GEO Work Plan Symposium, 4-6 June 2013 Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Greater use of EO...

1GEO Work Plan Symposium, 4-6 June 2013

Committee on Earth Observation Satellites

Greater use of EO satellite data in DRM &

Closer cooperation between space agencies and DRM community

Ivan Petiteville (ESA), CEOS Disasters WG

Disasters Risk Reduction and EO: a GEO perspective

2Disasters Risk Reduction and EO: a GEO perspective

• Increasing needs in disaster risk management

• EO from space: a great potential

• Disaster management: a top priority for CEOS

• Cooperation with major Stakeholders.

Agenda





Increasing Politicians’ Interest in DRM

Bill Clinton in Haiti© nydailynews

© www.jackofallthoughts.com

Bush - Katrina

© Deutsche WelleSchröder – Flood 2002

© United Nations

© Skynews

© Deutsche Welle

Aid from Jordan - Haiti

DRM gaining more political importance for economic, political and geopolitical reasons:• 2010, 385 natural disasters: 297 000 people killed worldwide,

217.0 million others affected, $ 123.9 billion of economic damages.

• Increase of economic impacts: growing urbanization (x2 in 2050) + increasing number of extreme events (x3 in 2100).

• Politicians very sensitive to consequences of disasters ; want to show leadership when a crisis strikes.

4CEOS DRM meeting, NASA GSFC, 13-14 May 2013

”Five of the ten costliest, in terms of money rather than lives, were in the past four years”

Article “Counting the cost of calamities”, The Ecomomist , dated 14 Jan 2013© The Economist (http://www.economist.com/node/21542755 )

http://www.economist.com/node/21542755

In last 5 years, increasing political attention on preparedness & mitigation while maintaining past level of efforts on response & reconstruction Disaster risk considerations in land-use planning and building may be 4 times less expensive than rebuilding or repairing infrastructure damages . Mortality can be reduced by 40 %.

World Bank: return on investments in disaster prevention is between 400% and 700%

Strong political presence at major recent events related to DRM: growing interest by Politicianse.g. Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (2005), Global Platform for

Disaster Risk Reduction (conferences in 2007, June 2009, May 2011)

Increasing Politicians’ Interest in DRM (cont’)

Increasing Organizations' Interest in DRM - Disaster Risk Reduction

Growing international engagement (financial, programmatic, ..) by international organizations e.g. World Bank, UN agencies, EC, G8,..

- World Bank: Natural disaster assistance : about 10% of total WB commitments between 1984 and 2005. Since 1980, more than 500 operations (US$40 billion).

- UN International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) created in 2000.

- WMO Disaster Risk Reduction started in 2003 (one of 4 GFCS’ priorities)

- European Commission: 2007: “disaster prevention” inserted in Lisbon Treaty; 2010: development of integrated approach to disaster management addressing response, preparedness and prevention activities; 2014-2020 €455 million-budget proposed for Civil protection and future European Emergency Response Capacity

Ban Ki-Moon - Floods in Pakistan (2010) Humanitarian aid from EC to Cambodian flood victims (2011)


Agenda





27th CEOS PlenaryMontréal, Canada

5-6 November, 2013

9

Satellite EO and DRM Community

Satellites have a unique role to play to support DRM as complement to traditional observing systems

On User Community’s side:• In past 10 years, several programmes aiming at creation of several

services in response to requirements of crisis management e.g. • International Charter, the European Copernicus Emergency Response

Service, UNITAR/UNOSAT, as well as several national and private services..

• Growing production of geospatial info derived from EO satellite data by mapping services e.g. maps in the aftermath of sudden disasters.

• But part of the disaster community not aware of potential satellite contributions to all phases of DRM, in areas such as land use planning, assets exposure, hydrometeorological forecasting, automatic change detection, damage assessment, recovery planning, ...

• Local users are still missing the capabilities to access and exploit the information derived from EO satellite data.

../..


5-6 November, 2013

10

Satellite EO and DRM Community (cont’)

On Space Agencies’ side:• Very active in response phase with rapid provision of data e.g. to

mapping services. Active also in generation of hi-res DMs.• Growing involvement in other phases but looking for more information

relative to users’ needs and priorities in DRM. A working interface / dialog with stakeholders, practitioners and scientific & operation users of the DRM sector is required.

• Local DRM-related activities by individual national Space Agencies.• Still obstacles to be removed on mission operators’ side e.g. data

availability or data policies and costs. • Space Agencies used to cooperate at international level for an increased

efficiency e.g. Disaster Charter, Supersites, Sentinel-Asia,..• Space agencies very active in Climate Change providing free data also

useful to DRM e.g. soil moisture and land cover for landslides

Cooperation between DRM users and satellite operators.. • Cooperation needs to be further developed to understand needs and to

remove barriers in order to deliver useful information down to end-users.

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E.g. some areas are not or poorly covered by in-situ monitoring systems• Lack of reference data in developing countries and in remote regions

Example 1: Volcanoes: • ~ 100 episodes of volcanic unrest are observed yearly, worldwide. • Less than 10% of active volcanoes are monitored on an on-going basis

(by ground-, air-, and/or space-based sensors). • ~ 90% of potential volcanic hazards either monitored occasionally or

not at all.

Satellite EO: a complement to traditional observing systems

Holocene active volcanoes (Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution, www.volcano.si.edu/world/find_regions.cfm)


Example 2: Earthquakes: • Alpine-Himalayan belt: 10,000 km from European Alps to western China, and

2,000 km wide.

• Many earthquakes in this region occur on faults that were not identified prior to the event or whose hazard had been previously underestimated. – E.g. Bam earthquake* occurred on a fault not identified prior to earthquake, in

a city that had not experienced strong shaking for at least 2000 years .

Satellite EO: a complement to traditional observing systems

(cont’)

*: M6.5, Iran, 2003; about 30,000 casualties

Source: Intro to geology. Bakersfield College


Satellite-based geo-information can contribute to the entire cycle of risk management including prevention, warning, response and recovery.

The contribution of satellite EO primarily concerns hazard and exposure mapping:• Hazard assessment:

– Hazard mapping: historical hazard impact mapping, hazard inventories, hazard susceptibility mapping (not on an emergency basis)

– Crisis/Damage mapping: disaster response (assessment on an emergency basis)

• Exposure: background reference mapping, asset mapping (urban/infrastructure mapping, crop mapping).

• Vulnerability: level of risk to a given population or built environment.

Satellites’ Potential Contribution


Main geo-information requirements for which satellite EO can contribute are :• Disaster response - natural and man-made hazards: support to Crisis

Mapping/Damage Assessment• Early Warning/Alert of natural hazards • Critical infrastructure monitoring • Post Disaster Needs Assessment (to support the evaluation of early and long-

term recovery needs and priorities) • Support to Recovery / Reconstruction / Rehabilitation (Natural Disasters) • Exposure Mapping to support Preparedness/Mitigation, Early Warning &

Response • Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment (geo-hazards, hydro-meteorological

hazards, climatological hazards, technological hazards)

Satellites’ Potential Contribution (cont’)


Satellite data ALONE however cannot meet the needs of HFA monitoring.

– Data must be integrated into traditional disaster management processes and in DRM tools specifically adapted to real user needs to map hazards, evaluate asset exposure and model vulnerability.

EO satellite data is a complementary data source to ground data in many countries .

– in some cases, only source of information, either because of limited or lacking in-situ information.

Satellite observations can supply regular, detailed updates on the status of hazards on a global, regional or national basis.

Satellites’ Potential Contribution (cont’)

Space agencies actively involved in DRM through national programmes and international initiatives, with major focus on Response phase.

Multi-lateral cooperation agreements e.g.:– International Charter Space & Major Disasters (15 members)– Sentinel Asia (Asia Pacific region) – European Copernicus Emergency Response Service

CEOS Agencies contribute significantly to some GEO disaster-related initiatives such as Regional end-to-end Flood Monitoring pilots in Caribbean and Namibia, the Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories or Volcanic Ash Monitoring

Space Agencies’ Current Involvement


• An international collaboration to rapidly supply at no cost imagery to support the immediate disaster response phase

• 15 Space Agencies & Commercial Satellite Operators, +20 satellites .

• 24/7 operational system

• Aims to service operational users, not science users

International Charter Space and Major Disasters

• 370+ Charter Activations in 110+ countries since 2000.


Response Phase: Damage Mapping

Comparative map of damage caused by Typhoon Haiyan, PhilippinesSource: GeoEye-1 and WorldView-2Acquired: GeoEye-1: 23/02/2012 / WorldView-2: 11/11/2013Copyright DigitalGlobe Map produced by JAXA



Impact of Typhoon Haiyan which hit the Philippines on November 8 2013; Tacloban area observed on 7 Apr and 13 Nov 2013 by a Pléiades satellite; Copyright: CNES 2013, Astrium Services - Spot Image.

Damage assessment map San Remigio (South), PhilippinesSource: Pleiades and WorldView-1Acquired: Pleiades: 02/09/2013 and 14/11/2013 WorldView-1: 11/11/2013Copyright Pleiades © CNES 2013 - Distribution: Spot Image S.A., all rights reserved . WorldView-1 © European Space Imaging 2013Map produced by DLR/ZKI


Destruction in Tabontabon Town, Leyte Province, PhilippinesSource: WorldView-2Acquired: 10/11/2013Copyright DigitalGlobeMap produced by UNITAR/UNOSAT


Disaster impact map - Daanbantayan, Cebu Island, Medellin area, PhilippinesSource: Pleiades-1BAcquired: 14/11/2013Copyright CNES 2013 - Distribution: Astrium Services/Spot Image S.A., all rights reserved Map produced by SERTIT


Satellite EO for all DRM Phases

Support to DRM in Urban Land

Example of precise terrain deformation monitoring product at very high spatial resolution: TerraSAR-X PSI-derived terrain deformation map of Barcelona Port.

Colour coding indicates subsidence rate measured over Jan-Nov 2009:• Green: stable areas • Red: 15 cm/year.

Credits: Altamira Information; TerraSAR-X data: copyright Astrium Geo Information Services. Background image: Microsoft Bing Maps.


Refined risk assessment (up to date localisation and characterization of the asset at risk).

Information to support prevention plan elaboration.

Support anticipation (e.g. forecasting and early warning/alert) as well as crisis management operations

Regularly updated maps of areas subject to natural hazards, up-to-date and detailed information on human settlements and infrastructures.

Critical Asset Mapping

VHR IKONOS imagery and highlights areas prone to flood risk (yellow) and building with recent construction date (red). Credits: Luxspace, Institut Gabriel Lippmann, Risk-EOS, ESA.


Trans-boundary impact of volcanoes. – e.g. 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption: ~100,000 flights cancelled affecting ~10

million passengers (about half of the world's air traffic) during one week.

Satellite EO data suitable for volcanoes and volcanic ash monitoring:– Terrain elevation measurements and terrain deformation monitoring.

InSAR used for early detection of magma injection and for monitoring the stability of the underlying structure of a volcano.

– Infrared and multispectral sensors are useful in particular thermal anomalies and estimates of gas and aerosol composition.

Historical analysis using EO data to help identify and characterise eruption types and their probability of occurrence.

Volcanic monitoring

Soufrière Hills volcano (Montserrat, 20 May, 2006). SO2 retrievals on 7 consecutive days, from AIRS on board EOS-Aqua, to measure atmospheric profiles of temperature, moisture and trace gases. Credit Fred Prata, NILU, Norway.


Agenda






Based on positive experience from individual space agencies and on successful international initiatives, CEOS Members have decided to increase their international cooperation on disaster risk management.

2-year study phase initiated end of 2011 to study the potential role of space agencies in CEOS framework.

Working Group on Disaster (WGDisasters) created in Nov. 2013 with precise objectives with specific focus on Disaster Risk Reduction

Several new targeted activities initiated to serve objectives.

CEOS and DRM

CEOS Vision for DRM

CEOS seeks to demonstrate space agencies’ capacity to provide the right EO data and facilitate value adding to generate high-value information…

…and in so doing position EO from Space in the 2015 post-Hyogo framework for action

Top Objectives: 1. Increase and strengthen the contribution of satellite EO to disaster risk

management through coordinated ‘enlarged actions’

2. Raise the awareness of politicians, decision-makers and major stakeholders of the benefits of using satellite EO in all phases of DRM

How ?

Improve the coordination of satellite EO observations and act to improve distribution of EO satellite data and to foster its use by DRM users

A) Foster the use of EO data in support to DRM by:1. Increase awareness of all DRM users of on the benefits of EO data.

2. Maintain/enhanced relevant EO scientific research and application development.

3. Promote the CEOS disaster activities as well as the major disaster-related activities from space agencies executed outside the CEOS framework such as Sentinel Asia, International Disaster Charter, SERVIR, …

4. Liaison and interface with international decision-makers addressing DRM.

5. Establish a close dialogue with UN experts to ensure proper positioning of EO data from space in next 2015-2025 Post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2) and participate actively to the 2015 WCDRR (Sendai, Japan).

WGDisasters’ Goals & Objectives


A) Foster the use of EO data in support to DRM by (cont’):6. Improve the coordination of disaster-related activities undertaken by the CEOS

Agencies

7. Ensure the coherency and the proper coordination of CEOS Agencies resources that support disaster-related activities undertaken by CEOS.

8. Facilitate EO data access for DRM-related activities.

9. Assess the long-term sustainability of both data provision by space agencies and the value-added services that produces the right information for the end users. Identify potential donors.

10.Develop a realistic and coherent observing strategy aimed at responding as well as possible to prioritized user needs and implement solutions involving users


B) Ensure close cooperation with User Community by:11. Interface the major stakeholders and other representatives of the users

communities involved in disaster risk management to better understand and assess their needs and priorities, taking into account the resources available in the CEOS agencies.

12.Assess prioritized needs of User Community involved in all DRM phases from data providers to final end-user, in close cooperation with major stakeholders such as UN ISDR, World Bank,...

13.Maintain a close dialogue with GEO Disaster SBA community




3 initial themes selected: Floods, Seismic risks, Volcanoes

3 Pilots Demonstrators defined by 3 teams of Experts• 35 Experts from 10 CEOS Agencies; 26 from non-CEOS organizations

representing the user communities at local/national or regional levels• e.g. academia, civil protection, UN agencies, operational resource

management agencies, ..

• EO data requirements based on real and prioritized user needs.• Maximum reuse of existing projects, initiatives & assets from CEOS agencies

together with targeted new activities to bridge gaps. • Synergy with GEO disaster-related activities• Include capacity building activities• Demonstration period 2014-2016 with significant outcomes for the 2015 World

Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction – WCDRR (UN, Japan).

“Recovery Observatory”:• Sharing EO data to support recovery from catastrophic disaster. Cross-hazards.

New CEOS DRM Pilots

SIT Technical WorkshopPasadena, California, USASept 11-12, 2013

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Pilots’ Requirements from Real Users Needs

Generation of EO requirements for the 3 pilots to address the users needs for all DRM phases.

EO Requirements based on real user needs e.g. for Floods:• Global: Univ. Maryland, Dartmouth Flood Observ., Deltares • Caribbean: CIMH• Southern Africa: Namibia Department of Hydrology• Southeast Asia: Mekong, MRC-IKMP, Java, Indonesian Ministry of

Public Works

On-going definition of Global Satellite Observation Strategy for DRM to respond to EO requirements. Strategy with many components, but centered on the provision of

regular data sets to key user communities, and enabling support for capacity development.


5-6 November, 2013

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Pilots Overview

Pilot Deliverables

Floods • Global Flood Dashboard (single access for multiple existing systems)

• Three regional pilots showcasing end user benefit of frequent high spatial resolution observations (Caribbean, Southern Africa, Mekong/Java)

Seismic Risks • Demonstrator for EO-based global strain map (main focus on Turkey, Himalayas and Andes)

• Exploitation platform for large data set analysis (strain map, supersites)

• Rapid scientific products for 4 to 6 earthquakes per year (>M5.8)

Volcanoes • Demonstrate feasibility of systematic global monitoring in regional arc (Latin America)

• Develop new EO-based monitoring products at supersites• Real-time in-depth monitoring of one ‘100-year’ category major

eruption

Recovery Observatory

• Provide multi-year EO-based database to support recovery from one catastrophic disaster

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WHY? Most prevalent global disaster – largest number of events and largest number of people affected (500 million people every year), greatest economic impact (1-2 billion $ /yr in the 1970s ; 15 billion $/yr today); EO can track flood waters, predict affected areas and support prevention.

WHAT’S MISSING? Lots of rapid mapping for response today, but little flood cycle management using EO. Full-cycle real-time flood monitoring using high resolution optical and radar data brings greatly improved accuracy. Application of EO globally is either at low resolution on large geographical zones or high resolution over limited areas on ad hoc basis; few linkages between global and regional efforts.

Photo Telecom sans frontière

Floods – the need

Application of satellite EO to the full cycle of flood management at global and regional/local scales by:Objective A – Integrating information from existing near-real time global flood monitoring and modeling systems in a Global Flood Dashboard for hydro-met modelling by science users;(higher temporal and lower spatial resolution)Objective B – Delivering EO-based flood mitigation, warning and response products and services through regional end-to-end pilots for local authorities in:

The Caribbean (with particular focus on Haiti);Southern Africa, including Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Malawi;Southeast Asia (with particular focus on the lower Mekong Basin and Java, Indonesia).

(higher spatial and lower temporal resolution)Objective C – Encouraging regional in-country capacity to access EO data and integrate into operational systems and flood management practices.

Flood Pilot Objectives


5-6 November, 2013

Flood Pilot – regional areas of focus

High spatial resolution full-cycle flood monitoring in Caribbean/Central America, Southern Africa and Southeast Asia (Mekong and Java); will be used to validate high

temporal resolution low spatial resolution global work

WHY?Over 300,000 people have been killed by volcanoes since the 1600s, and hundreds of millions live within 20 km of an active volcano today.WHAT’S MISSING? • Only ~10% of the ~1500 active volcanoes in the world are being monitored in some way• Current EO data collection is not coordinated for volcano monitoring• Need partners to exploit data that are currently collected• Need systematic observations before, during, and after volcanic events

Merapi, Indonesia, erupting in 2010. From Pallister and others, in press

Volcanoes – the need

Stepping-stone towards the long-term objectives of the Santorini Report:

1) global background observations at all Holocene volcanoes;

2) weekly observations at restless volcanoes;

3) daily observations at erupting volcanoes;

4) development of novel measurements;

5) 20-year sustainability; and

6) capacity-building.

Three main outcomes for volcano observatories and VAACs:

A. Demonstration of systematic monitoring in Latin America

B. Development of new products for geohazard supersites initiative GSNL (Hawaii & Iceland)

C. Showcase 1 major eruption 2014-2016Deformation of several volcanoes was detected in an arc-wide InSAR survey of South America by Pritchard and Simons, 2002.

Volcano Pilot Objectives


5-6 November, 2013

Volcano Pilot – regional areas of focus

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Regional monitoring demonstration in Latin America; new product development over existing volcanic GSNL (Hawaii and Iceland); single volcano response demonstration if

major event in 2014-2016

WHY? Most devastating global disaster – large number of events and largest number of total deaths (large events); EO can support increased understanding of nature and extent of risk – cannot predict earthquakes. EO also supports response and other phases. WHAT’S MISSING? Large data collects over seismic strain belt (15% earth surface) to improve scientific knowledge of seismic hazard; partners to analyse data to generate surface strain model based on interferometric SAR analysis. GSNL provide EO data for improved scientific understanding but only over limited areas. Science products for EQ response (M>5.8 not covered by GSNL, data types for science not covered by Charter).

Precise terrain motion product to support Crustal Block Boundaries analysis over the Cephalonia Island, Greece, Standard Deviation of Velocity Field using ENVISAT Descending (2003 – 2008), Credits: NKUA.

Seismic Hazards – the need

Objectives based on priorities elaborated through an open review process in the framework of the Santorini Conference.

The three objectives are: A) Support the generation of globally self-consistent strain rate estimates and the mapping of active faults at the global scale by providing EO InSAR and optical data and processing capacities to existing initiatives, such as the iGSRM for science users[Wide extent satellite observations]

B) Support and continue the geohazard supersites initiative (GSNL) for seismic hazards & volcanoes for science users[Satellite observations focused on supersites]

C) Develop and demonstrate advanced science products for rapid earthquake response for civil protection authorities[Observation of earthquakes with M>5.8]

Seismic Hazards Pilot Objectives

Straining areas (seismic belts) and volcanoes of the world (Kreemer et al., 2003). Figure : GSNL Strategic Plan 2012.

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Strain estimation in Himalayan lift area, Turkey and the Andes; Validation zones in Turkey, California and Japan. GSNL exploitation platform in Hawaii and Iceland.

Seismic Pilot – regional areas of focus


Agenda






Cooperation with World Bank:• Between 2010 and 2012, 12 projects funded by ESA.

– Provision of various types of EO data used to extract data to serve World Bank projects .

• In 2013, 16 additional projects. Services will be delivered in 2014. • One of the themes of the collaboration is DRM, in particular DRR. Over 2009-

2014 implementation of 14 hazard mapping services, 11 asset mapping services for DRR and 10 additional mapping products overall covering pilot areas in Central and South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean.

Similar collaboration between ESA and Asian Development Bank. • DRM is one of the priority themes.

Example of On-going Cooperation in DRM between Space Agencies and Stakeholders

Source : http://go.worldbank.org/TEGPI83TW0

http://go.worldbank.org/TEGPI83TW0


Major Stakeholders in Disaster Management …• Satellite data has a wealth of information to address basic monitoring and verification

needs ..• … but Space Agencies are looking for major Stakeholders that can provide an interface

to the Disaster Management Community and that can define prioritized end-user needs for the next 10 – 20 years.

• CEOS space agencies seek to develop stronger relationships with international and regional coordinating agencies such as UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) or the World Bank Global Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR).

The partnership with the Climate Community as a model …• Strong partnership are already in place between Space Agencies and the User

Communities involved in initiatives related to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) such as GCOS.

• Similar cooperation model could be envisaged with disaster management community.

Closer cooperation between space agencies and DRM community

45Pictures from www.weburbanist.com, www.redsticknow.com, www.untasdamis.fr and Old Sarge

THANKYOU …

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