Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une...
Transcript of Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une...
Getting in the Right Lane for 2050
From vision to strategy for energy‐related issues
Prof. Dr. Maarten HajerNetherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency
Getting in the Right Lane for 2050
2050: Europe is a low carbon society
Vision
2050: Europe as a low carbon society
Low carbon: important trade offs and synergies with: Energy security
Competition for land and water: i.e. food, bio‐energy and biodiversity
Transport and mobility
Approach:Zooming in from global to EU
Long‐term visions (2050) to near‐term strategic choices EU
EU key tools and global leverage: making it work
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Climate change as risk:
the rationale of the two‐degrees target4
Stabilizing climate change
Decrease of emissions worldwide 50%, Annex‐1 does 80‐95%Vision for EU: 80% less GHG emitted within EU itselfStrong diversification improves security of supply
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System inertia6
The contours of a low carbon society in fours:
1. an energy system emitting 80 % less greenhouse gases
85% of EU energy from carbon neutral sources.
Example modelling shows that this is attainable
with technologies identifiable today.
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The contours of a low carbon society in fours:
2. primary energy use8
One
option: focus on
CCS + 20% renewables.
Cost‐efficient
on
the basis of current
expectations.
Prudent to
maintain
diversity.
The contours of a low carbon EU in fours:
3. energy use of buildings12
The contours of a low carbon EU in fours:
4. transport13
Vision 2050: Low‐carbon
European
transport systems
Carbon dioxide emissions from transport in 2050 are 80% less than in 1990 This includes aviation and shipping European transport systems:reliable
efficient
robust to fluctuations in fuel prices
optimally support the EU economy
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A route towards low carbon EU transport15
Land resources, food, biodiversity16
Biodiversity: trend is continued
decline17
Biodiversity: trend is continued decline
Least decline in tundra, boreal forest, deserts
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Land and water resources, vision
2050
World: food for allwith minimal loss of biodiversity and an end to the loss in 2050
EU alsonurture diversity in European agricultural practices, as a buffer against ‘shocks’ in a very crowded world
Therefore,
bio‐energy
…
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Estimates
for
bio‐energy
potential
2050
100 EJ/year
by
2050
Impacts will need to be monitored.
Amount is on the low end of the range.
Seems implementable
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Targeted allocation of bio‐energy needed in EU
Limited, uncertain potential... Adds claim on agricultural resources…… but important ingredient
Vision: used where largest benefit modest amount
Requires long‐term vision & purposive EU‐directive
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European electricity grid to capture full potential of renewables:
example off‐shore wind23
VIGO (PT)
TALIN (EE)
GDANSK (P)
ABERDEEN (S)
Wind Electricity Costs
in 2020
North
Sea
Capacity
> 100 GW
Grid
connection
is key
A low‐carbon EU energy system: how to get there?24
Now is the moment to get in the right lane
Opportunities economic crisisNeed for long‐term vision and frameworkWhile the EU is still an influential power
Picture the EU in the
world of 2050
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Key notions in this study
Low carbon society requires systemic changeBe aware of system inertia
Interim solutions (typicaly 2020‐2030) may easily create lock‐in
New technologies require massive acceleration by 2020‐2030 to reach visions
Flexibility by 2050 requires planning now e.g. long‐term allocation of biofuels
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Key notions in this study (2)
EU predominantly an economic power; regulation and product standards its key tools
EU regulation has global leverage
Leverage shrinks towards 2050
Solving upcoming global disputes on land resources, food and biodiversity: analogy with climate policy development over the past 25 years may help to find format, build alliances, save time
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From long‐term vision for the planet …
… to near‐term action for EU
EU leadership climate agreements
cofinancing action by non‐Annex I countries;
push in aviation and marine
Role for EU indispensableE.g. electricity grid
Demand side needs to be balanced, too
Technology ‘supply side’ is not enough
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Planning for
2050
Planning is persuasive storytelling
About
the future (James Throgmorton)
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Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 – a primer for a debate
Comments welcome!
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