Getting started with decision discovery
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Transcript of Getting started with decision discovery
Getting Started with
Decision Discovery
James Taylor CEO
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Your Presenters
James Taylor
I’m a passionate believer in the power of Decision Management to deliver simpler, smarter and more agile processes. I write, speak, consult and work on Decision Management and Decision Modeling.
Juergen Pitschke
I‘m a coach, consultant, speaker, writer, …
Engineer Helping customers to apply Decision Management successfully
Agenda
Identify Decisions
Scope Decisions
Decompose Decisions
Decision Context
Automating Decisions
Manual Decisions
Next Steps
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
3 steps to decision management
Identify and model
the decisions that
are most important
to your operational
processes
Design and build
independent
decision services
using business rules
and advanced
analytics
Create a “closed
loop” between
operations and
analytics to
measure results and
drive improvement
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Why Identify and Model Decisions?
Simplify processes
Effectively deploy
business rules
Flexibly define
automation boundaries
Effectively deploy
predictive analytics
Different Types of Decisions
Decision Points
Do we need a Business Process Model?
1. How do you identify decisions?
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 5
Strategic Decisions
Tactical Decisions
Operational Decisions
Different Kinds of Decisions
©2014 Decision Management Solutions 6
©2014 Decision Management Solutions 7
Many Ways To Discover Decisions
Business Events Legacy Systems
Business Processes
Business Intelligence
Brainstorm KPIs
Micro and hidden
Decisions
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Processes Can Hide Decisions
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Simplify By Making Decisions Explicit
A business
process cannot
progress any
further unless
they are made
A particular
event has
occurred and
must be
handled
A person must
choose
between a
number of
options
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Decisions Are Made Because
10
2. How do we scope the decisions we identify?
Scope a Decision
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 12
• What is the question to answer?
• E.g. • Is this student eligible for an award?
• Is this student eligible for this specific award?
• Which product should we offer to this customer?
• What are the possible answers?
• Specify the possible answers • Single value
• Value Range
• List of Values
Scope a Decision
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 13
• What is the object of the decision?
• E.g. • What is an ”award“?
• What does “Which product should we offer to this customer?” mean? – Only a product type? A specific product for a specific price?
Decision Scope and Process
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 14
• Process and Decision scope are mutually dependent.
What information contributes to the decision?
Where does the knowledge come from?
What about information from other decisions?
Reuse and the decision network
3. How do you decompose Decisions?
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 15
Decision
Input Data
Dependent
Decisions
Authority
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Decisions Require Information
“Determine Parts Availability” requires BOM and Inventory information
“Validate Tax Return” requires Return and Citizen information
“Refer claim for fraud” requires Claim and Provider information
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Decisions Require Knowledge
“Reorder parts” requires supplier capabilities, shortage risks
“Validate Tax Return” requires Tax Regulations
“Refer claim for fraud” requires likelihood of fraud
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Decisions Require Decisions
These decisions must be made first Is this a good time to make an offer?
Which product should the offer be for?
How valuable an offer?
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
4. What’s the context for a decision?
Decision Context
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 22
• What is the business value of the decision? • Frequency
• Financial Value
• Risk
• …
• Business Motivation • What is the motivation for the decision activity?
• Analytical vs. Predictive
• How can we measure decisions?
Decision Context
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 23
• Where is the decision used? • Impact Analysis
• Who is involved? • RACI Charts for Decisions
• Meta information for Project Management, Operations, …
Specifying decision logic with various metaphors: Decision Tables, Natural Language and everything between
Decision Tables: The devil is in the detail
Linking models to implementation
5. How do you prepare Decisions for automation?
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 24
Define Automation Boundaries
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Specify Logic with Decision Tables
Most common rule format
A set of rules in a tabular layout
Look up tables, comparing attribute values
Various formats
Applicant Risk
U
Applicant Age
Medical History Applicant Risk Rating
1 > 60
good Medium
2 bad High
3 [25..60] - Medium
4 < 25
good Low
5 bad Medium
Special Discount
Type of Order Web -
Customer Location US -
Type of Customer Wholesaler Retailer -
Special Discount % 10 5 0
F 1 2 3
Credit Limit Assignment
Credit Limit
Income
< $40,000 >= $40,000
Card Type
Standard $1,000 $2,000
Gold $1,500 $2,500
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Variety of Implementation Formats
Rule Flow or Decision Flow
Rule Sheet or Decision Table Decision Tree
Decision Table
Link To Automation
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
6. What other uses are there besides automation?
Describing Manual Decisions
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 30
Describing Manual Decisions
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 31
• Model ≠ Model Output • What deliverables do we expect from our Decision
Modeling project? SOPs, Checklists, Work Orders, Guidelines, Documentation, …
• How do we create such deliverables?
Describing Manual Decisions
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 32
• What does the business user understand? • Decision Tables or Natural Language
• Other metaphors
• What problems does the Decision Analyst face? • Analyzing a Decision Table versus Analyzing Natural
Language
• How can we formalize ”gut feeling“?
Describing Manual Decisions
© BCS - Dr. Juergen Pitschke 2003 - 2014 33
Analyze Decision Tables
Source: DMN Specification (bmi-13-08-01)
Transform into Desired Output
Next Steps
Succeed with Decisions
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
3 steps to decision management
Identify and model
the decisions that
are most important
to your operational
processes
Design and build
independent
decision services
using business rules
and advanced
analytics
Create a “closed
loop” between
operations and
analytics to
measure results and
drive improvement
©2014 Decision Management Solutions
Learn More about Decision Discovery
Training and Workshops
Live, online training
Free Resources & Tutorials
decisionmanagementsolutions.com
BPM in Practice 2014, October 10, Hamburg
Pre-Conference Workshop “Decision Management”, October 9
www.bpmpractice.de
www.enterprise-design.eu