Genetic EYE ON THE MARKET MICHAEL CEMBALEST J.P. …
Transcript of Genetic EYE ON THE MARKET MICHAEL CEMBALEST J.P. …
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Last u p dat e d 6/1 0/2 022
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[1] Vaccination update
Table of Contents:
1. Vaccine types and locations ...........................................................................................................................2
2. “A pandemic (mostly) of the unvaccinated”: adverse outcomes in unvaccinated vs vaccinated people .............3
3. Vaccination overview .....................................................................................................................................7
4. Variant prevalence by country ...................................................................................................................... 10
5. New vaccines and antivirals ......................................................................................................................... 11
Latest Update:
Eric Topol at Scripps Research published this table on Omicron variants that are rapidly comprising a larger share of infections. Key points:
Significant increase in transmissibility vs Omicron BA.1
Higher immunity escape (susceptibility to virus despite vaccination or prior infection)
Reduced cross immunity with BA.1 (if you had BA.1 you can still get infected with these new variants)
More resistant to monoclonal antibodies
3 shot effectiveness vs hospitalization of ~80% is still high compared to 90%+ for pre-Omicron variants but 2 shots doesn’t look good
No news yet on effectiveness vs more recent variants
Omicron specific vaccine may be released soon, but effectiveness vs variants with high immunity escape is uncertain
Omicron variant update BA.1 BA.2 BA.2.12.1 BA.4 and BA.5
Transmissibility increase Reference 30% increase 25% over BA.2 ~10% over BA.2
Immune escape Reference + +++ +++
Ability to infect cells Reference + ++ Like BA.1
Cross-Immunity w/ BA.1 Reference Mostly preserved Reduced Reduced
Resistance to monoclonal
antibodiesReference ++ +++ +++
Places where dominant Outcompeted >100 countries US regions (NJ, NY) South Africa
2-shot effectiveness vs
hospitalizations
32%
(95% CI 11, 49)
50%
(95% CI 7, 73)TBD TBD
3-shot effectiveness vs
hospitalizations
81%
(95% CI 75, 85)
83%
(95% CI 71, 91)TBD TBD
Source: Eric Topol, Scripps Research. May 4, 2022.
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Coronavirus
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Vaccine types and locations
The table outlines the approaches that vaccine companies are taking to provoke an antibody response. Vaccines train the immune system to recognize the disease-causing part of a virus so that when people are infected, their bodies are prepared to fight the virus with a combination of antibody and T-cell responses. Historically, most vaccines contained either weakened viruses or the signature proteins of the virus (Types 1, 2 and 3), but the first approved vaccines for COVID were genetic (Types 4 and 5).
TypeMethod of provoking antibody response
to SARS-CoV-2
Drug companies
(bold = approved)
Existing licensed
vaccines
1
Attenuated
A live but weakened coronavirus that will infect cells and cause
them to make viral proteinsCodagenix
Measles, yellow fever,
mumps, smallpox, polio
2
Attenuated
A "killed" coronavirus that will get recognized as foreign matter
by the immune system
Sinovac1, SinoPharm2,
Covaxin3Polio (dev countries)
3
Recombinant
Recombinant coronavirus proteins, produced industrially in
outside cell cultures, which are recognized as foreign matter by
the immune system
GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi,
Novavax4
Tetanus, pertussis, flu,
shingles
4
Genetic
(vector vaccines)
A different virus (human or ape adenovirus, measles, etc) that is
engineered to include genetic components coding for the SARS-
CoV-2 spike proteins, which causes the body to produce them
CanSino5,
Oxford/AstraZeneca6,
J&J7, Gamaleya8
Ebola
5
Genetic
DNA or RNA that will be taken up by cells and will cause them to
make coronavirus proteins
Moderna, Inovio,
BioNTech/Pfizer
1: Sinovac has been approved for use in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Turkey and several other countries
2: Sinopharm has been approved in China, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Hungary and Jordan and several other countries
3: Covaxin has been approved for emergency use in India, Iran, Philippines, Paraguay, Guatemala and several other countries
4: Protein vaccines are not new, but the Novavax vaccine is combined with a proprietary adjuvant which has not been approved for use before
5: CanSino has been approved for use in China, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Chile, Indonesia, and several other countries
6: Oxford/AstraZeneca's vaccine has been approved for use in the UK, Europe, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, and several other countries
7: J&J's vaccine has been approved for use in the US, UK and more than 60 other countries.
8: Gamaleya's vaccine has been approved in Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico, Hungary, Iran, UAE, and several other countries
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2021.
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Novavax
Sputnik V
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Sinopharm
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Moderna
Pfizer/BioNTech
Vaccine type usage by country% of doses administered
Source: OWID, JPMAM. June 10, 2022.
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Coronavirus
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“A pandemic (mostly) of the unvaccinated”: adverse outcomes in unvaccinated vs vaccinated people
Age and population adjusted data on vaccinated and unvaccinated people
The first two charts show COVID hospitalization and mortality outcomes from multiple states as reported by COVID-NET (250 acute care hospitals) and by select state health departments reporting directly to the CDC. The subsequent charts show the same gaps for states that publish high-frequency downloadable information to the public. Other states like Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Texas, Alaska and Arizona also publish this data, but in PDF form that also tends to be more dated; the trends are similar. As the Omicron variant spreads, these charts will be important markers of evolving vaccine efficacy and risks to the unvaccinated.
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Jan '21 Mar '21 May '21 Jul '21 Sep '21 Nov '21 Jan '22 Mar '22
Unvaccinated
Fully vaccinated
Age adjusted hospitalizations: 250 acute-care hospitalsDaily hospital admissions, # per mm
Source: CDC, JPMAM. March 19, 2022. Universe: CA, CO, CT, MD, MI, MN, NM, NY, OH, OR, TN, UT.
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Age adjusted mortality: 20 US statesDaily deaths, # per mm
Source: CDC. February 19, 2022. Universe: AL, AZ, AR, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IN, LA, MD, MA, MI, NE, NM, NY, PA, RI, TN, UT.
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250 acute-care hospitals: 50-64 year old hospitalizationsDaily hospital admissions, # per mm
Source: CDC, JPMAM. March 19, 2022. Universe: CA, CO, CT, MD, MI, MN, NM, NY, OH, OR, TN, UT.
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250 acute-care hospitals: 65 and older hospitalizationsDaily hospital admissions, # per mm
Source: CDC, JPMAM. March 19, 2022. Universe: CA, CO, CT, MD, MI, MN, NM, NY, OH, OR, TN, UT.
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Age-adjusted vaccine efficacy (rhs)
New York: infectionsDaily infections, # per million %
Source: NY Department of Health, JPMAM. May 8, 2022.
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Age-adjusted vaccine efficacy (rhs)
New York: hospitalizationsDaily hospital admissions, # per million %
Source: NY Department of Health, JPMAM. May 8, 2022.
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Coronavirus
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Overall
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Seattle: age adjusted infectionsDaily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
Source: Washington Department of Health. May 25, 2022.
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Seattle: age adjusted hospitalizationsCurrent hospitalizations, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
Source: Washington Department of Health. May 25, 2022.
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California: hospitalizationsDaily hospital admissions, # per mm
Source: California Department of Health. May 8, 2022.
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California: mortalityDaily deaths, # per mm
Source: California Department of Health. May 8, 2022.
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Virginia: hospitalizationsWeekly hospital admissions, # per mm
Source: Virginia Department of Health. May 7, 2022.
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Virginia: mortalityWeekly deaths, # per mm
Source: Virginia Department of Health. May 7, 2022.
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Utah: age adjusted hospitalizationsWeekly hospital admissions, # per mm
Source: Utah Department of Health. May 8, 2022.
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Utah: age adjusted mortalityWeekly deaths, # per mm
Source: Utah Department of Health. May 1, 2022.
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Coronavirus
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Latest data from the Robert Koch Institute
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Germany: 60 and older infectionsCurrent infections, # per mm
Source: Robert Koch Institute. April 28, 2022.
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Germany: 60 and older hospitalizationsCurrent hospitalizations, # per mm
Source: Robert Koch Institute. April 28, 2022.
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Germany: Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection
Source: Robert Koch Institute. April 28, 2022.
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Germany: Vaccine efficacy against hospitalization
Source: Robert Koch Institute. April 28, 2022.
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Germany: Vaccine efficacy against ICU admission
Source: Robert Koch Institute. April 28, 2022.
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Germany: Vaccine efficacy against mortality
Source: Robert Koch Institute. April 28, 2022.
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Coronavirus
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Switzerland: mortality
Source: OWID, JPMAM. May 14, 2022.
Weekly deaths, # per mm
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Chile: mortality
Source: OWID, JPMAM. May 14, 2022.
Weekly deaths, # per mmP
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OECD countries by highest share of unvaccinated peopleNot fully vaccinated people as % of population
Source: OWID, JPMAM. Jun 9, 2022. Largest 25 OECD countries by GDP
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Source: OWID, JPMAM. Jun 9, 2022. Largest 25 OECD countries by GDP
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Coronavirus
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Vaccination overview
Our World in Data (OWID) is a project of the Global Change Data Lab and the University of Oxford focusing on aggregating data for public use. OWID’s international COVID-19 vaccination dataset aggregates vaccination reports from government agencies and health ministries across 200 countries and territories.
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Unique people vaccinated
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US vaccination progress% of US population
Source: OWID, JPMAM. June 9, 2022. Dotted lines indicate estimated vaccination rate based on trailing 7-day average vaccination rate.
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US daily vaccinationsMillions of people, 7-day average
Source: OWID, CDC, JPMAM. June 10, 2022.
Partial vaccinations(1st of 2 doses)
Full vaccinations
(2nd of 2 doses)
Full vaccinations
(1 dose) Boostershots
South AfricaRussia
IndonesiaMexicoTurkey
CzechiaIndia
United StatesNetherlands
IsraelSaudi Arabia
United KingdomSweden
GermanyBrazil
ItalyJapan
FranceVietnam
IrelandDenmark
CanadaMalaysia
Hong KongAustralia
New ZealandPortugal
South KoreaChinaChile
AfricaM East
EM Asia ex-ChinaSouth/Central America
Developed RegionsContinental W. Europe
Dev Asia
South AfricaRussiaIndonesiaMexicoTurkeyCzechiaIndiaUnited StatesNetherlandsIsraelSaudi ArabiaUnited KingdomSwedenGermanyBrazilItalyJapanFranceVietnamIrelandDenmarkCanadaMalaysiaHong KongAustraliaNew ZealandPortugalSouth KoreaChinaChile
AfricaM EastEM Asia ex-ChinaSouth/Central America Developed RegionsContinental W. EuropeDev Asia
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Fully vaccinated w/ booster Fully vaccinatedCountry/region vaccination rates
Source: OWID, JPMAM. June 9, 2022.
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Coronavirus
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RI
VT
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DC HI
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NJ
VA
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DE
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PA IL FL
US
A
WI
UT
NE
AK IA SD
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NV MI
OH
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MO
ND ID IN GA
AR
TN
LA
MS
AL
WY
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10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%Fully vaccinated
Fully vaccinated w/ booster
Percent of population fully vaccinated and received boosterSorted in descending order by highest vaccination rate
Source: OWID, JPMAM. June 8, 2022.
Fully vaccinated people as percent of population
State RI VT ME CT MA DC HI NY MD NJ VA WA CA
Total population 83% 82% 80% 80% 80% 79% 79% 78% 76% 76% 74% 73% 73%
18-64 population 91% 86% 87% 87% 86% 83% 86% 86% 83% 84% 80% 80% 80%
18+ population 92% 88% 89% 89% 88% 85% 88% 88% 86% 86% 83% 83% 82%
65+ population 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 93% 93% 95% 94% 94% 95% 91%
State NM NH CO OR DE MN PA IL FL WI UT NE AK
Total population 72% 71% 71% 70% 70% 70% 69% 69% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63%
18-64 population 78% 75% 77% 75% 75% 75% 74% 75% 72% 70% 75% 70% 71%
18+ population 82% 80% 80% 79% 80% 79% 79% 78% 77% 76% 78% 75% 74%
65+ population 95% 95% 94% 92% 95% 95% 95% 89% 92% 95% 94% 93% 87%
State IA SD NC AZ TX KS NV MI OH WV OK KY SC
Total population 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 61% 61% 59% 58% 58% 58% 57%
18-64 population 67% 68% 66% 67% 70% 68% 68% 64% 63% 61% 64% 63% 61%
18+ population 73% 74% 72% 71% 73% 73% 72% 70% 68% 67% 69% 68% 67%
65+ population 94% 95% 94% 87% 88% 93% 85% 89% 88% 85% 89% 87% 88%
State MT MO ND ID IN GA AR TN LA MS AL WY USA
Total population 57% 56% 56% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 52% 51% 51% 67%
18-64 population 60% 61% 61% 60% 60% 61% 60% 59% 59% 57% 55% 55% 72%
18+ population 66% 66% 67% 66% 66% 66% 65% 65% 65% 63% 62% 61% 75%
65+ population 87% 85% 87% 88% 87% 84% 81% 85% 86% 84% 83% 85% 88%Source: OWID, CDC, JPMAM. June 9, 2022.
EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Coronavirus
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The table shows the number of people with at least 1 vaccination (referred to as unique people vaccinated), fully vaccinated individuals (which includes people who received a vaccine from a manufacturer with a 1-shot regimen such as J&J), and boostered individuals (people who completed the initial vaccine regimen and then received another shot). Partial vaccine completion tends to result in lower efficacy, with outcomes closer to unvaccinated people than fully vaccinated people. Vaccine efficacy varies substantially by manufacturer; as a result, the vaccinated share of the population is only a partial marker for protection and disease severity.
Unique ppl
vax (mm)
% of
pop.
Full vax
(mm)
% of
pop.
Boosters
(mm)
% of
pop.
Algeria 8.21 19% 6.85 16% 0.51 1%
Argentina 41.12 91% 37.49 83% 25.51 56%
Aruba 0.09 81% 0.08 75% - -
Australia 22.33 88% 21.63 85% 13.79 54%
Austria 6.83 76% 6.62 73% 5.27 59%
Bahamas 0.17 43% 0.16 41% 0.03 7%
Bahrain 1.24 73% 1.22 72% 0.99 58%
Bangladesh 129.11 78% 118.18 72% 24.04 15%
Belgium 9.25 80% 9.15 79% 7.51 65%
Belize 0.24 59% 0.21 53% 0.05 12%
Bermuda 0.05 81% 0.05 79% 0.04 59%
Bhutan 0.69 90% 0.67 87% 0.54 71%
Bolivia 7.21 62% 5.98 51% 1.58 14%
Botswana 2.17 92% 1.99 85% 0.37 16%
Brazil 184.25 87% 167.91 79% 99.87 47%
Brunei 0.44 100% 0.43 97% 0.30 69%
Bulgaria 2.09 30% 2.06 30% 0.76 11%
Cambodia 15.05 90% 14.33 86% 9.26 55%
Canada 32.75 87% 31.41 83% 21.64 57%
Chile 17.98 94% 17.54 92% 22.85 ####
China 1,290.84 90% 1,257.20 87% 779.98 54%
Colombia 42.29 83% 35.96 71% 12.46 24%
Costa Rica 4.44 87% 4.14 81% 2.30 45%
Croatia 2.31 56% 2.24 55% 0.59 14%
Cuba 10.67 94% 9.97 88% 7.30 64%
Czechia 6.96 65% 6.88 64% 4.22 39%
Denmark 4.83 83% 4.80 83% 3.64 63%
Dominican Rep. 7.23 67% 5.99 55% 2.36 22%
Ecuador 15.17 86% 13.99 79% 6.79 38%
Egypt 47.85 47% 35.33 35% 3.59 4%
El Salvador 4.61 71% 4.31 66% 1.92 30%
Estonia 0.86 65% 0.85 64% 0.47 36%
Ethiopia 24.77 22% 21.29 19% 0.35 0%
Finland 4.51 81% 4.33 78% 3.24 58%
France 54.42 83% 52.84 81% 38.64 59%
Georgia 1.63 41% 1.27 32% 0.08 2%
Germany 64.55 77% 64.52 77% 54.87 65%
Greece 7.92 76% 7.63 73% 6.07 58%
Guatemala 8.26 46% 6.27 35% 3.09 17%
Honduras 6.21 63% 5.44 55% 2.55 26%
Hong Kong 6.71 89% 6.36 85% 4.18 56%
Hungary 6.41 66% 6.20 64% 4.18 43%
Iceland 0.31 91% 0.29 85% 0.25 74%
India 1,012.87 73% 895.98 65% 36.38 3%
Indonesia 200.65 73% 167.82 61% 46.91 17%
Iran 64.55 77% 57.86 69% 27.55 33%
Ireland 4.09 83% 4.04 82% 3.06 62%
Israel 6.71 77% 6.14 71% 5.31 61%
Italy 50.79 84% 47.94 79% 40.71 67%
Jamaica 0.81 27% 0.70 24% 0.04 1%
Japan 103.64 82% 102.17 81% 76.26 60%
Kazakhstan 9.51 51% 9.29 49% 2.51 13%
Kenya 16.00 30% 12.64 24% 0.33 1%
Kuwait 3.43 80% 3.31 78% 1.31 31%
Laos 5.82 80% 5.08 70% - -
Source: OWID, JPMAM. June 9, 2022.
Unique ppl
vax (mm)
% of
pop.
Full vax
(mm)
% of
pop.
Boosters
(mm)
% of
pop.
Lebanon 2.69 39% 2.36 35% 0.59 9%
Libya 2.25 33% 1.17 17% 0.11 2%
Lithuania 1.95 72% 1.88 69% 0.93 34%
Malaysia 28.00 87% 27.11 84% 16.11 50%
Maldives 0.40 74% 0.38 71% 0.16 30%
Malta 0.48 100% 0.47 100% 0.39 90%
Mexico 88.05 68% 79.95 62% 53.06 41%
Morocco 24.93 68% 23.41 63% 6.43 17%
Myanmar 31.35 58% 26.11 48% 2.00 4%
Namibia 0.65 26% 0.58 23% 0.06 3%
Nepal 22.46 77% 19.97 69% 5.06 17%
Netherlands 12.81 75% 11.98 70% 9.28 54%
New Zealand 4.29 89% 4.11 85% 2.70 56%
Nigeria 30.68 15% 20.10 10% 0.94 0%
Norway 4.34 80% 4.04 75% 2.95 55%
Pakistan 135.41 61% 123.69 56% 9.62 4%
Panama 3.48 81% 3.11 72% 1.69 39%
Paraguay 3.94 55% 3.44 48% 1.43 20%
Peru 29.37 89% 27.36 83% 18.64 57%
Philippines 74.63 68% 70.01 64% 14.25 13%
Poland 22.73 60% 22.50 59% 12.12 32%
Portugal 9.72 95% 8.87 87% 6.51 64%
Qatar 2.63 91% 2.63 91% 1.64 57%
Romania 8.17 42% 8.11 42% - -
Russia 81.10 56% 74.00 51% 14.36 10%
Saudi Arabia 26.60 76% 24.96 72% 10.79 31%
Serbia 3.35 38% 3.28 37% 1.90 22%
Seychelles 0.08 85% 0.08 81% 0.04 38%
Singapore 5.02 86% 4.99 85% 4.14 71%
Slovakia 2.82 52% 2.77 51% 1.65 30%
Slovenia 1.27 61% 1.22 59% 0.66 32%
South Africa 21.86 37% 18.88 32% 3.29 6%
South Korea 45.06 88% 44.60 87% 37.56 73%
Spain 41.24 88% 40.51 87% 25.11 54%
Sri Lanka 17.07 80% 14.52 68% 7.99 37%
Sweden 7.84 78% 7.65 76% 5.40 53%
Switzerland 6.09 70% 6.00 69% 3.76 43%
Taiwan* 21.08 88% 19.09 80% 15.89 67%
Thailand 56.58 81% 52.62 75% 28.40 41%
Trinidad and Tobago 0.75 54% 0.71 51% 0.16 11%
Tunisia 7.23 61% 6.37 54% 1.26 11%
Turkey 57.84 69% 53.07 63% 36.82 44%
Ukraine 15.77 36% 15.15 35% 0.74 2%
United Arab Emirates 9.89 100% 9.70 98% 5.29 53%
United Kingdom 53.49 79% 50.00 74% 39.75 59%
United States 258.85 78% 221.60 67% 119.37 36%
Uruguay 2.99 86% 2.88 83% 2.63 76%
Uzbekistan 19.46 58% 15.23 46% 7.59 23%
Venezuela 22.16 78% 14.29 50% 0.65 2%
Vietnam 84.80 87% 79.46 82% 58.35 60%
Zambia na na 3.88 21% 0.03 0%
Zimbabwe 6.26 42% 4.55 31% 1.02 7%
Source: OWID, JPMAM. June 9, 2022.
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Variant prevalence by country
The table shows variant prevalence for select countries from GISAID, an open-source global science information sharing initiative. Only a handful of countries are sequencing more than 250 people per month, which is the threshold we use for inclusion. GISAID data may reflect data aggregated two weeks prior. In a world of rapidly changing variant shares, the numbers can change a lot when they’re updated.
Prevalence of variants of interest or concern in countries with significant sequencing in past 4 weeksB.1.1.7 - Alpha
(UK)
B.1.1.529/BA.2 - Omicron
(S Afr/Botswana)
B.1.640
(Congo/France)
B.1.617 - Delta
(India)
Australia 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belgium 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Brazil 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Canada 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Costa Rica 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Czech Republic 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denmark 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
France 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Germany 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
India 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ireland 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Italy 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Japan 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mexico 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Netherlands 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1%
Norway 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portugal 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Poland 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Singapore 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Africa 0.0% 97.8% 0.0% 1.8%
Spain 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweden 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Switzerland 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Thailand 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
United Kingdom 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
United States 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Source: GISAID, CDC. June 10, 2022. Includes countries with 250 or more total genomic sequences analyzed over trailing 4
weeks. Table does not show prevalence of specific mutations e.g. the D614G mutation, which was found in many circulating
variants in 2020.
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New vaccines and antivirals
Pfizer expects to deliver an Omicron-specific vaccine by March 2022. mRNA vaccines are relatively easy to alter compared to other vaccine types. Once the change is made to recognize the new spike protein, only 2 dozen people need to enroll in a trial to make sure the updated vaccine works after which it can be distributed (i.e., no need for Phase III trials and/or regulatory approval). This process could take 4-6 weeks. As you can imagine, the process of revaccinating everyone for a new variant would be logistically challenging if required
Some very good news now that that the clinical trial data for Pfizer’s COVID antiviral pill Paxlovid is available:
Paxlovid does not rely on the body’s immune system to combat the virus: it directly binds to the SARS-Cov-2 main protease before the virus begins high-level replication
The part of the virus that Paxlovid binds to has only undergone 1 mutation, rather than the 30 that occurred in the spike protein
Paxlovid must be taken within 3-5 days of symptom onset, and is taken with twice a day for 5 days along with Ritonavir (another viral protease inhibitor)
Trial results: reduced hospitalization risks by 89% in unvaccinated high risk patients, 94% risk reduction for those over 65. For lower risk individuals and vaccinated people, hospitalization risks declined by 70%
Trials were conducted during summer Delta wave; Pfizer believes based on lab studies that Paxlovid should retain “robust antiviral activity” vs Omicron
The FDA issued an emergency use authorization for Paxlovid in December 2021
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