of forest, energy and mineral depletion) as a percentage of GNI has increased from about 8.0 percent in 2000 to about 15.0 percent in 2012 in line with fossil fuel energy consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption that increased from 23.4 percent in 2000 to about 37.4 percent in 2011. Deforestation is a major problem in the country. It is estimated that an average of 125,400 ha or 1.68 percent of forest cover in Ghana was lost per year between the period 1990 and 2010. Overall the country has not done very well in terms of environmental sustainability. This is confirmed by the 2012 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) of Yale University that ranks 132 countries on 25 performance indicators tracked across ten policy categories covering both environmental public health and ecosystem vitality. Ghana obtained a score of 47.5 out of 100 and was ranked 91 in 2012. In 2014 the country’s ranking worsened somehow to 151 out of 178 countries together with its score to 32 out of 100. Priority sustainable development goals for the country should therefore revolve around developing instruments for efficient energy, forest and water resource use and management that focuses on removing harmful subsidies; ensuring economic pricing; promoting re-use, recycle and recovery and technology transfer. These, among others, are the more reasons why the development

and implementation of the LCDS becomes imperative.

2.2 Climate change related policies and strategies Ghana has ratified the three Rio Conventions: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (UNCBD) and United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and has taken steps to meet its obligations under these conventions particularly under UNFCCC. This is based on the conviction that if concerted actions are not taken the impacts of climate change can have far reaching consequences on the economy even though its contribution to the global GHG emissions is still low. Additionally, there exist technologies that can help the country to develop along low carbon growth pathway and avoid the situation in the developed world where growth has been accompanied by significant increase in GHG emissions, with global negative impacts.

As a party to the Kyoto protocol, Ghana has put in place a number of structures to support its implementation at the national level. These are: CDM Designated National Authority, National Carbon Trading Committee and the Technical Committee to screen CDM projects. In addition, the country developed a Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment in 2003, the Ghana Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments in 2008, submitted the First, Second and Third National Communications to the UNFCCC in 2002, 2006 and 2015 respectively. A National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) hosted by MESTI has also been established, made up of representatives from MDAs, universities, research institutions, the private sector and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs).

The core mandate of the Committee is to review policies and programs on climate change adaptation and mitigation. The EPA is the institution that leads and coordinates all UNFCCC activities and a national climate change focal point has been established under the Conventions together with a Projects Implementation Department that coordinates the activities of working groups and climate change study teams to support the implementation of Climate Change activities. As a party to the Convention, the country has participated in all activities related to the implementation of the framework. In line with the objective of the Government of Ghana to pursue a low carbon growth path, several MDAs are re-orienting their policies and strategies towards green goals. Key sectors that are of interest with regards to the transition to low carbon growth path are the energy, land use (agriculture and forestry) and waste. In the next sections we elaborate on these policies, legislations and measures under the various MDAs.

In order to facilitate the implementation of the Rio conventions in Ghana, the following national documents have been prepared: National Environmental Policy, National Climate Change Policy, National Action Plan to Combat Desertification and National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan.

2.2.1 Finance and Economic Planning The GSGDA II (2014-2019) is the country’s current National Policy Framework and has climate change mainstreamed into all its thematic areas. Although including climate change issues into national development and sector policies and plans is a significantly important step, it is yet to comprehensively reflect in budget formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. In line with ensuring that the medium term climate change objectives are reflected in the short term plan –budget of the country, various measures have been undertaken by the MoF, NDPC and EPA. Specifically, measures taken by these institutions to mainstream climate change into the budget include:

Ensuring that the 2011-2012 National Planning and Budgeting Guidelines take into consideration climate change - NDPC and MoF included climate change in the national planning and budgeting guidelines for 2011-2012 respectively and MMDAs and MDAs were required to be guided by these two guidelines in the preparation of their annual sector plans.

Developing indicators including indicators on climate change for the District FOAT - NDPC and MoF with the support of EPA has developed an assessment tool - FOAT that uses indicators, including indicators on climate change mitigation and adaptation to determine the quantum of funds released to the districts. This has been mainstreamed into the national monitoring and evaluation plan to guide the implementation of the sector and district plans.

Development of Guidebook for Mainstreaming Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction for MMDAs – The NDPC and EPA has developed a guidebook for mainstreaming climate change and disaster risk reduction into District Medium Term Development Plans.

Training on the use of the Guidebook for mainstreaming - 170 MMDAs have been trained on the use of the Guidebook for mainstreaming climate change into planning and budgeting.

Creation of High level awareness - High level awareness creation programs for Members of Parliament, Council of State, Economic Management Team, Chief Directors of key Ministries, District Chief Executives and Regional Co-ordinating Directors on mainstreaming climate change and disaster risks management into planning and budgeting at the sector and district levels.

Development of Policy briefs on climate change – 17 policy briefs have been developed on various themes on climate change - development planning, agriculture, education, forestry, health, tourism, transport, human settlement disaster risk management, coastal zone and resources, water resources, energy, private sector finance, public finance, opportunities, gender, indigenous knowledge, capacity and technology.

Undertaking a study on climate public expenditure and institutional review - The MoF is planning to undertake climate public expenditure and institutional review.

The MoF is currently coordinating an Inter-Ministerial Working Group on EFR that seeks to modify taxes and public expenditure such that sustainable development, environmental protection, climate change and green economy principles are appropriately considered. Specifically, the reforms will lead to a shift in the tax base and burden away from conventional taxes, such as taxes on economic goods-labour, investment and consumption to environmentally damaging activities, such as use of natural resource or pollution. In addition, the MoF has been appointed as the National Designated Authority (NDA) of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Within MoF, the Real Sector Division is responsible for GCF matters. Currently the NDA is the process of selecting a national implementing entity (NIE) which will serve as the direct fund access managers in Ghana.

2.2.2 Forestry and Agriculture Sectors

Activities in relation to land use include mainly forestry and agriculture. In the area of forestry, the –Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources (MLNR) is responsible for the management of the country's land, forest, wildlife and mineral resources. Various Departments and Agencies come directly under the Ministry to assist it to undertake its activities. These include lands sector institutions - Lands Commission, Survey Department, Office of The Administrator of Stool Lands, Land Valuation Board, Land Title Registry; forest sector institutions - FC which has three Divisions - Forest Services Division, The Wildlife Division, Timber Industry Development Division, Wood Industries Training Centre, Resource Management Support Centre and Mining Sector Institutions - Minerals Commission, Department of Mines and Geological Survey Department.

In the area of climate change mitigation one Agency that plays a critical role is the FC. This is due to the fact that about 40 percent of all GHG emissions come from deforestation and forest degradation. The FC of Ghana is responsible for the regulation of utilization of forest and wildlife resources, the conservation and management of those resources and the coordination of policies related to them. In addition to providing a range of technical services, the Commission also provides market intelligence to inform both Government and industry on pricing, trade and product trends. The National Forest and Wildlife Policy (2012) is the main policy that guides the exploitation of forest and wildlife resources while the Agroforestry Policy (1986) drives agroforestry actions in Ghana. The National Plantation Program which has been implemented by successive Governments almost always takes the form of applying the modified taungya system as a means of ensuring food security while replanting lost forests. The Government of Ghana is actively participating in the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) to support conservation, sustainable forest management and the enhancement of forest carbon stocks (these three being the + in REDD+). The mechanism is an international climate agreement that complements the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The object is for the international community to develop mechanisms for providing positive incentives (mainly in the form of finance) to help developing countries to reduce deforestation and forest degradation. The finance is performance based in that, funds are received once performance in the form of environmental service provision – carbon absorption and storage has been recorded.

With financial support from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) the Government of Ghana has developed a Readiness Preparation Proposal which indicates which activities could be undertaken for REDD+, provided a guide to what needs to be done to assess these activities and identify a coherent national strategy for REDD+. So far, the implementation of REDD+ has reached an advanced stage following its official launching. Currently, seven pilot projects are underway to test and collate practical lessons from the ground in order to shape the design. Furthermore, Forestry Commission had led the preparation and launching of the national REDD+ strategy which is expected to guide the implementation of result-based REDD+ in Ghana. The Forest Investment Program (FIP) is a World Bank funded REDD+ implementation program which is seeking to pilot some of the REDD+ strategy interventions in the high forest zones. The FIP is being managed by the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources. In addition to the FIP, the Forestry Commission together with the World Bank has been designing the first generation REDD+ result-based payment project in the cocoa landscape dubbed “Emission Reduction Program in the Cocoa Landscape”.

The Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) is the lead agency, responsible for developing and executing policies and strategies for the agricultural sector within the context of a coordinated national socio-economic growth and development agenda. MoFA has facilitated the preparation of the Food and Agriculture Sector Development Policy (FASDEP II) with one of its main objectives of ensuring environmental sustainability and the Medium Term Agriculture Sector Investment Plan (METASIP 2010-15), the investment plan to implement the policy conforms to this objective. Programs outlined under METASIP are: Food security and emergency preparedness; increased growth in incomes; increased competitiveness and enhanced integration into domestic and international markets;

sustainable management of land and environment; science and technology applied in food and agriculture development and improved institutional co-ordination. MoFA has been deeply involved in climate change activities in Ghana and implementing a number of initiatives that are climate relevant including the program for the promotion of perennial crops and Sustainable Land and Water Management program.

2.2.3 Energy Sector (Petroleum and Power) The Ministry of Power and the Ministry of Petroleum are in charge of formulating, implementing, monitoring and evaluating energy sector policies. There are about 15 institution in the Sector including National Petroleum Authority, Bulk Oil Storage and Transport, Tema Oil Refinery, Ghana National Petroleum Corporation, Ghana Oil Company, Ghana Cylinder Manufacturing Company, Ghana Natural Gas Company, National Petroleum Commission, Electricity Company of Ghana, Volta River Authority, Bui Power, Ghana GRID Company, Public Utility Regulation Commission, Energy Commission, Energy Foundation

In the area of climate change mitigation, the renewable energy sector plays a very important role. The aim of the sector is to develop and promote renewable energy for increasing access to sustainable energy services. Several policies and strategies have been put in place to ensure the efficient production and distribution of all energy sources. The Energy Sector Strategy and Development Plan (2010) which is the main document driving energy development promotes the establishment of dedicated woodlots for woodfuel production and the use of improved and more efficient woodfuel utilization technologies. In line with these objectives, the draft Bioenergy Policy has measures to ensure sustainable supply of woodfuel without causing harm to forests. The country is currently developing a National Woodfuel Conservation Policy which will directly provide the guidelines and strategies for sustainable woodfuel development and use.

In 2011, the Renewable Energy Act 832 was passed to facilitate government’s vision of achieving 10 percent renewable energy on the national electricity grid by 2020. Subsequently a number of measures such as (a) Feed-In-Tariff rate, (b) Renewable Energy Purchase Obligation, (c) connection to distribution and transmission system and (d) establishment of Renewable Energy Fund have been put in place to support private sector participation in sustainable electricity generation. In line with ensuring energy efficiency, five legislations - the Household Refrigerating Appliances Regulation, LI 1958 (2009) enforces minimum energy efficiency for household refrigerating appliances and labelling of household refrigerating appliances; LI 1932 bans the sale and use of used refrigerators; LI 1932 (2008) prohibits the manufacture/sale of incandescent filament/lamps and the importation, distribution and sale of used air-conditioners and LI 1815 ensures the labelling of the efficiency level of air conditioners, Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs) and refrigerators on sale on the market, among others.

As part of government program to increase renewable energy in the energy mix from less than 1.5 percent to 10 percent by 2020, installation work for 752 off-grid solar systems for remote public institutions has been initiated. In addition, 255 off- grid solar PV systems have been installed for remote public institutions on lakeside and inland communities. In 2013, Government announced the Solar Lantern Replacement Program which is aimed at distributing about 200,000 solar lamps to rural communities as part of its social mitigation program following the removal of subsidies on kerosene and other petroleum products. In addition, a refrigerator rebate and turn-in scheme has been implemented since 2012 to facilitate the transformation of the refrigeration appliance market in Ghana. There has also been a tax waiver on solar energy products and the Energy Foundation and Ghana Standards Board are also developing energy efficiency labels and standards for biogas power plants.

A major challenge facing the country in the area of improvement in energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy resources is how to upscale the supply of and access to such technologies and materials; clear policies that can allow the private sector to participate in the delivery of such technologies; investment in financing schemes that will help lower the high initial fixed costs of renewable energy technologies; provision of finance and support for renewable energy service companies; development of the renewable energy markets through tax support and insurance; provision of funding for research and development of renewable energy technologies; modernization of transmission and distribution systems which are old, inefficient and often lead to substantial loss of generated energy and investment in skill and capacity development (UNECA, 2013). Other policies such as the, National Bioenergy Policy, National Waste Management Policy and Implementation Plan, National Environmental Sanitation Strategy/Policy and Action Plan, among others, also focus on the development of renewable energy.

2.2.4 Transport There are two main Ministries that deal with transport – the Ministry of Transport (MoT) and the Ministry of Roads and Highways. The MoT was established by integrating the functions of the erstwhile Ministry of Aviation, Harbor and Railways and the Road Transport Services in 2009 and responsible for both formulating policies on rail, aviation, maritime and road transport infrastructure and operation. The Ministry has four sub sectors - Civil Aviation, Road Transport, Rail and Maritime with each having its own Departments and Agencies. The Ministry of Roads and Highways is the government institution responsible for formulating policies for the road transport sector, establishing the regulatory framework for road transport operations, investments and the development of an integrated road transport system which is modally complementary.

The National Transport Policy (2008) provides the blue print for the use of aviation, maritime and inland-water transport, railways, roads, pipeline, non-motorized transport as well as inter modalism. The Policy aims at promoting fuel efficiency, conservation and pollution control measures. In line with the policy, a Sector Medium-term Development Plan (2012 – 2014) has been developed to guide implementation. The policy and plans provide vivid information on all transport modes together with implementation and costed action plans. The LI 2180 also touches on reducing emissions from road transport though it does not set standards on level of emissions. It also seeks to regulate the use of LPG and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) in cars.

The Urban Transport Policy developed out of the National Road Sector Policy is the main driver of mass transit in Ghana. One major component of the urban transport project is the Bus Rapid Transit which is a radial arterial route running from the outskirts of Accra to the central business district and expected to service over 12,000 peak hour passenger journeys per direction of travel with bus frequencies of 120 buses per hour at peak periods using new large buses. In addition to these projects, rail transport services from Tema to Accra and from Nsawam to Accra is being provided while rehabilitation work on the Kwasimintin - Takoradi line is on-going. Challenges in the sector include the huge infrastructural development required, introduction of innovative policies on differential taxation and duties on vehicle, use of efficient engine technologies and cars with smaller engine capacities; improvement in standards and regulations, driver and vehicle maintenance habits, traffic management, among others.

2.2.5 Local Government (Waste management) The Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development (MLGRD) aims at promoting the establishment and development of a vibrant and well-resourced decentralized system of local government for the people of Ghana, to ensure good governance and balanced rural based development. The National Environmental Sanitation Strategy and Action Plan, the main document

that drives waste management in Ghana points to the relevance of waste to compost technologies in Ghana as part of curbing environmental pollution and creating jobs whiles meeting Millennium Development Goal 7. A Strategic Environmental Sanitation Investment Plan is also being developed by the MLGRD to ensure sustainable finance for waste management. Priority climate change issues should focus on provision of modern sanitation facilities, designing of cities with opportunities for the provision of efficient management of urban waste, encouragement of reuse, recovery and recycling of waste (ECOWAS, 2012).

Industrial sector Several policies and strategies in the energy sector directly or indirectly support energy efficiency in building The National Energy Policy (2010), recognizes the need to improve on energy efficiency in the end-use and aims at implementing programs and projects that will help improve energy efficiency including outlining steps to achieve the goal of metering all buildings. Appendix 1 provides basic information on some climate change projects that have been or are being implemented in various sectors.

2.3 Process and institutions for formulating the LCDS

2.3.1 Institutional arrangements The broad impact of climate change and the associated mitigation and adaptation issues suggest that any institution in Ghana is part of the institutional framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The 1992 Constitution of Ghana (the Directive Principles of State Policy) indirectly covers issues pertaining to the economic, social, environmental and institutional development. Specific articles that indirectly touch on sustainable development include articles 36 (1) and 36 (9)23 . The National Planning Laws also have some bearing on sustainable development and consequently on climate change. Thus, to some extent, the current drive towards LCDS takes its momentum from the national constitution. Figure 7 shows the institutional framework that has been agreed to secure the sustainability of the LCDS implementation of the LCDS. The framework also reflected the current roles various institutions will be playing in the planning and implementation of climate change mitigation actions in Ghana. The strategic level institutions are the Office of the President, Parliamentary Select Committee on the Environment and the Environment and Natural Resource Advisory Council.

At the planning, budgeting and overall coordination level, the NDPC, MESTI and MoF are the main national institutions responsible for sustainable development and consequently the implementation of the LCDS. The NDPC has oversight responsibilities for the preparation, coordination, implementation and monitoring of the medium-term plans and strategic plans prepared by the MMDAs and the MDAs and accordingly, works with them to ensure that climate change is well integrated into national development planning and budgeting processes. MESTI is responsible for policy issues and exercises supervisory authority over 6 statutory bodies charged with the responsibility for the implementation of policies in the areas of environment and science. These are EPA, Town and Country Planning Department, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Ghana Atomic Energy Commission, Rural Enterprises Project (REP) and the Environmental Resources Management Project.

2. Planning, Budgeting and Overall Coordination

Core (development authorities) - NDPC

Sector policy formulation and coordination institutions - MESTI

Core budgeting coordination institutions - MoF

Budgeting & Implementation

Coordination Institutions(NCCC)

(Re)formulation and Planning

Relevant institutions &

extensiveStakeholders consultation

Monitoring & Evaluation

Research & Knowledge Generation

GHG, Mitigation, Adaptation and Support MRV institutions

International reporting

National CommunicationsBiennial Update reports

4. Monitoring and Reporting Institutions

3. Implementation Institutions

Ministries, Department and Agencies Institutions. E.g. Energy, Transport, Waste, Environment, Housing &

Infrastructure, Forestry, Industry and Agriculture

Institutions for sectoral coordination and harmonization of climate change actions

Institutions for mobilizing investments for Climate Change

Private sector and Businesses

1. Strategic level institutions

Office of President/Cabinet Parliamentary Select Committee

Environment & Natural Resource Advisory Council (ENRAC)

Private sectorCivil Society OrganizationsDevelopment PartnersPublic InstitutionKnowledge community

Municipal, Metropolitan, District Assemblies

(Local Government Authorities)

Development M & E (NDPC)

The EPA is the main implementing agency directly responsible for dealing with matters concerning environmental management and protection. The agency is a corporate body and a legal entity, which can sue and be sued. It has legal powers to sanction institutions and individuals who violate any environmental legislation. It is responsible for initiating action on environmental legislation, and sees to the enforcement of these laws. The Agency also advises the MESTI on environmental issues. Overall, there exist formulation and planning structures, budgeting and planning structures; monitoring and evaluation structures and relevant institutions and extensive stakeholders whose actions are being coordinated by the National Climate Change Committee. This forms the main institutional structure for the implementation of the LCDS.

2.3.2 About decisions and approval process of Ghana’s LCDS

2.3.2.1 Political approval

The major policy that guides climate change activities in Ghana is the NCCP which was approved by cabinet. The document lays emphasis on low carbon economic growth path that will ensure poverty reduction for Ghanaians. The development of the LCDS emanates from the NCCP and therefore political and administrative approval should be secured from the Minister in charge of Environment, Science, Technology and Innovation on the recommendation of the National Climate Change

Committee (NCCC) which provides advice on climate change issues to the Minister and coordinates all climate change actions in the country. Members of the NCCC collectively and individually took part in the development of the strategy. Many of them participated in discussions and validation of various parts of the document as well as the overall review.

The draft strategy was sent to all the stakeholders identified in the institutional framework including the NCCC. The stakeholders discussed and reviewed the information sources, underlying assumptions and selection of low-carbon scenarios. Specific experts and advisors from government, CSOs, private sector and academia, development partners, etc, were also invited to review the document. An external independent reviewer was also asked to review the document with the support of UNEP-DTU Partnership.

A key element of the LCDS development and approval process is the national validation workshop that brought together experts from both public, private and the wider CSO to ground-truth and inform the low-carbon scenario assessments organized in August, 2015. Experts approved the data used, underlying assumptions and final recommendations. The broad consultations also created further buy-in and ownership with the various MDAs, MMDAs, CSOs, academia and the private sector as well as built further awareness and understanding of the LCDS and the opportunities available in the various sectors. The workshop also consolidate all the comments made and ensured that the balanced interests of all stakeholders were taken into consideration After all these consultations, validation and ground-truthing activities, political and administrative approval was sought from the Minister in charge of Environment, Science, Technology and Innovations. The LCDS document was finally out-doored during the side event organized by Ghana at COP 21.

2.3.2.2 Stakeholder involvement and engagement

Preparation of the LCDS was quite participatory involving all stakeholders at all levels using existing climate change mitigation structures, more specifically the structure developed for the Third National Communication under the UNFCCC. This decision was taken based on several consultations held between the relevant public and private institutions with MESTI and the EPA. Technical inputs and engagement across a wide range of agencies stimulated interest in the methodology, tools and strategic directions used in the development of the LCDS.

In the early part of 2012, MESTI constituted a Group to coordinate the drafting of the LCDS. The Group held several meetings with MESTI, EPA, UNEP- DTU Partnership and other stakeholders to discuss and obtain general approval of the approach for the development of the LCDS. The meetings also reviewed progress in climate change mitigation actions being undertaken by the government. The general recommendation from those meetings was that a pre project study on implementation and institutional governance for climate change coordination should be conducted. The Scope of work of the study was as follows:

Map existing institutional structures to address climate change in Ghana, their key responsibilities and operational processes.

Map out existing and ongoing activities related to the Facilitating Implementation and Readiness for Mitigation (FIRM) activities in Ghana vis-a-vis development of LCDS, identification of priority mitigation actions and preparation of Nationally Accepted Mitigation Action (NAMAs).

Identify and assess national mitigation priorities taking into account socio-economic objectives and international technology and policy developments for Ghana.

In undertaking this study a kick-off meeting was held in early July 2012 between the Group, EPA, MESTI as well as other key stakeholders with the following objectives:

Discuss and determine the schedule for milestone meetings,

Determine the operational work plan, that is the contribution of different stakeholders to the deliverables, from inception to the first milestone meeting,

Discuss the contents of the work-packages and to ascertain the thematic relationship of the work packages to each other and to the project as a whole,

Determine the key sectors to be considered,

Finalize the methodology and approach.

In coordinating this study, the group followed all the recommendations made by the meeting. The methodology for the pre project study was divided into two phases. The first phase entailed the review of documents and literature on the institutional governance for climate change coordination and implementation in Ghana. In reviewing the literature, the Group consulted many documents - frameworks, strategies, policies and reports that have bearing on climate change impact mitigation and adaptation from MDAs such as MESTI, Minerals Commission, MLNR, MoFA, MoF, MLGRD, EPA, FC, NDPC, as well as CSOs. In order to inform stakeholders about progress and to gain their input, a meeting was organized late July, 2012 for all stakeholders. The objective of the meeting was to inform stakeholders about progress, present the methodology and the literature review and solicit further input. At the meeting a checklist for soliciting information on climate change issues from organizations was presented and all the feedback from the stakeholders’ consultation was taken into consideration in revising the study methodology and approach.

The second phase of the study involved a survey on climate change policies, measures and activities, key areas of mitigation relevant for Ghana and the prioritization of mitigation actions. The survey was undertaken by sending the checklist developed to various stakeholders and booking an appointment for a face-to-face interview with the checklist as a guide. The information was later analyzed and used to produce the draft report which focused on the key sectors relevant for Ghana: Energy, AFOLU, Transport, Waste and IPPU. The draft report was circulated for stakeholder inputs and a workshop was organized to discuss the report after which it was finalized based on comments from stakeholders. Following the finalization of the pre project study on implementation and institutional governance for climate change coordination, the Group was asked to develop the LCDS and a technical team was constituted with membership from EPA, MESTI, to support the development of the LCDS. The mandate of the Group was to use the climate change structures including the existing Mitigation Working Group as well and make broad consultation with all stakeholders in the preparation of the LCDS. The reason for using the working group is to make the LCDS formulation more participatory, transparent, stimulate interest in the process and also build capacity.

Early February, 2013, a meeting was held with the national GHG Mitigation Assessment Working Group to discuss the formulation of the LCDS. The Meeting agreed on the sectors relevant to Ghana and requested that sub-groups be formed on all the sectors together with a TOR to enable them undertake the mitigation assessment. The Meeting also recommended that a follow-up meeting be held back-to-back with start-up training on GHG mitigation assessment. In response to the request, a follow-up meeting and start-up training workshop on GHG mitigation was organized in early March, 2013.

The two meetings were to enable members to complete discussions on the scoping of the mitigation assessment as well as have hands-on-experience on the LEAP and other screening tools, which will be used for the mitigation assessment. Six sub-working groups were formed: Energy, Agriculture and Forestry, Waste, Industry, GHG Inventory and the National Circumstances working groups and a TOR finalized for them to undertake the mitigation assessment. Appendices 2 and 3 provide the membership of the working groups and the TOR respectively. The sub-groups had several working

sessions all aimed at undertaking their assignment and the development of mitigation scenarios. The outcome of their work formed the basis for the development of the LCDS.

The process of developing the LCDS serves as a useful mechanism for creating awareness on climate change in the different sectors as well as building capacities of national experts who are directly involved through learning by doing. Participants in the working group reviewed literature and technical reports, contributed to the discussion of key climate change issues facing Ghana and jointly developed the business as usual and mitigation scenarios for the various sectors as provided by their TOR. In addition, the process also provides good information for policy planning at the various ministries. To buy into other national processes that have significant impact on the development of the LCDS, consultation was held with the Inter-Ministerial Working Group on EFR, late June 2014 to enable the Group make inputs on environmental fiscal policy instruments that can be used to generate resources to finance climate change activities which will consequently facilitate the implementation of the LCDS. These stakeholder consultation processes seriously helped to shape the work of the Group; increased interest and capacity for conducting such analysis and also enabled all stakeholders to know and understand their roles in the implementation of the LCDS. In the area of MRV, a back-to-back workshop on sustainable GHG data management and establishment of MRV data sharing network in Ghana was held in January, 2013. The objectives of workshop were to:

Identify existing sources of data for the estimation of the national GHG estimates, Discuss the extent to which existing data needs of the GHG inventory is met and how to

improve on data access, improve accuracy, reduce data gaps, etc, Identify additional data generation and collection mechanisms that have not been tapped, Identify capacity needs for data monitoring and evaluation, Develop a robust national data collection network that will be able to generate data on regular

basis, identify roles of key institutions as well as strategies required at the institutional level in order to mainstream the data collection network,

Address data protection, confidentiality and acknowledgement issues, Harness existing legal and regulatory processes for collecting data from various sources eg.

Industry, research, academia, etc., Assess the role(s) of the Ghana Statistical Services considering - the periodicity of the surveys

they conduct, funding needs, options for collecting data for the ambitious reporting regime, Identify new data requirements under the new reporting regime and how to set up mechanism

for collecting from the relevant sectors.

The broad objectives of the workshop which was achieved provided a comprehensive framework for the monitoring and evaluation of national mitigation actions - monitoring of GHGs emissions and sustainable development benefits. In July 2014, a training workshop on MRV was organized with the objective of providing advance knowledge on theory and practice of MRV, MRVs for NAMAs as well as the road map for MRV. At this workshop consensus was reached on how to subsume the monitoring of the LCDS under the national MRV framework since an attempt to create a different framework would lead to duplication of efforts. Based on these inputs and consultations, a working draft of the LCDS was made. Early October 2014, a meeting was held with members of the working group and key experts on climate change from MESTI. The objective of the meeting was to discuss the draft report and to streamline the rough edges. Following this meeting, another meeting was organized at the end of October, 2014 with all relevant MDAs to solicit their inputs to the documents.

Table 8: List of institutional representation in the mitigation working group

Designated National GHG Mitigation Assessment Preparation Agency/Organization

Describe the arrangements or relationship between Mitigation Assessment Agency/Organization and UNFCCC Focal Point Agency

UNFCCC Focal Point and UNFCCC Focal Point Agency

Energy Commission Member of mitigation assessment working group responsible for energy categories. UNFCCC Focal Point Agency manages the entire assessment process from planning, preparation and reporting.

Mr. K. Y. Oppong Boadi, Environmental Protection Agency

Energy Centre, KNUST

Forestry Commission Member of mitigation assessment working group responsible for Forest Management. UNFCCC Focal Point Agency manages the entire assessment process from planning, preparation and reporting.

Ministry of Food & Agriculture

Economics Department, University of Ghana, Legon

Member of mitigation assessment working group responsible for financial and economic modeling.

CDM/DNA – MESTI Member of mitigation assessment working group responsible for policy and strategy alignment.

Environmental Protection Agency Built Environment Department.)

Member of mitigation assessment working group responsible for solid waste management. UNFCCC Focal Point Agency manages the entire assessment process from planning, preparation and reporting.

Environmental Protection Agency (Manufacturing Industry Department and Built Environment Dept.)

Member of mitigation assessment working group responsible for industrial processes. UNFCCC Focal Point Agency manages the entire assessment process from planning, preparation and reporting.

In addition to sending the draft report to key climate change experts for their comments, the draft report was also sent to the UNEP- DTU partnership for their inputs where a lot of technical comments were made on the modeling framework, the assumptions underlining the scenario and the implications for policy. Early May 2015, another workshop was organized for Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and the private sector to solicit their input into the documents. In tables 8 to 14, a detail information in a tabular form has been provided with specific roles and responsibilities of the members of the mitigation working group who helped to provide the analytical base of this LCDS as well as the methodologies used in the various sectors. It is the same analysis that was used to inform the development of the Ghana’s INDC especially the mitigation component. The use of largely the same team and similar methodological tools, although with a little bit of improvement in the analytical approaches, in both the preparation of the LCDS and INDC considerably, helped to ensure consistency across the two processes. The approach of using similar methodological tools, and datasets also contributed to having a robust analytical result in order to inform formulation of the strategies that underpin the LCDS and INDC.

Table 9: Description of task and responsibilities of members of mitigation working group

Role Name Organization Contact Information Comments

Mitigation Team Leader

Dr. Joseph Essandoh

Energy Commission

Email: [email protected] Tel: 020-818-7199

Daniel Benefoh of Environmental Protection Agency backstopped the team leader.

Electricity Supply Sector Lead

Mr. Mawunyo Dzobo

Energy Commission


The sector lead ensured strong linkages with the strategic national energy planning process.

Transport Sector Mr. Kennedy Amankwa

Energy Commission


Member of the National GHG inventory working group on energy.

Residential and Commercial Sector

Paula Edze Energy Commission


Coordinator, SE4ALL Secretariat

Industry Sector Edward Awafoe

The Energy Centre


Forest Management Sector Lead

Kingsley Amoako/ Robert Bamfo

Ministry of Food and Agriculture Forestry Commission

Email:[email protected] Tel: 020-741-1864 Email: [email protected] Tel: 020-823-7777

Other members of the Land sector include Mohammed Yakubu, Winston Asante, Nicholas Jingre, Kwame Agyei, Kwabena Asubonteng

Solid Waste Management Lead

Mr. William Acquah Hayfron

Environmental Protection Agency

Email:[email protected] Tel: 024-463-3684

Economic/Integrated Analysis

Dr. Daniel Twerefou,

University of Ghana Economics, Dept.

Email:[email protected] Tel: 0244-603-676

Linkages with policy and Market mechanisms

Peter Dery CDM/DNA, MESTI

Email:[email protected] Tel: 0243-646749

Archive (Data and Document)

Daniel Benefoh Tutu

Environmental Protection Agency

Email : [email protected] Tel: 0246-114-652

Member of the national GHG inventory-working group on energy.

mailto:[email protected]




Table 10: Distribution of workload of the analysis team

Analysis Task Description of Methods Who conducted analysis?

Key Contact Comments

Development of BAU Scenario

Energy and transport - Based on previous scenario without measures (WOM) constructed during the national energy planning exercise as part of the strategic national energy planning conducted last year. Developed based on the assumption that government will not adopt to any additional policy or program.

Non-energy sector – emissions baseline scenarios were developed on the basis that the prevailing base case will continue.

Mitigation assessment working group

Energy and transport team – Mr. Mawunyo Dzobo (Energy Commission)

Assumptions that informed BAU scenarios were consistent with the study that was conducted under strategic national energy planning. The WOM scenario is similar to BAU

Mitigation Option Development and Prioritization (Screening)

Used multi-criteria assessment to screen options based on significance of emission reductions, marginal cost, financial requirements, consistency with national development goals, availability of technology and capacity, and other co-benefits

Mitigation assessment -working group

Daniel Tutu Benefoh,

(Environmental Protection Agency)

Dr. Daniel K. Twerefou, (Economics Department, University of Ghana, Legon) provided technical inputs. Similar screen spreadsheet was used by the LCDS team

Macro-Economic Analysis

Not conducted due to limited availability of appropriate modeling tools and costs of analysis.

Low Carbon Development Strategy team plans to conduct Macro-economic analysis with support from UNEP DTU

Mitigation Scenario Analysis (integration)

Simulation (LEAP Model) Energy team Mr. Mawunyo Dzobo (Energy Commission)

Simulation (COMAP Model) AFOLU team Kingsley Amoako (MoFA) and Robert Bamfo (FC)

Solid waste (Solid Waste Management tool)

Waste team Joy Ankomah and Daniel Lamptey

Development of cost curves

Spreadsheet analysis (Marginal cost curve) for selected mitigation technologies

Mitigation assessment -working group.

Daniel Tutu Benefoh,

(Environmental Protection Agency

Third party review of technology and cost inputs to the marginal cost curve.

Table 11: Tools and methodologies used in the energy sector

Analysis Task(s) / Use Development of BAU and mitigation scenarios / Modeling tool for Energy sector

Sector/Scope Economy-wide (with the exception of afforestation and waste management) – scenario without measures (WOM) and scenario with measures (WM) were developed. WoM represent future scenario with freeze policy (the trend of the existing case remained unchanged in future and none of the proposed or on-going government policies and measures that have mitigation objectives are not implemented), WM represents future scenario where proposed or on-going domestic (government) policies and measures are implemented in order to attain unintended mitigation objectives although its a less ambitious and scenario with additional measures which represent mitigation scenario – where ambitious additional measures are undertaken with international support to attain greater emission reductions.

Model/Data Source/Tool LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System)

Describe Why this Resource Was Chosen

Simple, flexible modeling tool; adaptable to national circumstances

Contact Energy and transport team – Mr. Mawunyo Dzobo (Energy Commission)

Other Comments (e.g. Usefulness, Lessons, Suggestions for Future Analysis)

LEAP allowed changes in the key assumptions pertaining to the present and future economic development circumstances and policy context of major government policies and measures. It was not possible to develop WOM and WM baseline scenarios in LEAP that were not technology dependent. There is need to explore the possibility of linking LEAP to models used other sectors (afforestation and solid waste management. This linkage reduced the potential inconsistencies in the assumptions and conditions that informed the baseline. Bringing the models together also allowed for equal treatment of sectors analysis at the same scale.

Table 12: Tools and methodologies used in developing Marginal Abatement Cost

Analysis Task(s) / Use Development of Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Sector/Scope Economy-wide (except afforestation and solid waste management)

Model/Data Source/Tool Mitigation screening tool Describe Why this Resource Was Chosen

Simple, flexible modeling tool; adaptable to national circumstances

Contact Daniel Tutu Benefoh, (Environmental Protection Agency) Other Comments (e.g. Usefulness, Lessons, Suggestions for Future Analysis)

Multi-criteria analysis allowed for an objective way of prioritizing technology based mitigation options using qualitative and quantitative criterion. The screening process went through several rounds scoring and weighting from different stakeholdes during national consultation meetings. The final perfect score and weight represent average different iterations.

Table 11: Tools and methodologies used in Forest Management

Analysis Task(s) / Use Assessment of Potential Carbon Stock Enhancement Potential for Afforestation/Reforestation

Sector/Scope Sector (Forest Management) Model/Data Source/Tool COMAP (Compressive mitigation assessment process) Describe Why this Resource Was Chosen

Best available resource, which allow sector wide mitigation assessment. Less data intensive and available technical capacity to implement the model.

Contact Kingsley K. Amoako (Ministry of Food and Agriculture) and Robert Bamfo (Forestry Commission) Other Comments (e.g. Usefulness, Lessons, Suggestions for Future Analysis)

In future, it is important that the selection of parameters into COMAP model be informed by the scope of the REDD+ forest reference level be at the time this work was done, the REDD+ forest reference level has not been established.

TABLE 12: TOOLS AND METHODOLOGIES USED IN SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT

Analysis Task(s) / Use Assessment of GHG mitigation potential in the Solid Waste Sector Sector/Scope Sector-wide (Solid Waste Management)

Model/Data Source/Tool Tool for calculating GHG in solid waste management (SWM) Describe Why this Resource Was Chosen

Simple, flexible modeling tool; adaptable to national circumstances,

Contact Joy Ankomah and Daniel Lamptey, (Built Environment Environmental Protection Agency) Other Comments (e.g. Usefulness, Lessons, Suggestions for Future Analysis)

Explore opportunities to include GHG mitigation potential assessment for domestic and industrial liquid waste disposal

2.4 GHG Emission Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios

2.4.1 Historical country and sectoral GHG emission sources

2.4.1.1 Overall trends in GHG emissions and by gases

Over the past two decades, Ghana’s total GHG emissions has risen from about 14.2 million tons (Mt) CO2-equivalent (CO2e) in 1990 to about 33.7 MtCO2e in 2012 at an average annual rate of 5 percent. The rise in the emissions squarely correspond to the structural shift in the fundamentals of the Ghanaian economy. This had led to a sustained growth and expansion in the economy. The coupling relationship between growth in the economy and the rising GHG emission is illustrated in figure 8.

Figure 8: Trends of GHG emissions/capita versus GDP/capita

With a relatively better economy than before, the demand for transport services is on the rise, the share of thermal electricity in the public grid mix is on the ascendancy, city authorities are faced with the challenge of sanitation and above all the levels of reliance on natural resource commodities (cocoa, mining, crude oil and timber) to boost the export base of the economy. Twerefou et al (2015b), established that trade liberalization has led to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. These are the factors that to a large extent drive the rising GHG emissions in the country. In terms of gases, carbon dioxide is the dominant GHG contributing 44% of the total net emission. This is followed by nitrous oxide (30.8%), methane (24.8%) and perfluorocarbons (0.4%). Total carbon dioxide emissions rose from net of -0.11 Mt in 1990, to 1.1 Mt in 2000 and to 12.3 Mt in 2010 and to 14.8Mt in 2012. About 85 percent of the total carbon dioxide emissions come from the energy sector particularly, road transport and thermal electricity generation. The rest are mainly from land use change with the least coming from waste disposal. The main sources of nitrous oxide emissions are biomass burning and fertilizer application in soils under the AFOLU sector. The N2O emissions rose from 7.3 MtCO2e in 1990 to 8.4 MtCO2e in 2000 then to 10 MtCO2e in 2010 and 10.4 MtCO2e in 2012. Methane emissions are mainly derived from AFOLU and the waste sector. The following activities are principally responsible for the nearly 88% of the total methane emissions; enteric fermentation in livestock, biomass burning and wastewater treatment and discharge. The total methane emission marginally declined from 6.5 MtCO2e in 1990 to 6.4 MtCO2e in 2000 and then rose to 8.2 MtCO2e in 2010 and further to 8.4 MtCO2e. Figure 9 shows the trends in GHG emissions according to gases.

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Aluminum production was the main source of PFCs emissions in Ghana. The PFCs emission has significantly declined by 309.7% below the 2000 levels due to reduction in Aluminum production from VALCO.

Trends in GHG emissions by sectors

With a total emission of 15.2 MtCO2e, AFOLU sector constitute the largest source of GHG emissions in Ghana, accounting for 45% of the total national emissions. The 15.2 MtCO2e emissions, represented 96.5% above the share of the total emissions in 2000. Emissions from aggregated sources and non-emissions from land contributed the largest share of 67.8% and 30.6% of the total AFOLU emissions respectively. Table 13: Total emissions distribution among sectors

Sectors & Sub-sectors Emissions MtCO2e Percent Change

Share (%)

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1. All Energy (combustion & fugitive) 3.5 5.5 11.3 13.5 19.5 37.2 40.1

Stationery energy combustion 2.0 2.7 6.5 7.0 7.7

Transport 1.5 2.8 4.8 6.46 34.6

Fugitive emissions 0.0 0.003 0.001 0.002 100.0

2.Industrial Process & Product Use 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.47 135.0 0.7 1.5

3. AFOLU 8.61 7.72 14.67 15.17 3.4 48.3 45.0

Livestock 1.7 2.20 2.8 3.0 7.1

Land -3.0 -4.00 1.9 1.8 -5.3

Aggregated and non-CO2 emissions 9.9 9.52 10.0 10.3 3.0

4. Waste 1.3 2.3 4.2 4.5 7.1 13.8 13.4

Total net emissions 14.2 16.3 30.4 33.7 10.9 100 100

The energy sector is the second largest source of emissions making up 40.1% of the national total emissions. This share was 6.3% lower than that of 2000. A majority of the emissions in the sector were mainly from stationery fuel combustion (52%) and transport (48%) sources. The remaining 16.2% were from the waste (14.6%) and IPPU (1.5%) sectors (table 15).

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Over the period 1990-2012, total emissions from most of the sectors showed increasing trends except emissions from IPPU sector which showed a slight decline (figure 10). In terms of changes in trends, emissions from IPPU sector recorded the highest increase of 135% from 2010 to 2012 (see table 20). For the energy sector, similar increases were observed, but it was not as sharp as that of the IPPU sector. The emissions increased from 3.5 MtCO2e in 1990 to 13.5 MtCO2e in 2010, and further by 19.5% in 2012. Similarly, the waste sector emissions rose by 71% and 7.1% from 1990 and 2010 to 2012 respectively. The AFOLU sector also recorded a 32.7% increase in emissions between 1990 and 2012 and 5.3% from 2010 to 2012.

Figure 10: Trends of total emissions by sectors

The key drivers of the emission trends in the various sectors are as follows:

AFOLU – The increases in emissions from AFOLU since 1990 was mainly driven by the emissions from forest land converted to cropland and grassland, biomass burning through wildfires, increases in animal populations, crop production, fertilizer use, and associated emissions.

Energy Sector: The largest sectoral increase in emissions over the 1990 to 2012 period, of 52% (7 MtCO2e), was from the stationary energy sector driven partly by increasing energy demand due to rising number of electrified households, expanding commercial/industrial activities and household incomes. The main driver for the increase in transport emissions was the continued growth in the number of passenger vehicles and expanding domestic aviation industry.

IPPU: The decrease in emissions since 1990 is primarily driven by the declining operational capacity of the only Aluminum Plant in Ghana (VALCO).

Waste: The increase in the net emissions from waste are due to growing populations, changing lifestyles and operational and management challenges at most landfill sites.

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2.4.2 Projected GHG emissions in business-as-usual (BAU) and mitigation scenarios

2.4.2.1 Mapping inventory categories to mitigation sectors The development of the BAU and mitigation scenarios for the LCDS involved mapping of emissions inventory estimates to key sectors in the mitigation analysis. The mapping helped to create a link between the historical GHG estimates and the projected emissions in the BAU and mitigation scenarios. The first important step is mapping emissions from traditional categories used in GHG inventories (e.g., energy, industrial process, agriculture and forestry) into sectors and categories more commonly used in mitigation analyses (i.e., energy supply, residential and commercial, transportation), both for historical and future years. This process provided insight in prioritizing mitigation analysis in the sectors with the highest current emissions, as well as greatest emissions growth. Table 16 presents the key emission sources in Ghana for the most recent base year. In order to better facilitate assessment of mitigation options, this table also provides highlights of the mapping of inventory categories to sectors suitable for mitigation analysis. For example, the inventory category of energy CO2 emissions have been broken down into electricity generation (power supply), transportation, residential/commercial, and industrial sectors, based on where fossil fuels are combusted.

Due to lack of technical/economic data and non-availability of appropriate mitigation assessment tool, the BAU and mitigation analysis has been limited to the following categories: (a) energy sector - (which included electricity supply and demand side management covering transportation, residential and commercial, industry categories) and (b) non-energy sectors (forest management and solid waste management). This means that the analysis of the projected emission will cover 64 percent of the historical emissions stock at the economy-wide scale. The year 2010 was selected as the base year for the analysis of 2030 projected emissions in the BAU and mitigation scenarios. Emissions in BAU scenario (also referred to as scenario without measures – WoM) depicts future projections of the current economic development circumstances in the event that the status quo continues. This implies future projections where GHG emission trends in the baseline remain unchanged and none of government’s policy or objectives are fully achieved. In the mitigation scenario, future emission projections take into account emission reduction impacts of relevant mitigation policies. Under mitigation scenario two, options have been developed namely; (i) unconditional mitigation scenario (also referred to scenario with measures – WM) and (ii) conditional mitigation scenario (also referred to as scenario with additional measures – WAM).

Table 14. Mapping of key mitigation sectors based on contributions to total national emissions in 2000 and 2010

Inventory Categories

IPCC Code Mitigation Sectors Historical Emissions (MtCO2e)

Contribution to National Emissions (%) in 2010 2000 2010

Energy 1.A1 Electricity supply 0.48 3.08 10.1%

Oil Refinery* 0.07 0.15 0.5%

1.A3 Transportation 2.8 4.80 15.7%

1.A4 Residential and Commercial

1.48 2.17 7.1%

1.A2 Industry 0.71 1.11 3.6

Industrial Processes

2 0.77 0.24 0.8

AFOLU (Agriculture)

3A Agriculture 2.19 2.82 9.2%

AFOLU (Land) 3B Forest Management -4.0 1.85 6.1%

AFOLU (Aggregated sources and Non-CO2 emissions)

3C Other sources 9.52 9.99 32.8%

Waste 4A, 4B 4C and 4D

Waste Management 2.29 4.24 13.9%

Total 16.31 30.49 100% *Energy supply activities other than electricity generation (power supply) are often reported and analyzed in the sector activities such as oil refining under Energy Industries. The rest of the activities under energy industry are not applicable in Ghana.

2.4.2.2 National emissions reduction goal The comparison of the projected emissions in the BAU and mitigation scenario depict an overall emission reduction goal the selected mitigation actions will lead to when implemented. The mitigation analysis suggests that the implementation of 19 mitigation actions will lead to an overall cumulative GHG impacts of 45% deviation relative to the projected BAU emission of 73.9 MtCO2e in 2030. Out of the 19 mitigation actions, 2 of them in thermal electricity generation and forest plantation are expected to result in 15% emissions reduction of the projected BAU emissions of 73.9MtCO2e in 2030 in the unconditional mitigation scenario. Under the conditional mitigation scenario, the rest of the 17 mitigation actions are expected to be implemented with the availability of international support. This will lead to an additional 30% emission reduction (figure 11).

Under BAU, emissions24 are expected to rise from 19.5 MtCO2e in 2010 to 37.8 MtCO2e in 2020, to 53.5 MtCO2e in 2025 and 73.9MtCO2e in 2030. The projected emission trajectory excludes the impact from any future developments in the extractive industry. The BAU scenario to the extent practicable, incorporated Ghana’s intentions to explore opportunities using clean coal technology in public electricity generation mix to meet its energy security objectives.

Figure 11: Description of emission trajectory

2.4.3 Energy sector mitigation scenarios

2.4.3.1 Prioritization of technology-based mitigation actions in the energy sector The prioritization of mitigation technologies was done through a consultative selection and screening process. The prioritization was done using an excel-based screening tool developed by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). The screening tool uses qualitative and quantitative multi-criteria approaches for selecting from menu mitigation of technologies. The software prioritizes the technologies using two broad criteria-cost effectiveness of the technologies and national development aspirations which further depends on several nationally acceptable criteria. Before the prioritization started, the potential list technologies were first identified using the following criteria:

There is evidence that government is committed (policy and financial wise) to get mitigation action implemented and is aligned with government priorities.

Enough baseline data exist with clear set targets that can be used for the GHG emissions modeling and assessment of co-benefits.

It is possible to estimate investment requirements (estimate pragmatic and reasonable budget) with clear sources of funding.

It is possible to estimate sustainable development benefits of the technology.

Know-how of the technology are available to be deployed in the Ghanaian market.

Mitigation technology are already part of the list of 55 NAMAs submitted to the UNFCCC in 2010 and

There are existing analytical tools that can be adapted to suit Ghana’s unique national circumstance.

The initial identification of the mitigation technologies produced the following list:

Solar PVs (SPV)

Solar Lanterns (SLN)

Wind Power (WP)

Efficient cookstoves (ECS)

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Capacitor Banks (CBS)

Fuel Switch in electricity generation (FST)

The initial list of mitigation technologies was subjected to the prioritization process using the screening tool. The tool has two parts. The first part uses cost-effectiveness of carbon savings to assess the various mitigation technologies using Marginal Abatement Curves (MAC). Together with the results from the MAC and criteria on development indicators, the list of mitigation technologies is prioritized using multi-criteria analysis.

2.4.3.2 Marginal abatement curves (Quantitative criteria)

The assumptions used in the development of the marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for the baseline and mitigation scenario were mainly investment cost of the selected technologies, life cycle, fuel prices, unit fuel consumption as well as data on emission factors and energy mix in the baseline and mitigation scenarios. Information on investment cost of the various technologies were based on 2014 prices and deflated to the base year (2010) prices. Assumptions on emission factors of the gases and the global warming potentials of the various fuels were based on standard figures used by the IPCC and presented as appendix 4. The cost effectiveness of the technologies was assessed by constructing the MAC curves. Based on these assumptions and the annualized investment costs of the technologies, the software computes the MAC curves which has been presented as figure 12.

Figure 12: Marginal cost curve

From figure 12, it could be seen that the most efficient technologies in terms of cost per ton of CO2 saved in order of increasing cost are: Biogas, Efficient Cookstoves, Solar Lanterns, LPG Stoves, Capacitor Banks, Fuel Switch Technology, Wind Power, Solar PVs, and BRT vehicles.

2.4.3.3 Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)

The second step in the process involved the prioritization of the technologies using an analytic hierarchy process. The process was based on cost effectiveness (MAC curve) and other

relevant national priorities which constituted the qualitative criteria - reliance on local technologies, reliance on domestic energy sources, potential for poverty alleviation, potential for improving air quality, technical feasibility, political/social popularity. These criteria were agreed upon at a workshop

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of the technical working groups, weighted and scored on a scale of 0 (highest) to 10 (lowest) in the case of the criteria taken from the cost curve and from 0 (bad) to 10 (good) in the case of the others as required by the software. Results of the prioritization is presented as figure 13.

Figure 13: Overall scores of mitigation technology ranking

From figure 13, it is observed that the prioritized technologies were considered optimal and feasible for Ghana. These technologies formed the basis for the development of the mitigation scenarios. Evidently the implementation of these mitigation actions are in line with key strategies identified in the GSGDA II that has bearings on climate change mitigation - promotion of energy efficiency in all aspects of life and the improvement of transport services and facilities. These mitigation technologies were combined with those in the AFOLU and waste sector to inform the setting up of the emission reduction goals under the unconditional and conditional mitigation scenarios.

2.4.3.4 Business as usual Scenario (WoM)

(a) Projected demand side energy demand up to 2030

As indicated in figure 14 which shows the final energy demand by type of fuel, under the BAU scenarios. The results show that final energy demand will increase from about 274.7 Million GJ in 2010 to about 716.7 Million GJ. With the exception of kerosene which will experience an overall reduction in average annual growth rate of about 10 percent from 2010 to 2030, all the other fuels will register a positive growth rate with solar having the highest (18 percent), followed by Jet Kerosene (17 percent), RFO (10 percent), electricity bulk (10 percent), LPG (7 percent), gasoline premix (3 percent), charcoal (3 percent) and wood (0.3 percent) over the period under consideration. The significant reduction rate in solar could be attributed to the expected shift in the use of solar applications as a result of conscious government renewable programs. There is the likelihood energy demand will more triple in the next 20 years if the trend continues. This trend will be considerably influenced by growing urban population changing lifestyles in cities; ability of government to implement its programme of increasing energy access.

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Figure 14: Energy demand final units

One important observation under the BAU scenario is that policies and programs the government of Ghana is pursuing although has immediate development imperatives, to some extent, will contribute to low carbon development objectives. This is due to the fact that renewables are expected to double their share in total energy demand. In terms of sectoral distribution, transport, households and the industrial sectors will be the major demand for energy (figure 15). While total final energy demand in transport is projected to increase from about 79.3 million GJ in 2010 to about 307.1 million GJ in 2030, that of the household and industrial sector will increase from about 144.7 million GJ and 37.8 million GJ in 2010 to about 202.3 million GJ and 155 million GJ in 2030 respectively. In percentage terms, the share of transport and industry demand in final energy demand will increase from about 28.9 percent and 13.8 percent in 2010 to about 42.9 percent and 21.6 percent in 2030 respectively, while that of the household sector is expected to decrease from about 52.7 percent in 2010 to 28.2 percent in 2030.

Figure 15: Final energy demand by sectors

The other three sectors – VALCO, commerce and service and agriculture will together increase their total final energy demand from about 12.7 million GJ in 2010 to about million 52.3 GJ in 2030. However, their share in total energy consumption will stabilize at about 7 percent over the period. The average annual growth rate of these sectors over the period under consideration is about 6 percent. However,

its low share in total final energy demand suggests that such a growth rate is permissible. The slow growth rate of household final energy demand in the midst of growing population may imply that there is going to be some increase in energy efficiency. However, the high growth rate of the transport and industrial sector and the increase in their share of final energy demand suggests that mitigation actions should focus in those areas. It is also striking to note that although total energy demand in VALCO is relatively low, the rate of growth will be astronomical. The observed trend may be a result of the projected increased in aluminum production.

(b) Transformation

The electricity generation capacity as at 2010 is around 1,950 MW. In 2030 it is envisaged to increase to about 6,395 MW when all the planned interventions such as solar plant, indigenous gas from Atuabo, imported LNG and coal fired thermal plants are included in the public electricity grid. In the event that coal is not used, the total capacity reduces to 4,395 MW. The implication is that the use of coal is cheaper and could lead to more energy generated. However, the emissions may be very high. Apart from the fact that the electricity mix may shift to depend more on thermal sources, legacy hydro sources such as Akosombo, Kpone and Bui will continue to complement it. This means the cost of electricity generation is expected to continue to rise alongside the increasing thermal share in the grid mix.

Figure 16: Project installed capacity for electricity generation

2.4.3.5 BAU scenario GHG Emissions

Under BAU scenario, GHG emissions are projected to rise from 12.7 MtCO2e in 2010 to 61.7 MtCO2e by 2030 (figure 17). Transport, electricity generation and households will be three largest source of emissions. Out of the three sources, transport is projected to be a major emission sources constituting an average of 40% of the total emissions from the energy sector. This will be followed by thermal electricity generation (28.9%), households (21.3%) and industry (8.2%). The rest of the emissions are expected to come from services and commerce and agriculture. The projected emission trends are likely to be driven by government policies in both the energy and transport sectors. For instance, the government’s aggressive renewable policies, utility subsidies, roll-back policy (petroleum products and electricity) including the kicking in of the automatic price formulae and the petroleum sector deregulation are expected to positively influence final energy consumption both in households, industry and transport.

The positive influence of these policies are likely to slow the rate of emission increase although not at levels when the trends reverse. On the other hand, factors such as the growing trend of rising population, high rate of urbanization and its associated changing lifestyles will continue to dictate the pace and the level of GHG emissions in the years ahead. In terms of gases, carbon dioxide will continue to remain the major GHG emission throughout the period of 2010-2030. It is projected that, CO2 emissions will make nearly 89% of the total energy sector emissions followed by methane (estimated at 9%) and nitrous oxide (estimated at 2%). The significant and increasing share of CO2 suggests that efforts in mitigation should focus more on carbon emissions in the energy sector.

Figure 17: Projected emission trends in BAU Scenario

2.4.3.6 Mitigation Scenario (WM – Unconditional and WAM – Conditional)

Two mitigation scenarios have been based on the emission reduction opportunities that exist in many of the productive economic sectors. The emission savings associated with WM mitigation scenario is based on the projection that government continues to unilaterally implement two of its mitigation actions in thermal electricity generation and national plantation development program. In the energy sector, under the unconditional mitigation scenario government is expected to scale up 120 MSCF natural gas replacement of light crude oil for electricity generation in thermal plants. Government of Ghana had invested 1 billion United States dollars to develop its natural processing plant operated by Ghana Gas Company. The plant has the capacity to produce 120 MSCF daily of natural gas first for the state-run thermal power plants managed by Volta River Authority. By 2030, this investment is projected to result in cumulative GHG emission reductions of 6.8MtCO2e.

Figure 18: Emission savings associated with unconditional mitigation scenario (scenario with measures -WM)

Under conditional mitigation scenario, seventeen mitigation actions have been identified for implementation should support from the international community is made available to Ghana. Out of the seventeen, ten of them have been selected from the energy sector. The cumulative projected emission savings by 2030 is estimated to be 17.7MtCO2e if all the ten energy mitigation actions are implemented as scheduled. The benefits of these investments are not limited to climate mitigation but their multiple benefits directly to energy security and sustainable development. From figure 19 it is observed that the projected emission reduction that Ghana will derive from the conditional mitigation actions will more than double by 2025 and 2030 if the country commits to the implementation schedule.

Figure 19: Emission savings with conditional mitigation scenario (Scenario with additional measures - WAM)

2.4.4 Agriculture and Forestry Sector Mitigation Scenarios

2.4.4.1 Prioritization of technology-based mitigation actions in the AFOLU Sector Similar prioritization steps adopted for the energy sector was used for the identification and screening of the mitigation actions under the Agriculture and Forestry sector. The screening processes is based on MCA approaches which had both quantitative and qualitative criteria. For the quantitative criteria, marginal abatement curves (MAC) was built for AFOLU technologies. The technologies considered in the prioritization process include: Reforestation, Agro-forestry, Protection of Natural Parks (NP),

Avoided deforestation, Afforestation and conservation. In the identification of the AFOLU mitigation technologies the following factors were considered: (a) alignment with government policies, (b) policy and financial commitment, (c) technical feasibility and social acceptance and (d) availability of reliable data and analytical tools. Using similar assumptions considered in the energy sector and the investment costs of the technologies the software computes the MAC which has been presented as figure 20.

The second step in the prioritization process using the Analytic Hierarchy Process that takes into consideration national development aspiration, together with the MAC curve yielded figure 21. As indicated in the figure, agriculture and forestry technologies that were considered optimal were: Reforestation (score 6.9), Afforestation (score 6.8), Avoided deforestation (score 6.6), Agro-forestry (score 6.3) Protection of NP (score 6.3) and Conservation (6.2). Based on the prioritization, reforestation, afforestation, avoided forestation and agro-forestry were in the unconditional and conditional mitigation scenario. For the unconditional mitigation scenario, investment in the afforestation was put forward. This would be achieved through the national plantation development program. The target is to plant 10,000ha of on-reserve and off-reserve degraded areas every year till 2030. The cumulative impact is what Ghana plan to use to attain part of its unconditional emission reduction goals.

Figure 20: Marginal abatement curve for mitigation technologies

Evidently the implementation of these mitigation actions are in line with key strategies identified in the GSGDA II - promotion of sustainable forest management and implementation of forest governance initiatives; education and efficient management practices.

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Figure 21: Overall score of AFOLU mitigation technologies

2.4.4.2 AFOLU Mitigating scenarios In the forestry sector, the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) software developed by the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory was used to assess the CO2 mitigation potential of different mitigation actions in forest management. The COMAP model was selected because it is flexible to adopt to fit conditions in the Ghanaian landscape compared to other models such as Agricultural and Land Use (ALU) and ExACT. In addition, the COMAP is less data intensive and allows the assessment to be made at the national scale. Data for the model came from the 2010 land use matrix generated by the Forest Preservation Project (FPP) of the FC. For Ghana, three types of mitigation options were considered feasible in the model. This is due to the fact that other mitigation actions – bio energy for fossil fuel substitution, short rotation forestry and natural regeneration were not feasible mitigation options for Ghana. The three types are: Biomass pool and supply management (Avoided deforestation), Afforestation and Reforestation. The objective of the assessment was principally to measure the incremental carbon benefit generated by these mitigation actions. The assessment also calculated the cost and benefits of the mitigation action where possible. In the next section we provide some information on the assumption under each mitigation action and the results.

(c) Biomass pool and supply management (Avoided deforestation)

This intervention is based on the promotion of sustainable supply of land-based products. Its goal is to estimate the changes in biomass (and carbon) stocks from the baseline as a result of the mitigation action. Specifically, the intervention estimates the supply of biomass under Baseline (BSL) and Mitigation (MIT) scenarios from 2010 to 2030 using the following steps:

a. Identification of the area under different land use categories and biomass density in soil and vegetation,

b. Determination and inclusion of projected and sustainable extraction rates of selected land-based products,

c. Determination of demand and supply of various products.

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In terms of the identification of land use category, four types of land use categories can be identified for Ghana. Table 17 summarizes the various information on the different land use category and the biomass densities.

Table 15: Basic information on land categories

Land Description Area in 2010 (ha)

Biomass density (t/ha) BSL

Biomass density (t/ha) MIT

Protected Forest Area (PFA)

Wildlife protected areas where there is no extraction activity.

1,348,900

13

18

Other Forest Land (OFL)

All other forest types (production forest, off-reserves, plantations etc) with the exception of protected areas.

7,697,500

130

130

Grasslands (GL)

All other lands that are not classified as annual cropland and fall below the threshold of a forest.

8,149,640 37.98

37.98

Annual cropland (ACL)

Lands classified as used for annual crops. 5,206,270

53.39 53.39

Biomass density in tons per ha for the various land categories is used by the software to generate the total annual biomass supply for each land category. With regards to the determination and inclusion of projected and sustainable extraction rates of selected land-based products, we use data from the FPP and expert guestimates. Product extraction rates in tons per ha is used together with growth rate of other socio economic parameters for 2010 and 2030 to generate total annual product demand for agricultural waste, wood fuel, industrial wood, agricultural products and livestock. Data/assumptions on projected and sustainable extraction rate for the baseline and mitigation scenarios and socio economic data used in projecting demand has been presented as appendices 6 and 7 respectively. Using these parameters, the software estimates the difference in incremental biomass pool between the BSL and MIT scenarios for the period 2010 and 2030 and using a factor of 1 ton of biomass to 0.470 tons of carbon, we estimate the carbon savings. To convert the carbon savings to CO2 we multiplied by a factor of 3.7. From results it could be seen that the biomass pool and supply management mitigation action could potentially increase the difference in incremental biomass (DIB) pool by 23 million tons in 2010. This would increase steadily to 143 million tons in 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. This translates to about 39 million tons of CO2 savings in 2010 increasing to 248 million tons of CO2 savings in 2030.

(d) Reforestation

The reforestation mitigation action aims at reforesting degraded lands. The action will focus on convalescence areas of production forests. The area under convalescence was estimated at 122,000 ha. The assumption was that between the years 2010 and 2020, 12,200 ha of this area would have recovered and the remaining 109,800 ha of degraded land will be continuously reforested till it gets to zero in 2030. Standing vegetation carbon, carbon density and the addition to stored soil carbon for BSL and MIT are used to estimate the Annually Created Incremental Carbon Pool (ACICP). Streams of cost for reforestation and their respective benefits from reforestation were used to estimate incremental benefits for the mitigation action. The results show the ACICP, CO2 savings and the Incremental Net Benefit (INB). From the table it could be seen that ACICP will decrease significantly from about 3887 ktC in 2021 to about 143 ktC in 2030 which will translate into CO2 savings of about 14,381 ktC in 2010 and 529 ktC in 2030. Cumulatively, there is going to be ACICP of about 17,433 which translates into 64,504.7 ktCO2 over the 40-year period. Financial analysis of the mitigation action indicates that from a cost of US$ 519 in 2021, the INB would increase to about US$ 21,889 in 2030.

2.4.5 Waste sector mitigation scenarios In the waste sector, the assessment of mitigation potential was focused on solid waste management options. This is because solid waste disposal is one of the major contributors of emissions in the waste sector. The rising trends in emission is closely linked to population, urbanization and changing urban lifestyles. With a projected national population of nearly 35 million in 2030 and per capita waste generation of 0.6kg/capita/day, total solid waste is expected to rise by 11.9 million tons every year. The management of such volumes of waste has major logistic and financial challenges especially to city authorities. Similarly, GHG emissions are likely to more than quadruple compared to the 2010-2012 average of 1.4MtCO2e by 2030. There are opportunities for avoiding such levels of emissions. The Solid Waste Management (SWM) GHG Calculator developed by GIZ in 2010 was used to model potential GHG emissions in the waste sector. The SWM-GHG Calculator allowed quantification and comparison of GHG emissions for different waste management strategies at an early stage in the decision making process. Additionally, the SWM-GHG Calculator provides guidance information on the costs associated with different waste management strategies. In order to ensure consistency in the baseline scenario, the assessment of mitigation potential for solid waste management option was done using the historical emission pattern of solid waste disposal. The main input data for the model was sources from the solid waste data used in the 2012 national GHG inventory which was collected from several national and international sources.

2.4.5.1 Parameters in the SWM-GHG calculator model

(e) Technical Parameters in SWM-GHG Calculator

The GHG Mitigation assessment focused on selected number of waste management technologies which is broadly grouped into different treatments (a) recycling technologies and (b) waste disposal technologies. The method used by the SWM-GHG Calculator follows the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach although it does not replace a full LCA of the selected technologies. Waste management strategies has been compared by calculating the GHG emissions of the “different recycled” (paper/cardboard, plastics, metals, organic waste) and “disposed of waste fractions” over their whole life cycle – from "cradle to grave". The tool sums up the emissions of all residual waste or recycling streams respectively and calculates the total GHG emissions of all process stages in CO2 equivalents. The emissions calculated also include all future emissions caused by a given quantity of treated waste. This means that when waste is sent to a landfill, for example, the calculated GHG emissions, given in ton CO2 equivalent per ton waste, include the cumulated emissions this waste amount will generate during its degradation. This method corresponds to the "Tier 1" approach described in IPCC (1996, 2006). Up to four different waste management systems can be compared using the SWM-GHG Calculator (table 18). In addition to the baseline, three user-definable scenarios namely mitigation option 1(low ambition), mitigation option 2 (moderate ambition) and mitigation option 3 (high ambition) has been analyzed. The table provides definition of the baseline and mitigation (alternative) scenarios.

Table 16: Definition of baseline and alternative scenarios

Management options

Descriptions of scenarios

Baseline scenario as at 2010-2012

Describes a typical situation in Ghana where no appropriate sanitary waste management currently takes place. Recycling of solid waste (mainly plastic and some organic waste) is on limited scale. Inadequate incentive for private sector to expand capacity to recycle. Household waste collection is at 70% with increased participation of private sector through public private partnerships. The majority of the waste is dumped on unmanaged disposal sites under anaerobic conditions producing methane. Other parts are disposed of in low heaps (“scattered disposal”) under aerobic conditions, producing mainly carbon dioxide. Half of the scattered waste is burnt in open fires producing extreme air pollution.

Mitigation option 1 (low ambition) scenario in 2030

Improved recycling of plastics and composting of food waste; eliminate scattering of waste in the landscape; reduce open burning of scattered waste; reduce crude dumping waste and tap gas from existing landfill including sanitary landfills. This is a scenario close to the status quo.

Mitigation option 2 (moderate ambition) scenario in 2030

This scenario is similar to option 1 but greater ambition in the effort. Recycling and composting will further be improved; complete elimination of waste scattering; open burning is minimized to its barest minimum; taps more landfill gas and constructs new sanitary landfills.

Mitigation option 3 (high ambition) scenario in 2030

This scenario is the most ambitious. Current capacity for recycling of plastic and composting is more than tripled; complete elimination of scattering of solid waste and open burning; reduction of crude dumping to its minimum, reduction of untapped gas landfill, and construction of sanitary landfill with gas collection.

The range of choice threshold of treatment for the baseline (table 19) was based on the data collected from district assemblies and waste service providers.

Table 17: Range of options for baseline and alternative scenarios

Baseline Mitigation option 1

Mitigation option 2

Mitigation option 3

1. Recycling management systems Recycle 0.11% 10% 15% 20% Compost 3% 10% 20% 25% Digestion 0% 0% 0% 0% 2. Disposal management systems Unplanned treatments

Scattered waste not burned 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Open burning of scattered waste 2.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% Wild dumps/unmanaged disposal site

14.8% 9.8% 4.8% 1.0%

Simple treatment Technologies

Controlled dump/landfill without gas collection

80.0% 71.9% 60.7% 50.0%

Sanitary landfill with gas collection 0.0% 10.0% 21.9% 32.6%

BS + landfill

Advanced treatment technologies

MBT + further treatment + landfill

MBS/MPS + co-processing cement kiln

Incineration 0.7% 6.6% 12.0% 16.4%

BS: Biological stabilization MBT: Mechanical-biological treatment MBS/MPS: Mechanical-biological stabilization / mechanical-physical stabilization

The treatment capacities range attributed to the three mitigation options projected for 2030 was informed by current installed capacities of the water treatment technologies and how national policy on private sector participation models in solid waste management becomes attractive for private sector to mobilize additional capital to invest. The projection was, current private capital in waste management will more than double by 2030. In addition, enforcement of environmental standards and regulation on waste disposal by government will be strengthened.

(f) Cost parameters of technologies

Typical default cost figures for the different activities have been deduced here from interview from local private operators and compared with industry prices available in international literature. The values represent average total costs (dynamic prime costs) and may vary considerably according to national and local conditions. The level of technology also has an important influence on the total cost. The cost of establishing collection systems are also assumed to be required in each scenario and are not taken into account. Table 20 shows the cost range used in the model. Taking into account the current cost of doing business in Ghana, the maximum dynamic cost range was used. Table 18: Cost of solid waste disposal technologies

Dynamic prime costs (DPC) Min Max Euro/t

Controlled dump/landfill without gas collection 3 5 5

Sanitary landfill with gas collection 12 20 20

BS + landfill 15 25 25

MBT + further treatment + landfill 40 60 60

MBS/MPS + co-processing cement kiln 50 80 80

Incineration 90 150 90

Recycling of dry waste 0 5 5

Composting 20 40 40

Digestion 60 90 90

Based on the model more waste will be treated in 2030 using mitigation option 3 (table 21), suggesting that if the objective is to increase waste treatment then that option is the optimal. Table 19: Solid waste treatment per each option

Total waste Baseline Mit Option 1 Mit Option 2 Mit Option 3

11,866,953 11,866,953 11,866,953 11,866,953

Recycled /Compost Waste 182,490 961,223 1,874,979 2,355,590

Food waste 150,592 557,747 1,115,494 1,394,367

Garden & park waste 30,854 308,541 617,082 771,352

Paper, cardboard 0 0 0 0

Plastics 1,044 94,936 142,403 189,871

Disposed of waste 11,684,463 10,905,730 9,991,974 9,511,363

Scattered 222,005 0 0 0

Burned-open 303,796 185,397 59,952 0

Wild dump 1,729,301 1,068,762 479,615 95,114

Controlled landfill 9,347,570 7,841,220 6,065,128 4,755,681

Sanitary landfill 0 1,090,573 2,188,242 3,100,704

Incineration 81,791 719,778 1,199,037 1,559,864

With regards to emission reductions, information from table 22 indicates that mitigation option 3 (high ambition) has the most attractive emission reduction, compared to the other two options as net emission will be the lowest of 10.1 MtCO2e per year. This is as result of the combination of increased intervention of recycling, composting, elimination of waste scattering and open burning and landfill/sanitary landfills with gas collection taking place. Disaggregation figures of emissions by technology which is presented as appendix 8 suggests that emission will be more driven by disposable waste.

Table 20: GHG emissions from recycling and disposal of solid waste (Tones CO2 Equivalent)

Treatment Types

Baseline Mit Option 1 Mit Option 2 Mit option 3

Recycled

Debit 16,854 172,439 296,342 382,561

Credits -18,737 -218,672 -369,157 -478,493

Disposed

Debit 17,175,506 15,589,137 12,386,162 10,199,531

Credits 0 0 -23,715 0

Total

Debit 17,192,359 15,761,576 12,682,504 10,582092

Credits -18,737 -218,672 -392,872 -478,493

Net 17,173,622 15,542,903 12,289,632 10,103,598

In table 23 the summary results on the cost per ton of emissions reduction has been presented. Detailed results on the absolute costs for the calculated scenario and the mitigation costs per ton of GHG emissions for the calculated scenario compared to Baseline (BSL) has been presented as appendices 9 and 10 respectively. Based on the GHG emission reduction volume and the cost, mitigation option 3 (high ambition) again appears attractive and therefore would be recommended. However, there are additional factors such as assimilative capacities, policy alignment, market and technology that must be considered with the wider discussion of implementation. Table 21: Mitigation cost per ton


Total GHG emissions (tCO2e/yr)

17,173,622 15,542,903 12,289,632 10,103,598

Total costs (euro/yr) 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321

Mitigation cost (euro/t CO2e)

- 61 39 36

2.5 Barrier Analysis

2.5.1 General barriers and recommendations A number of barriers could constrain efforts by Ghana to implement the strategy. These barriers are realistic, current and require attention. In the next sections we elaborate on these barriers which include technology, economic and financial, capacity, behavioral and information and awareness.

2.5.1.1 Technology

The significant role of technology in sustainable economic development and transformation cannot be disputed by any development expert. Even the classical school of economics which held the view that the wealth and growth of nations depend on natural resource endowment were quick to admit that growth of knowledge and technical progress - technology would counteract this effect. Khan (1997) argues that technology has the potential to play a substantial role in accelerating sustainable development in developing countries and the application of science to industrial organization would

bring untold benefits to many African countries.

Over the past half century, many developed economies have used technology to transform systems and structures to increase productivity in many sectors. Many things which were done manually have been automated resulting in efficiency in production and consumption. Unfortunately, participation of Ghana and Africa in general in this technological advancement is not impressive and has led to the “technological divide’ that exists today between Africa and the rest of the world. Specifically, there has been challenges in technology transfer, adoption and diffusion. In addition, many research institutions are not adequately funded and in most cases are not linked to the private sector which can develop the research findings for commercial use.

There is very little initiative by governments to increase the mandate of universities and public research institutions to respond to changing scientific opportunities through granting more autonomy, adopting new funding instruments, relying more on contract-based funding, etc. This has made it difficult for research institutions to contribute more meaningfully to sustainable development in the area of technology transfer, adoption and diffusion.

Major policies and government-sponsored programs to foster international collaboration among researchers in universities and public research organizations, including programs related to very large and smaller scale research equipment are quite limited in Ghana. Another challenge is the development of science and engineering graduates from universities and institutions who can undertake Ghana-specific research. In many universities and institutions, the equipment to train graduates in science and engineering are obsolete or non- available. Establishing collaboration and networking among private firms through joint research and development programs, regional innovative clusters, international co-operation, especially in the area of attracting research labs of foreign firms or supporting access of domestic firms to foreign programs is also inadequate.

Already Ghana has developed a science and technology policy on the proper implementation of the science and technology policy that is meant to correct the legislative, administrative, organizational, institutional and other challenges that constraint technology transfer, adaptation and diffusion. In addition, Ghana has conducted two technology needs assessment to identify and priorities major technologies that need to support the implementation of mitigation actions in Ghana. Out of the technology needs assessment, a technology action plan for adaptation technologies has been prepared for implementation. In addition, Ghana has appointed a technology transfer focal point at the EPA who interfaces with the work of Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) and project developers who are seeking for international support. Recently, the Government of Denmark through the World Bank has also established Ghana Climate Innovation Centre (GCIC). The GCIC has been established at Ashesi University, Ghana to provide support to Ghanaian entrepreneurs and new ventures involved in

developing profitable and locally appropriate solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation. The USD 17.2 program will provide targeted support, mentoring, training and funding facilitation for about 100 companies over 5 years.

2.5.1.2 Economic and financial barriers

Economic and financial barriers possess a significant challenge that can impede the development and implementation of the mitigating actions. The high initial cost of investment in mitigation technologies and equipment is beyond the reach of many Ghanaian firms and individuals and even if available, spending on many of these mitigation actions which can be very expensive will in the short to medium term go against the immediate development challenges - poverty reduction. Also, economic factors such as small size and incomes of firms and individuals respectively and the low production volume will make it difficult for many of them to afford these technologies.

The challenge is how to develop innovative and sustainable financing mechanisms to finance these mitigation actions. It must also be recognized that many mitigation actions may not in the short term yield very positive returns and therefore may not be attractive to the private sector even though it is the main vehicle for the implementation of the strategies. The challenge is for government to introduce appropriate fiscal incentives that will encourage the private sector to finance these mitigation actions.

Fiscal barriers are issues related to tax, subsidy and debt policies promulgated by governments that impact on the markets for climate change mitigation technologies. While fiscal policies are very important and can be used to promote mitigation activities, inappropriate use of such policies can also act as a disincentive to the implementation of mitigation strategies. For example, existing subsidies on fuels can act as a barrier to the commercialization and deployment of green technologies since it can significantly lower final energy prices and thereby put renewable energy options at a disadvantage, if commensurate subsidies are not introduced. Such subsidies exist in almost all natural resource sectors –water, soil, forestry, among others, and encourage the overexploitation of the resource. The effective implementation of the EFR as well as the development of innovative financing mechanisms will help immensely to resolve this barrier. The nature of competition and future market potential for the mitigation actions are also relevant in enhancing the implementation of the strategy.

2.5.1.3. Institutional barriers

A major barrier to the implementation of the LCDS is the inadequacies in the existing institutional setup and/or their networking. Institutions in the context of the LCDS are defined here broadly to include the behavioral patterns or entities pertaining to both the supply and demand-side of the actions as well as the laws, regulations, conventions, customs and practices which shape these behavior. Evidently, the nature of these institutions is partly responsible for the outcomes of the implementation of the strategies. Inadequate coordination among different stakeholders in implementing a particular program can cause obstacles to improve efficiency.

Proper implementation of the agreed mitigation actions should involve a clear system that will regulate prices of natural resources, pollution and standards of production and performance as well as clear policies in almost all the sectors. In Ghana, there are institutional overlaps. This makes it difficult for stakeholders seeking guidance or approval for a mitigation project and even where there are adequate structures, weak institutions, poor administrative structure and corruption may constrain implementation and consequently reduce their effectiveness. Lack of proper integration of the sectors with the environment during policy formulation and the non-existence of labels/standards for some technologies, products/processes poses a challenge.

In the agriculture and forestry sectors, most of the responsibilities have been devolved to the district level. Even though decentralization is important since it encourages local monitoring of mitigation projects, the weak local governance system as well as inadequate capacity could constrain

implementation. In a gist, some of the key regulatory barriers to climate change mitigation include: the poor division of authority and coordination among MDAs, insufficient policy incentives to promote mitigation actions, poor enforcement of existing rules/regulations and improper implementation of policies/programs, among others.

2.5.1.4 Behavioral barrier

Behavioral characteristics of individuals and firms will play a significant role in the implementation of the strategy. Many Ghanaian firms and individuals are typically averse to change and even where they will agree to adopt to a change it may take some time, especially the aged and rural folks. For example, it is argued that certain tribes prefer to use firewood to cook certain food because of the taste the smoke give the food while some food vendors prefer using kerosene lanterns popularly known as bobo because it drives away flies. Also, companies, especially small and medium scale companies may consider themselves too small to make any significant impact on emissions and may not have the time to assess the effect of mitigation technologies, among others. These are serious barriers that need to be addressed through awareness creation, sensitization and education on the LCDS.

2.5.1.5 Information and awareness barrier

Majority of individuals and small scale firms have non-professional educational background and sometimes rely on external assistance for technical and managerial matters concerning their production and consumption decisions. Also, many people and firms are located in rural areas which makes it difficult for them to obtain relevant and current information. The limited capacity of government information dissemination system has also made it difficult for the population to access information. Currently the existence of information and awareness challenges is adequately reflected in the poor knowledge of Ghanaians on climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation. The solution lies in engaging print and electronic media and the organization of lectures, workshops, training programs, seminars, etc., on low carbon technologies at the local, district, regional and national levels.

2.5.1.6 Capacity barrier

The implementation of a low carbon development strategy will require specialized capacities and skills in many areas of green technology at the district, regional and national levels. This is a critical barrier to implementation. For instance, there is limited supply of skilled personnel who can install, operate and maintain energy efficient technologies such as solar photovoltaic (PV), industrial efficient motors, wind mills, biogas which is a critical barrier to the adoption and diffusion of those technologies. The capacity barrier is more acute in rural areas where inadequate skills has limited mitigation in the energy, agriculture, waste and forestry sectors. Unfortunately, these are the areas where mitigation will be more required.

Capacities will not only be required at this level but also at the regulatory, project implementation, monitoring, reporting and verification levels with the view to learning lessons for future implementation.

2.5.2 Prioritization of barriers and recommendations to enable LCDS implementation In prioritizing the five barriers: technology, economic and financial, capacity, behavioral and information and awareness identified in Section 2.5.1. We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) which is a powerful and flexible multi-criteria decision-making tool that incorporates qualitative and quantitative aspects of a decision developed by Saaty (1980). The framework has three levels - goal, criteria and barriers (alternatives). Based on literature and expert view the four important criteria considered relevant to prioritize the barriers are:

Barrier Intensity -indicates the extent to which the strategy encounters the existence of a particular barrier. A barrier with high intensity is likely to pose a bigger challenge to the implementation of the strategy. It is not possible to achieve a barrier intensity of zero for all the barriers and therefore the aim is to reduce the barrier intensity to the lowest value possible.

Ease of removing barrier – indicates the level of effort required to eliminate/reduce the barrier and such efforts may require capital, time, human resources, policy changes, among others and may differ from one barrier to the other.

Impact of barrier removal on strategy – indicates the level to which the removal of the barrier will positively affect the strategy.

Impact of barrier removal on the economy - indicates the level to which the removal of the barrier will impact positively on individuals, firms through improved productivity and efficiency and consequently on the overall economy.

Figure 22: Prioritization of general barriers

To assess the importance of these criteria, we assigned weights to them. After intensive discussions and consultations, the following weights were attached to the various criteria: barrier intensity (20), ease of removing barrier (20), impact of barrier removal on strategy (40) impact of barrier removal on the economy (20). Using a scale of 1 (less important) to (10 more important) the indicators were ranked. Using this methodology, the prioritization of the barriers is presented as figure 22. Details of both the absolute and weighted ranking is presented as appendices 11 and 12 respectively. From the figure it can be observed that the most important barrier is the economic and financial barrier followed by capacity, institutional, technology, behavioral and information and awareness in order of decreasing importance.

2.5.3 Specific barriers In addition to the general barriers discussed in section 2.5.1, there are technology specific barriers that need to be addressed if the strategies outlined in the various sectors are to achieve their desired results. In the next sections, we discuss the barriers and the recommendations thereon.

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Technology Economic andFinancial

Institutional Behavioral Information andawareness

Capacity

2.5.3.1 Specific Barriers in the Energy Sector

Mitigation technology that were adopted in the energy sector are the use of LPG cook stoves, improved cookstoves, biogas, renewables and BT vehicles.

(g) Cookstoves

The use of LPG stoves and improved cookstoves as a mitigation technology has several mitigation benefits in that, it has an abatement potential of about 2.9+ 7.3 MtCO2e up to 2030. There are several sustainable development benefits to be obtained from the implementation of these mitigation actions. These include improved human health through the reduction in respiratory infections, cardiovascular diseases, drudgery to women and children, etc, resulting from reduced indoor air pollution; reduction in desertification and deforestation resulting from the less use of fuelwood and charcoal for cooking and heating and the potential reduction in expenditure on fuel by households, and consequently, increasing incomes resulting from efficiency improvement from the use of LPG and improved cookstoves and job creation through the manufacture and sale of the improved LPG and improved cookstoves. Implementation of these mitigation actions is quite consistent with sector policies and programs. The Energy Policy and Energy Sector Strategy has a key policy objective to increase LPG access to households and public institutions from 9.5% in 2008 to at least 50% by 2020 and a policy on the use of improved cookstoves with a goal to distribute two million (2,000,000) cookstoves by the year 2020. In spite of these benefits, there are many challenges that confront the implementation of these mitigation actions. Table 24 highlights the various challenges associated with the implementation of the mitigation action and the possible solution.

Table 22: Challenges and solutions to the implementation of LPG and improved stove mitigation actions

Challenge Solution

Inadequate production and supply. Maximum LPG production capacity of Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) is about 52,000 tons per year which is on the average about 44.4% of total national consumption between 2000 and 2010). Inadequate infrastructure for the importation of LPG Inadequate funds for the importation of LPG to supplement local production from TOR

Ministry of Petroleum to Chair an Inter-Agency LPG Policy Monitoring Committee (PMC) to ensure sustained supply of LPG and eliminate perennial shortages by monitoring all policy measures on LPG Government should facilitate the private sector to invest in LPG discharge and storage infrastructure (Government has secured funding for BOST to construct an LPG terminal in the Western Region as a hub for trans-shipment to other parts of the country). Make credit facilities available (Banking syndicate).

Inadequate margins for filling stations owners to cover the cost of investments and operations. Unfavorable pricing and subsidy policy that discourages the importation, supply and distribution of LPG. Inadequate promotion of the technology

Guarantee reasonable margins for storage facilities provided through private sector investment. Encourage private retail/service companies to re-introduce door to door marketing and distribution of filled LPG cylinders and to establish large LPG bottle refilling plants in Tema, Kumasi and Tamale that are able to test, certify and refill LPG cylinders for the market.

Undertake more education on the importance of the shift from the use of traditional cookstoves to improved cookstoves and LPG stoves

Inadequate regulations and safety standards to govern the industry; Importation and use of imported second-hand and other sub-standard equipment: trucks, tankers, pumps, dispensers, cylinders, cookers, hoses, regulators, etc; Lack of knowledge and skills with respect to the handling of LPG and associated equipment; Negligence on the part of persons using LPG or operating LPG equipment. Poor monitoring of LPG usage

Ghana Standards Authority to involve other stakeholders in developing and introducing standards, regulations and certification of cookers and fuels. (A technical committee made up of regulatory bodies, manufacturers and trade associations already formed to develop standards for the sector)

Improve Inspection of cylinders at filling stations and retail outlets across the country. Teaming up with DVLA and the Ghana Police Service to enforce the provisions in Road Transport Regulations, 2012, L.I. 2180 on installation of cylinders in vehicles and usage of LPG by motor vehicles. Providing technical assistance to Ghana cylinder manufacturing Company and other Small and Medium Enterprises to manufacture affordable cookstoves as well as smaller, portable and user-friendly cylinders at subsidized prices Develop, monitor and enforce clear standards, procedures and regulations to improve safety. Promote public education in the LPG sub-sector. EC to provide effective leadership in data collection and policy studies.

(h) BRT vehicles

Implementation of the BRT mitigation action has the potential to abate about 1 MtCO2e up to 2030. Even though the emission reduction is not that significant, there are a lot of sustainable development benefits that the nation stands to benefit from the implementation of this mitigation action. Reduction in pollution could bring about some health benefits since the inhalation of exhaust fumes which has many negative health consequences will reduce.

Table 23: Challenges confronting the implementation BRT and possible solutions

Challenge Solution

Huge financial requirement for construction of bus lanes, bus stops, vehicle procurement

Use Public Private Partnership (PPP) for BRT infrastructure development and provision of buses, etc. (National Policy on PPP already in place) Government could consider raising equity capital to finance Mass Transit Projects.

Low rate of returns on investments in buses by the private sector as a result of poor road networks, poor city planning system that results in traffic congestion, frequent breakdown of vehicles, high rate of human-induced accidents, among others.

Creating financial and economic incentives for the private sector, repair road constantly, among others to reduce the cost of doing business.

Lack of a comprehensive legal framework for urban passenger transport regulation regarding routes, parking places, fares,

Develop a BRT‘s regulatory framework that defines directly or indirectly the level of service required for consumers and the overall performance required of the sector. (Framework should clearly define the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders in the sector -drivers, owners, representative unions and trade

associations, social regulations concerning driving and rest periods, routing, parking places, fares as well as sanctions for non-compliance, etc.

Lack of functional institutional capacity; shortage of suitably qualified and experienced technical personnel to undertake more rigorous transport planning, capacity to plan and implement traffic management, inadequate consultation and coordination.

Strengthen the institutional and organizational capacity of the various organizations responsible for the implementation of the urban transport. (There is already an urban transport program in place that aims at addressing some of these issues)

Unstructured and haphazard methods of bus/car boarding Loss of business for existing taxi and trotro operators due to the introduction of mass transit.

More awareness and education should be undertaken on etiquette and courtesies on the use of mass transit systems. Organize workshops to discuss the institutional and operational alternatives for these groups and ensure that they operate along other corridors. Support some of them to form associations and participate in bidding for route franchising.

There is going to be a significant reduction in transport energy bill measured by the cost of the fuel saved as a result of the use of BRT buses which will depend on the international prices of oil. The reduction in energy bill will also result in a significant reduction in the demand for foreign exchange to import oil since oil imports averagely form about 25 percent of total merchandise imports. Further, implementation of the BRT mitigation action will lead to an increase in permanent and temporary jobs through maintenance of vehicles, enforcement of regulations, ticket sales, cleaning of buses and terminals, among others. From the economic perspective, improvements in efficiency can bring about reduction in cost of transportation. Since transport service is an intermediary input to almost every production process, it is possible that this reduction in cost can translate to a reduction in the prices of goods and services. Also, reduction in travel and waiting time brought about by the improved service can make a lot more time available to passengers which can be used on other productive ventures.

Reduction in the cost of transport resulting from the use of efficient BRT systems will provide passengers, especially those in the lower income quintiles, with more funds as well as efficient transport which could enhance their economic opportunities. Such opportunities could in the long run help them to reduce poverty. Also, with an efficient transport system, access to health and educational facilities will be improved which can yield some positive dividends for the poor. Reduction in traffic congestion which sometimes lead to stress among many passengers may also reduce. The implementation of this mitigation action is also in line with the national strategies and goals in the transport sector. The National Transport Policy has comprehensive strategies that aim at addressing urban transport. In particular, the policy target is to ensure that about 80% of all trips in urban areas are done through public Mass Transit Systems. This mitigation action is strongly supported by the National Transport Policy and the Urban Transport Policy. Despite the enormous benefits of the mitigation action, there are some challenges that may constraint its implementation as presented in table 25 together with their possible solutions.

(i) Renewable Energy

The renewable mitigation actions in the LCDS is anchored on the implementation of the Scaling- Up Renewable Energy Program (SREP) with funding from the climate investment fund (CIF). The implementation of the SREP will be coordinated by the Ministry of Power. The total estimated budget for implementing the SREP-Ghana Investment Plan is USD 230 million. In addition to the

USD 40 million being requested from SREP the program is seeking contributions from the Multi-Donor Budget Support, development partners, private sector investors and commercial banks. The SREP funding is being requested by African Development Bank (AfDB) and the International Financial Corporation. USD 30 million is being requested by the AfDB to implement Project 1 (Renewable energy mini-grids and stand-alone solar PV systems) and Project 2 (Solar PV based net metering with battery storage), while USD 10 million is being requested by IFC to implement Project 3 (Utility scale solar PV/wind power generation). Project4 (Technical assistance to scale-up RE) will be implemented by the AfDB through its Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA) Trust Fund. Although having secured this funding from the Climate Investment fund (CIF) is a major step in addressing some of financial barriers in RE, there are still major challenges facing the RE adoption in Ghana. Table 26 provides summary of the barriers and some suggested solutions.

Table 24: Challenges confronting the implementation RE and possible solutions

Challenge Solution

1. Technical Skills

Limited capacity of the utilities, regulators and financial institutions and project developers to structure and negotiate bankable PPAs

- Bilateral arrangements with the Government of China, Japan and India, as well as the EU to provide technical assistance to build short-and long-term capacities for utilities.

- Current stock of skilled RE personnel still insufficient

Limited capacity in appropriate selection of re technology options and inefficient operation and maintenance of complex re technology machinery and equipment

- MoP supporting Ghana Standards Authority and The Energy Centre (TEC) of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST) to develop capacities for testing RETs.

- MoP and the Chinese Government providing TA to selected polytechnics and technical/vocational institutions to build critical middle level manpower for the industry.

- German government assisting in the development of RE curricula for technical and vocational training under the Council for Technical and Vocational Education and Training.

- Number of trained RE specialists is still not high enough to meet current and future demand.

Insufficient RE resource data - With support of The World Bank, comprehensive wind and biomass resources assessments are ongoing to reduce development risks of utility-scale RETs.

- SECO and AfDB financing various aspects of hydro studies. - Wind and solar data obtainable from Energy Commission at

very low cost.

- The data on other renewables is still inadequate nor is there sufficient site specific wind and solar data for all viable locations in Ghana.

Renewables such as mini-hydro susceptible to adverse effects of climate change (e.g., drought)

- GoG actively pursuing several mitigation and adaptation measures including the use of the International Hydropower Association (IHA) early stage risk assessment protocol.

- Reforestation of the catchment areas of the country’s major river systems.

2. Institutional/Regulatory

Regulatory burden for small-scale re developers compounded by absence of a one-stop centre

- MoP and relevant regulator institutions reviewing the option of developing light regulation and establishing a one-stop platform for processing and approving applications.

Absence of a clear criteria differentiating communities that would benefit from off-grid and grid-connected electrification

- MoP with support from The World Bank is conducting a comprehensive GIS-based study to establish and prioritize the suitable electrification options for the remaining nearly 20% of the country’s population.

- Preliminary results of the GIS work showed that island and lakeside communities are most likely to benefit from RE off-grid electrification due to the high cost of grid-extension.

Limited structural arrangement for operation and management of off-grid re investments

- In the interim, the Renewable and Alternative Energy Directorate (RAED) ismanaging the assets.

- Efforts underway to establish the Renewable Energy Authority with the mandate to own, operate and manage RE investments in which the state has an interest.

Lack of commitment to enforce approved regulatory and legal frameworks

- AAF (Automatic Adjustment Formula for RE FIT), system implementation on-going.

- GoG demonstrating political will to ensure less or no interference. Utilities are installing prepaid meters in all public facilities as a result, with the exception of essential public sectors such as hospitals, etc.

3. Financial

Perceived investor risk related to RE sector in Ghana

- The AfDB and WB are examining the option of providing PRGs (Partial Risk Guarantees) to provide investors in the power sector to mitigate the utilities credit risk.

High up-front cost of RE technologies supported by RE FIT for a maximum of only 10 years

- EC developed relevant policy tools such as: RE tarrif setting methodologies, licensing procedures and guidelines, RE purchase obligations; and standard PPA templates, etc. These are useful tools but cannot on their own overcome the problem of short duration FIT (10 years).

Inadequate financing and high cost of capital

- KfW has established an office in Ghana and is already providing financing for a 12MW solar project to VRA.

- Ecobank and National Investment Bank are two national financing institutions planning to establish RE portfolios to fund RE development.

Low end-user electricity tariffs increase FIT burden on utilities and GoG

- Upward adjustment of electricity tariffs to the tune of about 90% by 2013.

- Implementation of the automatic adjustment tarrif system which should strengthen utilities balance sheets and enhance their capacity to absorb future FIT payments (current RE FIT payments are still low, reflecting the limited number of grid connected RE installations).

- RED-FIT reviewed with the revised rates gazetted in October, 2014.

Weak balance sheets of current utilities

- On-going efforts to enforce technical and revenue leakage reduction mechanisms/strategies including replacement of all credit meters with prepaid meters.

- With the exception of essential MDAs, all government facilities to be prepaid metered.

Source: SREP Investment Plan, 2015

(j) Biogas

The implementation of this mitigation action involves the construction of biogas plants in institutions such as schools, hospitals, households, among others. Implementation of this action is in line with the Renewable Energy Law and other energy strategies and in addition to reducing CO2 has several sustainable development benefits including reducing demand for biomass and LPG and consequently reducing expenditure on energy. The measure will also increase incomes through reduction in expenditure on fuels, create jobs, improve disposal of liquid waste, among others. Major barriers confronting the development of the mitigation action include lack of access to finance, limited local professional artisans to undertake the development of the technology, high upfront cost, non-existing public tax incentives, lack of standardization of the technology and the certification of firms to undertake installation to ensure efficient monitoring. Solving these challenges will require the development of innovative financing for the installation of biogas plants, provision of incentives to encourage usage, development of technology standards and certification of firms as well as the provision of technical assistance in the development of local capacity in the provision of the technology. Already, the Energy Foundation and Ghana Standards Board have initiated a process to develop energy efficiency labels and standards for biogas power plants.

(k) Waste

The implementation of the mitigation actions in waste management has the potential to reduce abatement by about 0.4MtCO2e/year up to 2030. The actions are also supported by national policies such as the National Environmental Sanitation Policy and the Renewable Energy Act. The sustainable development benefits associated with this mitigation action is enormous and includes but not limited to reducing the incidence of fire at landfills sites, generation of additional energy, improving sanitation in towns and cities which has significant health benefits. The barriers associated with the implementation of this mitigation include the high upfront transaction cost of establishing landfills since many communities are not comfortable with the establishment of landfills in their communities, the lack of regulations that makes the establishment of landfills mandatory, inefficient pricing of waste, poor waste collection and dumping.

2.6 Monitoring and Evaluation There exists a national structure for the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of development activities which the LCDS will make use of in order to improve synergies and to reduce duplication of efforts. Also, the incorporation of the LCDS Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) framework into the national monitoring and evaluation framework will not require the promulgation of new laws for the monitoring of the framework as well as additional cost in its implementation. The MRV framework of the LCDS aims at ensuring that the sectoral and the national development M&E system is able to monitor:

GHG emissions or reduction attributed to a particular mitigation action (policy, program,

measure or project;

Climate-related support provided by Government of Ghana or received from donors or the market in the form of finance, technology transfer and capacity to enable implementation of a certain action or as a result of an action taken in a particular sector of the economy and

Sustainable development benefits of mitigation actions. Figure 23 show the monitoring framework of the LCDS. A particular mitigation action at the project level will feed into the program level which will ultimately feed into the national monitoring process and reported through the Bi-annual Update Report (BUR) and GHG Inventory Reports, and submitted to the UNFCCC. Verification of the action at the project and Program level will enable the review of the report before publication. Feedback from implementation will also be used to revise the methodology and the overall monitoring framework.

Monitor(Mitigation actions, GHG and Support

ReviewICA Process

Report(BUR, GHG Inventory

(Re) Plan

Preparation of GHG Inventory

& BUR

Submission to UNFCCC

Records of facilitative exchange of views

New data from APRs,

SurveysData Networks

Development Policies M &E

RegistryFeedback

Verification of mitigation actions before publish on domestic registry

Sector Level

Project M &E & Facility level

Programmes

Project scale

National Level

Figure 23: Elements of LCDS Monitoring Framework

Already steps are being taken to develop the domestic MRV system. The domestic MRV system that is being developed for climate change has different hardware and software elements which will together work as one functional unit. The arrangements of the functional units of the MRV configuration is

shown in figure 24. The design and operationalization of the system is expected to be rolled out in four stages from 2015 to 2020. The phased out program is sequenced as follows: (a) Planning and design;

(b) Integration; (c) Piloting and testing and (d) Functional deployment.

Data

IT systemInstitutions

Management

Continuous training

Data collection and data exchanging protocol

Roles and Responsbilities

National APRs

Sector APRs

Data sharing network

Surveys

Facility reports

APRs Indicators Online climate database

GHG Emission database

Mitigation Action Registry

“Support” Registry

Data Process and

Review

Operations and maintenance rules

Hardware

Software

Figure 24: Operational Architecture of LCDS MRV Framework

At the planning stage, the roles and responsibilities of all institutions in the national MRV framework will be identified paying more attention to the monitoring of the LCDS through consultation with all stakeholders. The inventory of existing MRV data generation points will be set into a network of data sharing web via the central climate data hub. The network will be deployed as an MRV prototype by 2015 (see figure 25)

1. Planning &Staging

2. Integration 3. Pilot and Test 4. Deployment

De

cem

ber, 1

5 Install IT Infrastrucuture

Set up data collection and sharing network

Consultation and Institutional structure

Develop protocols for data generation and sharing

Develop and test facility level reporting templates

Identify and integrate mitigation and co-benefits indicators in APRs D

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18

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Make necessary changes in MRV setup and operations

Collect feedback from users and data providers

Pilot MRV setup in selected institutions

Publish data from MRV system

Open Registry to public

Deploy MRV to all institutions D

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20

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Continuous training

System audit and upgrade

5.First Upgrade

Launch MRV PrototypeHands on training for data providers and network owners

Figure 25: Timelines for rolling out MRV system

The MRV setup of the LCDS will be integrated into existing national M&E framework at the national, sectoral and where possible, at the district levels. As part of the integration process, indicators for mitigation actions, support, effects and co-benefits for key policies and measures will be developed and included in the national M&E framework. The MRV framework will track the implementation of national and sector policies and programs and reported annually in the Annual Progress Report (APR)

produced by the NDPC. The APR is a monitoring and evaluation tool for tracking the implementation of development policies in all sectors. It has a national coverage, monitors policy implementation using simple indicators in all sectors and above all, harmonizes sector specific monitoring indicators into national indicators. Individual sectors initially prepare their sector monitoring and evaluation report with vivid indicators out of which the NDPC prepares the APR.

The APR will therefore be the main MRV framework for the LCDS. Within the framework, the Ministry of Finance will continue its annual survey of climate finance inflows and domestic contributions through the national budget. Existing annual reports submitted by industries to regulatory bodies such as EPA, Energy Commission, Forestry Commission will be used to monitor facility level reporting. Other M&E templates will be developed and incorporated into the existing reporting template for industries. Regular hands on training will be organized for data providers and data network owners. By 2020 the full functional integrated MRV system for the LCDS will become operational after initial sector piloting and testing. The setup will be piloted in the Forestry and Energy Sectors. Feedback from the pilots will be used to update the MRV system before full deployment begins by December 2020. Regular biennial system-wide audit and stakeholder consultations will be performed to identify areas of improvement.

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29 Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources (2012): Ghana Forest Investment Programme, Accra, Ghana, April 2012.

30 McSweeney, C.F., Jones, R.G. and Booth, B. B. B. (2012): Selecting Ensemble Members to Provide Regional Climate Change Information. Journal of Climate, 25, 7100-7121.

31 Stern, Nicholas H. (2007): “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”, Cambridge University Press.

32 Saaty T. L., (1980) The analytic hierarchy process. New York: McGraw-Hill; 33 UNFCCC, (2005): Caring for Climate A guide to the Climate Change Convention and the

Kyoto Protocol 34 Twerefou, D. K., Chinowsky, P., Adjei-Mantey, K. and Strzepek, N. L. (2015a): The

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Road Infrastructure in Ghana. Sustainability 7:11949-11966.

35 Twerefou, D. K., Appiah-Konadu P., Anaman, K. A. (2015b): The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Environment: Evidence from Ghana. Ghana Social Science Journal, 12 (1): 1-21.

36 UNECA (2013): Report On Sustainable Development Goals For The West Africa Sub Region, UNECA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Appendix 1: Financial flows in detail for the period 2011-2014 Description Climate relevance Type of Means of

Implementation (MoI)

Recipient Start Date End Date Institution (Country) Implementing Agency

Amount (US$) Type Status

Ghana Energy Development and Access Project GEDAP (formerly) Development of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Mitigation Electricity Company of Ghana

2007 2017 Switzerland WB 11,000,000 Grant Active

Natural Resource and Environmental Governance Program (NREG)

Mitigation MoI Finance Ministry of Finance

2008 2012 Dutch Embassy, Netherlands

28,739,000 Grant Complete

2008 2012 DFID, United Kingdom


Ghana Natural Resource and Environmental Governance – DPO

2010 2011 Dutch Embassy, Netherlands


Non-legally Binding Instruments on all types of forest in Ghana (UNFF/NLBI)

Mitigation Forestry Commission

2008 2011 BMZ, Germany GIZ 400,000 Grant Pipeline

Forest Preservation Programme Mitigation MoI Technical Assistance

Forestry Commission

2012 2014 Japan JICA 8,500,000 Grant Complete

Ghana Climate Innovation Centre (GCIC) Sustainable Dev. MoI

Finance Ashesi Uni., SNV, EY, UNU-INRA

2014 2019 DANIDA, Denmark WB 17,206,500 Grant Active

Millennium Development Challenge Account Compact 2 – Ghana Power Pact

Mitigation E Electricity Company of Ghana

2014 2019 United States MiDA 498,200,000 Grant Active

Innovative Insurance Products for Adaptation to Climate Change (IIPAC)

Adaptation Ghana Insurance Association

2009 2014 Germany GIZ 2,925,878 Grant Complete

Climate Change Adaptation in Northern Ghana

Adaptation Water Resources Commission

2009 2012 Denmark DANIDA 884,000 Grant Complete

Ghana Climate Change and Environmental Governance

Mitigation MoI Technical Assistance

MESTI 2012 2013 DFID, United Kingdom

DFID 362,246 Grant Complete

Coastal Sustainable Landscapes Project Mitigation USDA/USAID 2013 2016 United States USAID 3,500,000 Grant Active

Does shifting Carbon Use Efficiency determine the growth rates of intact and disturbed tropical forests? Gathering new evidence from African forests

Mitigation MoI Finance CSIR-FORIG 2011 2014 Natural Environment Research Council, United Kingdom

177,478 Grant Complete

PEER Science Project Adaptation MoI Capacity Building UFCCC 2012 2014 USAID, United States USAID 41,000 Grant Complete

Adaptation of Agro-Ecological Systems to Climate Change

Adaptation MoFA 2012 2017 BMU, Germany GIZ 3,901,170 Grant Active

Mapping forest landscape restoration in Ghana

Mitigation MoI Finance IUCN-Ghana 2010 2012 Germany GIZ 110,533 Grant Complete

pro poor REDD+ initiative in Ghana Mitigation MoI Finance IUCN-Ghana 2009 2012 Denmark DANIDA 570,871 Grant Complete

Scaling up voices for influencing post-2012 climate regime

Mitigation MoI Finance IUCN-Ghana 2010 2011 Norway NORAD 75,000 Grant Complete

Energy, Poverty and Gender in Agro Processing (EPGAP)

Mitigation SNV 2014 2015 Netherlands SNV 600,000 Grant Active

Developing Sustainable Energy Value Chains in Fish Smoking Markets in Ghana

Mitigation SNV 2014 2015 Netherlands SNV 650,000 Grant Active

Integrated Clean Cook stoves and Biomass Fuel Market Assessment Project

Mitigation SNV 2014 2015 Netherlands Sustainable Energy Solutions for Africa

180,000 Grant Active

Solar Lantern Saving scheme for Ghana Mitigation SNV 2014 2015 Netherlands Sustainable Energy Solutions for Africa

180,000 Grant Active

Switching from Fuel wood to LPG Mitigation SNV 2013 2013 Netherlands SNV 150,000 Grant Complete

Energy, Poverty and Gender (EnPoGen) Mitigation SNV 2013 2013 Netherlands SNV 150,000 Grant Complete

Renewable Energy Capacity Building Mitigation MoI Finance SNV 2013 2013 Netherlands SNV 150,000 Grant Complete

Facilitating countries and communities in the design of pro-poor REDD+ Benefit Sharing Schemes

Mitigation MoI Finance IUCN-Ghana 2013 2015 Germany 795,839 Grant Active

Towards Pro-Poor REDD+ Initiative in Ghana II

Mitigation MoI Finance IUCN-Ghana 2014 2017 Denmark 636,088 Grant Active

Advancing REDD+: mobilizing private investment for community-based, carbon-intensive landscape restoration

Mitigation MoI Finance IUCN-Ghana 2013 2015 Norway 658,949 Grant Active

Green Facility Mitigation MoI Finance MESTI 2011 2014 Denmark UNEP DTU Partnership

96000 Grant Complete

Description Climate relevance Type of Means of

Implementation (MoI)

Recipient Start Date End Date Donor Institution Implementing Agency

Amount Type Status



2007 2017 IDA WB 100,000,000 Loan Active

2007 2017 Africa Catalytic Growth Fund

50,000,000 Loan Active

2007 2017 AFDB AFDB 18,250,000 Loan Active

2007 2017 Global Partnership on output based aid

WB 6,250,000 Loan Active

Solar PV Systems to Increase Access to Electricity Services in Ghana

Mitigation Ministry of Power

2008 2011 Global Partnership on output based aid


Ghana Urban Transport Mitigation Ministry of Transport

2005 2015 FDA 20,000,000 Grant Active

2005 2015 IDA 45,000,000 Loan Active

Natural Resource and Environmental Governance Program (NREG)

Mitigation MoI Finance Ministry of Finance

2008 2012 FDA 4,100,000 Grant Complete

2008 2012 EU EU 5,474,000 Grant Complete

2008 2012 IDA WB 40,000,000 Grant Complete

2010 EU Unknown Grant Complete

2010 FDA WB 1,590,000 Loan Complete

2010 IDA 10,000,000 Grant Complete

Chainsaw Milling Project Mitigation FC 2007 2012 EU EU 2,860,858 Grant Complete

Forest Investment Program Mitigation MLNR 2015 2020 Strategic Climate Fund

WB 29,500,000 Grant Active

2015 2020 Strategic Climate Fund and Africa Development Fund

AFDB 15,000,000 Grant Active

2015 2020 Strategic Climate Fund

IFC 10,000,000 Loan Active

REDD+ R-PP Implementation Mitigation MoI Finance FC 2010 2013 Word Bank, FCPF WB 3,400,000 Grant Active

FCPF REDD+ Readiness Additional financing

Mitigation MoI Finance FC 2015 2017 Word Bank, FCPF 5,200,000 Grant Pipeline

Low Emission Capacity Building Project Mitigation MoI Finance MESTI 2012 2016 EC, Germany, Australia

UNDP 888,682 Grant Active

Community Resilience through Early Warning

Adaptation Finance NADMO 2012 2015 Norway 5,200,000 Grant Active

Africa Adaptation Program Adaptation Finance EPA 2010 2013 Japan UNDP 2,760,657 Grant Active

Integrating Green Economy into Ghana's Medium-Term Development Plan

Sustainable Dev. Finance MESTI 2014 2015 Netherlands 50,000 Grant Active

China-Ghana South-South Cooperation on Renewable Energy Technology Transfer

Mitigation MoI Technology Transfer

Energy Commission

2015 2018 Denmark 2,720,000 Grant Active

Institutional Support to the Implementation of the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) Action Plan

Mitigation Finance Energy Commission

2013 2015 UNDP 527,000 Grant Active

Support for Development and Operation of COCOBOD’s Ghana Cocoa Platform

Sustainable Dev. MoI

Finance Cocoa Board 2013 2015 UNDP/UN-REDD and Mondelēz Cocoa Life.

1,200,000 Grant Active

Facilitating Implementation & Readiness For Mitigation

Mitigation MoI Finance MESTI 2013 2015 Denmark UNEP/DTU 300,000 Grant Active

Ghana Cocoa REDD+ Program Mitigation Ghana Cocoa Board and Forestry Commission

2015 2016-2020, 2020-2036

World Bank WB 58,750,000 Result Based

Payment

Active

Green Climate Fund Readiness Program Sustainable Dev. MoI

Finance MESTI 2015 2016 Government of Germany

UNDP/UNEP/WRI

853,345 Grant Pipeline

Natural Resource and Environmental Governance Program Technical Assistance

Mitigation MoI Technical Assistance

Ministry of Finance

2014 2016 World Bank WB 5,000,000 Grant Active

CARE Adaptation learning Program for Africa

Adaptation Care International

2010 2014 DFID, DANIDA, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Finland,

DFID 7,930,214 Grant Complete

URAdapt: Managing water in the urban-rural interface for climate change resilient cities

Adaptation IWMI 2009 2012 International Development Research Centre of Canada, DFID

480,000 Grant Complete

CLIMAFRICA Project Adaptation MoI Capacity Building

CSIR, CRI, SRI &FORIG for Ghana

2010 2014 European Union EU 78,023 Grant Complete

Advancing REDD+ in Ghana: Preparation of REDD Pilot schemes in Off-Reserve Forests and Agro-Forests

Mitigation MoI Finance FORIG 2013 2014 ITTO ITTO 366,954 Grant Complete

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation through Collaborative Management with Local Communities

Mitigation Finance FORIG 2010 2014 ITTO 760,408 Grant Complete

Capacity building for CDM forestry in the framework of SFM emphasizing community forests and poverty alleviation in Ghana

Mitigation MoI Finance FORIG 2011 2014 ITTO ITTO 644,382 Grant Complete

Resilient Landscapes for Sustainable Livelihoods

Adaptation MoFA, UNU-INRA, UNDP, WFP, FAO

2013 2016 FAO & UNDP UNDP 3,362,000 Grant Pipeline

REDD through stakeholder engagement Mitigation CSIR-FORIG 2009 2012 ITTO ITTO 658,716 Grant Active

Increased Resilience to Climate Change in Northern Ghana Through the Management Of Water Resources and Diversification of Livelihoods”

Adaptation MESTI 2015 2019 Adaptation Fund Board

UNDP 8,293,972 Grant Pipeline

Promoting of Appliance Energy Efficiency and Transformation of the Refrigerating Appliances Market in Ghana

Mitigation Energy Commission

2011 2013 UNDP UNDP 5,672,727 Grant Active



2007 2017 WB WB 6,500,000 Grant Active

Ghana Urban Transport Mitigation Ministry of Transport

2005 2015 WB WB 7,000,000 Grant Active

Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) update

Adaptation MoI Finance EPA 2012 2013 UNEP/DTU UNEP/DTU 70,000 Grant Complete

Third National Communication to UNFCCC

Enabling Activities Finance Environmental Protection Agency

2011 2014 UNEP UNEP 500,000 Grant Active

Biennial Update Report to UNFCCC Enabling Activities Finance 2013 2014 UNEP UNEP 352,000 Grant Active

Climate Change and Health Project Adaptation Ministry of Health

2010 2013 UNDP UNDP 1,918,182 Grant Complete

Sustainable Land and Water Management Project

Mitigation MESTI 2011 2018 WB WB 13,250,000 Grant Active

Promoting value chain approach to climate change adaptation in Ghana

Adaptation Ministry of Food and Agriculture

2012 2015 IFAD IFAD 2,500,000 Grant Active

Appendix 2: Membership of Mitigation Assessment Working Group

Name Institution Email Sector

Mr. Robert Bamfo Forestry Commission

[email protected] Agriculture and Forestry

Mr. Edward Awafo Energy Centre, KNUST

[email protected] Energy/transport/industry

Ms. Paula Edze KITE [email protected] Energy/transport/industry

Dr. Winston Asante KNUST Winston_asante @yahoo.com Agriculture and Forestry

Nicholas Breslyn Rainforest Alliance [email protected] Agriculture and Forestry

Kwabena Asubonteng

UNU-INRA Asubonteng @unu.edu Agriculture and Forestry

Mawunyo Dzobo Energy Commission [email protected] Energy/transport/industry

William Hayford-Acquah EPA Email:[email protected] Tel: 024-463-3684

Solid Waste

Joy Hesse Ankoma EPA [email protected]. Solid waste

Daniel Lamptey EPA [email protected] Solid waste

Julianna Boateng EPA [email protected] Solid waste

Mr. Daniel Essel Ministry of Transport

[email protected] Energy/transport/industry

Mr. Kingsley Amoako Crop Services Dir. MoFA

[email protected] Agriculture and forestry

Dr. Joseph Essandoh Energy Commission [email protected] Energy/transport

Mrs. Esi Nana MID, EPA [email protected] Industry

Mr. Joseph Baffoe EPA [email protected] Industry

Peter Dery MESTI [email protected] CDM/DNA

Dr. Daniel Twerefou University of Ghana [email protected] Cross cutting

Daniel Benefor EPA [email protected] Cross cutting

K.Y Oppong-Boadi EPA [email protected] Cross cutting

Kennedy Amankwah Energy Commission [email protected] Energy/transport/industry

Mr. Philip Acquah Freelance [email protected] Solid Waste













Appendix 3: Terms of Reference of Mitigation Assessment Working Group

Terms of Reference for CWG on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Modeling and Mitigation Assessment (CWG-EMMIA) Overall Context As a party to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Ghana is obliged under articles 4 and 12 of the UNFCCC to regularly prepare, update and submit its national communications to the Conference of Parties (COP). Ghana submitted its First and Second National Communication in 2000 and 2011 respectively to the UNFCCC. To ensure continuity in the reporting as well as strengthen Ghana’s ability to meet its obligation under the UNFCCC, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has received financial support from GEF-UNEP to undertake the preparation of Ghana’s Third National Communication (NC3). The preparation of the NC3 commenced with the national launching in May 2012, and is expected to be completed in 2014. According to the institutional arrangement of the NC3 project, three (3) operational entities such as Project Advisory Committee (PAC), Project Steering Committee (PSC) and Country Working Group (CWGs) must be formed to facilitate its successful implementation. Structure of the CWG The CWG will be responsible for the planning, implementation and reporting of the activities of the CWG. The membership of the CWG will be drawn from relevant private, public institutions and national consultants and will be constituted into six (6) teams. The membership of the six (6) CWGs will be formed on the basis of competence, experience and relevance. The CWG will be co-led by two competence institutions (Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Commission) and would have clear operation mandate, roles and reporting lines. The CWGs will meet regularly, at least twice in a quarter, bearing in mind, the timelines of the overall work program of the project. The following institutions will form the CWG on Greenhouse Gas Emission Modelling and Mitigation Assessment (CWG-EMMIA): Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); Energy Commission (EC); Forestry Commission (FC); Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA- Crop Services Directorate); CDM/DNA, MESTI, Economics Department. University of Ghana, Legon, Ministry of Transport (MoT), Energy Centre, KNUST, Civil Engineering Dept. (Sanitation Unit), KNUST and KITE. The CWG-EMMIA will be responsible for designing, planning and executing activities of the Emission Modelling and Mitigation Assessment in accordance with international guidelines and bearing in mind, its relevance to the national development processes. Functions of the CWG-EMMIA: The following will be the main functions of the CWG-EMMIA. Any other duties of the CWG-EMMIA will also include those that may be discussed and agreed upon during its maiden meeting. The CWG-EMMIA will:

Supervise/monitor/ and provide feedback to national consultants and experts who will be recruited to provide technical assistance or undertake specific assignments relating to conducting Emission Modeling and Mitigation Assessment.

Liaise with the relevant ministries, national and international research institutes, NGOs, and other relevant institutions in order to involve their staff, national experts, consultants in project activities, and to gather and disseminate information relevant to Ghana’s mitigation assessment.

Contribute to the development and finalization of the scope of the work and TORs of the CWG-EMMIA required to identify and facilitate recruitment of national/international experts and consultants.

Help to summarise and synthesize the results of the CWG-EMMIA for incorporation into the NC3 Report.

Compile the scope and content of the relevant sections in consultation with team members of the CWG-EMMIA.

Provide overall supervision and ensure the timely implementation of the project relevant activities on EMMIA as scheduled in the detailed work plan.

Review and make necessary comments for the all draft documents prepared by consultants and national experts.

Contribute to strengthening and mainstreaming of the national system for producing the EMMIA.

Appendix 4: Underlying Assumptions for Marginal Cost Curves

Assumptions

Item Assumption Source

Discount rate 20.2% Bank of Ghana’s policy rate.

Global Warming Potential (GWPs)

CH4 = 21 tons CO2, and N2O = 310 tons CO2 IPCC, TAR

Baseline electricity mix (2010)

Coal = 0% Hydro = 56% Oil (light crude and diesel) = 36% Gas = 8% RE = 0%

Energy Statistics

Mitigation electricity mix (2030)

Coal = 39% Hydro = 13% Oil (diesel) = 1% Gas = 47% RE = 0.1%

Based on LEAP projections

Emissions Factors

Emission factors (kg/GJ) CO2 CH4 N2O Price (USD/GJ)

Fuel oil 77.4 0.0020 0.0006 6.0

Diesel oil 74.1 0.0020 0.0006 4.7

Gasoline 69.3 0.0200 0.0006 4.9

Kerosene 71.9 0.0070 0.0006 4.7

Charcoal 80.0 0.0010 0.0006 2.5

Firewood (Unsustainably Grown) 110.0 0.0040 0.0001 1.0

Biodiesel - 0.0040 0.0001 6.1

LPG 63.1 0.0010 0.0006 5.5

Natural gas 56.9 0.0040 0.0001 8.0

Coal 94.6 0.0010 0.0014 1.0

Biogas - - - 3.5

Electricity 77.4 0.0020 0.0006 25.0

Hydro/Renewables - - - -

Appendix 5: Underlying Assumptions for Marginal Cost Curves

Branch 2010 25value

Expression Scale Unit

Population 1 Growth (2.251%) Percent growth

Biofuel 0 Interp (2010,0; 2015,5.589; 2025,15.98; 2030,20;2030,25)

fraction

Cartobus 0 Interp (2010,0; 2015,6.683; 2020,30.3; 2025,44.69;2030,50;2030,55)

Percent percent

Hhff 1 Growth (2%) Fraction

Manufacturing growth 1 Growth As (GDP,1) Index

GDP 1 Growth (5.565%) Index

Savannah electrified 28.9 Interp (2030,70) percent Percent

Forest electrified 45.8 Interp (2030,80) percent Percent

Coastal Electrified 31.1 Interp (2030,60.2) percent Percent

Savannah Fridges 7 Interp (2030,15) percent Percent

Forest Fridges 15 Interp (2030,56.8) percent Percent

Coastal Fridges 15 Interp (2030,43) percent Percent

LPG available other unb 23.1 Interp(2030,54) Fraction

Number of Urban Households 3.15 Demand/Household (million household)*Demand/Household/Urban (% share/100)

million Household

Eci 0.1 1 Fraction

Cpr 0 0 Fraction

Eef 1 1-eci (fraction)*cpr(fraction) Fraction

Per capita GDP 1304 Intern (2030,3397.5) Dollar

Appendix 6: Projected and Sustainable Extraction Rate For Baseline And Mitigation Scenarios Projected Extraction rate Sustainable Extraction rate

Ag. Waste

Fuel Wood

Industrial Wood

Agric. Product

Livestock Ag. Waste

Fuel Wood

Industrial Wood

Agric. Product

Livestock

Baseline

OFL 0 0.05 0.35 0 0 0 0.03 0.28 0 0

GL 0 0 0 0 1.3 0 0 0 0 2

ACL 3.4 0 0 5.75 0 4 0 0 7 0

Mitigation

OFL 0 0.02 0.25 0 0 0 0.02 0.25 0 0

GL 0 0 0 0 2.5 0 0 0 0 2.5

ACL 4.5 0 0 7.5 0 4.5 0 0 7.5 0

Appendix 7: Data Used in Projecting Demand for AFOLU Mitigation

Parameters 2010 2030

Population Growth Rate 2.4% 2.3%

Rural Population Growth Rate 0.9% 0.7%

GDP Growth Rate 8.0% 9.0%

Agricultural Value Added Growth Rate 5.3% 3.5%

Industrial Value Added Growth Rate 6.9% 15.0%

Appendix 8: Waste GHG Emissions by Technology

Appendix 10 Results absolute costs for the calculated scenario Baseline Mit Option 1 Mit Option 2 Mit option 3 Euro/yr Euro/yr Euro/yr Euro/yr Recycled dry waste 5,221 474,678 712,017 949,356 Composted organic waste 7,257,828 34,651,503 69,303,006 86,628,757 Digested organic waste 0 0 0 0 Residual waste to controlled dump/landfill without gas collection 46,737,852 39,206,099 30,325,642 23,778,407 Residual waste to sanitary landfill with gas collection 0 21,811,460 43,764,848 62,014,086 Residual waste to MSWI 7,361,212 64,780,035 107,913,324 140,387,715 Total 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321 Appendix 11 Mitigation costs per tonne of GHG emissions for the calculated scenario compared to Baseline (BSL) Baseline Mit Option 1 Mit Option 2 Mit option 3 Total GHG emissions in t CO2-eq/yr 17,173,622 15,542,903 12,289,632 10,103,598 Total costs in euro/yr 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321 Difference GHG compared to SQ what is SQ in t CO2-eq/yr 0 -1,630,719 -4,883,990 -7,070,024 Difference costs compared to SQ in euro/yr 0 99,561,661 190,656,723 252,396,208 If the difference in costs is < 0 and/or the difference in GHG emissions is > 0 no mitigation costs can be calculated, the result is "0" Mitigation costs in euro/t CO2-eq - 61 39 36 Appendix 10 Results absolute costs for the calculated scenario Baseline Mit Option 1 Mit Option 2 Mit option 3 Euro/yr Euro/yr Euro/yr Euro/yr Recycled dry waste 5,221 474,678 712,017 949,356 Composted organic waste 7,257,828 34,651,503 69,303,006 86,628,757 Digested organic waste 0 0 0 0 Residual waste to controlled dump/landfill without gas collection 46,737,852 39,206,099 30,325,642 23,778,407 Residual waste to sanitary landfill with gas collection 0 21,811,460 43,764,848 62,014,086 Residual waste to MSWI 7,361,212 64,780,035 107,913,324 140,387,715 Total 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321 Appendix 11 Mitigation costs per tonne of GHG emissions for the calculated scenario compared to Baseline (BSL) Baseline Mit Option 1 Mit Option 2 Mit option 3

Total GHG emissions in t CO2-eq/yr 17,173,622 15,542,903 12,289,632 10,103,598 Total costs in euro/yr 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321 Difference GHG compared to SQ what is SQ in t CO2-eq/yr 0 -1,630,719 -4,883,990 -7,070,024

Difference costs compared to SQ in euro/yr 0 99,561,661 190,656,723 252,396,208 If the difference in costs is < 0 and/or the difference in GHG emissions is > 0 no mitigation costs can be calculated, the result is "0" Mitigation costs in euro/t CO2-eq - 61 39 36

Appendix 10 Results absolute costs for the calculated scenario


Euro/yr Euro/yr Euro/yr Euro/yr

Recycled dry waste 5,221 474,678 712,017 949,356

Composted organic waste 7,257,828 34,651,503 69,303,006 86,628,757

Digested organic waste 0 0 0 0

Residual waste to controlled dump/landfill without gas

collection 46,737,852 39,206,099 30,325,642 23,778,407

Residual waste to sanitary landfill with gas collection 0 21,811,460 43,764,848 62,014,086

Residual waste to MSWI 7,361,212 64,780,035 107,913,324 140,387,715

Total 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321

Appendix 11 Mitigation costs per tonne of GHG emissions for the calculated scenario compared to Baseline

(BSL)

Baseline Mit Option

1

Mit Option 2 Mit option 3

Total GHG emissions in t CO2-eq/yr 17,173,622 15,542,903 12,289,632 10,103,598

Total costs in euro/yr 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321

Difference GHG compared to SQ what is SQ in t CO2-eq/yr

0 -1,630,719 -4,883,990 -7,070,024

Difference costs compared to SQ in euro/yr 0 99,561,661 190,656,723 252,396,208

If the difference in costs is < 0 and/or the difference in GHG emissions is > 0 no mitigation costs can be calculated,

the result is "0"

Mitigation costs in euro/t CO2-eq - 61 39 36








collection 46,737,852 39,206,099 30,325,642 23,778,407



Total 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321


(BSL)

Baseline Mit Option

1





0 -1,630,719 -4,883,990 -7,070,024



the result is "0"


Appendix 10 Results absolute costs for the calculated scenario Baseline Mit Option 1 Mit Option 2 Mit option 3 Euro/yr Euro/yr Euro/yr Euro/yr Recycled dry waste 5,221 474,678 712,017 949,356 Composted organic waste 7,257,828 34,651,503 69,303,006 86,628,757 Digested organic waste 0 0 0 0 Residual waste to controlled dump/landfill without gas collection 46,737,852 39,206,099 30,325,642 23,778,407 Residual waste to sanitary landfill with gas collection 0 21,811,460 43,764,848 62,014,086 Residual waste to MSWI 7,361,212 64,780,035 107,913,324 140,387,715 Total 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321 Appendix 11 Mitigation costs per tonne of GHG emissions for the calculated scenario compared to Baseline (BSL) Baseline Mit Option 1 Mit Option 2 Mit option 3

Total GHG emissions in t CO2-eq/yr 17,173,622 15,542,903 12,289,632 10,103,598 Total costs in euro/yr 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321 Difference GHG compared to SQ what is SQ in t CO2-eq/yr 0 -1,630,719 -4,883,990 -7,070,024

Difference costs compared to SQ in euro/yr 0 99,561,661 190,656,723 252,396,208 If the difference in costs is < 0 and/or the difference in GHG emissions is > 0 no mitigation costs can be calculated, the result is "0" Mitigation costs in euro/t CO2-eq - 61 39 36








collection 46,737,852 39,206,099 30,325,642 23,778,407



Total 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321


(BSL)

Baseline Mit Option

1





0 -1,630,719 -4,883,990 -7,070,024



the result is "0"


-2 000 000

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

16 000 000

18 000 000

20 000 000

Debits Credits Debits Credits Debits Credits Net

Recycled waste Disposed of waste Total MSW treatment

ton

ne

CO

2-e

q/y

r

GHG emissions

BaselineAppendix 10 Results absolute costs for the calculated scenario







collection 46,737,852 39,206,099 30,325,642 23,778,407



Total 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321


(BSL)

Baseline Mit Option

1





0 -1,630,719 -4,883,990 -7,070,024



the result is "0"


Mit Option 1

Mit Option 2

Mit option 3

Appendix 9: Absolute technology Cost in the Waste Sector






Residual waste to controlled dump/landfill without gas collection

46,737,852 39,206,099 30,325,642 23,778,407

Residual waste to sanitary landfill with gas collection

0 21,811,460 43,764,848 62,014,086

Residual waste to MSW 7,361,212 64,780,035 107,913,324 140,387,715

Total 61,362,114 160,923,774 252,018,837 313,758,321

Appendix 10: Mitigation costs per ton of GHG emissions for the calculated scenario compared to Baseline (BSL)





0 -1,630,719 -4,883,990 -7,070,024

Difference costs compared to SQ in euro/yr

0 99,561,661 190,656,723 252,396,208

If the difference in costs is < 0 and/or the difference in GHG emissions is > 0 no mitigation costs can be calculated, the result is "0"


Appendix 11: Raw Score Results of Ranking of Barriers

Criteria (0 -less important, 10-most important )/barrier

Criteria Weight

Technology

Economic and Financial

Institutional

Behavioral barrier

Information and awareness

Capacity

Barrier Intensity 20 9 8 9 7 7 9

Ease of removing barrier 20 7 10 10 10 7 8

Impact of barrier removal on strategy

40 8 9 7 6 7 9

Impact of barrier removal on the economy

20 8 9 8 6 6 8

Total 100 32 36 34 29 27 34

Appendix 12: Raw Score Results of Ranking of Barriers

Criteria /barrier Technology Economic and Financial

Institutional Behavioral Information and awareness

Capacity

Barrier Intensity 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.8

Ease of removing barrier 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.6

Impact of barrier removal on strategy

3.2 3.6 2.8 2.4 2.8 3.6

Impact of barrier removal on the economy

1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.6

8.0 9.0 8.2 7.0 6.8 8.6

Appendix 13: List of Participants during the validation workshop

S/N NAME ORGANIZATION PHONE NUMBER

E-MAIL

1 Benjamin Arthur C 0206527445 [email protected]

2 John Adraki AGI 0243582813 [email protected]

3 John Afari Idan BTAL 0244461959 [email protected]

4 Dr. Albert Ahenkan UoG 0246955818 [email protected]

5 Kwame Iddrisu UoG 0244661997 [email protected]

6 Kwame Adjei - Mantey UoG 0242908739 [email protected]

7 Peter Aning STI 0244285001 [email protected]

8 Dr. Daniel K. Twerefou UoG 0244603676 [email protected]

9 Kingsley K. Amoako MoFA 0244599596 [email protected]

10 Patrick Kwakye FC 0249449984 [email protected]

11 Charles K. A. Aboagye PEEF 0545504026 [email protected]

12 Nicholas Manu CookClean Ltd 0545213073 [email protected]

13 Gifty Tettey MoP 0262609640 [email protected]

14 Jane Mensah – Onumah MOTI 0244174181 [email protected]

15 E. A. Gbadogo MoH 0248530330 [email protected]

16 Ankrah Nii Ayi MESTI 0544853647 [email protected]

17 Adjei K. Thomas PEF 0501374744 [email protected]

18 Wisdom Adongo PEF 0247948150 [email protected]

19 Herve Delsol EU Delegation 0544703201 [email protected]

20 Dr.F. B. Agyenim GTUC 0202698369 [email protected]

21 Peter A. Adagwine MESTI 0267546232 [email protected]

22 Freda Atsem MESTI 0243173737 [email protected]

23 Benjamin Jabik UoG 0244220591 [email protected]

24 Mawuli Tse Solar Light 0244353511 [email protected]

25 Dr. Felix Addo-Yobo NDPC 0505093954 [email protected]

26 Raymond Sakyi FC 0201424410 [email protected]

27 Prof. C Gordon IESS-UG 0208117200 [email protected]

28 Dr. Emmanuel Ackom UNEP-DTU +4553660337 [email protected]



























29 Henry Aryeetey Energy Commission

0244895076 [email protected]

30 Bridget Baah MESTI 0244742420 [email protected]

31 Erasmus Osei-Essah CookClean 0244267978 [email protected]

32 Paula Edze Energy Commission


33 Prosper A. Amuquandoh Energy Commission


34 Grace O. Adu MESTI 0244879463 [email protected]

35 Faustina Boakye GeoFaus Consult 0208162111 [email protected]

36 Mike Obeng Konadu GAPTE 0249768645` [email protected]

37 Saadia B. Owusu-Amofah IUCN 0264893004 [email protected]

38 Bernadette A. Adjei WRC 0266003370 [email protected] 39 Nicholas Tengue Solidaridad 0265348195 [email protected]

40 Dr. Eric Twum Inst. Of Green Growth Solution


41 Joshua Awuku Apaw Earth Service 0244797638 [email protected]

42 Daniel Benefor EPA 0246114652 [email protected]

43 Francis D. Ohemeng GIDA 0244264459 [email protected]

44 E. Kojo Ocran GSS 0243053105 [email protected] 45 K Y Oppong-Boadu EPA 0208186958 [email protected]

46 D A Nii-Noi Adumuah CookClean Ltd 0208150702 [email protected]

47 Grace Kwabi MESTI 0249509932 [email protected]

48 Mohammed Alhassan TCPD 0245496917 [email protected]

49 Rahman Ishmael SSDF 0207294852 [email protected]

50 Fredua Agyeman MESTI 0203848078 [email protected]

51 Clement Asiedu CSISM 0201805656 [email protected] 52 Gyimah Mohammed MESTI 0203957436 [email protected]

53 Dr Reginald Quansah UoG 0234404637 [email protected]
























GHANA


Ghana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS)

Documents

Transcript of Ghana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS)