RREGIONAL EGIONAL SSCENARIO PLANNING STUDYCENARIO PLANNING STUDYGENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNINGGENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING

SCENARIO PLANNING 101:SCENARIO PLANNING 101:GENERAL OVERVIEWGENERAL OVERVIEW

EXPLORATION OF MULTIPLE FUTURESEXPLORATION OF MULTIPLE FUTURES

REALITY CHECKREALITY CHECK

ROLL CALLROLL CALL

What is scenario planning?

• Scenario planning provides a forum, process, set of tools, and measurable outcomes for communities of all sizes to contemplate future possibilities.

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Regional Applications of Scenario Planning include:

• Strategic Development Plans

• Long Range Transportation Plans

• Capital Improvements Prioritization

• Growth Audits

Why do scenario planning?

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• Explore the “what if’s” of a region’s future

• Consider the tradeoffs between different growth scenarios or policy decisions

• Re-frame local growth questions

• Answer what, where, when, and how growth should occur to meet a common vision

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them.”

-- Albert Einstein

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“Base Year” “Future Year”

Traditional Approach…Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a pre-defined future planning horizon (i.e., business-as-usual).

Study AreaScenario Planning Approach…

“Base Year” “Future Year Alternatives”

Stakeholders consider several plausible futures for a region assuming a pre-defined planning horizon.

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A

B

C

D

Scenario Planning Approach…

Stakeholders evaluate competing development alternatives and establish a common vision for regional policies and decision-making related to new growth and anticipated changes in the region.

Study AreaEvaluate the Alternatives…The different futures (alternatives) can be compared with one another or evaluated on their own merits with regard to many different quantitative and qualitative measures ranging from cost (or allocation of resources) in dollars to effects on transportation, open space, schools, and community facilities

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• Atlanta Regional Commission

• Nashville, TN

• Memphis, TN

• Charleston, SC (BCD COG)

• Durham, NC

• And many others…

Regions, cities, counties, and towns throughout the nation and nearby are doing scenario planning:

SCENARIO PLANNING TOOLKIT:SCENARIO PLANNING TOOLKIT:PLANNING PROCESSPLANNING PROCESS

AVAILABLE TOOLSAVAILABLE TOOLS

KEY STAKEHOLDERSKEY STAKEHOLDERS

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Growth Allocation Reality CheckSynthesize

Growth ScenariosLand

Suitability Analysis

Resource Maps

Public Outreach

Concept Maps

Trend Analysis Scenario Analysis

Model Calibration

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Scenario Planning Software

Development Chip Game

Regional TDM Focus Area Studies Project Website

Growth Forecasts

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• Regional Planning Agencies

• County Governments

• Local Cities & Towns

- Elected and Appointed Officials

- Local Staff

• Business and Real Estate Professionals

• Public Institutions

• General Public

Who can be Involved in a Regional Scenario Planning Study?

THE END GAME:THE END GAME:

THE BIG QUESTIONSTHE BIG QUESTIONS

SHARING THE RESULTSSHARING THE RESULTS

LINKAGE TO OTHER PLANNING INITIATIVESLINKAGE TO OTHER PLANNING INITIATIVES

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• How big do we want to be?

• Where do we want to grow?

• Are we growing sustainably?

• Can we pay for our growth?

• Are we still be proud of where we live?

Scenario planning helps to answer the big questions:

Study AreaThe outcomes of the plan are shared in graphical and data-intensive forms to clearly communicate ideas and findings to a broad cross section of people and to increase the utility of the findings for local and regional staff in decision-making.

Study Area• Regional Plans

- Long Range Transportation Plan

- State of the Region Report

• Local Government Plans

- Comprehensive Plan

- Zoning & Subdivision Ordinances

- Capital Improvements Plan

RREGIONAL EGIONAL SSCENARIO PLANNING STUDYCENARIO PLANNING STUDYGENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNINGGENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING

NOVEMBER 5, 2009NOVEMBER 5, 2009