General black box_analytics
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Decision Modeling & Implementation Support for Strategic Management April 2017 By Cem Şengezer
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Transcript of General black box_analytics
Decision Modeling & Implementation
Support for Strategic Management
April 2017
By Cem Şengezer
K.I.S.S. METHODS
INTRODUCTION
CORE of Modeling: Analytics
% 30 work hour
(hindsight, experience)
data processing
% 70 work hour
(insight, foresight)
information /optimization
Business Analytics
POSITIONING STRATEGY
BOARD
TACTICAL
BOARD
ANALYTICS (%70 work)
(predictive, prescriptive)
ANALYTICS (%30 work)
(descriptive, diagnostic)
Data ETL
(extract, transform, load)
Various metrics (raw data from different sources )
INFORMATION DEMAND
INFORMATION SUPPLY
New Edge to Decision Support
OLDReliance on survey data
Focus on outcomes of consumerdecisions
OLDMeasuringbusinesseffects
Usedescriptive
models
OLDFocus on short-run
profitability
NEWInsights frommarketplace
data
Examine theprocess
consumersuse to make
decisions
NEWOptimize activities
Use modelsbased on behavioralprocess
NEW
Emphasizedrivers of long term
value
Critical Problems
solved with modeling• Calibration of proper response (corporate…) in / before turbulence
• When• How
• Investment boosting• When• How
BUSINESS ANALOGY
ECONOMY IS CYCLICAL
A well known example about cause-effect :
fashion business cycle determined by stock market
Behavior
cycles are
socio
economic
driven
Business Model Canvas
VALUE PROPOSITION
THE APPROACHBusiness is cyclical
Need of decision models to predict cycles
GOAL:
Try to create unique solutions:
“always” in profit cycle
HOW:
Non Linear Predictive Modeling
VALUE PROPOSITION
Right Time DECISION SUPPORT •Know your risk/reward before acting (investment, improvement…)
•Right time, real time->Not on your time but market time
•Investment automation->helps you make decision at the right time with the right budget
Full Service Value PropositionPain relievers
(moderate benefitswill replace lowmargins –below
avg.)
Gain boosters
(high benefitswill replacemoderate
margins - avg.)
Smarter
Strategic
decisions
MAJOR BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
SPORTS INDUSTRY:•Solution provider for every partners in industry•Freelance Consultant•Data science methodologies supportting sports science
•Some links:
•www.sportsmedicineturkey.com/en/Hakkimizda/Danismanlarimiz
•http://www.futbolekonomi.com/index.php/in-english/crisis-in-football/3984-nedensellik-analizi-ned-ensellik-analizi-afutbol.html
•www.slideshare.net/vizyoner/black-box-analytics•www.slideshare.net/vizyoner/value-proposition-for-sports-industry
FRANCHISING INDUSTRY:
•Finding futur consuming locations•Freelance Consultant•Up sell with gamification methodologies
•Some links:•www.bayimolurmusun.com.tr/haber/1995
•www.slideshare.net/vizyoner/black-box-analyticsfranch
FINANCE INDUSTRY:
•Algorithmic trading methodologies applied for different markets•Freelance Consultant•Trade coaching
•Some links:
•www.paraborsa.net/kategori/yazarlar/cem-sengezer/
CRISIS MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES
Each problem that I solved became a rule, which served afterwards to
solve other problems (René Descartes)
Cem Şengezer
www.cemsengezer.com
