Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of...

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Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Georgian Economic Outlook

Transcript of Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of...

Page 1: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgian Economic Outlook

Page 2: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Country Overview

Area 69 700 sq km

Population 4,5 mln

Life expectancy 74.5 years

Official language Georgian

Literacy 100%

Currency Lari (GEL)

GDP: 2012* US$ 15.8 billion

GDP - real growth rate 2012* 6.1%

GDP - Per Capita 2012 US$ 3,519.6

Inflation rate 2012 (average annual; e-o-p)

-0.9%; -1.4%

Public External debt to GDP 2012 27.6%

Page 3: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Liberal Reforms for Long Term Sustainable Growth

Liberal Tax Code

• Only 6 taxes left

• Significant procedural and institutional reforms

• Simplified system of tax disputes discussion

New Tax Code – radically progressive, in line with the best international practices (since 01.2011)

• Simplification of Doing Business

• Reduction of Tax Compliance burden – Simplification of Tax Administration

• Formation of Stable and Sustainable Tax environment

• Principle of “Good Faith”

• Special Treatment for Micro and Small businesses

• Fix Tax

New system – on line registration of taxpayers and payment

Customs Reform

• Simplified customs procedures

• Simplified and sharply reduced the costs connected to the foreign trade

• No quantitative restrictions (quotas) on imports and exports

• Establishment of modern Customs Clearance Zone

Page 4: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Liberal Reforms for Long Term Sustainable Growth

Modernized System of Licenses and Permits

• Number of licenses and permits reduced by 90%

• Licenses and permits are only used in the production of highly risky goods and

services, usage of natural resources and other specific activities

• Significantly simplified procedures of issuing licenses and permits

• Introduced “One-Stop-Shop” and “Silence is Consent” principles

The Reform of Technical Regulation System

• National mandatory standards system was replaced by the voluntary standards

• Declined role of state in the system of technical regulation

• One single Agency for market surveillance – Construction & Technical Inspection was

created

Privatization of State Property

• Transparent privatization policy was addressed towards attraction of foreign

investments, increase of the private sector role in country‟s economy, effective use of

country‟s resources etc

Page 5: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Economic Growth

Nominal GDP and Real Growth Nominal GDP Per Capita

Manufacturing 16.4%

Financial activities 15.0%

Hotels and Restaurants 11.8%

Construction 11.4%

Financial intermediation 10.3%

Communication 9.6%

Other social and personal service activities 8.2%

Trade 7.3%

Households 7.0%

Transport 5.9%

Fastest Growing Sectors 2012* Components of Nominal GDP 2012*

Source: GEOSTAT

3133

38674353 4101

4676

54475812

17642315

29212455 2623

32313520

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

GEL US$

Industry17,2%

Trade16,6%

Transport & Communicati

on10,6%

Agriculture8,4%

Construction7,3%

Healthcare6,0%

Real estate5,5%

Education4,9%

other23,6%

7,8

10,2

12,810,8

11,6

14,415,8

9,4%12,3%

2,3%

-3,8%

6,3%

7,2% 6,1%

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

US

$ b

illi

on

Nominal GDP GDP real growth

*Preliminary data

Page 6: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Inflation

• End of period – -1.4%

• Average annual – -0.9%

Inflation Trend 2004 - 2012

Inflation Trend 2011-2013

Inflation 2012

Monthly Inflation Trend

Source: GEOSTAT

5,7

8,29,2

9,2

10,0

1,7

7,18,5

-0,9

7,5

6,2

8,8

11,0

5,53,0

11,2

2,0

-1,4-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

Average annual End of period

2,1

2,8

0,0

-0,1

0,4

-4,0

-1,6

1,1

0,6

-0,2

0,7 0,60,50,2

-0,2

0,0

-0,9

-0,9

-0,9

0,10,8

0,0

0,1-0,3

0,3-0,3

-0,1

0,4

0,7

-0,6-1,3

0,0

-0,1

1,5

-5,0

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X

2011 2012 2013

%

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X

2011 2012 2013

%

CPI to the same month of previous year

CPI 12 months average over the previous 12 month average

Page 7: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Social Statistics

Subsistence Minimum (working age male)Subsistence Minimum, 2012

For working age male – 151,1 GEL

For average consumer – 133,8 GEL

For average family – 253,5 GEL

Source: GEOSTAT

Inequality Indicators, 2012Share of population under 60 percent of the median consumption (%)

• Georgia – 22.4%

• Urban – 17.5%

• Rural – 27.0%

Poverty Threshold, 2012

Beneficiaries of subsistence allowance – 435 961 person

Change - 6.0%

Share of population under the poverty threshold – 9.2%

Change - 0.5 points

95,8106,5

118,6127,9 128,8 134,3

157,8151,1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GE

L

Share of the Population Under

Poverty Threshold

6,4

8,4

9,9 9,7 9,2 9,7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

Page 8: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Labour Market

Unemployment Rate Monthly Salary of Employed in

State and Non-state Sectors

Average– 712.5 GEL, growth 12,0%

State Sector – 656.1 GEL, growth 11,4%

Non-state Sector – 748.6 growth 11,7%

Business Sector – 714.3 GEL, growth 14,7%

Non-business Sector - 705.9 Gel, growth 7,3%

Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Unemployment rate – 15.0%

• Employed population – 1,724.0 thousand

hired – 662.6 thousand (Growth – 4.8%)

self employed – 1,054.0 thousand (Growth – 2.8%)

• Unemployed population – 305.1 thousand

Unemployment Rate 2012 Monthly Nominal Salaries 2011

11,512,6

13,8 13,6 13,3

16,5 16,9 16,315,1 15,0

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

194249

312

481 513 539589

656

228

316

438

603 609661 670

749

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GE

L

state sector non-state sector

Page 9: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Foreign Trade

Foreign Trade 2012

Total Trade Turnover – 10,220 mln. USD (10.5% Growth)

• Export – 2,377 mln. USD (8.6% growth)

• Import – 7,842 mln. USD (11.1% growth)

• Balance – -5,465 mln. USD

Source: GEOSTAT

10 main Trade Partners 2012

1536

1260

764592 580 520 439 341 331 324

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

US

$ m

illi

on

Export Import Turnover

Foreign Trade – Turnover, Export, Import

3 353

4 611

6 444

7 797

5 634

6 935

9 247

10 220

865

936

1 232

1 495

1 134

1 677

2 189

2 377

2 488

3 675

5 212

6 302

4 500

5 257

7 058

7 842

-1 622

-2 738

-3 980

-4 806

-3 367

-3 580

-4 869

-5 465

-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000

-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Foreign Trade( US$ million)

Turnover Export Import Balance

Foreign Trade by Country Groups 2012

EU12%

CIS13%

BSEC21%

OECD20%

WTO25%

GUAM9%

Page 10: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Foreign Trade

Source: GEOSTAT

0

2000

4000

6000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

WTO (US$ million)

Export Import

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

BSEC (US$ million)

Export Import

0

2000

4000

6000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

OECD (US$ million)

Export Import

0

1000

2000

3000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CIS (US$ million)

Export Import

0

700

1 400

2 100

2 800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

EU (US$ million)

Export Import

0

500

1000

1500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GUAM (US$ million)

Export Import

Page 11: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Diversified Foreign Trade, 2012

Source: GEOSTAT

Georgian Exports by Country

Georgian Imports by Commodity GroupGeorgian Exports by Commodity Group

24,7%

11,0%

5,8%

3,7%3,5%3,4%2,7%

2,5%2,3%

2,2%

38,3%

Motor cars

Ferro-alloys

Chemical fertilizers

Gold

Nuts

Ethyl Alcohol, spirits

Wine

Mineral waters

Copper ores

Wheat

Other products

26,4%

11,0%

9,5%7,0%

6,0%

4,4%

2,9%

2,6%2,5%

2,2%

25,4%

Azerbaijan

Armenia

USA

Ukraine

Turkey

Canada

Bulgaria

Kazakhstan

Belgium

Italy

Others

Georgian Imports by Country

17,8%

8,1%

7,6%

7,2%

6,9%6,0%

4,0%3,5%

3,5%

3,3%

32,2%Turkey

Azerbaijan

Ukraine

China

Germany

Russia

Japan

Bulgaria

Italy

Romania

Others

12,1%

8,5%

3,2%

3,1%

3,0%1,5%1,3%1,2%1,2%1,1%

63,9%

Petroleum

Motor cars

Petroleum gases

Wheat

Medicaments

Telephone sets

Data processing machines

Metals

Cigars and cigarettes

Electrical transformers

Others

Page 12: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Trade Policy

• Free Trade Regime – with CIS countries and Turkey (since 2008)

• Most Favored Nation Regime (MFN) – with World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries

• Preferential Regime (GSP) – with USA, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Norway

• Preferential Regime (GSP+) – with EU (7200 items) since 2005

Negotiation with the EU on Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) is ongoing

Competitive Trade Regimes

• Low import tariffs

• Few export/import licenses and permits

• No quantitative restrictions on import and export

• No customs tariff on export and re-export

• No VAT on export

• Simplified export and import procedures

Main Features of Georgian Trade Policy

Georgia has bilateral treaties on investment

promotion and protection with 32 countries

Georgia has concluded double taxation

treaties with 42 countries

Page 13: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Foreign Direct Investments

FDI inflows

FDI by Countries

FDI 2012 – 911,6 mln. USD (decline – 18,4%)

FDI 2011 – 1,117.2 mln. USD (growth - 37.2%)

FDI by Sectors 2012

2011 2012

Netherlands 22% Germany 15,2%

Azerbaijan 12% United Kingdom 10,3%

Denmark 9% Turkey 8,9%

International Organizations 9% International Organizations 7,0%

Turkey 7% Azerbaijan 6,5%

Russia 5% Luxemburg 4,6%

United Kingdom 5% Saudi Arabia 4,3%

Czech Rep. 4% Cyprus 4,2%

Luxemburg 4% China 4,0%

Virgin Islands, British 4% Netherlands 3,9%

Subtotal 85% Subtotal 69%

Other 15% Other 31%

Total 100% Total 100%Source: GEOSTAT

450 1190 2015 1564 658 814 1117 912

7,0

15,3

19,8

12,2

6,1 7,0 7,75,8

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

US

$ m

illi

on

FDI FDI share in GDP (%)

19,7%

19,5%

18,4%

17,8%

8,0%

4,6%

4,4%1,9%

1,9%

1,8%1,4%0,5%

Energy sector

Other sectors

Manufacturing

Financial sector

Transport and Communication

Construction

Real estate

Hotels and Restaurants

Healthcare

Agriculture

Consulting

Mining

Page 14: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Investment Policy

Attraction of FDI – one of the main priorities‟ of Government of Georgia

Policy, facilitating FDI

• Equal treatment for local and foreign investments

• Dramatically simplified regulations

• Favorable tax regimes

Free Industrial Zones

The most liberal tax regime & simplified procedures

Free Tourist Zones

Liberal tax regime

IT Zones

Liberal tax regime

Page 15: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Fiscal and Monetary Performance

Source: National Bank of Georgia Source: National Bank of Georgia

NBG‟s Gross FX Reserves

Source: National Bank of Georgia

Tax Revenue Performance Exchange Rate Evolution

1,921,81 1,78

1,671,49

1,671,78

1,69 1,65

2,382,26 2,23 2,29

2,192,33 2,36 2,35

2,12

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GEL/USD GEL/EURO

5 5

18

4 9

17

5 4

21

6 3

89

7 0

58

4 5

42

4 1

62

4 5

92

5 8

02

6 3

11

28,9

27,3

26,1 26,2

27,0

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

GE

L. m

ln

Budget Revenue Taxes Revenues as a % of GDP (RHS)

2 4

13

2 5

19 2 7

18

2 8

38

2 7

42

2 7

59

2 7

82

2 8

13

2 7

55

2 8

62

2 7

80

2 8

18

2 8

40

2 8

57

2 8

17

2 7

98

2 7

93

2 7

81

2 8

07

2 9

44

2 9

15

2 8

49

2 8

41

2 8

73

2 9

21

2 9

60

2 9

41

2 9

68

3 0

38

2 9

82

3 0

49

3 0

95

1 500

1 800

2 100

2 400

2 700

3 000

3 300

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII

2011 2012 2013

US$

mln

Page 16: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Tax Policy

Reduced number of taxes from 21 to 6 (2004-2008)

Reduced tax rates

Taxes/Rates

• Personal Income Tax – 20%

• Corporate Income Tax – 15%

• VAT – 18%

• Excise Tax – Varies

• Import Tax – 0%, 5% or 12%

• Property tax – 1% on the self-assessed value of property

Special/preferential tax treatment for Micro and Small Enterprises

• Micro Business (turnover no more 30 000 GEL) – exempted from taxes

• Small Business (turnover no more 100 000 GEL) – pays 3% or 5% of taxed income

Page 17: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Current Account Balance

Current Account Balance

Source: National Bank of Georgia

180,0 413,9 359,0 523,9 688,5 1060,4967,5 1098,5 1328,7

1 402,0

-383,7 -354,4-709,7

-1175,5

-2009,4

-2813,0

-1133,9 -1192,7-1840,2 -1817,0

-5000,0

-4000,0

-3000,0

-2000,0

-1000,0

0,0

1000,0

2000,0

3000,0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US

$.

mln

Goods Services Income, net Transfers, net Current Account

-383,7 -354,4 -709,7-1175,5

-2009,4

-2813,0

-1133,9 -1192,7-1840,2 -1817,0

351,2478,2

735,2 1504,9

2291,9

2875,8

1532,81217,4

2245,11757,2

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-4000,0

-3000,0

-2000,0

-1000,0

0,0

1000,0

2000,0

3000,0

4000,0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

US

$.

mln

CAD Total Private Capital Inflow (TPCI) CAD as a % of GDP

Page 18: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Public External Debt

Public External Debt, 2012 – 3,997.3 US$ mln

PED breakdown by origin (million USD)

Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia

Share of Public External Debt in GDP

Public External Debt

Long-term external funding boosting the

economy in short and long-term future

Source: MOF

Total 3997,3 Armenia 15,3

Multilateral 2690,5 Uzbekistan 0,3

WB-IDA 1293,2 Ukraine 0,3

WB-IBRD 349,6 Kazakhstan 27,8

IFAD 24,5 China 4,8

IMF 384,2 Japan 84,8

EBRD 99,8 Kuwait 23,6

European Investment

Bank (EIB) 114,7Netherlands

3,9

Bilateral 2690,5 United States 32,1

Austria 8,6 France 51,6

Azerbaijan 13,0 Government Bonds 564,7

Turkmenistan 0,2 Eurobonds 564,8

Turkey 24,8 External Guaranteed 3,1

Iran 10,1 Germany 3,1

Russia Federation 106,3 IMF 359,8

1592 1502 1461 1541

2226

2694

32843608

3997

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

US

$.

mln

External Debt Change, %

34,5

26,8

21,116,8

23,5

31,733,6

28,8 27,6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

Page 19: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Dynamics of Brussels Pledge ($4.5 billion) Implementation

Commitments by SectorsBrussels Pledge Update - Public &

Estimated Private Sectors

Commitments (signed) so far by

Donors, Public Sector Operations

Implementation/disbursement shall last until 2015, providing

low-cost stimulus to the economy and allowing to retain

policy/fiscal space.

Direct Budget Support

21%

IDPs6%

Transport Infrastructure

17%

Energy Infrastructure

12%

Urban and Municipal

Infrastructure15%

Private Sector19%

Agriculture and other

10%

ADB18%

WB20%

Germany8%

USG & EC33%

EBRD6%

EIB5%

Japan6%

Other4%

DISBURSED $2.5 Billion

PLEDGED & COMMITTED $4.5 Billion

Page 20: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

• Entirely private owned since 1996

• No restrictions on foreign ownership of banks

Robust Banking Sector

Source: National Bank of Georgia

In 2013 Georgia‟s banking sector is represented by 20 commercial banks:

• Foreign capital performance in equity – 15 banks

• Branch of foreign bank – 3 banks

Page 21: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Banking Performance

Deposits and loans in 2012

Deposits – 8 203,4 mln.GEL

o National currency – 2 967,9 mln. GEL

o Foreign currency – 5 235,5 mln. GEL

Growth – by 11.6%

Loan – 8 808,2 mln.GEL

o Sectors – 4 757,6 mln. GEL

o Households – 3 614,6 mln. GEL

Growth – 12.9%

FDI in Financial Sector

In 2012 FDI in financial sector - 162.6 mln. USD

17.8% of total FDI

Source: National Bank of Georgia

Deposits and Loans 2004-2012

FDI in Financial Sector

983

1538

2328

3511

3845

417

4 5818 7

352

8203

948

1736

2704

4632 5

793

6060

6329

7803 8808

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

mln

. G

EL

Deposits Loans

157,7 10,9 49,7

107,4

167,7 162,6

7,8

0,7

7,5

13,215,0

17,8

0

5

10

15

20

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

US

$ m

ln

FDI in Financial Sector Percent of total FDI

Page 22: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Tourism

Arrivals of non-resident visitors

Tourism sector is characterized with growing tendency during last years

• In 2012, number of visitors to Georgia amounted to 4 428 221 persons and increased by 56.9%

compared to the same period of the previous year

Source: Georgian National Tourism Administration

Country 2011 2012

EUROPE 2 695 235 4 225 635

AMERICAS 29 286 33 898

EAST ASIA/PACIFIC 85 686 123 987

MIDDLE EAST 5 663 17 141

AFRICA 4 229 7 110

OTHERS 2 264 20 450

Total 2 822 363 4 421 111

368,3560

763,21051,7

1290,1 1500,02031,7

2822,4

4428,2

17,5%

52,0%

36,3% 37,8%

22,7% 16,3%

35,4%38,9%

56,9%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

tho

usa

nd

per

son

Arrivals Growth (%)

Page 23: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Enterprises Statistics

Turnover (2006 - 2012)

Output (2006 - 2012)

In 2012

Turnover – 42 048.0 mln. GEL (increased by 14.5%)

Output – 23 096.0 mln. GEL (increased by 20%)

Salaries – 714.3 GEL

Employment – 534 397 persons

Source: GEOSTAT

13,1 17,5 19,7 20,3 24,4 36,7 42,0

29,934,0

12,03,3

20,2

50,5

14,5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

მლრდ

. ლარი

ბრუნვა ცვლილება წინა წელთან (%)

7,4 9,6 10,2 11,0 13,3 19,2 23,1

27,030,1

6,3 7,4

20,9

44,6

20,0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

bil

lio

n G

EL

Output Change (%)

Page 24: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Industry

In 2012

• Turnover – 7 553.6 mln.GEL (increased by 4.4%)

• Output – 6,868.3 mln.GEL (increased by 6.8%)

Industry in GDP

Growth – 7,6%

• Manufacturing – 2 360.6 mln. GEL (10.5%)

• Processing of products by households – 640.4 mln. GEL

(2.8%)

• Electricity, gas and water supply – 628.3 mln. GEL (2.8%)

• Mining and Quarrying – 228.3 mln. GEL (1.0%)

Output (2006 – 2012)

Turnover (2006 - 2012)

Source: GEOSTAT

26,1

35,1

6,3

-5,0

25,730,5

4,4

-10-50510152025303540

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

mln

. G

EL

Turnover Change (%)

21,6

28,9

6,7

-0,6

27,732,6

6,8

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0,0

1000,0

2000,0

3000,0

4000,0

5000,0

6000,0

7000,0

8000,0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

mln

. G

EL

Turnover Change (%)

Page 25: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Privatization

Privatization 2003-2012

Due to the accelerated privatization policy all main state owned property has

been privatized during last years

In 2003-2012

Privatized Items – 1 198 units

Total Amount – 80.2 mln GEL

761

267

776

441

595654

472

297

1494

1198

31 73

412527

620 602

211 196 245

80

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Items Income (mln. GEL)

Page 26: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Doing Business 2014” (WB & IFC) – 8th

place (12th place in 2012)

Top Improver since 2005 in EE&CA and

globally with 35 institutional reforms

Georgia is among TOP 10 countries in following

areas:

• Registering Property - 1st place

• Dealing with Construction Permits – 2nd place

• Getting Credit – 3rd place

• Starting a Business – 8th place

Due to the implemented reforms Georgia in the

recent years, in 2014 Georgia has improved in 3

areas , measured by Doing Business

Doing Business

• Paying Taxes

• Trading Across Borders

• Resolving Insolvency

112

92

70

69

37

24

22

17

8

3

2

1

Ukraine

Russia

Azerbaijan

Turkey

Armenia

Latvia

Estonia

Lithuania

Georgia

New Zealand

Hong Kong

Singapure

up from 112th in 2006

Page 27: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Index of Economic Freedom 2013” (Heritage

Foundation) – 21st place – Moderately Free

• 11st place in Europe (out of 43 countries in region)

Improved scores in:• Property Rights – up by 5 points

• Freedom from Corruption – up by 3 points

• Fiscal Freedom - up by 0.3 points

• Government Spending – up by 13.1 points

• Business Freedom – up by 3.7 points

• Investment Freedom – up by 5 points

Index of Economic Freedom

“Index of Economic Freedom 2012” (Fraser

Institute) – 42nd place (76th place in 2003)

Improved scores in:

• Legal System & Property rights – 66 (up by 20 steps)

• Freedom to Trade Internationally – 11 (up by 13

steps)

• Regulation – 32 (up by 24 steps)

Index of Economic Freedom

1

2

3

14

28

36

42

48

64

95

116

122

Hong Kong

Singapore

New Zealand

Estonia

Lithuania

Romania

Georgia

Poland

Hungary

Russia

Azerbaijan

Ukrain

up from 76th in 2003

161

139

88

69

55

38

22

21

14

3

2

1

Ukraine

Russia

Azerbaijan

Turkey

Latvia

Armenia

Lithuania

Georgia

Estonia

Australia

Singapure

Hong Kong

up from 123rd in 1996

Page 28: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Corruption Perception Index 2012”

(Transparency International) – 51st place (up from

85th in 2002)

Improved positions because of:

• Highly effective reforms in earning public

confidence

• Highly effective steps in improving country‟s

international image

• Fallen of petty corruption

Corruption Perception Index

Global Corruption Barometer 2010 (Transparency International)

• 1st place in the world in public perception of decrease of corruption

78% of surveyed – corruption level has decreased

• 2nd place in public perception of effectiveness of Government reforms in the fight

against corruption

144

139

133

105

51

54

54

48

32

1

1

1

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Russia

Armenia

Georgia

Turkey

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

New Zealand

Finland

Denmark

up from 85th in 2002

Page 29: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Global Enabling Trade Index 2012” (World

Economic Forum) – 38th place (amongst 32

countries)

• Market Access – 9th position

• Border Administration – 33rd position

• Transport and Communication Infrastructure –

66th position

• Business environment – 50th position

Global Enabling Trade, 2012

112

86

81

62

59

52

45

38

26

1

Russia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Turkey

Armenia

Latvia

Lithuania

Georgia

Estonia

Singapure

Paying Taxes – the Global Picture‟s „Ease of

Paying Taxes“ – 39th place out of 183 countries

(up from 61 in 2011)

“Best Countries for Business 2012” (Forbes) - 50th

place out of 141 countries (up from 50th place in

2010 amongst 134 countries)

improved position because of

• Technology component

• Energy sector

Page 30: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Bertelsmann Transformation 2012”

(Bertelsmann Foundation)Status Index, 2012

Management Index, 2012

99

98

74

76

53

17

11

5

3

1

Russia

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Ukraine

Georgia

Turkey

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Taiwan

85

66

60

58

55

20

13

7

5

1

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Russia

Georgia

Ukraine

Turkey

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Czech Republic

• Status Index – 58th place (up from 79th in

2003)

• Management Index – 53rd place (up from

95th place in 2003)

Page 31: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Fitch Ratings 2013”

• Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer

Default Ratings (IDRs) – “BB-"

(In 2010 - “B+” )

• Short-term foreign currency IDR – “B”

• Country Ceiling – “BB”

• Unsecured debt - “BB-“

(In 2010 - “B+”)

• Outlook - Stable

“Standard and Poor‟s Ratings 2011”

• Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default

Rating (IDR) – “BB-" upgraded from “B+”

• Short-Term Sovereign credit ratings – „B‟.

• Transfer & Convertibility assessment – „BB‟

• Outlook - Stable

“Moody's Investors Service 2012”

• Not-Prime foreign and local currency issuer rating

(affirmed) – Ba3

• Outlook - Stable

Georgia‟s Sovereign Ratings

Page 32: Georgian Economic Outlook · 2013-11-14 · Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Country Overview Area 69 700 sq km Population 4,5 mln Life expectancy 74.5 years

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Useful Links