General Election Opinion Poll - RedC Research & Marketing · 2018-05-21 · 2 Methodology and...

General Election Opinion Poll

May 2018

2

Methodology and Weighting

⁄ RED C interviewed a random sample of 1,015 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 10th-16th May 2018.

⁄ A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.

⁄ Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.

⁄ Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the two.

⁄ Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 8 to 10 are included as being those who will definitely go and vote.

⁄ In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO.

The 8th Amendment - Repeal or Retain -

4

(Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,015)

Crowd Predicts a Narrow Yes Victory - I

The difficulties in predicting many referenda over the last number of years has led RED C to investigate different ways to predict the outcome. The problems with predicting a

referendum are twofold.

Firstly, the subject in question is often contentious and divides the population, meaning people are less likely to want to share their views. The idea of “Shy” voters has been long

examined in election campaigns, by a number of academics and pollsters. The theory is that sometimes a position or party becomes so against the general views of the media and

society, that people become embarrassed to express the view that they support the said party or position. In this campaign the No side have not been as strongly represented in the

media, with little political party support on the side of the No camp, and the media firmly in the Yes camp. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if voters were “shy” about telling us they plan

to vote No. This is why, in our view, it is safer to assume that those claiming to be undecided are more likely to vote No.

Secondly, there is the issue of the “status quo” effect. A large part of the population is often not as interested in referenda as we may imagine, and often don’t really understand the

reasons behind any change to the constitution. When you don’t fully understand why change is suggested, and don’t feel the need to engage with an issue, why would you change the

constitution? It is far easier to leave the constitution as it is. This “status quo” effect has been registered in many Irish referenda of the past. The main impact on any polling analysis

is that a much larger proportion of undecided voters tend to end up voting No than might be expected. Voting No keeps the status quo of the current situation and removes any

danger from a change that could impact on you personally.

These two factors make correctly predicting a referendum through standard claimed recall very difficult, particularly when 20% of the population remain undecided or won’t tell you

how they will vote. One of the tools we use to try and uncover shy undecided voters is called the Wisdom of Crowds. As well as asking how our representative sample of voters claim

they will vote themselves, we also asked them to predict what they thought the final result might be. This aims to take into account the conversations that voters are having with

family and friends about the topic, and how they see people voting on Election Day. It means we collect information on what proportion of their friends and family are saying to each

other they will vote No, even if they won’t tell us directly.

The Wisdom of Crowds approach works best when families and friends are talking about a topic in detail, because that means our crowd is very well informed about how their friends

and family might vote. So, it worked very well in predicting the Marriage Referendum result, with 100% accuracy. But not so well at the last General Election, when it appears that few

people had worthwhile discussions with each other about how they might vote. Based on the level of conversations people are likely to have had already in the run up to the abortion

referendum, the approach should also work well in this referendum.

5


Crowd Predicts a Narrow Yes Victory - II

When we ask people in our final pre-election poll how they will vote, 56% say they will vote Yes, quite a lot higher than seen in other face to face polls. While 27% say they will vote No, 14% say they remain undecided and 3% refuse to tell us how they will vote. Compared to the last poll it appears that those undecided voters making up their minds in the past month are distributing to the same proportion as those who were already decided. If you were simply to remove the undecided voters and assume they will vote the same as those that tell us, you would end up with 67% Yes vs. 33% No.

However, we know from previous Referenda that just reallocating the undecided voters in this way simply isn’t an accurate way of doing things. The undecided voters that are left are far more likely to vote No due to the status quo and shy voter effects, and our analysis of their underlying attitudes to abortion suggest this will be the case again. In fact, our analysis suggests that 80-90% of undecided voters that go and vote, could vote No on the day.

We therefore look to our Wisdom of Crowd analysis to help us understand the real dynamic behind claimed voter intention. The Crowd predictions suggest a Yes vote of 56% and a No vote of 44%. This is potentially a much closer result than suggested by the claimed vote intention, with a 11% swing from yes to No. That tells us that despite our target suggesting they will vote Yes in greater numbers they are very conscious that many of their friends and family will vote No. It gives further credence to our decision to allocate at least 80-90% of the undecided voters to the No camp. Overall then we expect the Yes vote to be in and around 56%-58% at this stage, and barring any major interventions in the campaign over the next week that is the most likely result. Still enough for the Yes camp to win the referendum, but closer than top line vote intentions suggest.

6


Likelihood to Vote in Referendum regarding 8th Amendment

11%

6%

7%

9%

6%

2%

4%

2%

72%

81%

April 2018

May 2018

10I will definitely

vote

1-3 I am unlikely

to vote 4-7 8 9

Higher level of planned voting behaviour in the upcoming referendum.

7

The Wisdom of Crowd Approach

The Wisdom of Crowds is a the idea that the collective estimation of a random crowd is superior to even the smartest people within it, so long as a small number of conditions are met.

The conditions have been defined as follows.

1. Diversity of opinion: each person has some information, even if it is an eccentric interpretation of known facts.

2. Independence: opinions are not influenced by anyone else contributing to the crowd’s response (which cannot be the case within an opinion polling setting).

3. De-centralisation: people are able to draw on local knowledge.

4. Aggregation: some method exists for turning private judgements into a collective decision; for us, any opinion polling methodology is appropriate.

Now well into the Referendum campaign and based on significant success of this approach at the Marriage Equality referendum where it predicted the result exactly, we have used this approach again as a means of uncovering the possibility of “Shy” No voters.

The question asked people “as a bit of fun”, to try and estimate what they thought the result of the referendum would be, based on what they had heard so far during the campaign and the conversations they had had on the subject with friend and family.

The results show an interesting informed perception among voters that the result will be closer than is currently being measured by stated claimed vote intention itself.

8

60% 56% 53% 56%

20% 26%26%

27%

18% 16% 19% 14%

2% 2% 2% 3%

YES in favour of repealing

the 8th Amendment from the constitution

NOagainst repealing

the 8th Amendment

Don’t know

Stated Repeal the 8th

Vote Intention

Re-Allocation of Undecided Voters


Refused



Q. On 25th May this year a referendum will be held on whether or not to repeal the 8th Amendment in the constitution. How do you think that you will vote in the referendum? Will you vote to Repeal the 8th Amendment or vote to Retain the 8th Amendment in the constitution?

62% 58% 55% 58%

38% 42% 45% 42%

Jan28th

Mar25thSupport for Repealing or Retaining the 8th Amendment in the Constitution

Apr29th

May20th

Wisdom of Crowds Prediction



56%

44%NO

against repealing the 8th Amendment

Stated vote intention to interviewer on the phone

Past experience that SHY undecided voters most likely to vote No, RED C reallocate D/K

based on attitudinal analysis

Attitudinal analysis and past referendum behaviours suggest that the majority will vote No

Prediction of the result among our 1000 people sample

NOagainst repealing

the 8th Amendment

9




Past experience that SHY undecided voters most likely to vote No, RED C reallocate D/K based on attitudinal analysis

NOagainst repealing

the 8th Amendment


Q. On 25th May this year a referendum will be held on whether or not to repeal the 8th Amendment in the constitution. How do you think that you will vote in the referendum? Will you vote to Repeal the 8th Amendment or vote to Retain the 8th Amendment in the constitution?

Support for Repealing or Retaining the 8th Amendment in the Constitution

58% 58% 56%65% 63%

46%

66%52%

42%

71%55% 51% 49%

42% 42% 44%35% 37%

54%

34%48%

58%

29%

45% 49% 51%

TOTAL MALE FEMALE 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F DUBLIN ROL MUNSTER CONN/ULS

10

Support

Do Not Support

Don’t know

OireachtasCommittee

Recommendations


Refused

Support

Do Not Support

Support for Oireachtas Committee recommendations to allow abortions up to the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.

Q. Do you support or not support the Oireachtas committee recommendations to introduce legislation to allow abortion on demand during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy only or not?

51% 52% 47% 52%

27%33%

32%34%

21%13%

19%13%

1% 2% 2% 1%

53% 53% 49% 53%

47% 47% 51% 47%

Jan28th

Mar25th

Apr29th

May20th


Past experience that SHY undecided voters most likely to vote No, RED C reallocate D/K

based on attitudinal analysis

Attitudinal analysis and past referendum behaviours suggest that the majority will vote No

Party Vote Intention

12

First Preference Vote Intention – 20th May 2018

Fine Gael

34% +2

Ind. Alliance

4% +2

Fianna Fáil

25% =

Sinn Féin

16% +2

Ind. Candidates

9% -4

Solidarity-PBP

3% +1

SocialDemocrats

1% -1Green

2% =

Labour

6% =

If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)

(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)

Renua

0% -1

Other

0% -1Undecided Voters

13%

13

First Preference Vote Intention – May ‘182

6%

24

%

14

%

13

%

7%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

<1%

32

%

29

%

14

%

10

%

6%

3%

1% 2

%

2%

1%

1%

33

%

24

%

16

%

11

%

6%

1% 2

%

2%

2%

0%

<1%

32

%

25

%

14

%

13

%

6%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

34

%

25

%

16

%

9%

6%

4%

3%

1% 2

%

0%

0%

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4


(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)

Fine Gael

34%

Fianna Fáil

25%

Sinn Féin

16%

Ind. Candidate

9%Labour

6%

Ind. Alliance

4%

Solidarity-PBP

3%

SocialDemocrats

1%Green

2%

2016 Election

Renua

0%

Feb 25th

Mar25th

Other

0%

Apr29th

May 20th

14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2018

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Independent


(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )

Solidarity-PBP

Social Democrats

Renua

Ind Alliance

Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renuaseparately

25%

16%

34%

1%

9%

6%

2%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Other3%4%

15

First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2018

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renuaseparately

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Independent

Solidarity-PBP

Social Democrats

Renua

Ind Alliance

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Other

25%

16%

34%

1%

9%6%

2%3%4%

16

First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

GE2016

Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 July '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18



Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Independent

Solidarity-PBP

Social Democrats

Renua

Ind Alliance

Confidence and supply agreement

reached

Leo Varadkarbecomes leader of FG and Taoiseach

Other

25%

16%

34%

1%

9%

6%

2%3%4%

General Election Opinion Poll - RedC Research & Marketing · 2018-05-21 · 2 Methodology and...

Documents

Transcript of General Election Opinion Poll - RedC Research & Marketing · 2018-05-21 · 2 Methodology and...