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Geodesign Futures – Nearly 50 Predictions

Stephen M. ERVIN

Keynote: 02 June, 2012

1 Abstract

Geodesign is a rapidly evolving set of technologies and approaches, covering a spectrum of disciplines that interact in the built and natural environment, and planning, design, construction, and monitoring processes [ESRI] . This paper speculates, sometimes wildly, on possible future developments in geodesign and in some other disciplines that impinge upon it – accompanied by an estimation of probability, ranging from ‘unlikely’ to ‘certain’ – with time frame not specified, and some ‘short-term reality constraints’ ignored

2 Introduction

I'm well aware of the inherent dangers in making predictions about the future. I know of several famously bad predictions over time, including DEC CEO Ken Olson's in 1977 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”; and a perhaps less well-known 1955 assertion that “nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years”. I will try to avoid any such spectacularly bad calls, at either end of the spectrum; but will try slip in a few provocative predictions into this survey of alternative geodesign futures.

I refer to ‘futures’, not simply ‘future’, intentionally. One night in 2011 while watching TV forecasts about the approach of Hurricane Irene, I realized that one of the things I've always been fascinated by is how weather predictors combine risky predictions with real impact, geospatial content, and great graphics – and in particular rely upon probability maps with zones of widening uncertainty, as in their predicted tracks of tropical storms – and this reminded me of Carl Steinitz's memorable diagram showing, from a moment in time and space, a branching tree of alternative futures stretching out into the future. (Figure 1.) From which of course the geodesigner’s challenge is to pick one (or several) to make the most likely. It’s with that diagram in mind that I entitled this ‘Geodesign Futures’ (plural.)

In exploring the ‘future studies’ enterprise, I came across the idea of “3 P’s and some W’s” for the “possible, probable, and preferable futures, plus wildcards” [WIKIPEDIA]. This seemed like a suitably safe but challenging rubric for constructing my thoughts about this topic, and so I'll use this idea of ranging from ‘the dramatically unlikely’ to ‘the absolutely certain’ in the rest of this speculation about some alternative geodesign futures, in five broad categories: ‘Big Picture’, ‘Technologies’, ‘Software’, ‘Connections’, and ‘Warn-ings’.

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3 Predictions

Predictions 1 – 12: Big Picture Prediction #1. I consider it possible that geodesign will be remembered merely as a marketing buzzword – a low probability, to be sure, but possible. #2. More likely in my view is that geodesign will in fact evolve and mature as a useful fusing of G.I. science with design; and that of course is the future I prefer to work towards.

#3. I do consider it probable that geodesign will always have the same cloudy, fuzzy-boundaried, “in the eye of the beholder” definitional vagaries that, for example, landscape architecture has enjoyed all these years; and that the question “what is geodesign?” will forever be open to interpretation and discussion. I think that's a good thing.

#4. I do consider it unlikely that any agreed-upon suitably crisp definition will emerge. My colleague Mike Flaxman's definition now somewhat abroad in the literature – “Geodesign is a design and planning method which tightly couples the creation of design proposals with impact simulations informed by geographic contexts.” [WIKIPEDIA] – is, I think, good and suitably crisp; but “simulations informed by geographic contexts” doesn't quite nail it for me. I propose to replace the last two words with “systems thinking and digital technologies”. So: “Geodesign is a design and planning method which tightly couples the creation of design proposals with impact simulations informed by systems thinking and digital technologies “. Those two essential aspects are what make geodesign projects unique, in my view, worthy of a distinct name, and not just any old design or planning project, or “what some of us have been doing for many years”.

So I’ll start prediction #5 with a certainty and a very large number: 10 billion; about the number of people predicted to be on the planet in the next century of the ‘anthropocene era’, that we are in today. It is for these people that we do geodesign; not for the forests or dams or transportation systems, but for the people who live, work, and play in the environments we build, modify, or conserve, and for whose well-being we are at least partially responsible in our geodesign activities.

#6. Also certain: a lot of geodesign will be on the Asian continent. Today the average human is a 28-year-old Han Chinese male; but according to the National Geographic moving towards an even younger and somewhat more female individual located closer to the Indian subcontinent; and this indeed is a hotspot for geodesign. Of course we need geodesign everywhere but we especially need it in Asia. Some of the rapid urbanization happening in that region needs desperately to be informed by the aesthetics and the science that geodesign can bring. They have the digital technologies, but systems thinking seems often to be lacking. At the same time, China is a fertile ground for imaginative playful architectural and urban design.

#7. It's probable therefore a lot of geodesign projects will be urban, along with two thirds of the Earth's population. Just recently several things caught my eye in this regard. I noted that the Ted prize is being awarded this year not to an individual but rather to “the city 2.0” – this idea that “over the next 90 years we will build more urban living space than in all prior centuries combined and we had better get it right”. [cite Ted Talk ] I notice also that the Rotterdam architectural Biennale will feature an exhibition themed “smart cities”. And

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I've heard of the “Ubiquitous city” or “U-city” phenomenon – in which urban regions with ubiquitous information technology transform much of what we have understood about urbanism in previous centuries. This also is an important part of geodesign.

#8. Another thing for certain: water will be important. Whether its availability (or shortage) and security and cleanliness, or its overabundance in the wrong place at the wrong time, managing the distribution of water in 4D space time is a major project for geodesign in the future. How we integrate land, water, vegetation and structures is the age-old challenge of all environmental design; and no less so for the future.

#9. And so I consider it probable that public and environmental health will increasingly be a concern for geodesign projects, as witnessed by a range of literature coming out including the book “Designing healthy communities” [JACKSON]. The idea that public health is a determinant at the top of the list – harkening back to Frederick Law Olmsted’s concerns, and the origins of GIS at the ‘cholera well’ – will be an important part of any geodesign future.

#10. I consider probable that biology will be increasingly important, especially in the form of bioengineering, as we are beginning to use biological structures and changes in the biological environment to support geodesign projects; and also ‘biomimicry’ as a source of design inspiration [BENYUS]. For those of you haven't seen some of the incredible work coming out of this line of thinking, from architects and engineers looking at how natural systems provide for such things as waterproofing, lubrication, insulation, and structural efficiency, this is an important thread of science contributing to the future of geodesign.

#11. I consider it certain that agriculture will also be increasingly important, as a component in sustainable and futuristic geodesign efforts. There is much to be invented, yet, in this regard; and much to lose if we don’t pay attention to it!

#12. I consider it probable that we will evolve in geodesign efforts from the pattern-making which has characterized some landscape architecture, architecture, and urban design in the past, to what I call pattern finding or pattern -reinforcing. Using remote sensing, and tools as simple and ubiquitous as Google Earth, we can see large and complex patterns at work in the landscape, to which intelligent geodesign can and must respond. Predictions 13 – 21: Technologies #13. Just as medicine in the clinical sense requires stethoscopes and thermometers, I predict that geodesign will increasingly involve sensors – remote sensors like satellites, and embedded sensors in roads, people, and trees, providing not just static base data but real-time interactive data, and giving rise not just to the familiar remote sensing that has so shaped planning and design in the last several decades, but also giving rise to a newer form of “intimate sensing”.

There is an example of a new system for flood- control infrastructure proposed by RPI, that I think demonstrates the real power of geodesign [RPI]. In the project “Development of a Multi-Scale Monitoring and Health Assessment Framework for Effective Management of Levees and Flood-Control Infrastructure Systems”, they propose physical earth dikes as well as concrete retaining walls and steel structures all connected with motors and actuators, tied together into a network of sensors, computers, and satellites; a very clear example of a geodesign future.

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#14. I consider it unlikely that our current visualization tools will be sufficient. No matter how many rectangular computer display screens we may have, these are incapable of capturing the complexity and the depth of environmental knowledge and perception that we will need. I consider it probable therefore that geodesign representation will require a move beyond maps, graphs, pictures, and movies, and evolve into more 3-D and 4D visualization systems.

#15. For example I consider it probable that augmented reality interfaces will become increasingly vivid and useful, especially coupled with mobile devices and new interfaces. Many of us today are carrying cell phones capable of overlaying a video image of the real world with additional information whether about coffee shops or land prices or soil types or vegetation diseases … These devices are transforming the way we can understand and therefore design the world.

#16. I consider it probable that gestural interfaces are here to stay. I wish I could say that a long-held vision of mine for a digital clay grading system, for manipulating terrain by thumb-swipe, was actually in its prototype stage – but it’s still only in the dream (or fake-demo) stage. I look forward to the developments that will come out of touch screens, tablet computers, and gestural interfaces, and their impacts upon geodesign practices.

#17. I certainly consider it probable that virtual realities and immersive displays will continue to become more and more available, useful, and compelling in the process of visualizing and understanding landscapes and environments. Holographic projection systems are already on the market. Who for example didn't want the 3-D immersive display system as seen in James Cameron's ‘Avatar’ movie – just think about the possibilities of this kind of display, many technological components of which are already available.

#18. And I should mention that I consider it likely that geodesign will continue to inherit technology from the military and from Hollywood; and unlikely, sadly, that the military or Hollywood will learn much from geodesign. This is an example where I hope I'm wrong.

#19. I have no doubt that the technology for simulations will be improve rapidly and be central as the geodesign enterprise moves forward. Hydrological and fluid dynamics simulations in particular have come a long way towards being useful in everyday design situations, with desktop computers.

#20. I don't exclude the physical or tangible from this fascination with the virtual. Indeed I predict that physical and tangible interfaces and simulations will be an important part of geodesign moving forward, whether it's in the familiar style of a 3-D model of the city with an analog camera physically moving through it; or in the more complex possibility that each of these model buildings is endowed with sensors, actuators, or other ‘intelligence’, capable of interaction and adding complexity to simulations.

#21. I consider it possible that ontologies for geodesign will become more comprehensive and embedded in design practice and therefore will enable complex ‘geo-reasoning – not just ‘geographic analysis’ as we have today, but if we are to engage in collaborative reasoning between people, and indeed between people and machines, we’ll need agreed-upon vocabularies and shared semantics. The SDSS geodesign knowledge portal available on-line thanks to University of Redlands [SDSS] is an example of this emerging possibility.

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Predictions 22 – 29: Software #22. I consider it unlikely that any dominant software will emerge in this space. It might be great if we could all buy and use “Geodesign Suite 2012”, but I actually don't think that's going to be the future. Rather I consider it more probable that there will be “apps for that”, and web services – whether in the cloud, open-source, closed-source, or other – that will provide the new paradigm for how software is designed, developed, distributed, and used.

#23. Here's a low-probability, high-payoff wild card: some open-source consortium will begin to the make and develop industrial-strength geodesign apps which will become available to users all over the globe with access to high-quality local data, and in so doing enable a better planetary future!

#24. And here's a possibility that I've talked about at this conference before: the necessary complements of a useful geodesign software toolbox. Let me describe 15 essential components briefly: – all geodesign in my view is fundamentally the process of arranging objects – such as

trees, forests, houses, cities, transportation systems, et al. ; – over a base – a geographic context that has some coordinates, and some existing

unchangeable features such as topographical, hydrological and others; – in some particular configuration or layout, both geometric in 3-D and also over time in

4D; – subject to some constraints – houses must be parallel to the road, roads can't be in the

water, and so on; – and in so doing we make access to a library of objects and configurations, of

constraints and base data and other precedents from which we can learn; – often in collaboration with others over space-time, asynchronous and distributed; – producing along the way multiple versions, some of which need to be kept, combined,

and branched, some of which are dead-ends and die, and some of which become viable for the future;

– and in so doing we engage across a range of levels of abstraction, from high-level abstract concepts such as radial or symmetric, to much more specific and concrete dimensions in particular materials;

– and in this regard I consider a particular class of graphics, to wit diagrams, to be essential to the design project – that's where abstract ideas meet specific sites and thereby become plans and proposals;

– and we've learned that our plans and proposals need not be limited to static printed drawings; that they can be like the Web, hyperlinked with connected information, whether it's videos, or specifications, or more detail in a range of ways

– also we need to have modeling and scripting capabilities – all the power of modern computer science – for describing relationships between objects and configurations and constraints, so that we can see both predictions for the future and also modeling configurations according to algorithmic design;

– and our designs must be cognizant of time, whether long-term seasonal changes or just the schedule of a construction project;

– and, especially with the added dimension of time, simulation is an essential part of what makes geodesign (as in Flaxman’s definition); and by this I include not just scientific (spatial and a-spatial) simulations, but also visual simulations – renderings and animations are in my model included in this box;

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– and for managing complex projects we have talked in previous geodesign conferences about the idea of dashboards – summary displays which capture key performance metrics, and allow for rapid evaluation of complex designs according to the outputs often of the simulations we have made;

– and, finally, in a nod to my colleague and teacher Carl Steinitz – although I've never been a big fan of the animated paperclip avatar injecting its self into one's thought process at the computer – the idea that we might have knowledge of multiple methods of geodesign which could be invoked, and indeed perhaps a non-intrusive kind of ‘methods coach’ who might observe: “gosh, I notice that for the last couple of days there's been no real improvements on your important key metrics ; either you should consider this project done, or possibly consider another method altogether …”

Now from all those 15 items, I want to pick out 5 points that are particularly worthy of attention in this talk.

#25. I consider it likely that we will have object-oriented design and I talked about this last year at the 2011 Geodesign Summit conference. [ERVIN (2011)]

#26. With respect to the objects of design, I consider it probable that we will have full 3-D integration in our geodesign software and that we will no longer need to distinguish between building and landscape, or CAD or GIS or BIM or LIM.

#27. I consider it possible that constraints will be more embedded in software. Many geometric modeling tools already enable simple constraints such as perpendicular or collinear, and also gravity and other dynamics are making their way also into these tools. I do also recognize that having constraints raises serious issues such as what to do when conflicts arise – more silly paperclips making suggestions? – and this is why this is not in the ‘certain’ or even ‘probable’ category in my view.

#28. I consider probable that version management will make its way into geodesign. Software developers have now at their disposal simple tools for managing and merging and diverging multiple versions with shared code repositories and expanding this idea from just linear textual code to more complex hypermedia documents with drawings, etc., is not that daunting a technological problem, and surely will come to pass.

#29. Sadly I consider it unlikely – although I also consider it highly desirable – that we will get computational support for diagrams. I consider this to be such a key part of all design thinking – as I've also talked about at the ESRI Geodesign Summit 2010 [ERVIN (2011)] – unfortunately this is real hard, and may remain the domain of ‘wetware’ (solely the domain of human designers) into the foreseeable future.

So these are some of the elements that I consider will or should be part of the future of geodesign software, one way or another.

Predictions 30 – 45: Connections #30. Another thing is for certain: systems thinking will have to prevail if we are to be successful. System thinking is simple deceptively – practices such as “seeking to understand the big picture”, “considering short and long-term consequences”, “changing perspective to increase understanding” – and taught in elementary school nowadays, thanks, for example to the Waters foundation – but also sadly lacking in many aspects of the public environment that geodesign must take on.

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And it’s not just for grade-schoolers; but also informs complex scientific thinking. I recommend to you Donella Meadows book “Thinking in systems”, [MEADOWS] in which she describes her experience and insights starting back with the “Limits to Growth” exercise she was a part of. You can also Google “Dancing with Systems”, for a very nice short, poetic essay about systems thinking.

#31. Thinking about the essential roles of biology and agriculture in geodesign, I consider it possible (and desirable) that “resilient design”, “permaculture”, and “cradle to cradle” thinking, along with other related ideas, and as I mentioned above, agriculture, will become essential complements of geodesign as we move forward into the 21st century.

#32. I consider it certain that geodesign and geodesigners will need to be connected and to build connections – whether they are social Facebook connections or hydrological underground connections, landscape ecological stepping stones or coherent global transit systems … “Connection” is a necessary by-word for geodesign.

#33. It's certain that the so-called “Web of things” will affect geodesign. This is the world of sensors and controllers and objects and systems that I've alluded to earlier.

#34. I consider it probable that “Robo-dozing” (robotically controlled earth-moving machines) will become more widespread – and more generally: there will be more robots in all aspects of geodesign. Caterpillar is already committed to making a range of robotic earth moving equipment and you can imagine the conversations between artificial intelligences, as bulldozers and cellphones communicate with the ‘mother computer’ at the engineering office.

#35. I consider possible that “terraforming” will become more of a reality. As a science-fiction reader I’ve long been intrigued with the idea of transforming other planets and moons into more earthlike habitable ecological systems – and the sad truth is we will very likely have to do it to our very own planet!

#36. I certainly consider it likely that flying robots will become a part of our systems – notably obviously for surveillance but also in the future for construction, as these devices such as these available from micro-drones.com become more and more powerful, available, and controllable.

#37. I do consider it unlikely that we'll ever have the walking city envisioned by Ron Herron and Archigram in 1964, in which large robotic mega structures prowled the surface of the earth. That's too bad – I've always liked the drawing.

#38. More probable is that the new term geo-fencing will become a part of the geodesign vocabulary. This is the idea that rather than having to build a physical fence, we can simply draw a polygon on a screen, which when coupled with GPS and various other kinds of tracking or restraint systems, such as you might put on a dog or a prisoner, can become an effective virtual fence. The market today is for businesses tracking “employee accountability and productivity”, but there's also a dark side to this technology known as “geo-slavery”; the idea that individual rights may be threatened or even lost in the future subject to location-based systems and technologies. This is something that geodesigners will have to take into account and hopefully not be complicit in …

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#39. It's for certain that geodesign is already multi-scale – ranging from global concerns that really impact thinking locally, to the emergence of microscale nano-technological devices which can make a real impact on the world. At the broadest scale, I recommend to you Bruce Mau’s book and project called ‘Massive Change’ [MAU] (http://massive change.com ) which talks about “not just the world of design” but as the book cover would have it, “ the design of the world”.

#40. Another intriguing new possibility is ‘planet-hacking’. See for example Eli Kintisch’s book ‘Hack the Planet’ [KINTISCH] in which he talks about interventions at the global scale, such as carbon sequestration technologies and artificial volcanoes among other things … Geodesigners may have learn to hack the planet (without breaking it!)

#41. And it's probable that nanotechnology will also be a player; witness the growing landscape of “synthetic biology” which includes the development of microbial viruses that may well impact ecological systems in ways that we can’t either understand or predict right now …

#42. And so it's probable that some geodesign ethics will emerge … and be controversial, with no single set of geodesign ethics. As we engage in transforming our planet and our societies, we will inevitably and repeatedly come up against the complications of cultural diversity and multiple points of view …

#43. It's possible that we will one day do some geodesign on the moon or some other planet (would we call it luno-design?) and in so doing we will have access to Hargrove's book “Beyond spaceship Earth; environmental ethics and the Solar System.” [HARGROVE] Now that's thinking big!

#44. It's possible then that our education system will be able to keep up with the demands of budding designers who will need access to information about everything from ethics of geo-slavery to the technology of nano-bots – but also possible that our education system will NOT be able to keep up … This is a very big challenge all by itself.

#45. Here's an unlikely wildcard but something that is happening already: direct brain computer interface technology, in which no mouse or keyboard is required. Right now today it’s used simply for managing games like Pong, but it's from these tiny acorns, mighty and complicated oaks (direct brain-interface geodesign systems) may yet grow.

Predictions 46 – 48: 2 Warnings Finally I started with a big number; and I will close with two small ones. “Two plus Two” – which makes “Four” of course; but may also make for a very complicated world, as we have: (#46) nearly certain global warming of 2 or more degrees C.; and (#47) very possible ocean level rise of 2 meters more or less. In that nearly certain future we will have a very complicated ‘FGDC’ to respond to (that’s a “Future GeoDesign Challenge” – for those who may know some other meaning for that 4 – letter acronym! )

#48. And in so doing we will certainly need to take advantage of the incredible array of satellites now orbiting the earth – and increasingly, exploring the whole solar system!

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Fig. 1: The branched tree of (too) many alternative futures, by Carl Steinitz, 2004

References

Benyus, J. M. (2002), Biomimicry – innovation inspired by nature. New York, Perennial. Ervin, S. M. (2010), On the Necessity of Diagrams, http://video.esri.com/watch/55/

on-the-necessity-of-diagrams. Ervin, S. M. (2011), Object Oriented GeoDesign, .http://video.esri.com/watch/195/

object-oriented-geodesign ESRI, http://www.geodesignsummit.com/index.html Hargrove, E. C. (Ed.) (1986), Beyond spaceship earth : environmental ethics and the solar

system. San Francisco, Sierra Club Books. Jackson, R. J. (2012), Designing healthy communities. San Francisco, Jossey-Bass. Kintisch, E. (2010), Hack the planet: science's best hope-or worst nightmare-for averting

climate catastrophe. Hoboken, N.J., Wiley. Mau, B. (2004), Massive Change. London/New York, Phaidon. Meadows, D. H. (2008), Thinking in systems: a primer. White River Junction, Vt., Chelsea

Green Pub. RPI, Development of a Multi-Scale Monitoring and Health Assessment Framework for

Effective Management of Levees and Flood-Control Infrastructure Systems, http://www.nist-rpi.org/index.html.

SDSS, Geodesign Knowledge Portal, http://www.spatial.redlands.edu/geodesign/ ontology/?n=Software:SDSS.