GenerationHub Webcast May 2015
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Transcript of GenerationHub Webcast May 2015
![Page 1: GenerationHub Webcast May 2015](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042821/55d274ffbb61eb92208b45b6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
GenerationHub Quarterly Market Update May 27, 2015 Wayne Barber, Chief Analyst, GenerationHub Barry Cassell, Chief Analyst, GenerationHub Kent Knutson, Director Hub Services, PennWell Corporation
Sponsored by
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Power Generation Drivers and Uncertainties
• Capital spend stays high but end in sight • Clean Power Plan roll out this summer • EPA and States set stage for CPP gunfight • MATS implemented in April – coal retirements surge –
expected to peak this year • New NAAQS Standard in October could be costly • Both generation and electric demand show decline • Gas dominates the planning horizon but many projects
are being pushed out further • PTC/ITC fate weighs heavy for renewable industry • Energy Storage on the rise
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Coal Plant Retirements (MW)
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• GenerationHub is tracking $134bn (133 GW) in planned and under-construction natural gas projects and growing . . . .
• Utility scale solar and wind continue to expand
• Solar 15.3 GW in development next two years • Wind 33.2 GW from 2015 to 2018, with about 16.6
GW in 2015 alone – though some will likely be pushed into 2016 and beyond
• Nuclear 15.0 GW planned between now and 2024 • Hydro (mostly pumped-storage 12.5 GW – most
after 2018
Gas, Solar and Wind Continue to Dominate the Future
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US Current Electric Capacity First Year Online by Fuel Type (MW)
• Gas, Wind and Solar Continue to Dominate the New Generation Landscape
Investment 2015-18 • Gas: 118.9 GW (66%) • Wind: 33.2 GW (18%) • Solar: 17.4 GW (10%) • GWS: 169.5 GW (94%) • All: 180.8 GW
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New Capacity Additions (MW)
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Natural Gas Power Development (MW)
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Planned Gas Power by NERC Region – MW
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New Gas Generation in 2015
Operating (R) Refuel Project
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Nuclear Power in the News
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Nuclear Power in the News
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Clean Power Plan in the News
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Clean Power Plan in the News
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US Supreme Court Cases
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Energy Storage in the News
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Coal Plant Retirements by NERC Region (MW)
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Coal Retirements in the News
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Gas Power In the News
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Gas Power in the News
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Renewables in the News
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Renewables in the News
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US Wind Power Capacity – Annual and Cumulative (MW)
• AWEA supports extension of tax credits – costs down 58% in 5 years
• A lot of Christmas’s ruined – cycle of job losses and factory closures
• Is the PTC a tax revenue generator rather than subsidy
• Marchant-Pompeo bill (H.R. 1901) – supports phase out (by 2025) and is tax payer friendly – could save 35%
• Senator Grassley (R-IA) put tax credits in context
• YieldCos – enough projects now to support investment
• ITC set to expire in 2016 – will affect solar development
Fate of Renewable Energy Hinges on Tax Incentives
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Energy Storage on the Rise
• 185 GW Globally • Costs coming down sharply -
- $2,000/kWh in 2009 to $700/kWh in 2013 . . . . consider battery costs for EV’s – $1,300/kWh in 2005 – now around $400/kWh with goal to reach $150/kWh for commercialization
• >95% Utilization rate • SCE – 50 MW required – 261
MW procured • Faster and more effective
response • Oncor announced in 2014
interest in spending $5.2 billion on 5 GW of storage to firm up the grid
• Next legislative session to act will be in 2017
US Energy Storage Market Forecast
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RECENT TRENDS US Electric Utility Fuel Mix – Electric Generation
Most Recent 12 Months – Ending February 2015 Most Recent 12 months ending
February, 2015 compared with same period in prior year:
Gas 2.3% Coal -4.7% Nuclear 0.9% Hydro 1.6% Renew 8.7%
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Trends in Average Delivered Price of Coal and Natural Gas to US Electric Power Plants
Most Recent 12 months ending February, 2015 compared with same period in prior year: Electric Utilities • Coal up 0.8% to $2.39/mmBtu • Gas flat at $4.83 Independent Power Producers • Coal up 0.9% to $2.23/mmBtu • Gas down 9.8% to $4.34 Electric Rates • Residential up 3.5% to 12.6 c/kWh • All Customers up 3.0% to 10.5
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Ozone Non-Attainment Areas (2008 Standard, 0.075 ppm)
• National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
• 2011 EPA study estimated cost of reducing from .075 ppm to .070 ppm at $11bn
• More recent studies peg cost at $22bn to reach .070 and $38bn to reach .065
• Review stipulated range of .060 to .070 as target
• Compliance will benefit Solar, Wind and long-haul transmission in the west
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What can we expect going forward?
• The EPA Clean Power Plan will change based on comment period feedback – 2020 goals will likely decline
• PTC/ITC extension will be extended but not without fight • EPA Ozone standards could be costly – final rule in October • Gas power will be front and center stage over the near term
but over all development is dependent on load growth • Gas prices will stay competitive – but electric rates overall
will continue to increase as regulatory costs pile up • 2015 will be a year to remember . . . . 2016 a year to watch
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Questions and Answers
At this point we would like to field questions . . . .
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Thank You for Attending . . . .
To find out more about GenerationHub and to schedule a demonstration of our online intelligence service call or email . . . Laura Kresse (918) 831-9731 [email protected]
And don’t forget GenForum at POWER-GEN Natural Gas . . .