GHANA S 2016 ELECTIONS: PROSPECTS FOR CREDIBILITY AND...

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GHANA’S 2016 ELECTIONS: PROSPECTS FOR CREDIBILITY AND PEACEFULNESS

Evidence from the 2nd CDD-Ghana pre-election survey | October 2016 |

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Context of the October 2016 survey


• Flags/campaign posters/banners and other paraphernalia of the

parties and candidates (dominated by the NDC and NPP) appeared

on walls, trees and electric poles near roadsides throughout the nation.

Large billboards canvassing support for the extension of President

Mahama and ruling party’s mandate (under slogans such as “JDM

TOASO” and “transforming lives) went up.

• The major political parties (particularly the NPP and NDC)

launched their respective campaigns and manifestoes, with

considerable fanfare. The NDC’s manifesto titled “Changing Lives,Transforming Ghana” was launched at a mammoth rally in Sunyani on

September 17; NPP’s manifesto, captioned “An Agenda For Jobs;Creating Opportunities & Prosperity For All”, was launched in Accra on

October 9, 2016.

Issues dominating the news headlines immediately before and during the survey


• Flag bearers of most parties (and their respective running mates, inthe case of the NDC and NPP) embarked on nationwide campaigntours. President Mahama’s campaign visits to the Western, Central,Greater Accra, and Volta regions featured ceremonies to commissionnewly completed public infrastructure or cutting the sword for thecommencement of new projects and donation of cash and other gifts totraditional rulers and the electorate. The NPP’s Akufo Addo emphasized“restoring hope” and creating jobs in his campaign tours in the Western,Northern, Greater Accra, and Ashanti regions.

• The Progressive People’s Party (PPP) and Convention People’sParty (CPP) presidential candidates also intensified theircampaigns, under the slogans, “Apam Foforo” (new covenant) and“awake and vote for change” respectively.

• President Mahama and Akufo Addo’s campaigns featuredparticularistic promises to the regions/districts/communities theyvisited (such as creation of additional administrative regions anddistricts) - reflecting blatant mobilization of ethnic and regional votes inthe 2016 election campaign.



• The inaugural flight of pilgrims from the newly renovated Tamaleairport to this year’s Hajj took place in September. It was loudlytouted as an example of the President and ruling Party’s special carefor that religious community.

• A number of traditional rulers openly and brazenly declared theirsupport for either the presidential candidate of the NDC or NPP –a clear departure from the norm of traditional rulers’ “political neutrality”

• A pro-NDC magazine, Africawatch, alleged that the NPP PresidentialCandidate’s health was failing.

• The EC’s announcement of 50K Cedis (about $13K) as filing feefor the 2016 presidential and parliamentary aspirants was greetedwith loud criticisms, especially by the smaller opposition parties.The Progressive People’s Party initiated a court challenge against theEC’s decision.



• Seventeen presidential candidates filed their nomination with the EC by theclose of the deadline given by the EC. The EC cleared only four of them,provoking vehement accusations of injustice, arbitrariness and unfairnessby the candidates and supporters against the EC in general, and EC Chairin particular. Some of the disqualified candidates including, National DemocraticParty leader and former first lady Konadu Agyeman Rawlings, PPP’s Dr. KwesiNduom, and Dr. Edward Mahama of the People’s National Convention (PNC)vowed to challenge their disqualification in the courts.

• The EC opened the window for voters to transfer their votes from the placeof original registration to the place where they intend to vote on December7. The process was accompanied by high levels of tension, physicalintimidation as well as sporadic violence (typically involving NDC and NPPactivists challenging or seeking to bloc vote transfer efforts of their rivals).

• The EC announced cancellation of its proposals to do electronictransmission of results in the 2016 elections.



• President Mahama controversially remitted the jail sentences the Supreme

Court had imposed on the three panelists (‘Montie 3’) on a pro-NDC radio

station, Montie FM (for criminal contempt) – ostensibly, in response to

petitions and vociferous campaign by prominent government officials and party

executives to apply the presidential pardon.

• Hon John Oti Bless’s nomination for ministerial position by the president

was widely criticized and his confirmation by Parliament delayed following

the revelation that he was implicated in the slandering and threat to inflict

physical harm on the Chief Justice and other perceived anti-NDC Supreme

Court justices.

• Civil society/election watchdog groups flagged abuse of incumbency by the

President and ruling party as well as vote selling by the electorate.

• The public release of findings of CDD-Ghana’s pre-election survey in

August/September generated widespread public discussion and partisan

arguments.



• NPP activists, including some in leadership, continued to talk of

undertaking their own policing of the ballot process on polling day.

• The media reported numerous inter/intra party conflicts, confrontations,

defacement of posters and billboards of rival parties and candidates: alleged

roughing up of NPP “Loyal Ladies” by NDC youth in Suhum (Oct. 12); angry

confrontations between NDC and NPP polling agents over vote transfers in

Tamale reportedly provoking gunshots and suspension of the process (Oct. 6);

inter-party clashes in Zabzugu-Tatale over the transfer of votes (Oct. 4);

deployment of police reinforcement to Ajumako-Besease to quell clashes between

NDC and NPP supporters, among others.

• The Commission on Human Rights and Administrative Justice (CHRAJ)

cleared President Mahama of the allegation of bribe taking (in the case of his

receipt of a Ford Expedition vehicle from a Burkinabe contractor who was

awarded several government construction contracts). CHRAJ also exonerated

him of the allegation of conflict of interest, but said the action contravened the

government’s own gift policy.



• The Bank of Ghana came under sever public criticism for reportedly

spending GHC 2M on gold watches to be given to selected senior

employees as part of end of service benefits, which drew attention to

corruption and self-service in Ghanaian public institutions, and among its officials.

• The Mahama-NDC administration’s record of governance came under the

spotlight of the election campaign following the release in early October of the

2016 Ibrahim Index of African Governance, citing Ghana as one of a dozen

countries that experienced declines in governance over the past decade.

• Media reports of the Inspector General of Police, John Kudalor ordering personnel

of the Motor Traffic and Transport Department (MTTD) to stop the practice of

driver license and other motor-checks on the country’s roads was criticized as a

pro-NDC election ploy (similar to the one issued by the police ahead of the 2012

elections).


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Issues at stake for the electorate in Ghana’s 2016 elections


Policy priorities of electorates | July & October, 2016

Ghanaians consider unemployment as a key challenge that the 2016election campaigns must address.

• Unemployment remains on top of the policy priority of Ghanaians: 27%cited it as first priority and, 16% as the second policy priority; educationcame third (12%).

• Note that electricity, which was second on the list of priorities in theJuly survey dropped off the list in the October survey.

Policy priorities the electorate want the 2016 election campaign to address (%) | July & October, 2016

July, 2016 October, 2016Policy

Priority 1

Policy Priority

2

Policy Priority

3

Policy Priority

1

Policy Priority

2

Policy Priority

3

Unemployment 25 17 9 27 16 10Electricity 15 12 10 -- -- --Management of the economy 11 -- -- 12 -- --Education -- 10 10 11 14 12Infrastructure / roads -- -- -- -- 9 9Q29A. In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing this country that the forthcoming 2016 elections campaign should address? [Accept up to three answers]


Factors voters say would influence their vote choices | July & October, 2016

• On average, solid majorities of Ghanaians claim their vote choices in the2016 polls would be influenced ‘a great deal’ or ‘somewhat’ by a variety ofpolicy and campaign issues ranging from bad roads to nationalembarrassments such as the World Cup scandal, the Independence Daybrochure, and the Ruby cocaine scandal.

Issues likely to influence electorates’ choices at 2016 election (%) | July &

October, 2016Jul., 2016 Oct., 2016 Change

Bad roads 76 69 -7

Perceived government corruption 75 69 -6

Ability to get medical care 72 67 -5

Use of abusive language 71 65 -6

High prices of foodstuffs 72 63 -9

Arrogance/disrespectful posture of politicians 68 63 -5

Perceived ungodliness of candidate 66 61 -5

Perceived aggressiveness of political party 66 61 -5

Power outages 72 60 -12

Perceived abuse of incumbency 63 59 -4

National embarrassments 53 49 -4Q30. Let’s talk about your vote in the 2016 elections. Please tell me whether as a voter, your choice of party and/or candidatewill/will not be influenced by


Q68. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: The 2016 election campaigns of the two main political parties have focused mainly on issues affecting citizens rather than personalities.

• Nearly half of Ghanaians (47%) “strongly agree” or “agree” with the

statement that the campaigns of the NDC and NPP have mainly focused

on issues affecting citizens rather than personalities.

• A sizeable minority (30%) disagree; 14% don’t know.

Opinions on the extent NDC and NPP campaigns are focused on issues citizens| October, 2016

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Perceived preparedness of the electorate and institutions for the elections


Resounding majorities claim awareness and knowledge of theupcoming elections and what it takes to participate in them.

• Specifically, most Ghanaians:

o Claim awareness/knowledge of the location of polling stationswhere they will vote (97%)

o Know they must present an official biometric voter ID card in orderto vote (96%)

o Know they would be voting for MPs and President during theelections (92%)

o Correctly guessed that the elections would be held in December(80%) – a significant jump from 63% to 80% between the Julyand October surveys

Trends: Awareness of the forthcoming national elections | July & October, 2016


Q10. As you may know Ghana will hold elections in 2016. I would like to ask you a few questions about these elections. (a) As far as youknow, in which month will the election be held? (b) To your knowledge, will citizens be casting ballots for members of parliament as wellas the president? (c) To your knowledge, will citizen have to show a biometric voter identification card in order to vote? (d) At this time, doyou possess an official biometric voter identification card? (e) And do you know the location of the polling station where you are registeredto vote?

Trends: Awareness of the forthcoming national elections | July & October, 2016


A near absolute majority of Ghanaians report their preparedness to vote inthe December 7 polls.

• Ninety-six percent of adult Ghanaians say they are registered to vote in the2016 elections (which compares favorably with the July survey findingwhere 93% claimed to have done same).

Registered to vote in the 2016 elections | July & October, 2016

Q35. As you know, Ghana will hold new national elections in 2016. Again, we find that some have not yet registered because they havenot had the time, did not know where to register, or did not have the correct documents. By looking at public records kept by electionofficials, we can get an accurate report of how many people are actually registered. Of course, these public records do not say whichparty you support. Part of our study will involve checking these records against the survey reports. Which of the following statementsbest describes your current status ahead of the 2016 elections?


• More than 8 in 10 adult Ghanaians (83%) declared an intention to vote in the2016 elections (a 7 percentage point increase over the 76% recorded inthe July survey)

Intending to vote in the 2016 elections | July & October, 2016

Q36. How likely are you to vote in the 2016 elections?


Citizen participation in the electoral process | July & October, 2016

A narrow majority of Ghanaians now report closely following thepreparations and campaigns for the upcoming polls.

• A little over half of electorates (52%) report following the 2016 electionpreparations or campaigns ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ closely - a 5 percentage pointincrease over the 47% recorded in July survey.

• A sizeable minority (47%), has not been doing so.

Q11. How closely are you following the preparations or campaign for the 2016 election?


• Only about a fifth of Ghanaians report attending campaign meetings or

rallies of the two major parties: NPP (20%) and NDC (18%).

• Attendance at meetings and rallies of minor political parities is even worse

(under 4%).

Citizen participation in the electoral process | October, 2016

Q34. Have you attended any party meetings or rallies during the campaign for the 2016 elections? If Yes, which parties organized thesemeetings or rallies?


• Only 7% of adult Ghanaians report helping to mobilize funds for a candidateor political party “once/twice,” “several times” or “often” during the past year.

• Indeed, 7 in 10 (69%) says they “would never do this” while 21% say they“would if they had a chance”.

Citizen participation in the electoral process | October, 2016

Q33. Here is a list of actions that people sometimes take as citizens. For each of these, please tell me whether you, personally, have doneany of these things during the past year.


Sources of information on the 2016 elections | October, 2016

• About half (49%) of the Ghanaian electorate claim to obtain most

their information on the 2016 polls from private radio. Private TV

(38%), government radio (37%), and government TV (32%) follow in

that order.

• Sizable proportions of Ghanaians also get their news from ‘informal’

sources: friends/neighbors/co-workers (38%), family members (33%),

political party officials (29%), religious leaders/gatherings (24%) and

community meetings (22%).

• The internet and social media are election news sources,

respectively, for only 14% and 13% of the electorate; private

newspapers for 12% and government newspapers for 11%.



How much information on 2016 elections do citizens obtain fromspecific sources (%) | October, 2016

A lot of

information

A little or no

informationDon’t know

Private radio 49 47 4Private television 38 54 7Friends, neighbours or co-workers 38 60 2Govt. radio 37 57 6Family members 33 66 1Govt. television 32 60 7Political party officials 29 68 3Religious leaders or gatherings 24 73 3Community meetings 22 73 4The Internet 14 68 18Social media 13 69 17Chiefs or elders 13 83 3Private newspapers 12 72 16Govt. newspapers 11 72 16National Commission for Civic Education (NCCE) 10 76 13Q27. How much information on the 2016 elections have you received from the following sources:



How much information on 2016 elections do citizens obtain from specific sources(%) | October, 2016

A lot of information

A little or no information

Don’t know

Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) 9 48 43Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) 6 47 46Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO) 5 45 49Institute for Democratic Governance (IDEG) 4 47 49West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) 4 45 50Civic Forum Initiative (CFI) 4 44 51Q26. How much information have you received on the upcoming 2016 elections from the following Civil Society Organizations or election watchdog groups:

Election-support CSOs are hardly a source of information on theupcoming elections for voters.

• Less than a tenth of the electorate cited CSOs as a source of “a lot ofinformation” on the upcoming elections from.

• The majority either received “little or no information” or “don’t know” whetherthey received such information from these groups.


Preparedness of institutions for 2016 elections | October, 2016

The Police, Armed Forces, and the Electoral Commission emerge asthe top three institutions citizens perceive as most prepared for the2016 elections.

• Large majorities rate the Police (77%) the Armed Forces (76%) and

the Electoral Commission (73%) as “somewhat” or “very well”

prepared for the elections.

• The EC’s preparedness rating increased by a significant 15

percentage points over the July figure of 58%.


Preparedness of institutions for 2016 elections | October, 2016

Preparedness of state, non-state and quasi-state institutions for 2016 elections(%) | October, 2016

Very well or somewhat prepared

Not at all or not very well

preparedDon’t know

The Police 77 5 17The Armed Forces 76 4 19The Electoral Commission 73 8 18Independent Media Houses 63 4 31Government Media Houses 61 5 32The National Peace Council 54 9 36The Bureau of National Investigations 52 7 39The National Media Commission 51 8 40The National House of Chiefs 49 12 37The Inter-Party Advisory Committee 47 6 42District Security Committees (DISECs) 44 8 44The National/Regional/District election Taskforce 43 8 45The National Commission for Civic Education 42 14 43

Q12. In your opinion, how well prepared are the following institutions for the 2016 elections? If you haven't heard enough about any of theseinstitutions, please say "I don't know.


Preparedness of non-state institutions for 2016 elections | October, 2016

Ghanaians are relatively less impressed by the preparedness of civilsociety organizations for the 2016 elections.

• Only minorities (from 20% to 44%) perceive election-active CSOs in

the 2016 election process as prepared.

• In fact, majorities (from 50% to 73%) “don’t know” whether these

institutions are prepared for the upcoming elections.


Perceived preparedness of institutions for the 2016 elections | October, 2016

Preparedness of Election Watchdog Groups for the 2016 elections (%) | October,2016

Very well or somewhat prepared

Not at all or not very well

prepared

Don’t know

The Christian Council 44 6 50

The Federation of Muslim Councils 39 5 55

Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) 34 6 60

Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) 30 5 65

Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO) 25 5 69

Institute for Democratic Governance (IDEG) 24 6 70

West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) 23 5 70

Civic Forum Initiative (CFI) 20 5 73Q13. In your opinion, how well prepared are the following Civil Society Organizations or Election Watchdog Groups for the 2016 elections? Ifyou haven't heard enough about any of these institutions, please say "I don't know."

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Opinions on the credibility of the processes and outcomes of the 2016 elections


Popular opinions on the power of the ballot

• Ghanaians believe that their vote matters. Seven in 10 (in July and October)believe citizens can use their power as voters to choose leaders who willimprove their lives. Nonetheless, 22% remain skeptical (down by 5% sinceJuly).

Q9. Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. Statement 1: No matter whom wevote for, things will not get any better in the future. Statement 2: We can use our power as voters to choose leaders who will help usimprove our lives.


Ghanaians are hopeful about the prospect for free and fair 2016elections.

• A large majority of Ghanaians (83%) believe the December 2016 polls will

be “completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems”. (a 6

percentage point increase between July and October).

Perceived prospects of free and fair 2016 elections | July & October, 2016

Q18. How free and fair do you expect the next elections of December 2016 to be? Will they be:


• Very large majorities of Ghanaians (81% to 85%) expect key aspects ofthe electoral process (shown in the chart below) to be free and fair.

• However, between 8% to 11% of Ghanaians are pessimistic

Q19. Let’s break down the various parts of the upcoming 2016 elections. How free and fair do you expect these elections to be in termsof:

Expected freeness and fairness of aspects of the 2016 election process | July & October, 2016


Perceived cleanness of voters’ register | October, 2016

More than half of Ghanaians believe the current voters’ register is in goodshape for the 2016 elections.

• Almost 6 in every 10 Ghanaians (59%) rate the current voters’ list as“somewhat” or “very” clean.

• However, about a quarter (23%) think otherwise.

Q17. Some people in Ghana question the validity of the voters' register. The Electoral Commission has undertaken series of activities toensure that the electoral register is cleaned for the 2016 elections. In your opinion, would you say the current voters’ register for the 2016elections is clean or not clean?


A clear majority of Ghanaians support electronic and manualverification of voters in the 2016 elections.

• Close to two-thirds of Ghanaians (64%) “agree” or “agree very strongly”

with the statement that “Manual verification of voters who cannot beverified electronically will ensure that eligible voters do not lose the rightto vote.”

• However, a little over a quarter (26%) support the counter-

statement: “Application of both electronic and manual verification ofvoters in the 2016 polls is a recipe for electoral malpractices andconsequent violence.”

• Less than a tenth say they neither agree with any of the two statements

(4%) or don’t know (5%).

Opinions on the importance of measures the EC must take to ensure the credibility of 2016 polls | October, 2016


Assessments of the quality of recent pre-election exercises by the EC | October, 2016

• Majorities give positive assessments of the following activities theEC undertook to improve the credibility of the voters roll for the2016 elections (i.e. EC performed “very well” or “well”):

o 69%: The conduct of open or continuous registration exercise

o 69%: The exhibition of the voters roll at selected polling stations

o 65%: The conduct of the vote transfer exercise

o 62%: The re-registration of NHIS registrants whose names were

deleted from the voter’s roll

o 54%: The registration of eligible voters in the country’s prisons

• Sizable minorities (between 19% and 34%), however, said they didnot know whether the EC performed well or not in these activities.


Assessments of the quality of recent EC pre-election exercises | October, 2016

• Majorities (6 in 10 or more) assessed the EC’s activities to improve the

credibility of the voter register positively - as “quite” or “very” transparent.

(Although sizable minorities (between 21% and 36%) say they do

not know whether these processes were transparent or not.):

o 68%: The conduct of the open or continuous registration exercise

o 68%: The exhibition of the voters roll at selected polling stations

o 64%: The conduct of the vote transfer exercise

o 61%: The re-registration of NHIS registrants whose names were

deleted from the voter’s roll

o 53%: The registration of eligible voters in the country’s prisons

• About two-thirds of Ghanaians (65%) “approve” or “approve

strongly” the performance of the Chair of the Electoral

Commission since her appointment into office. A little over a fifth

(21%) holds the contrary view.

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Election 2016 integrity and peacefulness gaps


• A small majority of Ghanaians (51%) are convinced that come December2016 elections, political parties and/or candidates are “very likely” or“likely” to ignore electoral laws.

• A significant minority (40%) disagrees.

Q25. Thinking about the upcoming 2016 elections in December, how likely do you think the following will occur: (a) Political parties andcandidates ignore election laws?

Opinions on the likely integrity of the 2016 elections | October, 2016


Ghanaians appear to put a premium on credible elections.

• About 8 in 10 Ghanaians (78%) say they prefer to have completely freeand fair elections even if their candidates fail to win. (This is similar tothe July figure of 79%)

• Only 15% (compared to 16% in July) would prefer their candidate towin even if the election were not free and fair.

Opinions on the integrity of the 2016 elections | July & October, 2016

Prefer my candidate wins even if election is not completely free and fair vs.Prefer completely free and fair election, even if my candidate loses (%) | July &October, 2016

July, 2016 October, 2016Prefer an election that is completely free and fair even if my candidate does not win 79 78

Prefer candidate wins, even if the election is not completely free and fair 16 15

Agree With Neither 4 5Don’t know 1 2Q21. Thinking about elections in Ghana, which of the following is closest to your own view. Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2.


• A large minority (44%) believe it is “very” or “somewhat” likely that thewrong vote tally would be announced. Only half of Ghanaians (50%) trust thatthe correct ballot count would be announced.

• Nearly a third (31%) deem it likely that their votes would not be counted(although close to two-thirds (64%) do not share that fear).

• Although most Ghanaians (71%) believe it is ‘not at all’ or ‘not very’ likely forpowerful people to know who they voted for in the 2016 elections, nearly aquarter (24%) think otherwise.

(These opinions remained stable between July and October)

Likelihood of vote secrecy, fair vote count, correct vote tally announcement |July & October, 2016

July, 2016 October, 2016Not at all

or not very likely

Very or somewhat

likely

Don’t know

Not at all or not very

likely

Very or somewhat

likely

Don’t know

Even though there is supposed to be a secret ballot in this country, powerful people will find out how you voted.

71 25 4 71 24 5

Even though you will cast a ballot, your vote will not actually be counted.

63 32 5 64 31 5

Even after all ballots are counted an incorrect result will be announced

50 46 5 50 44 6

Q28. In your opinion, how likely will the following things happen in the 2016 elections?

Opinions on the likely integrity and peacefulness of the 2016 election | July & October, 2016


Opinions on the likely integrity and peacefulness of the 2016 election | July & October, 2016

• About 1 in 3 adult Ghanaians (29%), believe people in their communitywill suffer “somewhat” or “a great deal” if they voted for the party of theirchoice in the upcoming elections.

• Sixty-one percent do not harbor such fears.

• (Note the fear of negative reprisals for voting one’s choice hasincreased by 5 percentage points between July and October)

Q62. To what extent do you think people in your area will suffer negative consequences if they vote for the party of their choice in thiselection?


• Almost 7 in every 10 Ghanaians (69%) believe political parties and/orcandidates are “very likely” or “likely” to engage in vote buying.(This has gone up by 9 percentage points since July)

• Just a little over a fifth (23%) think otherwise.

25. Thinking about the upcoming 2016 elections in December, how likely do you think the following will occur: (b) Political parties andcandidates buying votes?



Q55. During the current campaign for the 2016 elections, how often has someone from a political party offered something, like money, foodor a gift: (A) To other people in your neighbourhood or village in return for their votes? (B) To you in return for your vote?

Incidence of vote-buying | July & October, 2016

Very few Ghanaians report personal experience with the offer of bribe for votes.

• Only 6% report that they have been offered money, food or gift by a party inexchange for votes in the 2016 campaign at least once or twice (16% inJuly).

• But 22% believe that someone in their neighborhood or village has beenmade a similar offer (a slight increase from 19% in July).


Q55C. [If “once or twice,” “a few times” or “often”] What did they offer? (NOTE: Multiple response analysis based on percentage ofresponses received)

Types of inducement used in vote-buying | July & October, 2016

• Cash/money was topmost (41%) among the items politicians reportedlyoffered in exchange for votes (7 percentage points lower than the July figure of48%)

• Clothing (24%) was the second topmost item, dislodging food from the secondposition it occupied in the first survey in July at 16%.


To many Ghanaians, an incumbent government handing out material things tocitizens or undertaking and commissioning projects in haste in an electionyear is purely vote buying.

• A majority of Ghanaians (55% each) “strongly agree” or “agree” with theassertion that the incumbent government’s doling out of material things (e.g.,fertilizers, sewing machines, gas stoves, and outboard motors) to citizens/undertaking and commissioning projects in haste in an election year amount tovote buying.

• But about a third (32% each) disagree.

What constitutes vote-buying to the ordinary Ghanaian? | October, 2016

Q55. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement:


An appreciable number of Ghanaians claim they see ‘indirect’ vote-buyingactivities in their districts, constituencies or communities.

• An average of over a tenth of the electorate report seeing the following activitiesin their community in the past six months:

o Previously unmotorable roads being rehabilitated (19%);o The tarring/asphalting of previously untarred roads (16%); ando The commissioning of new school buildings (13%).

• In addition, about 1 in 10 report seeing communities getting connected to thenational electricity grid; and 6% report the commissioning of a new clinic orhealth post.

Some Ghanaians perceive indirect vote-buying ahead of the 2016 polls| October, 2016

Citizens’ encounter with ‘indirect’ vote-buying activities of the incumbent government |October, 2016

Yes No

Rehabilitation of previously unmotorable road to make it motorable in the

last 6 months 19% 80%

Tarring or asphalting of previously untarred roads in the last 6 months 16% 82%

Commissioning of new school buildings in the last 6 months 13% 85%

Connecting your community or nearby communities to the national

electricity grid in the last 6 months 9% 89%

Commissioning of new public clinic or health post in the last 6 months 6% 92%Q55. Please tell me whether in the last 6 months you have seen any of the following in your community, district or constituency?

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Perceived intimidation, violence and abusive conduct in recent pre-election

activities


• Significant minorities (listed below) report hearing of intimidation of citizens inthe 2016 pre-election process; though a few (1% to 2% ) claim to havewitnessed such incidents themselves.

o 23%: The vote transfer exercise

o 22%: The re-registration of NHIS registrants

o 22%: The limited voter registration exercise

o 21%: The continuous voter registration exercise

o 19%: The exhibition of the voters’ roll

o 18%: A political party rally

o 17%: A political party meeting

o 16%: Debates between candidates of political parties

o 16%: A political party fundraising activity

o 16%: A political party house to house to canvass for votes

• A majority (ranging from 62% to 71%) neither heard, witnessed norexperienced such incident.

Incidence of intimidation and violence in the 2016 pre-election processes | October, 2016


• Appreciable minorities (listed below) say they heard reports of violentincidents during some of the 2016 pre-election processes.

o 22%: The re-registration of NHIS registrants

o 22%: The limited voter registration exercise

o 22%: The vote transfer exercise

o 20%: The continuous voter registration exercise

o 20%: The exhibition of the voters’ roll

o 18%: A political party rally

o 17%: A political party meeting

o 15%: A political party fundraising activity

o 15%: A political party house to house to canvass for votes

o 15%: Debates between candidates of political parties

• Again, a majority (between 65% and 73%) say they neither heard,witnessed nor experienced any acts of violence.

Incidence of intimidation and violence in the 2016 pre-election processes| October, 2016


• Close to 4 in 10 adult Ghanaians (39%) say they heard or witnessedpolitical party candidates or agents making abusive/inflammatorystatements or expressing hate in their speech during politicaldiscussions and election campaigns “once or twice,” “a few times”or “often” over the past six months. (A narrow majority of Ghanaians(55%) say they never heard or witnessed such abusiveactions/utterances.)

• At least, a third of those who reported hearing or witnessing abusive andslanderous utterances described them as:

o 37%: Insulting and offensive

o 36%: Provocative/ inciting

o 30%: Promoting divisiveness among Ghanaians

o 30%: Peddling unsubstantiated allegations

o 29%: Endorsing electoral violence

o 29%: Stoking sectarian, ethnic division or tribalism

o 24%: Discriminatory and denigrating to female candidates

Incidence of abusive conduct by party candidates/party agents in the 2016 pre-election processes | October, 2016


Incidence of election related violent conflicts and vandalism involving party candidates/supporters in the 2016 pre-election processes |October 2016

• Majorities (an average of 75%) say they never heard, witnessed ordirectly experienced any acts of electoral violence or vandalism in theirconstituencies.

• An average of 15% of adult Ghanaians report hearing about thefollowing:

o Mob violence by party supporters in their constituency

o Fistfights between supporters of rival political parties in theirconstituency

o Destruction of campaign materials (posters, flyers, and flags) of apolitical party or candidate in their constituency; and

o Destruction of public and private properties (such as offices orvehicles by) angry political party supporters in their constituency)


• A significant minority of Ghanaians claim awareness of political party-affiliated private militias.

o 31%: Azorka Boys

o 27%: Bolga Bull Dogs

o 21%: Invincible Forces

o 18%: Bamba Boys

o 13%: Kandahar Boys

• Other groups identified include Aluta Boys, Nima Boys, Salifu Eleven,Zongo Caucus, Verandar Boys, Supreme, Mahama Boys, Delta Force,Badariba, Basuka Boys and Bindiriba.

• Nearly 7 out of every 10 respondents (66%) who claimed awareness ofthese groups associated them with the NDC, while 18% linked them tothe NPP.

• Irrespective of the presumed party affiliation of these private militias, aclear majority of Ghanaians (63%) regard their operations and activitiesof these groups as a threat to democracy, and risk to the country. Notethat 9 percent hold the opposite view.

Awareness of activities of private militia in the 2016 elections | October, 2016

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Prospects for election violence and peaceful resolution of election conflict


• Majority of Ghanaians (54%) believe political parties and/or candidatesare “very likely” or “likely” to use violence in the upcoming 2016 elections.

• Nearly 4 in 10 Ghanaians (37%), however, do not the possibility.


Q25. Thinking about the upcoming 2016 elections in December, how likely do you think the following will occur: (c) Political parties andcandidates using violence?


Commitment to peaceful elections appear to be stronger than free andfair elections.

• Nearly two-thirds of Ghanaians (62%) say they prefer an election to beentirely peaceful even if it is not completely free and fair (64% in July).

• However, a little below a quarter (24%) would rather have an electionthat is completely free and fair even if it is not entirely peaceful.

Prefer completely free and fair elections, even if not entirely peaceful vs. Prefer anentirely peaceful election, even not completely free and fair. (%) | July & October, 2016

July, 2016 October, 2016Prefer an election that is entirely peaceful, even if it is not completely free and fair

64 62

Prefer an election that is completely free and fair, even if it is not entirely peaceful

24 24

Agree With Neither 11 12Don’t know 1 1Q24. Thinking about the upcoming elections in Ghana, which of the following is closest to your own view. Choose Statement 1 or Statement2

Opinions on the integrity and peacefulness of the 2016 election | July & October, 2016


Popular opinions on actions citizens should undertake if the 2016 election results do not honestly and accurately reflect the will of voters | July & October, 2016

July, 2016 October, 2016Yes No Yes No

Seek redress in court 75% 19% 72% 20%Engage in peaceful demonstration 48% 46% 40% 53%Take law into hands by engaging in violent protests 5% 90% 5% 89%Q65. If the results of the 2016 election do not honestly and accurately reflect the will of the voters, what should the aggrieved people do?

Opinions on the integrity and peacefulness of the 2016 election | July & October, 2016

Most Ghanaians want voters who feel aggrieved over the 2016 electionresults to seek redress through the courts.

• Seven in 10 (72% in October vs. 75% in July) say citizens who think the

2016 election results do not reflect the will of the people should seek redress

in the courts of law. A fifth (20%) disagree (19% in July disagree).

• Forty percent support peaceful demonstration; 53% are against it (vs. 46%

in July).

• Indeed, a large majority of Ghanaians (89%) do not subscribe to the use of

violent protests in resolving election disputes (90% in July).


Q67. Statement 1: It is important to obey the government formed by any political party that wins the 2016 elections no matter who you voted for. Statement 2: It is not necessary to obey the laws of a government formed by a political party that you did not vote for in the 2016 elections.

• Almost 9 in 10 Ghanaians (82%) say it is important to obey a duly electedgovernment even if you did not vote for it (a 6 percentage point drop in theJuly figure of 88%).

• Fourteen percent say it is not necessary to obey the laws of a government youdid not vote for (a 5 percentage point increase between July and October).

Popular acceptance of duly elected government’s legitimacy| July & October, 2016


Popular rejection of violence as a political instrument | July & October, 2016

Q58. Statement 1: The use of violence is never justified in Ghanaian politics today. Statement 2: In this country, it is sometimes necessary to use violence in support of a just cause.

• An absolute majority of Ghanaians (8 in 10 in both July and October)say the use of violence is never justified in Ghanaian politics.

• But over 1 in 10 (12% in both July and October) say violence issometimes necessary if used to support a just cause.


Likelihood of violence breaking out during and after the 2016 poll | July & October, 2016

Sizeable proportions of the electorate harbor apprehensions about thepossible outbreak of violence before, during and after 2016 elections.

• Between a fifth to nearly a third of Ghanaians (i.e. 18% to 29%) see thelikelihood of violence breaking out between or among some actors duringand after the 2016 elections (No change from July findings).

Likelihood of violence before, during and after the 2016 polls (%) | July &October, 2016

July, 2016 October, 2016Very or

somewhat unlikely

Very or somewhat

likely

Very or somewhat

unlikely

Very or somewhat

likely

Between rival political party supporters before the election, that is during the election campaign

63 29 62 29

Between rival political party supporters after the election, especially when results are announced

62 30 62 29

Between rival political party supporters on the day of the election, that is when people line up to vote

64 28 63 28

Between an opposition party and security forces 66 24 68 22Within a political party 68 23 71 20Between the incumbent party and security forces 70 19 71 18Q60. Think of your electoral constituency, that is, the area where you and your neighbors cast ballots in elections. In your view,what is the risk of election-related violence? In other words, is violence likely or unlikely.


• People in Northern, Brong Ahafo, Upper West, Ashanti, and Eastern Regionsare more likely than people in Western, Volta or Central Regions (by 15%) toperceive violent clashes after the announcement of the election results.

Perceived likelihood of violent clashes after announcement of election results | by region | October, 2016


Perceived neutrality of the Electoral Commission | July & October, 2016

• Most Ghanaians (69%) (representing 6 percentage points increasefrom the July figure of 63%) “agree” or “strongly” agree with thestatement that: “The EC performs its duties as a neutral body guided onlyby law.”

• A little over a fifth (23%), however disagrees: they believe the ECtakes decisions meant to favor particular people, parties, or interests(30% in July).

Q21. Statement 1: The Electoral Commission performs its duties as a neutral body guided only by law. vs. Statement 2: The ElectoralCommission makes decisions that favour particular people, parties or interests

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Opinions on safeguarding the credibility and peacefulness of the 2016 polls


Popular opinions on the importance of the following measures for ensuring freeand fair Election 2016 | October, 2016

Very or somewhat important

Not at all or not very

importantDon’t know

Ensuring there is no political violence 94 3 3

Ensuring the police and army are neutral and impartial 94 3 3

Quickly resolving any post-election disputes. 94 3 3

Exhibition of voters’ roll for public inspection 93 4 3

Releasing election results as soon as possible at the end of polls 93 4 3

Transmission of results from polling stations to constituency collation centers

93 4 4

Posting of copies of statement of results at polling stations immediately after counting and declaration at all polling stations

92 3 5

Transmission of results from constituency collation centers to the Electoral Commission’s Head Office

91 5 4

Giving each political party a copy of the voters’ roll 89 7 4

Deleting names of NHIS card registrants from the voters’ roll 66 25 9

Q20. Please tell me how important you think each of the following measures will be in ensuring that 2016 elections will be free and fair.

• The Majority of Ghanaians believe the pursuit of measures listed below are“very” or “somewhat” important for ensuring the 2016 elections are free andfair.

Opinions on the importance of measures the EC must take to ensure the credibility of 2016 polls | October, 2016


Popular demand for armed security presence at polling stations | July & October, 2016

Q63. Would the presence of armed security personnel (army or police) at polling stations make you feel more secure, make no difference,or make you feel less secure in this election?

A strong majority of the electorate say the presence of armed securitypersonnel at polling stations on the election day would make them feel moresecure.

• Eight in 10 Ghanaians believe the presence of armed security personnel atpolling stations during the 2016 polls will make them feel “more secure” or“secure” (79% in July).

• A little over a tenth (12%) think presence of security personnel at polling stationsmakes no difference.


Popular opinions on safeguarding the integrity of the 2016 polls | July & October, 2016

Q64. Would the presence of the following make things better or worse in this election?

A majority of Ghanaians are equally convinced that the presence of bothinternational and domestic election observers will make the 2016 electionsbetter.

• Six in every ten Ghanaians (61% each) believe the presence of internationaland domestic election observers during the elections will make things “muchbetter” or “better”.

• However, close to a quarter (23% and 24%) say their presence will notmake any difference.


Large majorities accept the authority of the key state institutions implicated inthe election processes. They:

• Accept the EC as the sole agency to authoritatively declare the results of theDecember 7 elections: 94%

• Reject the idea of a political arrogating to itself the authority to declare theresults of the election

• Accept the authority of the courts to make binding decisions: 88% (slightly downfrom 90% in July)

• Accept the authority of the police to enforce the law: 85% (down from 89% inJuly).

But the Inspector General of Police’s threat to block the social media does notenjoy much popular support.

• A significant minority of Ghanaians (43% in October vs. 46% in July) disagreewith the idea of the IGP/government shutting down social media platforms onelection day; 36% agree (37% in July).

Popular acceptance of the authority of the police and the courts | October, 2016


Popular acceptance of the authority of the police and the courts | October, 2016

Popular acceptance of authority of state institutions | October, 2016Strongly agree or

agree

Strongly disagree or

disagree

EC has authority to declare the winner of 2016 elections 94% 2%Courts have the right to make decisions that people always must obey 88% 5%

The police always have the right to make people obey the law 85% 9%Govt. /IGP have the right to shut down social media platforms on election day 36% 43%

A political party has the right to declare election results 14% 76%Q66. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you disagree or agree?

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Party footprints


Feel close to a political party? | July & October, 2016

A majority of Ghanaians are affiliated with a political party.

• About two-thirds (64%) say they “feel close” to a party (62% in Julysurvey).

• However, nearly a third (31%) don’t feel close to a party (32% in Julysurvey).

Q40A. Do you feel close to any particular political party? In other words, is there a party that takes positions that you like?


• Exactly half of adult Ghanaians (50%) say their immediate familymembers vote for same party as they do (47% in July).

• However, the majority (i.e. from 54% to 66%) say the vote preferences oftheir friends, co-workers, neighbours and people in their region aredivided among different political parties (i.e. from 52% to 61% in July).

Voter preferences in Ghana: collective or individual? | July & October, 2016October, 2016 July, 2016

Yes, support same party

Support divided among different

parties or support other parties

Yes, support same party

Support divided among different

parties or support other parties

Members of your family 50% 38% 47% 39%

Your friends 29% 54% 28% 52%

Your neighbours 19% 61% 20% 57%

Your co-workers 16% 60% 17% 55%

People in this region of the country 10% 66% 12% 61%Q46. Do you think that the following people vote like you, or do they vote for another party?

Voter preferences in Ghana: collective or individual? | July & October, 2016

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Summary findings and conclusions


Summary of findings | October, 2016

Reasons to be confident about the prospects for credible and

peaceful 2016 polls:

• The electorate seems generally well prepared; nearly all claimawareness of key aspects of the poll process and ballot castingrequirements; claim to be registered and declare an intention to vote.

• Many expect the elections to be free and fair as well as peaceful.

• Confidence in the preparedness of key state bodies, notably the EC, tomanage the election has increased. Perceived preparedness of the EChas improved and now ranks third only behind the Armed Forces andthe police.

• EC trust rating has also improved (it now ranks third and behind thearmy and the police).


But concerns about likelihood of vote manipulation and violencepersist:

• Majorities perceive party and candidate breach of election laws andregulations, vote-buying, and deployment of violence during elections.

• Inadequate confidence in vote secrecy and the integrity of the votecounting process.

• Considerable fear of the wrong vote tally being announced persists (44%in October versus 46% in July); and fear of negative reprisals for votechoice also persists (indeed risen by 5 percentage points since July).

• Moreover, a significant minority express concerns about the breakout ofpre, during and post-election violence between rival parties, withinparties, and between party supporters and security agencies persist.

• This seems to drive strong popular demand for armed securitypersonnel as well as domestic and international election observerpresence to ensure polling security and integrity persists.



• While levels of trust in public institutions have largely improved between Julyand October, they are still relatively low.

• Close to 4 in 10 adult Ghanaians (39%) report hearing of/witnessing politicalparty candidates or their agents making abusive/inflammatory statements orusing hateful speech during political discussions and in the electioncampaign “once or twice,” “a few times” or “often” over the past six months.

• Appreciable percentages of Ghanaians (24% to 37%) described someinflammatory speeches they heard as insulting and offensive;unsubstantiated allegations against other candidates or political partiesand/or discriminatory and demeaning to female candidates.

• Between 15% to 23% also report hearing of incidents of intimidation orviolence during some pre-election activities of the election managementbody or political parties.



• Furthermore, over a tenth (13%) to close to a third (31%) of the electorateclaim awareness of the existence of an armed militia/vigilante group oranother that is affiliated with a political party and/or candidate.

• Some attitudes indicate possibilities for condoning election rigging (15% ofadult Ghanaians would prefer that their candidate emerges victorious in the2016 elections, even if it is not free and fair) and/civil disobedience (20%) saythey do not subscribe to the idea of the aggrieved over the election resultsseeking redress in the law courts.



• Fortunately, there is a lot of trust in the state security actors (police andmilitary) and there is widespread acceptance of the authority of stateinstitutions. It is therefore crucial that their responses are measuredand not overtly politicized --- because once violence breaks out, it cangrow exponentially and may be difficult to contain.

• Going forward, efforts should be taken to promote the transparentadministration of the election, ensure widespread oversight of the votecount, and support the professionalism and impartiality of securityactors.

Conclusions | October, 2016

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THE END

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Survey methodology


• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens

o All respondents are randomly selected.

o Sample is distributed across regions and urban-rural areas inproportion to their share in the national population.

o Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.

• Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice.

• Sample size of 2,680 yields a margin of error of ±2% at a 95%confidence level.

• Fieldwork (or data collection) was took place from October 14 to 26,2016.

Methodology

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Demographics of surveylocation and respondents


Demographics | About survey location | October, 2016

RegionSurvey

distributionNational distribution of adult population

Western 9.5% 9.5%Central 8.7% 8.7%Greater Accra 18.6% 18.6%Volta 8.6% 8.6%Eastern 10.6% 10.6%Ashanti 19.5% 19.5%Brong Ahafo 9.0% 9.0%Northern 8.9% 8.9%Upper East 4.0% 4.0%Upper West 2.6% 2.6%Geographical location and coverage Rural 46.0% 46.0%Urban 54.0% 54.0%Number of districts surveyed 163Number of towns/villages surveyed 291


Demographics | About survey location | October, 2016


Demographics | About survey respondents | October, 2016

GenderMale 50.0%Female 50.0%AgeYouth (18-35 years) 52%Young adults (36-50 years) 28%Old adults (51-60 years) 10%Elderly (61 years and above) 7%Mean age 37 yearsMedian age 35 yearsModal age 28 yearsLowest age 18 yearsHighest age 88 yearsHighest level of educationSecondary (completed & partial) 46%Primary (completed & partial) 24%None or informal schooling 17%Tertiary (post-sec/polytechnic/university) 13%


ReligionChristian religion 80%Islamic religion 16%Traditional religion 1%None 3%Main occupationTrader (retailer/shop owner, hawker & vendor) 28%Agriculture (farming, fishing & forestry) 24%Artisan, skilled manual worker, Supervisor/Foreman/Senior Manager 18%Clerical/secretarial, mid and upper level professionals 8%Unskilled manual worker 6%Security services (police, army, private security) 1%Never had a job, housewife, or student 15%

Demographics | About survey respondents | October, 2016

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