Getting Downscaled Getting Downscaled Climate Forecasts Climate Forecasts

to Local Usersto Local Users

Mark ShaferDirector of Climate InformationOklahoma Climatological SurveyMarch 9, 2004

Climate ForecastsClimate ForecastsProbabilistic departures from Probabilistic departures from

normalnormal

Climate ForecastsClimate ForecastsSolution: DownscalingSolution: Downscaling

Problem: Seasonal periods, Large areasProblem: Seasonal periods, Large areas

Making Forecasts Making Forecasts Meaningful Meaningful

to the Clientele to the Clientele What do these probability shifts mean?What do these probability shifts mean?

How to explain it to the users?How to explain it to the users?

Is putting these new products on a Is putting these new products on a website enough?website enough?

Challenge: local users must be aware of Challenge: local users must be aware of products and know how to integrate products and know how to integrate them into operationsthem into operations

Who will provide Who will provide downscaled climate downscaled climate

forecasts? forecasts? (1)(1) NWS directly conducts service and NWS directly conducts service and

outreach programoutreach program pros: people closest to the information source pros: people closest to the information source

provide the serviceprovide the service cons: requires tremendous investment of new cons: requires tremendous investment of new

resourcesresources

(2)(2) NWS partners with existing NWS partners with existing service organizationsservice organizations

pros: utilizes existing media, technology, and pros: utilizes existing media, technology, and relationshipsrelationships

cons: requires “buy-in” by other organizationscons: requires “buy-in” by other organizations

Choosing the Right Choosing the Right ModelModel

Each model has advantages and Each model has advantages and disadvantages, so which to choose disadvantages, so which to choose

Have to pick a method that meshes with Have to pick a method that meshes with other governmental programsother governmental programs

All of this is structured by All of this is structured by FederalismFederalism

FederalismFederalism

The framework that governs relationships The framework that governs relationships between constituent governmentsbetween constituent governments

Multiple arenas, shifting balance of powerMultiple arenas, shifting balance of power

Each arena has an “area of competence”, Each arena has an “area of competence”, but it does not function in isolationbut it does not function in isolation

Resources and knowledge are shared Resources and knowledge are shared among governments, both horizontally among governments, both horizontally and verticallyand vertically

FederalismFederalism

Constitutional Basis: Defines national Constitutional Basis: Defines national powers while sovereignty in other areas powers while sovereignty in other areas retained by the statesretained by the states

Ambiguity: multiple arenas, multiple Ambiguity: multiple arenas, multiple branches creates competition for powerbranches creates competition for power

Supreme Court limits federal powers, but Supreme Court limits federal powers, but gives free reign on conditions attached to gives free reign on conditions attached to grantsgrants

Political dynamic – negotiation & rulesPolitical dynamic – negotiation & rules

Stages of FederalismStages of Federalism

I: Small Government (1789 – 1930s)I: Small Government (1789 – 1930s)

II: New Deal (1930s – 1960s)II: New Deal (1930s – 1960s)

III: Great Society (1960s – 1970s)III: Great Society (1960s – 1970s)

IV: New Federalism (1980s – present)IV: New Federalism (1980s – present)

New Federalism New Federalism CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Dual sovereignty: “sorting out” functions Dual sovereignty: “sorting out” functions among arenas of governmentamong arenas of government

Devolution: more local discretionDevolution: more local discretion

Limited funding: budget deficits constrain Limited funding: budget deficits constrain programsprograms

Climate Services & Climate Services & New Federalism New Federalism

multiple providers – multiple arenas of multiple providers – multiple arenas of government: federal, regional, state, localgovernment: federal, regional, state, local

discretion: each provider sets own prioritiesdiscretion: each provider sets own priorities

Limited funding: most state and local offices Limited funding: most state and local offices are small; taking on new tasks requires are small; taking on new tasks requires additional resourcesadditional resources

Deficit: federal budget deficit means agency Deficit: federal budget deficit means agency budgets likely to remain flat, at bestbudgets likely to remain flat, at best

Back to original Back to original question: question:

Who will provide Who will provide downscaled climate downscaled climate

forecasts?forecasts? Federal budget restraints mean NWS Federal budget restraints mean NWS cannot add staff – must rely on other cannot add staff – must rely on other climate service partnersclimate service partners

Limited state resources mean state Limited state resources mean state offices cannot take on additional servicesoffices cannot take on additional services

Solution?Solution?

Federal and regional agencies provide Federal and regional agencies provide quality-assured, consistent data sets and quality-assured, consistent data sets and web-based products, lessening the need web-based products, lessening the need for state offices to develop tools for state offices to develop tools independentlyindependently

NWS Forecast offices train people on the NWS Forecast offices train people on the “public desk” to utilize existing climate “public desk” to utilize existing climate data and products (i.e., ACIS, cooperative data and products (i.e., ACIS, cooperative observer-based products, climate observer-based products, climate studies) studies)

Solution?Solution?

State offices, by not having to re-create State offices, by not having to re-create basic products and answer basic climate basic products and answer basic climate questions, can focus more on working questions, can focus more on working with communities, stakeholder groups, with communities, stakeholder groups, and producing in-depth analyses and and producing in-depth analyses and servicesservices

Local Offices: The Local Offices: The Missing LinkMissing Link

Even with improved collaboration among Even with improved collaboration among existing climate partners, still needs more existing climate partners, still needs more local accesslocal access

NRCS and University Extension have presence NRCS and University Extension have presence in every county / community in most statesin every county / community in most states

Routinely provide climate services but may Routinely provide climate services but may not realize itnot realize it

Need: training and outreach to NRCS and Need: training and outreach to NRCS and Extension staff to improve the flow of Extension staff to improve the flow of information to local usersinformation to local users

More Opportunities for More Opportunities for NWS Forecast Office – NWS Forecast Office –

SCO CollaborationSCO Collaboration

• Sharing information with the publicSharing information with the public

• Shared expertiseShared expertise

• Reaching local constituenciesReaching local constituencies

• Training local focal points Training local focal points

• Developing new products & servicesDeveloping new products & services

• Quality-assure data sourcesQuality-assure data sources

• Assessments / statementsAssessments / statements

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?Copyright © 2004, Board of Regents of the University of Copyright © 2004, Board of Regents of the University of

Oklahoma.Oklahoma.All Rights Reserved.All Rights Reserved.