Performance-based multimodel probabilistic climate change scenarios
GeoffJenkins , New Climate Change Scenarios
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Transcript of GeoffJenkins , New Climate Change Scenarios
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8/14/2019 GeoffJenkins , New Climate Change Scenarios
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Sense about Science
St Johns College Oxford, 17 March 2007
New climate change scenarios for the UK
Geoff Jenkins, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter
and
Royal Meteorological Society, Reading.
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2Met Office Hadley Centre
Global temperatures 1850-2006 (+ 2007 forecast)
Hadley Centre/UEA
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3Met Office Hadley Centre
Natural factors which can change climate
Variations in the Earth's orbit
(Milankovic effect)
Stratosphericaerosol from
energetic
volcanoes
Variations in the energy
received from the sun
Chaotic interactions in
the Earth's climate
(for example, El Nino, NAO)
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4Met Office Hadley Centre
Emissions of CO2 from fossil-fuel burning;rapid rise since 1950
Source: CDIAC, ORNL
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5Met Office Hadley Centre
Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide
1800 1900 2000
375
350
325
300
275
Carbon dioxide
concentration in
parts per million
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6Met Office Hadley CentreSource: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
1.0
0.5
0
1900 1950 2000
Temp
eraturechange
CObservations
Model
simulations withnatural variability
plus mans
activities
Model
simulations
with only
natural
variability
Models can only simulate recent change whenhuman factor are included
Source: IPCC AR4
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7Met Office Hadley Centre
Central England Temperature 1772-2006
2006 was easily the warmest year in England.The warming of nearly 1degC since 1980 cannot be explained by natural factors
and is consistent with the expected response to human factors.
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Emissions to 2000, and IPCC projections to 2100
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
30
20
10
0
Fossil-fuelemissio
ns
GtC/y
High (SRES A1FI)
Medium-High (A2)
Medium-Low (B2)
Low (SRES B1)
Source: CDIAC and IPCC
Problem: we do not know
the relative likelihood of
each emission scenario
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Global average temperature rise UK model
Globaltemperatureri
se,
degreesC High emissions
Medium-high emissions
Medium-low emissions
Low emissions
Start to diverge
from 2040s
Red bar =
likely range
from all
climate
models
Blackbar =
best
estimate
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Planning adaptation to climate change in the UK
Adaptation planners, eg: Transport (road, rail) Environment Agency Utilities (water, energy)
Insurance Local Government Government Regulators Many others
UK
Climate
Impacts
Programme,
Oxford
other
adaptationtools& advice
ClimateChange
Scenarios
Met OfficeHadley Centre
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2002 Climate change scenarios (UKCIP02)
50km resolution from Hadley
Centre GCM and RCM
4 future emissions scenarios Starting to be used by
private and public-sector to
plan adaptation (eg EA 20%
uplift of winter river flow)
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winter summer
C
Change in UK temperature by the 2080sMedium High emissions scenario
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winter summer
%
Change in UK precipitation by the 2080sMedium High emissions scenario
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UK snowfall will be greatly reduced
% reduction in snowfall by 2080sSnowman
February 2007
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Modelling uncertainties IPCC 4AR (2007)
Problem: we do not know the relative likelihood of each prediction
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Next scenarios: Moving from uncertainty to probability
current situation future situation
2080s SE England summer rainfall
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10%
Probability
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10%
2080s SE England summer rainfall
Probability
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UK climate is warmed by the Gulf Stream Ocean currents can be affected by climate change
Rapid cooling 11 000 years ago due to Gulf Stream shutdown
Could this happen again due to human activity?
Could the Gulf Stream switch off?
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How the Gulf stream is maintained
Warm surface current
Cold deep current
Convection areas
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Gulf Stream collapse would mean a cold UK
UK: 3-5C cooling
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Gulf Stream: predicted to decline but not switch off
Circulationstr
ength(Sv)
High emissions
Medium-HighMedium LowLow Emissions
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Summary
Very likely that human activities, mainly fossil fuel burning,are to blame for most of the last 50yr warming
Cannot explain Central England warming by natural factors
Even with strong mitigation policies, climate will change, so
scenarios are needed by planners to prepare for adaptation. Scenarios generated for UK Climate Impacts programme in
2002 have been widely used to explore possible responses.
But climate models give very different predictions for local
regions and for extremes; difficult for planners. Next set of scenarios will handle this uncertainty by being
probabilistic in nature.