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Transcript of Gerald Harris Planning and Strategy Development An introduction to Scenario-based Strategic...
Gerald Harris Planning and Strategy
Development
An introduction to Scenario-based Strategic Planning
Plan! Plan! What’s the plan?
Why do we plan?
“Without a vision the people will perish”
“If you don’t know where you are going it is hard to get there”
“The starting point of all achievement is a clear desire.”
“Why are we doing this?
“So you want money to do what?”
Running an organization
If only the world and running our organizations was this simple!
What we expect versus what happens
Where we intended to go
Found something better quicker
Missed it completely
Events pushed us here on the way
The uncontrollable factors in the environment and in our organizations lead to different results
How do we end up somewhere we had no intentions of going?
Political Change
Social Change
Economic Shifts
Environmental Issues
Technological
Change
Demographics
Financial MarketsNew Values
Would you have imagined? All the things we can now do based on the
internet and communications infrastructure? Nelson Mandela’s life story? The tragedy of 9/11? The rise of reality TV? Arnold Schwartzenegger as Governor of
California? People paying $2 for a bottle of water? The rise of China and India?
Can you imagine? What might come from bio-technology and
nano-technology breakthroughs? What the Chinese will do with $1trillion U.S.
dollars they need to spend? Who will immigrate to the U.S. over the next 20
years and the political impacts? The near and long term effects of global climate
change? The shape of the U.S. economy as it emerges
from the 2008-2009 credit crisis?
What is scenario planning?
Creating useful stories about the future of what you are uncertain about
Researching and understanding the drivers of change and using what you learned to create plausible futures
Testing current strategies and creating new ones in the context of possible futures
Learning Forward
The core of scenario thinking Predicting the future accurately and consistently
is a tough task. The more uncertain the factors that are shaping
the future the tougher it is. We are not entirely helpless, we can learn our
way forward and assess options. We can prepare to manage some of the larger
risk and be ready to seize some of the better opportunities.
The key steps of scenario-based strategic planning
1. Get a sense of the problem or decisions2. Ask questions about key uncertainties and
assumptions3. Gather a diverse team of key stakeholders4. Use a good process for creating multiple
scenarios5. Test current strategies, plans, ideas against the
scenarios. Think of new strategies within the context of the scenarios
6. Isolate both robust and contingent steps to take.
Core steps to creating good scenarios1. Get a clear focus question to anchor the scenarios2. Brainstorm the factors and driving forces that might
have influence3. Find a useful model or tool for organizing the key driving
forces into a structure for scenarios (matrix, relational diagrams)
4. Create the stories (logic, time scale, core arguments) using the key drivers and your model
5. Test current strategies within the context of the scenarios. Brainstorm and test new strategies.
6. Prioritize results into robust and contingent categories7. Capture a learning-forward agenda
Contact InformationContacting Gerald Harris:
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 415-350-1531
Address: 6511 Lucas Ave, Suite 8
Oakland, CA 94611
References provided upon request.
Customized assistance with strategic planning to meet the needs of your organization.