Geog 111A-211A Overview Fall 2006. Evolving Paradigm of Modeling and Simulation Dynamic Planning...

Geog 111A-211A Overview

Fall 2006

Evolving Paradigm of Modeling and

Simulation

Dynamic Planning Practice

New Research and Technology

Sustainable and Green Visions

The Three Pillars

Note: Modeling and Simulation includes quantitative and qualitative nature

Recall Activity-based Example

Penn State Evacuation Model

• Sajjad Alam, MS, 1996(simplified model of the PennState campus life)

• Application for general planning, circulation plan, emergency operations, and special events

Used Activity Diary to Derive Time of Day Profiles

Personal needs (includes sleep)

Paid work

Education

Eat Meal

Travel

Activity Participation - Students

Activity Participation - Faculty

Activity Participation - Staff

Assembled

• Administrative records

• Building characteristics

• Developed attractiveness indicators (a gravity/distance model)

• A survey of activity participation

• A method to sequence activity participation

Dynamic Presence on Campus

Combination of These Ideas = Centre SIM

(by J. Kuhnau, J. Eom, and M. Zekkos)• Build a network and facility information from

1997 to 2000• Use business/establishment data• Build and verify zonal system and information

therein• Expand Alam approach to the entire county• Identify major new developments and network

changes in 2000 to 2020• Provide a base model and validate it• No new data collection for Kuhnau – Eom and

Zekkos modify routines using new data

Simplified time of day activity-location-travel

Zone Presence and Travel Demand Output for Time Segment 8:00 – 9:00 AM

Zone Presence and Travel Demand Output for Time Segment 12:00 – 1:00 PM

More recent with Goods Movements (V/C)(Jinki Eom MS)

Many Models Like CentreSIM

Model Review• Completed a review of 49 activity-based

transportation models• Paradigms implemented (alone or in

combination):– Cellular Automata (TRANSIMS)– Constraint-based (AMOS, BSP, CARLA, FAMOS, FEATHERS)– Computational Process Model (ALBATROSS, SCHEDULER, TASHA)– Data-statistical Distributions (DEMOS, MORPC, ORIENT, TASHA)– Econometric Utility-based (CEMDAP, PCATS, STARCHILD, TASHA)– Framework (SCHEDULER, SMART)– Hazards Risk (COMRADE)– Microsimulation (ALBATROSS, CEMDAP, FAMOS, TRANSIMS)– Operations Research (HAPP)– Psychometric Cognitive (SCHEDULER, GISICAS)

Activity Model Behavioral UnitsDecision Makers

Groups Modeled

Unknown/ Unspecificed

WorkersCollege

StudentsAdults

Partial Households

Entire Households

Unknown/Unspecified

BSPPESASP(16 yrs +)

Individuals

Daily Activity Schedule,

Hayes-Roth & Hayes-Roth,

PCATS, SMART, Vause

Alam-PSEM, AMOS,

CATGW, COBRA

Alam-PSEM, COMRADE

AURORA, DATS/LATP, FEATHERS,

MASTIC, PATRICIA,

SIMAP, Synthetic Daily Activity-

Travel Patterns

Portland Daily Activity

Schedule(16 yrs +), Wen and

Koppelman (married couples)

CARLA, CentreSIM – regional, Ettema et al's (HCG),

GISICAS, HAPP, MORPC, New York "Best Practice", PETRA, RAMBLAS, San Francisco, SCHEDULER, SMASH, STARCHILD,

TRANSIMS

Households ALBATROSS

Adler and Ben-Akiva, CEMDAP, CentreSIM–

Medoid, DEMOS, FAMOS, ILUTE, MERLIN, MIDAS,

PUMA, TASHA

Specified Groups

ILUTE

WorkersKawakami and

Isobe

Homogenous Population Groups

ORIENTVISEM

(10 yrs +)

Model Temporal and Spatial ResolutionsSpatial

Resolution

Temporal Resolution

Unknown/ Unspecificed

None YearBlocks of

TimeHour

5 to 15 Minutes

MinuteSecond or

Continuous

Unknown/Unspecifie

d

BSP, Ettema (HCG), Hayes-

Roth, Kawakami and Isobe,

ORIENT, Wen and Koppelman

Starchild

None Vause, CATGW

Adler and Ben-Akiva, Daily Act.

Sch., PESASP,

SCHEDULER, SMART

MIDAS, DEMOS

CARLA, COBRA,

Synthetic Daily Activity-Travel

Patterns

HAPPCentreSIM - medoid

COMRADE, DATS/LATP

Region MERLIN

Zones AMOS PATRICIA

NYMTC, PCATS, PETRA, Portland, SFCTA

VISEM, CentreSIM - regional

TASHAMASTIC,

RAMBLASFAMOS

Sub-zones MORPC ALBATROSS,

AURORA. FEATHERS

Points SMASH Alam

PSEMSIMAP GISICAS

CEMDAP, ILUTE, PUMA, TRANSIMS


Simulation





• Dynamic thinking = time and change are intrinsic in the thought processes underlying planning activities.

• Strategic planning = set targets and find paths to achieve these targets

• Ecological thinking = we consider the overall anthropogenic system and nature

• Performance based planning = measurable targets and continuous evaluation

• Coherent modeling = we need information and guidance to plan, design, operate, manage, and maintain transportation systems

Dynamic Planning Components

• Inventory – envision as a dynamic map of entities and functions

• Strategy measurement and evaluation – targets and ways to make assessments

• Forecasting and Backcasting – travel from present to future and back

Inventory Issues

• Multiple levels

• Errors and error tolerance (policies, models, databases)

• Updates and cycles

• Merging data and information among different scales

Strategy measurement and evaluation

• Strategic Planning – set a target and the path to reach it – the usual vision, mission, goals, objectives, targets, measures, and update cycles

• Performance Based Planning – in essence means if you meet a goal you get funding continuation; otherwise…

A Federal Example• Federal Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART)• For individual programs from homeland security to education,

employment, and training. • Tailored analysis to each program (airport improvement, highway

planning and construction, fixed guideway modernization capital investments, and the federal transit formula grants and research).

• Yearly update and evaluation. • Uses 25 questions divided into sections to analyze:

– a) purpose and design of a program; – b) strategic planning and an agency’s ability to define outcome-oriented

yearly and longer term goals; – c) management and quality assurance; and – d) ability of a program to report accurately and consistently outcomes. – Tailored analysis yields summaries that receive a rating from 0 to 100

(0-49 is ineffective, 50-69 is adequate, 70-84 is moderately effective, and 84-100 is effective).

A State Example (MN)

Another State Example (CA)

PennPlan Moves! Pennsylvania Statewide Long Range

Transportation Plan

2000-2025

Moves Themes/Statewide Goals Matrix

GOALS

PUBLIC INPUT - MOVES THEMES

1. Promote safety of the transportation system. X

2. Improve the environment. X X

3. Retain jobs and expand economic opportunites. X X X

4. Make transportation decisions that support land use planningobjectives.

X X

5. Maintain, upgrade, and improve the transportation system. X X X X X

6. Inform and involve the public and improve customer service. X X

7. Advance regional and corridor-based planning. X X X

8. Develop transportation alternatives and manage demand. X X X X X

9. Promote smooth and easy connections between transportationalternatives.

X X X X

10. Ensure accessibility and mobility for everyone. X X X X

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PENNSYLVANIA STATEWIDE LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN OBJECTIVES

Objective Performance Measure Target

16. Coordinate the development of a statewidemass transit strategic plan.

Development of a plan that includes both short-term(1 to 5 years) and long-term (6 to 25 years)objectives.

Plan completed by Dec. 31, 2001.

17. Increase urban and rural transitsystems' ridership.

Percentage increase in transit ridership, using 1997as the base year.

Ridership increased by:2003: 9% 2010: 16% 2020: 26%

18. Reduce dependence on single-occupancyvehicles.

Increase in vehicle occupancy rate (VOR). VOR increased by:2003: 5% 2010: 10% 2020: 20%

19. Eliminate at-grade crossings of freightlines by state-owned roads within strategic railcorridors.

Number of at-grade crossings of freight lines by state-owned roads within strategic rail corridors.

Such crossings eliminated by July 31, 2015.

20. Develop a statewide, passenger-rail needsassessment.

Completion of the assessment. Assessment completed by 2002.

21. Support the creation and expansion ofintermodal rail freight facilities that connect tothe National Highway System (NHS).

Access to NHS by intermodal rail freight facilites. Satisfactory access of all intermodal railfreight facilities to the NHS achieved by Dec.31, 2010.

22. Promote telecommuting as an alternativeto traditional work travel.

Increase in telecommuting as reported in nationalcensuses, with 2000 census as the base.

Telecommuting increased by:2010: 15% 2020: 22%

23. Connect all public-use airports to statetraffic routes or high-access transit systems.

Percent of public-use airports connected to statetraffic routes or high-access transit systems.

Public-use airports connected by:2003: 50%2008: 55%2013: 60%2018: 65%

24. Fully utilize the Pennsylvania InfrastructureBank's loan program as an innovativefinancing tool for transportation projectsthrough 2025.

Number of loans closed.

Positive cash balance through 2025.

Average of 6 loans per year closed through2025.

25. Maintain Pennsylvania's historical share ofthe annual federal transportation budget.

Pennsylvania's annual percentage share of the federaltransportation budget.

Annual share of 4.5 percent or highermaintained through 2025.

26. Reduce the number of state-maintainedroad miles.

Total turned-back miles. 100 road miles turned back annually.

Some Interesting questions• What types of consistency do we need among geographic scales

for planning and operations actions to perform evaluations?• Are there policy requirements for coordination among planning

activities to ensure consistency? • Are there suitable methods to coordinate smaller projects in

broader contexts (either of policy assessment or geographical area)?

• Do we have all the tools required to perform measurement of impacts and program evaluation at the newly defined assessment cycles?

• Which planning activity is better matched with which evaluation method?

• Are we excluding the randomized controlled experiments when we could perform them?

Dynamic Planning Components:Forecasting & Backcasting

• Forecasting = use the inventory and an evolutionary engine to create predictions of what will happen in the future

• Backcasting = envision a future and then work your way to the present and find out what needs to happen to make that vision reality

• Backcasting is not a simple reversal of time for forecasting – we cannot just reverse our dunamic models (non-linear in time)

An example of backcasting

Quist J. and P. J. Vergragt (2004) Backcasting for Industrial Transformations and System Innovations Towards Sustainability: Relevance for Government? In K. Jacob, M. Binder and A. Wieczorek (ds.) Governace for industrial Transformation. Proceedings of the 2003 Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Chnage, Envirionmental Policy Research Centre: ber;i. Pp 409-437

• Forecasting is done by building scenarios• Microsimulation and synthetic population generation are

becoming popular• Activity-based approaches and inclusion of other

modeling facets (cars, houses, telecoms, human interactions) are happening

• BUT is backcasting and tool making for strategic planning happening?

• Any tools about performance based planning?

Some Interesting questions


Simulation





• Many of the travel behavior and operations models in conferences (TRB, IATBR) are motivated by these visions – decrease anthropogenic footprint on earth

• Also motivated by funds and mandates in legislation – see conformity

• Implies -> an ecosystem approach to analysis -> multiple scales and domains!

• Dedicate less time in this presentation

Policy examplesType of tool Brief description

Congestion pricing and toll collection programs A premium is charged to travelers that wish to travel during the most congested periods

Emission control, vehicle miles traveled, and other fee programs (including carbon taxes and trading)

Programs that shift taxation from traditional sources towards pollutant emissions and natural- resource depletion agents

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Use of telecommunications and information technology to manage, control, and provide information about the transportation system to travelers and managers.

Accelerated retirement of vehicles programs Programs to eliminate high emitting and older technology vehicles

Telecommunications to substitute/complement travel

The employment of telecommunications to substitute-complement-enhance travel

Land use growth and management programs Legislation that controls for the growth of cities in sustainable paths

Land use design and attention to neighborhood design for non-motorized travel

Similar to the previous but with attention paid to individual neighborhoods

Note: many more in a paper I will provide later

Ultimately We Want to Build Better Models for Assessment

PROPOLIS Example


Simulation




New Research and Technologies

• Tremendous progress in past 20 years in three areas:– Theory Building – Modeling and Simulation – Enabling Technologies

Theory Building

• Many competing paradigms

• Dynamics (change, time, agent evolution)

• Interactions considered in detail– Human-machine– Human-environment– Human-human

Modeling & Simulation

• Many options

• Micro-everything and aggregate up to whatever we need

• Evolutionary algorithms

• Econometrics/Statistics (e.g., latent variables)

• Soft Computing (e.g., data mining)

Last two can be considered a technology

Enabling Technologies

• Stochastic microsimulation • Production systems • Geographic information systems • Adaptive data collection techniques (think of

interactive computer experiments)• Dataloggers (GPS+Mobile

phone+envirosensors+who knows what else?)• Note: Computational capacity and speed are

already considered to keep galloping

Eiji Hato (U of Tokyo)Survey Methods

Behavioral Context Addressable Loggers in A Shell

Another Example

• RESEARCH UNIT ON SPATIAL COGNITION AND CHOICE

Wearable Device that allows to travel in unfamiliar environments

Uses GPS to track an individual moving through the real world, recording their trip as a trace in a spatial database (digital map) carried in a wearable computer. GIS functionalities calculate shortest paths between current location (fixed by the GPS) and a given destination (keyboarded or spoken). A choice of interfaces include spatial language, virtual beacons, an auditory virtual environment, or Talking Signs

The Evolving Paradigm and Some Questions

Requirements

• Policies dictate to create and test increasingly more sophisticated policy assessment instruments

• Account for direct and indirect effects of behavior, • Define procedures for behavioral change, and • Provide finer resolution in the four dimensions of

geographic space, time, social space, and jurisdictions.

• Dynamic planning needs:– Examination of trends, cycles, transitory and permanent impacts, – Invert the time progression and develop paths that lead to

visions about the future. • Model developments are becoming increasingly urgent.

Some examples of what is next ?

• More experimental settings needed for performance measurement– Is there a way we could develop guidelines for experimental and quasi-

experimental procedures to guide us in data collection?• Issues of scale in time and space – what is the right scale?• Coordination of model components – how?

• Error tolerance and their mapping to strategy evaluations • Lack models designed to be used in scenario building exercises

such as backcasting and related assessments. – Combine qualitative research methods with quantitaive techniques in

evaluations.– Invert time in current models and see what happens?

• In new research and technology - > – Consider perceptions of time and space. – Distinguish different time dimensions -> tempo, duration, and clock time – Human interaction

Thank you

• Questions?

Geog 111A-211A Overview Fall 2006. Evolving Paradigm of Modeling and Simulation Dynamic Planning...

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