Evening Roundup03 September 2020

A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

34/659-P, Civil Line Road,

Padivattom, Kochi – 682024

Day So far

• Global equities advanced amid signs of global economic recovery and

expectation of further stimulus support from major economies. Major

equity indices across Asia to Europe continued gains, however, China’s

benchmark stock index slipped lower led by consumer firm’s stocks despite

regions service sector activity picked up for the fourth straight month.

Back home, commodities on MCX platform were seen under pressure,

mainly crude and Nickel. On currency front, dollar index seen steady,

marked third consecutive day’s gain.

• Precious metals slipped lower on recovery in US dollar coupled with rising

risk appetite owing to recent robust economic numbers. Gold in

international spot market fell near to one week low, while silver in the

same platform slipped around a percent. MCX precious metals too seen on

negative territory.

• Crude oil prices continued weakness as worries over falling US gasoline

demand and firmer dollar. Major benchmarks WTI and Brent slipped more

than 1.50 percent, while MCX Crude oil near month futures prices slipped

to near one month low. Meanwhile, Natural gas prices seen stabilizing

ahead of official inventory from US later today after volatile moves in last

few days.

• Base metals were broadly lower on easing supply worries. Industrial metals

on MCX platform slipped lower, led by nickel and copper. While, base

metal futures on Shanghai platform closed lower.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI @ 19:30 IST

MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Last updated at 16:00 IST

GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES

RATIOS

Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious

Day CloseVol

Gold50776 -0.09 50964 50964 50600 50821 5791

Silver 65230 -0.84 65838 66346 64770 65784 84

Crude Oil 2997 -2.03 3060 3060 2991 3059 23061

Natural Gas 184.7 1.09 183 185.5 180.7 182.7 69006

Copper 518.1 -0.81 522.7 523.45 516 522.35 7780

Nickel 1129 -2.19 1149.8 1150.4 1119.9 1154.3 8614

Lead 152.25 -0.1 152.75 153.15 151.05 152.4 2270

Zinc 195.65 -0.46 197.8 197.8 193.8 196.55 5735

Aluminium 145.15 -0.31 145.85 146 144.7 145.6 784

Commodity Rate % Chg

Gold ($/oz)1932.563 -0.52

Silver (c/oz) 27.0122 -1.76

Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 40.72 -1.9

Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.497 0.44

SHFE Copper (CNY/T)51730 -0.54

SHFE Nickel (CNY/T) 119150 -1.91

SHFE Lead (CNY/T) 15700 -0.92

SHFE Zinc (CNY/T)20230 -0.39

SHFE Aluminium

(CNY/T) 14420 -0.83

Indices Rate % Chg

Dow Jones Fut 29062.0 -0.1

CAC**5114.4 1.64

DAX** 13396.6 1.16

Shanghai* 3385.0 -0.58

MSCI Asia Pacific index 174.2 0.267

Baltic Dry index 1445 -1.768

Dollar index 92.94 0.1

Ratio

5 Days Monthly 90 Days

Daily High Low High Low High Low

Gold Silver ratio77.84 77.98 75.35 84.79 72.88 111.95 72.88

Gold Crude ratio269.43 269.43 259.75 283.09 250.97 476.82 247.39

Lead Zinc ratio0.78 0.78 0.77 0.84 0.77 0.92 0.77

Lead Aluminium ratio1.05 1.05 1.05 1.08 1.02 1.12 1.00

77.84 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold

269.43 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold

0.78 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead

1.05 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead

ECONOMIC DATA

Time Country Importance Event Actual Forecast Previous

Monday, August 31, 2020

5:20 Japan Moderate Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 5.80% 1.90%

5:20 Japan Moderate Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) -1.70% 3.90%

6:30 China V High Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.0 51.2 51.1

6:30 China High Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.5 54.2

20:00 US Low Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Aug) -3

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

6:00 Japan Moderate Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 46.6

7:15 China Moderate Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.1 52.7 52.8

13:30 Euro High Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.7 51.7 51.7

14:30 Euro High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 0.20% 0.40%

14:30 Euro High CPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.40%

14:30 Euro Moderate Unemployment Rate (Jul) 8.00% 7.80%

19:15 US Moderate Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.1 53.6

19:30 US Moderate Construction Spending (MoM) (Jul) 0.1% 1.00% -0.70%

19:30 US V High ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 56.0 54.5 54.2

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

2:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.360M -4.524M

14:30 Euro Moderate PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.50% 0.70%

14:30 Euro Moderate PPI (YoY) (Jul) -3.40% -3.70%

16:30 US Low MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -6.50%

17:45 US Moderate ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) 428K 900K 167K

19:30 US Moderate Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul) 6.4% 6.00% 6.20%

20:00 US High Crude Oil Inventories -9.362M -1.887M -4.689M

20:00 US High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.676M -1.357M 1.388M

20:00 US High Gasoline Inventories -4.320M -3.036M -4.584M

20:00 US Moderate EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 1.10%

23:30 US Moderate Beige Book

Thursday, September 3, 2020

7:15 China Moderate Caixin Services PMI (Aug) 54.0 54.1

7:15 China Moderate Chinese Composite PMI (Aug) 54.1

14:30 Euro Moderate Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -1.3% 1.50% 5.70%

14:30 Euro Moderate Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 0.4% 3.30% 1.30%

17:00 US Low Challenger Job Cuts (Aug) 262.649K

18:00 US High Continuing Jobless Claims 14.000M 14,535K

18:00 US Moderate Exports 158.25B

18:00 US Moderate Imports 208.95B

18:00 US High Initial Jobless Claims 950K 1,006K

18:00 US Moderate Trade Balance (Jul) -52.30B -50.70B

19:15 US Moderate Markit Composite PMI (Aug) 54.7 50.3

19:15 US Moderate Services PMI (Aug) 54.8 50

19:30 US Moderate ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 57 58.1

20:00 US High Natural Gas Storage 34B 45B

Friday, September 4, 2020

18:00 US High Manufacturing Payrolls (Aug) 50K 26K

18:00 US V High Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) 1,400K 1,763K

18:00 US High Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) 1,250K 1,462K

18:00 US V High Unemployment Rate (Aug) 9.80% 10.20%

22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 180

22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 254

BULLION

GOLD M

MCX Oct

Intra Day

Near Term

Technical Levels

R3 53150/53430

R2 52830/52990

R1 51240/51630/52200

Turnaround 51060

S1 50600/50370

S2 50100

S3 49850

Technical Commentary

As long as prices hold the upside hurdle of 51060 may squeeze down prices

lower to 50600 then to 50370. But in this weak bias, recovery move above

51060 may push prices higher to 51240 / 51630.

Technical Levels

R3 75500/77400

R2 73300/74200

R1 70000/ 71500/72800

Turnaround 68400

S1 66200/65000

S2 64250/63900

S3 62500

Technical Commentary

Prices possibly to trade lower in the upcoming session with an immediate

objective of 66200 followed by 65000. However, rise above 68400 could

boost prices higher.

SILVER M

MCX Nov

Intra Day

Near Term

NATURAL GAS

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

CRUDEOIL

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

ENERGY

Technical Levels

R3 3310/3365/3410

R2 3190/3225/3260

R1 3120/3165

Turnaround 3055

S1 2940/2880

S2 2825

S3 2770/2690

Technical Commentary

Current feebleness of prices may persist towards the downside objective of

2940 then to 2880. However, reclaiming trades above 3055 could lift prices

higher.

Technical Levels

R3 209/213.40

R2 198/202.40/205.80

R1 188/190/193.80

Turnaround 179

S1 175

S2 171.80

S3 167/163

Technical Commentary

As long as prices hold the Bollinger middle band level of 179 could expect

prices to trade higher in the coming session towards the upside objective of

188 followed by 190. But direct fall below 179 may bid a long a liquidation

move.

NICKEL

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 548.50

R2 538.90/544.20

R1 526.70/531.50/536

Turnaround 521.60

S1 514.50/512.20

S2 507.60/504

S3 499.50

Technical Commentary

Intraday move largely to be downward with an immediate objective of

514.50 then to 512.20. On the flipside, rise above the immediate hurdle of

521.60 could lift prices higher.

Technical Levels

R3 1194

R2 1182

R1 1155/1163/1175

Turnaround 1142

S11132/1120/1116/11

08

S2 1096/1086/1070

S3 1062

Technical Commentary

If prices remained below the hindrance of 1142 could expect a corrective

move towards the downside objective of 1116 followed by 1108. But

retreating trades above 1142 could boost prices higher.

Copper

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

Zinc

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

Lead

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 206.40

R2 203.30/204.80

R1 198/199.50/200.80

Turnaround 196.80

S1 194.50/193.60

S2 192.20/191.50

S3 189.20

Technical Levels

R3 161.80

R2 159.20/160.40

R1 154.80/157/158.20

Turnaround 153.30

S1 151/150.30

S2 149.50

S3 148.90/147.50

Technical Commentary

Current weakness may continue towards the downside objective of 194.50

then to Bollinger lower band level of 193.60. But rise above 196.80 could lift

prices higher.

Technical Commentary

Weakness may persist towards the downside objective of 151 firstly then to

150.30 region. However, retreating trades above 153.30 could lift prices

higher.

Aluminium

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 150.30/152

R2 149.80

R1 147.50/149.10

Turnaround 146

S1 144/142.80/141.90

S2 140.60/138.70

S3 136

Technical Commentary

As prices broke the Bollinger middle band level of 145.30 could expect a

corrective downside move towards 144 followed by 142.80. On the flipside,

price recovery may be seen only above 146.

Buying

sentiment/

Bullish

Selling

sentiment/

Bearish

Neutral/

sideways

S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling

pressure.

R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter

buying pressure.

GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:

CERTIFICATION

I, Krishnaprasad N.B., employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby

certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all

of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by GFSL and the report & its contents are the exclusive property of GFSL and the

recipient cannot tamper with the report or its contents in any manner and the said report, shall in no case, be

further distributed to any third party for commercial use, with or without consideration.

GFSL has taken steps to ensure that facts in this report are based on reliable information but cannot testify,

nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained

within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the

rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.

Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this

report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity

or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in

this report are suitable for any particular investor. This Report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the

exercise of independent judgment. Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original

publication date appearing on this Report and the information, including the opinions and estimates contained

herein, are subject to change without notice. GFSL is under no duty to update this report from time to time.

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In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also

provided which may be considered by the reader before making an investment decision:

1. Disclosures regarding Ownership:

GFSL confirms that:

It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject Commodity

futures covered herein at the time of publication of this report.

Further, the Research Analyst confirms that:

He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject Commodity futures covered herein,

and they have no other material conflict in the subject Commodity at the time of publication of this report.

2. Disclosures regarding Compensation:

During the past 12 months, GFSL or its Associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from

any entity/ third party in connection with the Commodity futures mentioned in this report.

3. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst’s connection with the Commodity futures:

It is affirmed that I,Krishna prasad N.B., employed as Research Analyst by GFSL and engaged in the preparation

of this report have no substantial ownership or financial interest over any Commodity futures mentioned in the

report.

4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:

Neither GFSL nor its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject Commodity

futures.

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