Geothermal Potential: a new assessment approach and its...

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Geothermal Potential: a new assessment approach and its application to VIGOR regions

Eugenio Trumpy1, Maarten Pluymaekers2, Jan Diederik van Wees2, Adele Manzella1, Serena Botteghi1, Federica

Caiozzi1, Raimondo Catalano3, Gianluca Gola1, Marco Doveri1, Domenico Montanari1, Salvatore Monteleone3

1 Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IGG) – National Research Council (CNR), 2 TNO, Utrecht – Holland, 3 DISTEM, Palermo University

Consiglio Nazionale delle RicercheDipartimento Terra e Ambiente

39th Course of the International School of Geophysics“Understanding Geological Systems for Geothermal Energy”(“Ettore Majorana” Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture

Erice, Sicily | 25 September – 1 October, 2012)


✔ Geothermal potential

✔ Assessment methodology

✔ Case study: the Sicily region

✔ Preliminary results

Target: VIGOR project goals are to produce new maps of the deep geothermal potential in the southern regions in order to assess where and how geothermal resource can be exploited

Summary


Assess the resources not only the quantities that could be exploited under the present economic conditions, but also the quantities not yet discovered or that might be exploited with the improved technology or under different economic conditions

➢ Government bodies

➢ Greenhouse developers

➢ Property developers

➢ Electric Power industries

➢ Investors and insurance companies

Who are the stakeholders?

What does geothermal potential mean?


➢ Geological and physical (e.g. temperature distribution, porosity, permeability,

circulation, reservoir characteristics, ...)

➢ Technological (e.g. application, efficiency, drilling, ...)

➢ Economic (e.g. value of the geothermal energy, O&M costs, the capital costs, ...)

➢ Other general (e.g. legal regulation, social constraints, national energy policy,

ecological limitation, ...)

Increasing difficulty in evaluation on large scale

Geothermal Potential:affecting Factors


Conducted by CNR, ENEA, ENEL and ENI, under Law No 896 of 1986.It resulted in maps and reports. The Geothermal Ranking was based on temperature and fluid availability

A: areas where at least one aquifer, at depth < 3 km, has temperature > 150°C

B: areas where at least one aquifer, at depth < 3 km, has temperature in the range 150 – 90 °C

C: areas where at least one aquifer, at depth < 3 km, has temperature in the range 90 – 30 °C

D: areas with only minor aquifers at depth < 3 km, temperature < 150°C

The inventory of national geothermal resources

A

B

C

D


● Methodology

● Java multi-routines

● Resource assessment of the main aquifer

for electricity, heat and power-heat

✔ VIGOR ThermoGIS cannot and is not intended to substitute geological exploration approach

✔ VIGOR ThermoGIS can be used to focus geothermal exploration

VIGOR ThermoGIS


VIGOR ThermoGIS works both in 2D and in 3D

✔ Data input is the result of a team of specialists: geologist,

hydro-geologist, geo-chemist, geophysicists, ...

✔ Volumetric method assessment

✔ Include Montecarlo calculation to incorporate the effects of

uncertainty

✔ Output maps: temperature maps @ various depth, technical

potential for power and heat applications

VIGOR ThermoGIS


Heat In Place [PJ/kmHeat In Place [PJ/km22] ]

✔ HIP is the maximum theoretically extractable heat in the reservoir

✔ H = V x ρrock

x cprock

x (Tx - T

s) x 10-15

✔ Tx = Temperature @ depth

✔ Ts = Temperature @ surface

✔ ρrock

= 2700 kg/m3

✔ cprock

= 1000 J/kg k

VIGOR ThermoGIS


Theoretical Capacity [PJ/kmTheoretical Capacity [PJ/km22] ]

✔ H = V x ρrock

x cprock

x (Tx - T

r) x 10-15

✔ Tr = T

s + 80° (e.i. Electricity from Beardsmore, 2010)

✔ TC = H x η

✔ Efficiency = η =

VIGOR ThermoGIS

T x−Ts

T x+T s+2x 273,15 Kx 0,6


Theoretical Technical Potential [MW/kmTheoretical Technical Potential [MW/km22] ]

✔ Energy

✔ Lifecycle = 30 years

✔ UR = TP/TPtheoretical

✔ TP =

✔ Theoretical UR = 100 %

VIGOR ThermoGIS

TC30 x secondsinyear

x UR=1,057 xTC xUR


Technical Potential [MW/kmTechnical Potential [MW/km22] = TPtg] = TPtg

✔ Energy


✔ UR = TP/TPtheoretical

✔ TP =

➢ Theoretical UR = 100 %

➢ From Van Wees, 2012 → UR = 33 %

VIGOR ThermoGIS


x UR=1,057 xTC xUR


Technical Potential [MW/kmTechnical Potential [MW/km22] = TPbm] = TPbm

✔ Energy


✔ UR = TP/TPtheory

✔ TP =

➢ Theoretical UR = 100 %

➢ From Van Wees, 2012 → UR = 33 %

➢ From Beardsmore, 2010 → UR = 1 %

VIGOR ThermoGIS


x UR=1,057 xTC xUR


Economic Technical Potential [MW/kmEconomic Technical Potential [MW/km22] = TPlcoe_p] = TPlcoe_p

➢ Calculated from TPtg (UR=33%)

➢ LCOE < cutoff

✔ Economic technical potential takes as input the

expected flowrate doublet system

✔ power = flowrate x cpwater

x ρwater

x (Tx – Tr) 10-9

VIGOR ThermoGIS


Economic Technical Potential [MW/kmEconomic Technical Potential [MW/km22] = TPlcoe_p] = TPlcoe_p

➢ Flowrate depends on transmissivity,transmissivity, deltadelta

pressurepressure applied at reservoir level and viscosityviscosity

➢ Specific routine redistributes the permeability

according to Montecarlo simulation

➢ Transmissivity average on drilled interval

➢ In TPlcoe_p, _p is the cumulative probability

(p=10, p=30, p=50, p=70, p=90) of expected

flowrate

VIGOR ThermoGIS


Levelized Cost Of Energy [€/MWe, €/JG]Levelized Cost Of Energy [€/MWe, €/JG]

➢ Calculated for power, district heating and direct heat

➢ Depend on:

✔ Drilling cost (depth, stimulation, pump, ...)

✔ Economic lifetime

✔ Flowrate & temperature

✔ Power surface facilities (O&M, plant investiment, …)

➢ Complementary electricity/heat sales

➢ Economic factors (inflation, interest rate on debit, tax)

VIGOR ThermoGIS


To be Matched to energy demand (?)To be Matched to energy demand (?)

➢ Knowing where and for what

➢ Checking the resource

➢ Matching the energy demand with the

potentially exploitable resources

VIGOR ThermoGIS

ThermoGIS new challengeThermoGIS new challenge


Case study: The Sicily regionCase study: The Sicily region

✔ Data input:✔ Geometric characteristic of the reservoir (top, bottom below sea

level)✔ Temperature model distribution (temperature voxet)✔ Reservoir permeability (mD)✔ Surface average temperature (°C)

✔Parameters:✔ Reservoir (e.g. rock heat capacity, rock density, water heat

capacity,..)✔ Doublet (e.g. well distance, …)✔ Application temperature production & reinjection✔ Economic (e.g. well cost scaling, O&M, fiscals,...)

VIGOR ThermoGIS

The subsurface is represented by a 3D voxetThe horizontal resolution is 1000 m on x y and vertical resolution is 100 m



Data input:

➢ Geological & hydro-geological maps

➢ Geological & hydro-geological cross-sections

➢ Seismic cross-sections

➢ Hydrocarbon wells litho-stratigraphy

➢ Literature info & data

VIGOR ThermoGIS

Reservoir geometry

CCOOVVEERR

RREESSEERRVVOOIIRR



➢ Data output: ascii file top reservoir

VIGOR ThermoGIS

Reservoir geometry



….that is the topic of the next

presentation

VIGOR ThermoGIS

Temperature distribution



Data input: Hydrocarbon wells litho-

stratigraphy, adsorption and/or

permeability test

VIGOR ThermoGIS

Reservoir permeability value

No significant dependency on

stratigraphic height and spatial

correlation

Permeability measured over a perforated

intervals of approximately 50 m



VIGOR ThermoGIS

➢ expectation curves of the log of the

permeability in a 50m vertical

intervals, based on 56 measurements

➢ Distribution of the transmissivity, built

on the base of 1000 Montecarlo

calculation


For the cells belonging to the aquifer, temperature has been used to calculate Heat In Place

VIGOR ThermoGIS

For the calculation of TC, TTP, TPtg, TPbm, TPlcoe, we discriminate the following application:

The LCOE_p has been calculated for each cell adopting a flowrate corresponding to a transmissivity in agreement with a 1000 m vertical (which P=P10, P30, P50, P70, P90)

PowerPower District heatingDistrict heating Direct heatDirect heat

Minimum Minimum temperaturetemperature

120 80 45

re-injectionre-injection 97 40 35

Economic modelEconomic model power heat heat

Threshold LCOE Threshold LCOE 200 €/MWe 9 €/GJ 9 €/GJ


Sicily temperature maps: 1, 3, 5 km depth

VIGOR ThermoGIS

1km



VIGOR ThermoGIS

1km

3km



VIGOR ThermoGIS

1km

3km

5km


Sicily technical potential map for power with binary plant

VIGOR ThermoGIS


Sicily technical potential map for District heating

VIGOR ThermoGIS


In progress:

✗ Refining geological model

✗ Improving economic assessment

✗ Verifying and analyzing the results

VIGOR ThermoGIS

VIGOR thermoGIS 2D

VIGOR thermoGIS 3D linear thermal

gradient

VIGOR thermoGIS 3D thermal model

(voxet 3D)


✔ Beardsmosre, G.R., Rybach, L., Blackwell, D., Baron, C., 2010. A protocol for estimation and mapping

the global EGS potential, July 2010 edition, 11p.

✔ Cloetingh, S., v. Wees, J.D., Ziegler, P.A., Lenkey, L., Beekman, F., Tesauro, M., Förster, A., Norden, B.,

Kaban, M., Hardebol, N., Bonté, D., Genter, A., Guillou-Frottier, L. Voorde, M.T., Sokoutis,, D.

Willingshofer, E., Cornu, T., and Worum, G., 2010. Lithosphere tectonics and thermo-mechanical

properties: An integrated modeling approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems exploration in Europe.

Earth-Science Reviews, vol. 102, p. 159-206.

✔ IPCC, 2011. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation –

Geothermal Energy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group III – Mitigation

of Climate Change, 50 p.

✔ Williams, C.F., Reed, M.J., and Mariner, R.H., 2008. A Review of Methods Applied by the U.S. Geological

Survey in the Assessment of Identified Geothermal Resources, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S.

Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2008-1296, 27 p.

References


...any simple questions?

Thank you for your attention!

Conclusions

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