George Mason University & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere ... · • Re-forecast period 1999-2015...
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The North American Mul2-Model Ensemble: Seasonal to Subseasonal Predic2ons Kathy Pegion George Mason University & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
Transcript of George Mason University & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere ... · • Re-forecast period 1999-2015...
TheNorthAmericanMul2-ModelEnsemble:SeasonaltoSubseasonalPredic2ons
KathyPegion
GeorgeMasonUniversity&CenterforOcean-Land-AtmosphereStudies
7/21/2014 Climate Prediction Center - NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ 1/1
www.nws.noaa.gov
Home Site Map News Organization Search GoHOME > NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies
Welcome to the National Multi-Model Ensemble home!
Data and Current Forecasts
3-month mean spatial anomalies
1-month mean spatial anomalies
Niño3.4 Plumes
International MME
Experimental: Probability forecasts
Preview: additional variables
Real-time verification (preliminary)
User's Guide (new!)
NMME Realtime Forecasts ArchiveNMME Phase-I Hindcast Data
About the NMME
Description of the NMME
Phase-I Forecast Models
CTB Activities & Documents
Join the NMME mailing list
For additional information, contact Qin Zhang ([email protected]) or Emily Becker
NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: March 12, 2012
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
UniversityofMiamiBenP.Kirtman,DughongMin,JohnnaM.Infan7GMU/COLAJamesL.KinterIII,DanielA.PaolinoNCEPQinZhang,HuugvandenDool,SuranjanaSaha,MalaquiasPenaMendez,EmilyBecker,PeitaoPeng,PatrickTripp,JinHuangIRIDavidG.DeWiM(nowatNCEP),MichaelK.TippeM,AnthonyG.Barnston,GFDLShuhuaLi,AnthonyRosa7,GabeVecchiNASA/GMAOSiegfriedD.Schubert,MicheleRienecker,MaxSuarez,ZhaoE.Li,JelenaMarshak,Young-KwonLimNCARJosephTribbiaNOAA/ESRLKathleenPegion(nowatCOLA/GMU)EnvironmentCanadaWilliamJ.Merryfield,BertrandDenisPrincetonEricF.Wood
What is the NMME?
PredictabilityResearch
Real-2mePredic2ons
What is the NMME? • Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts
– Model Updates (FLOR, CCSM4, CESM, CMC) • Coordinated Predictability Research
– Benefits of MM, Model Combinations, Inform Model Development and Applications
• Development & Evaluation of a Subseasonal protocol – Subseasonal Demonstration Experiment – Subseasonal Exploratory Workshop – Proposal to develop a subseasonal NMME
• Data distribution – Supporting Prediction/Predictability Research – Supporting Forecast Applications
7/21/2014 Climate Prediction Center - NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ 1/1
www.nws.noaa.gov
Home Site Map News Organization Search GoHOME > NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies
Welcome to the National Multi-Model Ensemble home!
Data and Current Forecasts
3-month mean spatial anomalies
1-month mean spatial anomalies
Niño3.4 Plumes
International MME
Experimental: Probability forecasts
Preview: additional variables
Real-time verification (preliminary)
User's Guide (new!)
NMME Realtime Forecasts ArchiveNMME Phase-I Hindcast Data
About the NMME
Description of the NMME
Phase-I Forecast Models
CTB Activities & Documents
Join the NMME mailing list
For additional information, contact Qin Zhang ([email protected]) or Emily Becker
NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: March 12, 2012
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts
Model Diversity is Enhancing Quality
EmilyBecker(NCEP)
Brier Skill Score for T2m Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropics Land (23N-75N)
BrierSkillScoreforNino3.4
EmilyBecker(NCEP)
Mean Squared Error Sign Test
TimDelSole(GMU/COLA)
IRIDataLibrary• Monthlydata• AllModels• Subsetofvariables(8)
2mtemperaturePrecipita7onSSTTminTmaxZ200Soilmoisturerunoff
hLp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/
Moreinforma2on
ASubseasonalDemonstra2onExperimentLimitedscopere-forecastexperimentDemonstratePotenQalforMJOPredicQonwithNMME1. 1999-20122. Ini7aliza7onDates:Novemberonlyonthe2nd,7th,12th,17th,22th,
27th,followingtheCFSv2rrdates
3. 45-days
4. Oceanandatmosphereini7alized;landini7aliza7onisstronglyencouraged,butnotrequired
5. Themethodofini7aliza7onislejuptothemodelinggroup6. Number&methodofperturba7ons/ensemblemembersislejuptothe
modelinggroup(atleast3recommended).7. Dailymeans:SST,U200,U850,OLR,Precip,MSLP,Z200
ModelsNCEP-CFSv2NASA-GMAOU.Miami/NCAR-CCSM4DataCOLAmadeavailableviajptoNMMEsubseasonalteamMetricsRMMindexskill&predictability
AsubseasonalNMMEcantakeadvantageofdifferingmodelskillatdifferentlead-2mes
LeadTime(days)
AsubseasonalNMMEbeLerrepresentstherela2onshipbetweenensemblespread&error
LeadTime(days)
AsubseasonalNMMEcanprovideunderstandingofpredictabilitylimits
LeadTime(days)
PerfectModelSkill
ActualSkill
1. Thereisaevidenceforapoten7albenefitforsubseasonalNMME
2. Thisisaverylimitedexperiment,sothebenefitcannotbe
rigorouslyassessed.3. Wehavebarelyscratchedthesurfacebylookingatonesource
ofpredictability.
4. Needtoassessbenefitforothersourcesofpredictability/phenomena,opera7onalforecas7ng,andapplica7ons.
ThiswillrequireamoresubstanQalre-forecastexperiment
designedtolooklikeanoperaQonalforecastsystem
NMMESubseasonalExploratoryWorkshop
Mee2ngObjec2ves• Assesscurrentopera7onalsub-seasonalpredic7onprac7ceandskillandongoingsub-
seasonalsystemdevelopmentatNCEPandothercentersna7onallyandinterna7onally.
• Assessthesourcesofsub-seasonalpredictabilitybasedonbroadresearchandanalysisincludingthatofNMMEdata.
• Improveunderstandingofopera7onalrequirementstohelpassesssub-seasonalpredic7onsystemrequirementsandfeasibilitycharacteris7cs.
• Iden7fyresearchpriori7es,pathwaysandexperimentstohelpdesignanNMMEsub-seasonalforecastsystem.
• CoordinatewithWCRP/WWRPS2SPredic7onProjectefforts.
OutcomeSubseasonalNMMEre-forecastandreal-7meforecastprotocol
hLp://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/CTB/Documents/Protocol_Subseasonal_NMME.pdf
ImportantaspectsofProtocol
• Re-forecastandforecastmodelmustbethesame• Coupledocn-atmoratm-only• Re-forecastperiod1999-2015• Minimumof4ensemblemembers• Minimum32-dayforecasts(45preferred)• Onceaweekini7aliza7on• Atm,ocean(ifapplicable),andlandmustbeini7alized• 19dailyfields+tmax&tminwillbearchived• 6dailyfieldswillbeprovidedtoNCEPby5pmETeveryWed
• Allensemblemembersmustbeprovided• Totalfieldsmustbeprovided
What is the NMME?
PredictabilityResearch
Real-2mePredic2ons
