General Assembly, Product Management Final Project - Pebble App Store and Wearable Devices (December...

Shawn DimanthaGeneral Assembly, Product Management, Final Project

12/4/2013

Wearable Device Internet

App Store

We have to make a tough decision today

Maintain or Kill

Assess

Launch

Evaluate

Develop

Plan

Identify

But before we make the decision, let’s see how we got here…

Where we hypothesize we are now in the product lifecycle

Development

Introduction

Growth

Maturity

Decline

Maintain or Kill

Assess

Launch

Evaluate

Develop

Plan

Identify

We started off with a brainstorming session with our working team, and identified a focus

Apps Wearable Devices

Smartwatches

Smart clothing

Medical sensors

Pet Pebbles

Maintain or Kill

Assess

Launch

Evaluate

Develop

Plan

Identify

We identified a target market, market size, market value, and competition

Category Description

Target MarketTechnologically savvy and fitness conscious young adults, 20-34 years old, earning >$60,000/year in the United States

Market Size 24 million people

Market Value / Penetration

$5.3 Billion ($150 watch, $50 wearable device kickbacks, $20 in app purchases)

Target Penetration of 50% of this market, $2.6 Billion, CAGR of 20% (so $7.8 Billion by 2020)

$62.2 Billion for overall smartwatch market (Generator Research) by 2018

CompetitionSony SmartWatch, Samsung Galaxy Gear, Qualcomm Toq, Cookoo Watch, I’m Watch, Basis, Nike Sportswatch, Adidas runner’s watch, Google (tbd), Apple (tbd)

DemographicsUS based , Smartphone owner, Email / text user, 20-34 years old, Male skewed, though females will definitely use the product, Above average income ($60K+), Likely to be urban dwelling, Tech savvy, Fitness/health conscious

Let’s take a step back and look at my Inference Ladder

App Store (consumers)

Hypotheses: Customers = Gen X

Problem = no place for apps

Largest RiskConsumers (current owners) do

not want apps for the Pebble Watch

ExperimentFacebook post linked to existing

mypebbelefaces.com

Success Criteria6,000 people out of 62K click

Results: 15,000 clicks

App Store (developers)

Hypotheses: Customers = 20-39 devs

Problem = no $, no app market

Largest RiskDevelopers or potential developers

will not want to develop for the Pebble platform

ExperimentTwitter / Stack Overflwo post linked to existing developer

API/SDK documentation

Success Criteria1,000 people out of 30 K followers

clickResults: 10,000 clicks

Wearable Devices Internet

Hypotheses: Customers = Fit Gen X

Problem = many dev., no insights

Largest RiskCurrent and future Pebble

customers do not own other wearable devices

ExperimentFacebook poll with existing

wearable devices

Success Criteria1,000 people out of 62K answer

pollResults: 8,000 people answer poll

Just to make sure we tested out some MVPs…

Ready for development, we pitched our key stakeholders next…

Who are our key stakeholders?

Keep Satisfied (Low Interest, High Power) CEO / founders Board of directors Government International trade associations CFO CTO Wearable device manufacturers

Manage Closely (High Interest, High Power) VC investors COO Operations Legal team

Monitor (Low Interest, Low Power) Finance team Accounting Retail store partners

Keep Informed (High Interest, Low Power) Supply chain distributors Customer support App developers Marketing people Business development / sales Creative director

Working team Product manager Project manager Developers UX designers QA engineers

Who was in the room for our pitch?Kickoff

Develop-ment

Building

Launch

Prep

Approvals

Launch• CEO /

founders• Board of

directors• CFO• Finance team• Accounting• CTO• COO• Operations• App

developers• Legal team• Customer

support• Marketing

people• Business

development• Creative

director• QA engineers• UX designers

• QA engineers• UX designers• App developers• Wearable

device manufacturers

• Supply chain distributors

• Wearable device manufacturers

• Pebble Watch manufacturers


• Retail store partners

• App developers• QA engineers• UX designers





• Marketing people

• Business development / sales

• App developers• Wearable


• Customer support

• Legal team• Operations

• CEO / founders• CFO• Finance team• Accounting• CTO• COO• Wearable


• VC investors• Legal team





• Marketing people

• Business development / sales

• Government• International

trade associations

• App developers• Customer

support• Legal team• Operations

Executive Summary

Then (1980’s) Now (2012-2013) Future (2014-2015)

Introduction: The Pebble team created today’s smart watch industry and is looking to launch a universal platform of an app store and a wearable devices system to launch Pebble into mainstream use.

Background / Scenario:

Roadmap / Timeline

Q1 2014: Launch app store, 1,000 devs

Q3 2014: Achieve 60% of fitness tracking

market

Q1 2015: Medical partnerships achieved

for WDI

Objectives / Key Results

Q1 2014

Objective 1 Key Results

Move Pebble from a primarily hardware-focused company to a primarily software-focused

Initial app store created by using existing mypebblefaces.com and adding five new categories of products (games, fitness, lifestyle, schedule, news)

100 app developers signed up and have created apps for fitness, games, lifestyle functions

Developer-ready SDK added to app store with documentation, existing Pebble API tool links added to app store homepage


Transform Pebble into main wearable tech interface for 15% of wearable tech users

Data standard for Pebble created compatible with Nike FuelBand and FitBit data, all activity tracked in this new data standard

Tab built into current mobile app to allow for WDI sign ups (email, name, devices owned) and display data in bar chart format from current Pebble device

100% of Pebble watch data connected to and compatible WDI system API

80%

75%

Why? Software is a long game, builds distribution channels

Why? Need to start gaining market shareas an interface


Q2 2014


Grow Pebble into smartwatch app hub

5,000 developers signed up for Pebble App Store, and 100,000 users signed up for using apps with referral links

Enable all Bluetooth LTE and motion sensor functionalities on Pebble store front

Approve and publish 5,000 developer created Pebble apps in quarter


Become the main fitness tech platform for non-running activities

Compatibility with WDI for swimming, cycling, and biking tracked activity built within Pebble watch and on other fitness devices that do such tracking including smartwatches and simple activity trackers

Sleep tracking device compatibility added with Jawbone UP as a pilot for future data integration

55%

40%

Why? Smartwatch will be a $62 billionindustry, need to become main software

Why? Fitness is the first step to wearabletech dominance


Q3 2014


Achieve accessible reach to at least 60% of fitness tracking market

Product integrations with Misfit Wearables, Jawbone UP, BodyMedia devices established

RunKeeper and MapMyFitness app APIs incorporated into Pebble WDI

Apple iPhone 5 m7 processor incorporated into Pebble hardware sensing technology


Become go-to market platform for activity tracking across task-based activities and fitness

Nike Fuel made into standard base tracker of all activity enabled by partnership with Nike, Fuel converted into Pebbles, which become new standard of tracking for Pebble WDI users

FitBit integration added to full line of FitBit products including API linkup with Pebble WDI

10,000 beta testers signed up through Nike+ platform

Why? Fitness tech moves fast, but if we canget majority, we will win

Why? Need to start hacking away at highergrowth wearable tech markets


Q4 2014


Achieve market leadership in accessible apps created across all smart devices (inclusive of smartwatches)

Android marketplace integration with Pebble App store established to increase worldwide reach (Android has 80% of global smart device market)

iOS App store market integration established with apps fully compatible with Pebble and iOS hardware


Become market leader in wearable device related apps created, used, and revenue generated

WDI app added as standalone interface accessible from multiple platforms and devices, priority on smartphones and tablets

Developer monetization program integrated into wearable tech devices to track revenue achieved through Pebble WDI

In app and homepage advertising content added to Pebble properties to increase monetization opportunities

Why? Smartwatch will be a $62 billionindustry, need to become main software

Why? Need to own all categories to keepfootprint in market look at iOS app store

Business JustificationsBenefits: • App Store: Increased functionality• App Store: More revenue streams• WDI: Network reach, platform strategy locks in customers

Assumptions (highest sensitivity assumptions in red):• Sufficient number of app users / downloaders• Sufficient number of developers• Wearable tech market will grow to $60 billion by 2018• Wearable tech makers will want to plug into system

Alternatives considered (green options were most feasible considered options):

Building a Pebble watch with LCD

Acquire an app store from existing

entity like FitBit

Grow existing business focused on UX improvements

Acquire existing HumanAPI / Open mHealth platform

Partner with Cisco to gain access to

distribution chann.

2014 Cost, Sales Forecast (Benefits)

Total Categories

$1.2 M

$400K = 4 full stack engineers x 100K

$100K = 1 UX designer

$300K = AWS server burn

$200K = Online advertising

$200K = Sales reps / biz dev

2014 Costs:

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14Jul-1

4

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Worst ($2 M) Most Likely ($60 M) Best ($110 M)

2014 Revenues:

Best Case Assumptions$60M in App store revenue (30% * 100,000 paid apps * $2 average cost * 1000 average downloads)$30M in partner revenue$20M in if we take 1% of $2B of the healthcare market costs

Worst Case Assumptions$600K in App store revenue (30% * 1,000 paid apps * $2 average cost * 1000 average downloads)No partner revenue $2M if we take 0.1% of $2B of the healthcare market costs

Product Page, in BriefElevator PitchProvide users with a simple interface for their smartphone, on their wrist, without requiring the physical use of their smartphone. Core Objectives• Create and grow smartwatch category• Enable hands-free activities• Synchronize experience

Strategic InsightsSecret sauce: Disrupt smartphones, we provide interface to smartphones, with readable/non-glare e-ink screen; we’re locking in partners to bar others from entry

CompetitorsSony SmartWatch, Samsung Galaxy Gear, Qualcomm Toq, Cookoo Watch, I’m Watch, Basis, Nike Sportswatch, Adidas runner’s watch, Google (tbd), Apple (tbd)

Challenges/RisksSupply Chain Competition Adapting to new tech CommoditizationForeign IP Market stagnation

Device 1 summary pop-up


Storyboard for Wearable Devices Internet (WDI): Site Map

Home (Avatar screen)


Goals edit

Goals details

Storyboard WDI – Part 1

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Title

2 Avatar

3 Connected devices (highlighted)

4 Pop-up when click on device

5 Total activity listed with units for the day

6 % Progress of activity for the day

7

7 Close window button (x)

Description:The home screen displays all devices connected on user’s body. The pop-up displays daily progress


1 Device abbrevaitions

2 Avatar

3 Total daily activity

4 Total daily activity progress

5 Name of device

6 Monthly goals, if daily goal hit, day highlighted

7 Social activity if user friends like activity

Description:When user closes pop-up, home screen displayed with device name abbreviations. If user clicks on goals in pop-up more detailed window with all goals for device listed.1

2 3

4

5

6

7

8 Daily streaks listed

8


1 Edit goals numbers

2 Ok to confirm, cancel to not change

3 Daily activity progress updates

4 Change goals by swiping up

5 Click ok to confirm

6 Confirmation message that goals changed

Description:User can edit goals if click on monthly goals. Numbers can be edited by spinning up (like slot machine). Progress bars update automatically.

1

2

3

4

56

User Persona for WDI

Ray WhiteA/R/G/S: 38 years old, White, Male, In a RelationshipLocation: San Francisco, CAEducation: College graduate from UC BerkleyJob: Business Development Lead, Path

Ray’s StoryEveryday Ray wakes up to his Clocky’s incessant rolling and beeping around his bedroom floor at 6 am. His girlfriend Sandy is still asleep because she is not a fitness addict like Ray. Ray scarfs down a bowl of cereal while reading the latest headlines from the Times. He immediately puts on his Brooks running shoes, already having suited up in his gym clothes. He is training for a half-marathon in Sausalito at the end of the month, so is slowly working up his pace, keeping track of his run with RunKeeper app on his iPhone. After finishing his 6 mile run in Golden Gate Park, he declines to share to Facebook.He gets back to his apartment in the Mission and takes a shower before throwing on a suit for work, today is a big day trying to land a partnership with Instagram to tie Path’s feed to Instagram. He bikes to Path’s SOMA office and steps into several meetings with junior folks trying to learn the trade of deal-making. After clocking in his ride on his Moves app, he starts to teach these rookies the tricks of the trade. Ray likes not having to enter anything into his phone as he tracks his workouts.Ray calls up an Uber cab and is whisked away to Instagram’s office. This is the 7th straight day of negotiations, Ray constantly checks his iPhone for updates on his internal deadlines. He gets an email from Sandy setting up plans for dinner at the new locally sourced restaurant down the street.

How we would change features based on Ray’s Persona:• Add automatic tracking as a default to WDI platform• Incorporate notifications into WDI platform and existing email

structure if user wants (email still stronger than app notifications)• Add race schedules of major events so users can sign up

User Stories Help Tech Team Develop with User in Mind

ID: 1Title: Build API bridge to Nike FuelBandDescription: As a Nike+ FuelBand enthusiast I want to be able to access my Nike+ data alongside my Pebble data so that I can keep track of all my activity levels.User Acceptance: Nike+ FuelBand push notifications allow data push to server. Data received on server and matches Nike Fuel Band data. On / off buttons under each device can be toggled without error. If button is off, device data cannot be accessed, if button is on device data is displayed to user. If both toggle buttons off, display pop-up message notifying user no devices are connected.

Notes/Wireframes

Sprint 1: Plug in other devices into platform

We prioritized WDI features using MoSCoW and Stack Rank for Q1 2014

Musts• (WDI) Username sign in box• (WDI) Password entry box• (WDI) Sign up button• (WDI) Wearable device data numbers

Coulds• (WDI) Wearable device icons• (WDI) Wearable device description

text• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart customizable

displaying data

Shoulds• (WDI) Devices tab image

Wants• (WDI) Cover flow style wearable device icons• (WDI) Cover flow wearable devices location

indicator (circles filled in or empty)• (WDI) Sign in progress screen• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart x-axis values• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart x-axis units• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart y-axis values• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart y-axis units• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart: Drop down for time

period of data• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart: Drop down for units of

data

Key:Red text indicates can be completed in 3 months per stacked rank list

The Tech Team Wanted to Understand Why…So We Built an Objective Tree

Make Pebble the leader in the smart / connected device market

Make Pebble the leader in the wearable tech market

Become go-to market platform

for activity tracking across

task-based activities and

fitness

*Nike +

FitBit

*Sleep +

swimming

Become market leader in wearable

device related apps created,

used, and revenue generated

*1,000+ wearable

developers

Make Pebble the leader in the applications marketplace

Grow Pebble into smartwatch

app hub

*100,000 apps

developed

Move Pebble from a primarily

hardware-focused company to a

primarily software-focused

*Create app store

App Store(Consumer-facing)

App Store(Developer-facing)

Wearable Devices Internet

Revenue

Grow

Retain

Engage

Acquire$0.02Goal: <$0.05Cost/click

$0.15Goal: <$0.20Cost/click

$0.10Goal: <$0.25Cost/click

Q2 2014 Key Metrics Dashboard

0.4Goal: >0.2Registrations/visit



?

8.7Goal: >5Apps downl./mo

2.5Goal: >1Apps created/3 mo

4,568Goal: >2,000Activities / week

5Goal: >0.5Apps shared/user

3.5Goal: >2Referrals / user

4,568Goal: >2,000Activities / week

0.2Goal: >0.3Paid apps:All apps

0.3Goal: >0.5Paid apps:Total apps

1.5Goal: >2Devices/user

-- -

We vote to maintain and grow – do you?

General Assembly, Product Management Final Project - Pebble App Store and Wearable Devices (December...

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