Geojit Financial Services Ltd. Padivattom, Kochi August 5, 2019...
Transcript of Geojit Financial Services Ltd. Padivattom, Kochi August 5, 2019...
Evening RoundupAugust 5, 2019
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI @ 19:30 IST
A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy
Geojit Financial Services Ltd.
34/659-P, Civil Line Road,
Padivattom, Kochi – 682024
Day So Far
• Global financial markets were grappled with worries emerging from fresh US tariff
threat and retaliatory move from China on in the form of halt of American
agricultural products. A massive sell off has been witnessed in global equities.
Equity Indices ranging from Asia to Europe tumbled down alongside with US equity
futures. On currency front, Dollar Index marked third consecutive days of losses
from its two year high. Back home, INR fall past 70.50 mark against Dollar on the
back drop of global trade worries and over political developments in Kashmir.
• Bullion in international market propped up on escalating trade tensions and losing
risk appetite. Weakness in dollar also weighed on prices as well. Gold in London
spot market mounted to six year peak and seen trading above $1455 an Ounce.
Meanwhile, silver in the same platform gained more than a percent, tracking gold.
In the meantime, precious metals in MCX platform got an additional gain owing to
Indian Rupee weakness.
• Crude oil prices remained under pressure on demand concerns from escalating
trade tensions. Both benchmarks, WTI and Brent, slipped lower more than a
percent. While Crude oil in MCX platform restricted its losses on fading domestic
currency against Dollar. Meanwhile Natural gas prices reeled under selling pressure
on lower cooling demand in the US.
• London base metals too remained under pressure on renewed trade worries. But a
contradictory move has been seen in Nickel prices on LME, which continued gains
and soared more than 3 percent on future supply worries from Indonesia.
Meanwhile, LME Copper hit its lowest level more than two years. While, MCX base
metals inched up on Indian Rupee weakness.
MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES
Last updated at 16:00 IST
GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES
LME STOCKRATIOS
Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious Day
CloseVol
Gold36150 1.61 36192 36250 36020 35577 300
Silver 42408 2.52 41519 42493 41519 41364 17132
Crude Oil 3897 0.15 3870 3909 3861 3891 78135
Natural Gas 148.2 -0.13 148.1 148.9 146 148.4 11631
Copper 436.3 0.7 432.3 437.4 432.3 433.25 8599
Nickel 1062.7 3.92 1033 1067 1033 1022.6 37684
Lead 152.45 0.63 151.65 153.25 151.65 151.5 3439
Zinc188.9 0.24 188.95 190.1 188.6 188.45 7175
Aluminium 140.3 0.47 139.4 140.4 139.4 139.65 940
Commodity Rate % Chg
Gold ($/oz)1461.121 1.43
Silver (c/oz) 16.5018 1.8
Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 55.24 -0.75
Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.091 -1.41
LME Copper ($/T)5705 -0.3
LME Nickel ($/T) 14930 3.07
LME Lead ($/T) 1947 -0.31
LME Zinc ($/T)2331.5 -0.81
LME Aluminium ($/T) 1787 -0.67
Indices Rate % Chg
Dow Jones Fut 26124.0 -1.23
CAC** 5259.8 -1.85
DAX** 11694.6 -1.5
Shanghai* 2821.5 -1.62
MSCI Asia Pacific index 155.6 -1.36
Baltic Dry index 1788 -1.325
Dollar index 97.79 -0.29
Ratio5 Days Monthly 90 Days
Daily High Low High Low High Low
Gold Silver ratio85.22 86.01 83.06 92.75 83.06 92.75 83.06
Gold Crude ratio147.17 147.17 136.11 147.17 131.97 147.17 108.24
Lead Zinc ratio0.81 0.81 0.80 0.82 0.77 0.82 0.65
Steel Nickel ratio37.32 37.32 35.36 37.32 30.25 37.32 26.41
Lead Aluminium ratio1.09 1.11 1.09 1.15 1.06 1.15 0.99
85.22 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold
147.17 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold
0.81 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead
37.32 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel
1.09 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead
Net
change
Warrant
change
Tonnage
ratio
Copper-3325 3525 9.51
Aluminium-4200 -13600 25.80
Nickel-660 660 29.64
Zinc-275 -1350 37.14
Lead-50 0 11.75
ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Importance Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, August 5, 2019
6:00 JPY Low Services PMI (Jul) 51.9
13:30 EUR Low Services PMI (Jul) 53.3 53.3
19:15 USD Low Services PMI (Jul) 52.2
19:30 USD Low CB Employment Trends Index (Jul) 109.5
19:30 USD Moderate ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 55.5 55.1
19:30 USD Moderate ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul) 58.9
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
Tentative USD Low IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 56.6
19:30 USD Low JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) 7.268M 7.323M
21:30 USD Moderate FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
2:00 USD Moderate API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.024M
14:30 INR High Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00% 4.00%
14:30 INR High Interest Rate Decision 5.50% 5.75%
16:30 USD Low MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -1.40%
20:00 USD Very High Crude Oil Inventories -8.496M
20:00 USD Very High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 1.046M -0.894M
20:00 USD Very High Gasoline Inventories -1.449M -1.791M
Thursday, August 8, 2019
18:00 USD Moderate Continuing Jobless Claims 1,678K 1,699K
18:00 USD Moderate Initial Jobless Claims 215K 215K
19:30 USD Moderate Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jun) 0.40% 0.20%
19:30 USD Moderate Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.20% 0.10%
20:00 USD Moderate Natural Gas Storage 65B
Friday, August 9, 2019
5:20 JPY Moderate GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.40% 2.20%
5:20 JPY Moderate GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.10% 0.60%
13:30 USD High IEA Monthly Report
17:00 INR Low FX Reserves, USD
18:00 USD Moderate Core PPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.30% 2.30%
18:00 USD Moderate Core PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.30%
18:00 USD Moderate PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.10%
18:00 USD Moderate PPI (YoY) (Jul) 1.70% 1.70%
22:30 USD Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
BULLION
GOLD M
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
Technical Levels
R3 37470
R2 37280
R1 36730/37050
Turnaround 36200
S1 35820/35500/35125
S2 35000/34830
S3 34650
Technical Commentary
Witnessing bullish sentiments likely to be upheld in the coming session
towards the immediate prices objective of 36730, followed by 37280. But,
fall past below 36200 may grab prices lower.
Technical Levels
R3 44180
R2 43890
R1 42780/43500
Turnaround 41840
S1 41400/40760/40260
S2 39250
S3 38970/38500/3815
Technical Commentary
Ensuing buying momentum may prolong towards the upside objective of
42780 then to 43500. But, reclaiming trades below 41840 may push prices
lower.
SILVER M
MCX August
Intra Day
Near Term
NATURAL GAS
MCX August
Intra Day
Near Term
CRUDEOIL
MCX August
Intra Day
Near Term
ENERGY
Technical Levels
R3 4210/4228
R2 4150/4175
R1 4045/4110
Turnaround 3945
S1 3840/3770/3740
S2 3665
S3 3600/3530
Technical Commentary
Decisive trades above the Bollinger middle band level 3945 could lift prices
higher. Inability to sustain above 3945 may grab down prices lower to 3840
followed by 3770.
Technical Levels
R3 171.80
R2 161.50/163.20/168
R1 154.90/158.90
Turnaround 152.70
S1 145/144
S2 139
S3 135.60
Technical Commentary
Broad weakness may stretch lower in the coming session towards the
downside objective of 145, followed by 144. In the bearish picture, recouping
trades above the trend line hindrance of 152.70 could push prices higher.
Daily CRUDE OIL AUG9 26.09.2018 - 26.11.2019 (BOM)
Value
INR
Bbl
47.732
Price
INR
Bbl
Auto
3,000
3,500
4,0003,898.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
NICKEL
MCX August
Intra Day
Near Term
COPPER
MCX August
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 454.20/457.30/460
R2 448.30/451.20
R1 441.40/444.90
Turnaround 438.80
S1 434/431.70
S2 430
S3 426.70
Technical Commentary
Determined trades above the internal trend line resistance of 438.80 could
lift prices further. If not, could grab prices back to Bollinger lower band
level of 431.70 region.
Technical Levels
R3 2002/2013
R2 1093
R1 1074
Turnaround 1043
S1 1019/1003
S2 986/978/967
S3 955/938
Technical Commentary
Uninterrupted buying momentum may extend towards the immediate price
objective of 1074 followed by Fibonacci retracement objective of 1093.
However, as prices trading at over bought situation, could expect equal
plausible chance of corrective fall once prices settled below 1043.
Zinc M
MCX August
Intra Day
Near Term
Lead M
MCX August
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 196.70/197.30
R2 194.80/
R1191.90/192.70/193.
60
Turnaround 188
S1 186.40
S2 185
S3 183.40
Technical Levels
R3 161
R2 157.80/158.80
R1 154.80/156.60
Turnaround 150.90
S1 148.90
S2 147
S3 146.20
Technical Commentary
Broad weakness my persist only on significant trades below 188. Else could
anticipate a trend reversal move towards the EMA level of 191.90 then to
192.70. But, crack below 188 could dent our recovery expectation.
Technical Commentary
Trend line hurdle of 150.90 seems to be major obstacle for intraday
weakness, which if remained untouched, could call a short covering move
towards 154.80 or even higher. Conversely ,intraday selling may be seen only
below 150.90.
Alumini
MCX August
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 146.70
R2 144.20/145.80
R1 142/142.70
Turnaround 140.80
S1 139.60/138.70
S2 136.90
S3 135.50/133.90
Technical Commentary
Rise above the internal trend line resistance of 140.80 could boost prices higher
towards the upside objective of 142.70 or even more. Inability to succeed
above 140.80 could squeeze down prices lower to 138.70.
Buying
sentiment/
Bullish
Selling
sentiment/
Bearish
Neutral/
sideways
S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling
pressure.
R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter
buying pressure.
GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:
CERTIFICATION
I, Krishna prasad N.B, an employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby
certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all
of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.
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Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this
report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity
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Geojit Financial Services Limited’s Associates consists of companies such as Geojit Technologies Private Limited
(GTPL- Software Solutions provider), Geojit Credits Private Limited (GCPL- NBFC Services provider), Geojit
Investment Services Limited (GISL- Corporate Agent for Insurance products), Geojit Financial Management
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In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also
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futures covered herein at the time of publication of this report.
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He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject Commodity futures covered herein,
and they have no other material conflict in the subject Commodity at the time of publication of this report.
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any entity/ third party in connection with the Commodity futures mentioned in this report.
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of this report have no substantial ownership or financial interest over any Commodity futures mentioned in the
report.
4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:
Neither GFSL nor its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject Commodity
futures.
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