Getting the most out of short supply: optimising energy efficiency measures at national level
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Getting the most out of short supply: optimising energy efficiency measures at national level
Csutora Mária, PhD, BCE
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Framework
“Sustainable production, consumption and communication” project of five research institutions and universitties, financed by the Norway grants.
Methodology:– cost benefit analysis– a former study, Economics of GHG Mitigation, UNEP
RISO project, 1997
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Energy saving options are crucial:
In reducing the import dependency of energy supply, especially natural gas
In reducing GHG emission and other pollution In supporting sustainability of consumption
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Questions to be asked What is a relistic and feasible potential for energy savings
options in the residential and communal sectors in Hungary?
How high are social costs of implementation?Should we invest in energy savings or in expanded energy production?
Can energy savings options be regarded as real alternatives to expanded energy production (new power stations)? How much energy could we save at what cost?
How should we allocate limited financial resouces in order to achieve the highest level of energy reduction at national level? Which options should we subsidize?
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Private costs vs social costs Price corrections are applied Social costs include externalities Subsidies are social costs Indirect taxes are not included in social costs
We use social discount rate (STPR) instead of private one
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Total social cost of energy saving options
Unit costHUF/PJ
Energy saved (PJ)
MAC social Total social costs of
energy savings options
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Cost curve for discrete options
Cos
t, H
UF
/ene
rgy
save
d
energy savings from option No.7
Social cost of option No.7
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Szervezeti egység
Energy savings options
Most promising options
Energy saved
Marginal social cost of energy savings options
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MAC changes with time
Unit costHUF/PJ
Energy saved (PJ)
MAC0 social
The effect of increasing energy prices MAC1 social
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Implementation is likely
Private and social marginal cost curve
Unit cost
Energy saved
Implementation is less likely
ΣMAC private MAC social
Implementation
assumessubsidies
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Options to be analysed Residential and communal options: Changes of windows Supplementary insulation of basements, roofsand walls (by building categories) Programozható termosztát More efficient boilers Using high tech appliances in an efficient way Bioethanol and biodiesel? CFL bulbs, luminaires napkollektor
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Supplementary materials
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Assumptions
Energy prices Penetration level Realistic options Projects with synergic effects Social and private discount rates External costs
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Az ellátásbiztonság és a fenntarthatóság DPSIR köre
HatótényezőkFogyasztás növekedéseFosszilis energiahordozókra való támaszkodás
Terhelés:ÜHG kibocsátás,szennyezés
Hatótényezők: -Fogyasztás növekedéseFosszilis energiahordozók Magas és növekvő importfüggőségAlacsony diverzifikációMagas energiaintenzitás
Állapot:Magas ÜHG koncentrációKlímaváltozás
Hatás:Aszályok, árvíz, stb.
Ellátás-biztonsági problémák
Magas árak hiány, politikai problémák
VálaszokKözös energia piac, KészletezésKapacitásbővítés
VálaszokKörnyezet-tudatosságMegújuló energiaforrásokHelyi erőforrásokEnergiahatékonyságEnergiamegtakarítás
Ellátás biztonság köre Fenntarthatóság köre
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External costs of electricity production in EU-25, 1990 and 2004 - low estimate (European Environmental Agency)
http://themes.eea.europa.eu/Sectors_and_activities/energy/indicators/EN35%2C2007.04/fig1a.gif/view
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The external costs in the above two figures are based upon the sum of three components associated with the production of electricity: climate change damage costs associated with
emissions of CO2; damage costs (such as impacts on health, crops etc) associated with other air pollutants (NOx, SO2,
NMVOCs, PM10, NH3), and other non-environmental social costs for non-fossil electricity-generating technologies. The
external costs from nuclear have to be treated with caution, as only parts of the externalities are included. The costs reflect to a
large extent the small amount of emissions of CO2 and air pollutants, and the low risk of accidents.
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Market price and lifecycle costs
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Theoretical background
Mely esetekben szolgálja az energiahatékonyság növelése a környezeti hatások csökkenését?– Rebound és backfire effects: az energiahatékonyságból származó
jövedelmi hatás erősebb, mint a hatékonyság javulásának hatása: nő az energiaigény
– A hatékonyság javítása csak az energiakínálat korlátozása mellett vezet a környezeti hatások csökkentéséhez
– Az energiahatékonyság javításának célja a jóllét megőrzése a környezeti hatások csökkentése mellett (nem pedig a „fenntartható növekedés”)
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Szervezeti egység
Dealing with backfire effect
Limited supply of energy Integrated regulation efforts (regulation encourages
energy efficiency options and increased use of energy at the same time)
Fighting against “silly” solutions