Geographic Patterns and Profiling of Illegal Land Border Crossings D. Kim Rossmo Quint C. Thurman.
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Transcript of Geographic Patterns and Profiling of Illegal Land Border Crossings D. Kim Rossmo Quint C. Thurman.
Geographic Patterns and Profiling of Illegal Land Border Crossings
D. Kim RossmoQuint C. Thurman
Border Control
Geographic range Porous nature US national security Significant challenge
Rugged terrain of El Paso border
The Illegal Border Crossing “Arms Race”
Ground sensor and UAV
Fencing and electronic gate
Trucks in Rio Grande canyon
Inner tubes along the Rio Grande
Berlin Wall
10,315 days August 1961 to November 1989 East / West Berlin border 27 miles West Berlin border 96 miles 12-foot wall, 302 watch towers, 20 bunkers 192 deaths, 200 shooting injuries 5,000 escapes (3.4 per week)
US Border Patrol Sectors
Texas-MexicoBorder 1,000 miles 52% of
southern border
1,933 miles 50% federal
land
Theoretical Perspective Criminal behavior
Bounded rationality Shaped by personal and environmental factors
Migration theory Origin (push) factors Destination (pull) factors) Distance (effort, time, money)
Cost/benefit (risk/reward) analysis framework
Illegal Border Crossing Requirements
Trip origin Border Staging area Crossing Landing Trip destination
Premise Identify border crossing factors
Facilitating Inhibiting
Determine features related to probability of illegal border movement Environmental Physical
US Border Patrol Data
2001 to 2004 (4 years) 1 to 1.6 million cases annually in the US 20 to 25% of these cases are in Texas Laredo, McAllen, Del Rio, Marfa,
and El Paso Sectors
Dependent Illegal Texas-Mexico land border crossings
Independent Physical geography Human geography
Research Variables
Preliminary Focus Area
Del Rio Border Patrol Sector
Val Verde, Kinney, & Maverick Counties
111 Landmark Mile Markers (170 miles)
Physical Geography
Hydrography Terrain Vegetation Temperature (day and night)
Hydrography Types of features
Streams Rivers Lakes Reservoirs
Data sources US Census (USA) INEGI (Mexico)
Terrain (USGS DEM) Extent
All counties Mexico overlap
Primary Output Elevation Slope Aspect Hillshade
Identification Ravines Gullies
Vegetation Types of features
Brush Crops Parks Woods
Data sources TPWD (US) INEGI (Mexico)
Temperature
Monthly normals Minimum Maximum
Annual normals Mean
Human Geography Variables
Major transportation Population density Urban developments Political region Additional features
Major Transportation Types
Airports Railroads Roads Bridges
US data sources US Census TCEQ
Mexico data sources GeoCommunity
Population Density & Urban Development
US data 2000 US Census All counties
Mexico Data 1990 Census Mexico
October 1, 2000 - August 17, 2004All Entries
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000V
-1
V-5
V-9
V-1
3
V-1
7
V-2
1
V-2
5
V-2
9
V-3
2
V-3
6
V-3
9
V-4
1
V-4
3
V-4
7
K-3
K-7
M-2
.5
M-6
M-0
9 A
M-1
3
M-1
7
M-2
1
M-2
5
M-2
9
M-3
3
M-3
7
M-4
1
M-4
5
Landmark Mile Marker(North to South Order)
En
trie
s
October 1, 2000 - August 17, 2004Criminal Disposition Entries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
V-1
V-5
V-9
V-1
3
V-1
7
V-2
1
V-2
5
V-2
9
V-3
2
V-3
6
V-3
9
V-4
1
V-4
3
V-4
7
K-3
K-7
M-2
.5
M-6
M-0
9 A
M-1
3
M-1
7
M-2
1
M-2
5
M-2
9
M-3
3
M-3
7
M-4
1
M-4
5
Landmark Mile Marker(North to South Order)
En
trie
s
Del Rio Illegal Border Crossings
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
1 21 41 61 81 101
Landmarks
Cro
ss
ing
sDel Rio Illegal Border Crossings
(Cumulative %)
G = 0.64ID = 0.49
Del Rio Sector – All Illegal Entries
2000 14,520
2001 86,974
2002 61,974
2003 53,744
2004 37,534
2000-04254,717
All Entries
Del Rio Sector – Criminal Entries
2000 -
2001 5
2002 129
2003 289
2004 162
2000-04 585
Criminal Entries
Density of Del Rio Sector Illegal Entries
Entries by MonthAll Entries
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Month
En
trie
s
Entries by MonthCriminal Disposition Entries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Month
En
trie
s
Entries by Day of MonthAll Entries
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Day of Month
En
trie
s
Entries by Day of WeekAll Entries
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
WednesdayThursday
Friday
Saturday
Entries by Day of WeekCriminal Disposition Entries
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
WednesdayThursday
Friday
Saturday
Time of Entry - All Entries
4000
8000
12000
16000
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
Time of Entry - Criminal Disposition Entries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
500:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
Residence Country (Excluding Mexico)
US or Mexico State of Birth
Gender
Apprehension Age
Distance to United States Urban Areas
Distance to Mexico Urban Areas
Slope Least Cost Path
Cost-weighted distance (higher slope = greater cost)
Cost-weighted direction (least cost direction to source)
Least cost path (to rural highway segments)
Combined Slope Cost-Weighted Distance
Top 10 criminal disposition entry Landmark Mile Markers
Weighted by number of criminal disposition entries
323 total entries
Slope Cost Distance Analysis
Travel across terrain values is more difficult (higher “cost”)
Border areas with low slope cost values are attractive to illegal border crossers
Elevation Change Analysis
Border areas with higher elevation on the Mexico side are attractive to illegal border crossers
Elevation differentials allows for surveillance of US Border Patrol vehicles
Viewshed Analysis
The viewshed (line of sight) identifies all locations visible from a given point
Areas with low viewshed values are attractive to illegal border crossers due to low detection risk
Illegal Border Crosser Population Estimates
Official estimates: +10 to 50% Line officer estimates: +100%
Capture-RecaptureAnalysis P
S1
S2O
P = S1S2
O
?
Scholarly Outcomes
Illegal movements International migration Spatial displacement Natural and built factors Microlevel environmental influences
Practical Products
US Border Patrol operations Unidentified crossing points Displacement anticipation Criminal and drug interdiction Counter-terrorism applications Training