Geological Risk Assessment

7/17/2019 Geological Risk Assessment

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1Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE Third Countrie

GeoInfor

LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026

Input for Geological Risk Assessment

Johannes Klein & Jaana Jarva

April 2008, St. Petersburg


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2Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Risk (technical approach)

Risk = Hazard x Consequence

xposure ! "ulnera#ilit$

The probability of harful !onse"uen!es, or e#pe!te$ losses

%$eaths, inuries, property, livelihoo$s, e!onoi! a!tivity

$isrupte$ or environent $aage$' resulting fro

intera!tions bet(een natural or huan)in$u!e$ ha*ar$s an$

vulnerable !on$itions.

+onventionally ris is e#presse$ by the notation

-is /a*ar$s # ulnerability.

Soe $is!iplines also in!lu$e the !on!ept of e#posure to

refer parti!ularly to the physi!al aspe!ts of vulnerability.&'(IS)R 200*+


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,Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Input for the Risk Components

/a*ar$3 Type of ha*ar$ %geologi!al instability, erosion, ra$on, floo$4.'

3 Probability of o!!urren!e

3 5#tent an$ agnitu$e

5#posure

36o. of people affe!te$36o. of buil$ings affe!te$

3 7ength of affe!te$ net(or infrastru!ture %roa$s, pipelines, (atersupply4'

ulnerability

3 Sensitivity

3 alue


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*Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


xamples for "ulnera#ilit$

uil$ings9 vulnerability %sensitivity' to geologi!al instabilitiesVulnerability = construction type + age of building + height of

building + maintenance + single house or row of houses

-oa$ net(or9s vulnerability to geologi!al instabilities

Vulnerability = length + importance (+condition)

People9s vulnerability to -a$on

Vulnerability = construction type of building + drinking water

source & consumption or radon in air


5/22-Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Input data

:eologi!al /a*ar$s3 Probability, 5#tent, ;agnitu$e

5#posure an$ ulnerability

3 +a$astral $ata %no. & type of houses, infrastru!ture'3 Population $ensity

3

S+ ;ineral>


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LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


%a#le of Geological Risks and "ulnera#ilit$Geological

Hazard

Hazard

&arameter

xposed

lement

xposure "ulnera#ilit$ &arameters

and Indexes

xplanatio

n

'ources

Radon Rdon.on.entrtion inir o$er thresho"d

ou"tion ou"tion inrdon ronere

(o1 of eo"e inunrote.ted3houses

Foundtiont4es5S"%on%rde8house 9ithse:ent8 .r9"s.e

;uoti"inen8 e"=inen8?@@,5 Rdon Ris>Min usinIndoor Monitorin)t8 Indoor in 9ter

o$er thresho"d

ou"tion eo"e usindrin>in9ter 9ith

rdon.on.entrtion o$erthresho"d

in 9ter

)i"4 drin>in9ter.onsu:tion5


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LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Radon Risk ap

) 1

ery lo( 2

7o( ?

;e$iu @

/igh

-a$on hazardfore!ast%taen fro the

ra$on)ha*ar$ ap'

uil$ings9 vulnerability%buil$ing9s fun!tion & no.

of floors'

ery lo( 1

7o( 2

;e$iu ?

/igh @

ery high

B Radon Risk


8/22BJohnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


uildings* "ulnera#ilit$ (first estimates)


9/22@Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Radon Risk ap


10/22?0Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


+eighting of hazards , the -elphi method

H In$estitions of oinions nd

rtins fro: hrd nd sti"

"nnin eAerts on i:ortn.e

of .ertin hrd on Euroen

s."eH Three round $ere

esti:tion

H


11/22??Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

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ulti.hazard (multi.risk) mapping

Suing up of single ha*ar$ gri$ layers C !lassifi!ation ofulti)ha*ar$s into five !lasses %very high, high, e$iu, lo(,

very lo('

Dsing the etho$ of suing up the gri$s aes it possible to

loo ba!(ar$s (hat is the $ata behin$ the "ualitative ris

assessent

See siplifie$ e#aple fro Einlan$ use$ to !lassify !onstru!tion

suitability on the regional s!ale


12/22?2Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Construction suita#ilit$ data (simplified

example from /inland)

All $ata is !onverte$ to 2#2 etre gri$

Soil types have !lasses 1)20, an$ other apping eleents have

!lasses ?0)F0

3 F !lay, F0 (ater

Slope steepness have !lasses 100)@00

3 G H 100, C ?0 H @00

Thi!ness of fine)graine$ se$ients have !lasses 1000)000

3 G 2, 1000, C 2 000


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?,Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Construction suita#ilit$ data (0)

5n$ result -aster ap (here Iuaternary geologi!al apping$ata slope steepness thi!ness of fine)graine$ se$ients are

sue$ up

+o$ing of gri$s

31000 ) 000 thi!ness

3100 ) @00 slope steepness

31 ) 1F soil type

5#aple :ri$)!o$e 3106

3 thi!ness of fine)graine$ se$ients 3000% @,)1? '

3 slope steepness 100% GH'

3 soil type 6% !lay'


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?*Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor



15/22

?-Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


1R21''

;ulti)-is 7an$ Dse ;anageent Support Syste

;ap an$ s!enario sele!tion

/a*ar$ analysis

5#pose$ eleents analysis

ulnerability analysis ;ultiple !riteria ris evaluation

+oping !apa!ity analysis


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?6Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Risk factors3 hazards (4)

:eologi!al instability3 Iuaternary $eposits

3 5ngineering geology Surfa!e, 10 eters level, 20 eters level

7ithologi!al groups %san$, gravel, peat et!.' C properties thi!ness

Sub)groups of ro!s

3 /y$rogeologi!al properties :roun$(ater level in $ifferent a"uifers %!hanges'

7o!ation of ain a"uifers

Pie*oetri! heights

36eote!toni!s Lones %!al!ulate$ a!!or$ing to observe$ events'

3 Paleovalleys Pre)"uaternary reliefs


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?7Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor



-a$on ha*ar$3 @ !lasses %very lo(, lo(, e$iu, high'

6ature gas generation

3 Areas (ith no(n natural gas generation

3 Areas re!oen$e$ to be stu$ie$ further

3 Areas (ith burie$ hy$rologi!al systes %laes, river !hannels, also

artifi!ial fore$ areas'

3 :as !olle!tor (ells %ris anageent' %point $ata'

3 :as generation events %no(n ris' %point $ata'


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?BJohnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor



6ature gas generation %@ !lasses>'3 Areas (ith no(n ris

3 Areas (here further stu$ies are nee$e$

3 Areas (ith burie$ hy$rologi!al systes %natural an$ artifi!ial'

3 Areas (ith anage$ ris

Karst forations

3 7o!ation

Surfa!e erosion3 -elevant $o!uents, $atasets (ill be provi$e$ by S+ ;ineral


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?@Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Risk factors3 6ulnera#ilit$ (7)

;aster plan3 +urrent situation of lan$ use

3 7an$ use in 201

3 7an$ use in 202

uil$ings

3 Dse of buil$ing36uber of floors

3 Type of buil$ing

Population $ensity %three options'

36uber of registere$ resi$ents in buil$ings3 5stiations base$ on type of buil$ing

3 Mistribution of population $ensity in the !ity


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LIFE%Third Countrie

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/urther 8ork

The attribute inforation of sele!te$ .shp)files (ill be translate$to 5nglish

5nglish translations (ill be $elivere$ by S+ ;ineral to :TK

either as separate tables or as .shp)files (ithout any +yrilli!

(riting by the en$ of ;ay

:TK (ill first ae proposal for !lassifi!ation of geologi!

instability

;ulti)ha*ar$ aps> Neighting of ha*ar$sO Melphi)etho$>


21/22

2?Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$

LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


Rele6ance of geological risks

-esults fro "uestionnaire $evelope$ in Tas 2 The ost iportant ris a!!or$ing to four intervie(e$ groups

flooding caused by groundwater


22/22


LIFE%Third Countrie

GeoInfor


-iscussion

Mifferen!e bet(een options of e#perts an$ people Prootion nee$e$

Geological Risk Assessment

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