General and particular social vulnerability to natural ... · Geographical studies of vulnerability...

SCIENCE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAARHUS, DENMARK

3-4. OCTOBER 2013

General and particular social vulnerability to natural hazards in

PolandPiotr Werner

Paulina Pokojska, Patryk Korzeniecki, Bartłomiej IwańczakFaculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw,

Warsaw, PolandMichał Kowalewski

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute,Warsaw, Poland

Partial results of research project: 'Spatial Differentiation of Information Society Vulnerability to Defined Environmental Hazards in Poland' (granted by Polish National Science Centre)

Aims

• Research project:Spatial Differentiation of Information Society Vulnerability to Defined Environmental Hazards in Poland (2012-2015)

• Aims:• measurement and evaluation of social vulnerability to identified,

chosen environmental hazards in Poland, taking into account the level of ICT development,

• Intermediate and partial result will be (now) presented• Research framework involves several certain natural hazards

according to set defined by Government Center of Security in Poland.

• floods, landslides, hurricanes (strong winds), severe frost, heat waves, droughts, storms (hail), forest fires, flu.

Science for Environment, 3-4.Oct. 2013 Aarhus Denmark

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State of art and methodological considerations (1)

• Concept of a natural hazard can be clearly distinguished from a natural disaster (Lisowski, 1993).

• Natural hazard: situation of equilibrium of system before disaster event.


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State of art and methodological considerations (2)

According to specialists - multi-dimensionality of the vulnerability to natural hazards rises from

• exposure (environmental), • susceptibility (socio-economic) • coping capacity (organizational or system) conditions

(Eq.1., Villagrán 2006). ∗ . 1

• Usually approach to assessment of risk of extreme natural phenomena involves convolution of natural hazards and vulnerability (Bankoff et al 2004).


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Geographical studies of vulnerability (1)

Geographical studies of vulnerability to defined natural hazards describe usually the specific conditions of natural phenomena and socio-economic characteristics of the defined regions, taking the form of hardly comparable for different hazards, complex geographical indices.

• Vulnerability to a given hazard depends on, inter alia (Nelson 2013):

• Proximity to a possible hazardous event; Population density in the area proximal to the event; Scientific understanding of the hazard; Public education and awareness of the hazard; Existence or non-existence of early-warning systems and lines of communication; Availability and readiness of emergency infrastructure; Construction styles and building codes;Cultural factors that influence public response to warnings”


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Geographical studies of vulnerability (cont)

• Gall (2007) included the following dimensions to be involved into social vulnerability indices:

• Populations at risk; Income; Gender; Race (ethnicity); Age (e.g. elderly, children); Unemployment; Dependence on social services; Residential property – renters; housing conditions; Infrastructure ;Occupation/working conditions; Family structure; Education; Culture (risk culture, experience); Place (incl. rural/urban dichotomy); Population growth; Special needs populations (e.g. marginalized, disabled); Commercial and industrial development; Built environment; Vulnerability Science; Governance (social capital);

• Other aspect stressed are sustainable livelihoods analysis which involve such dimensions as:

• Inequality; health; broader economic context (inflation, debt service, etc.); civil liberties; political rights; sustainable livelihoods analysis; environmental stewardship (ibid.)


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Quotes

• Donald Rumsfeld's (2002): • There are known knowns; there are things we know that

we know.• There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are

things that we now know we don't know.• But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things

we do not know we don't know.• might be applied to natural hazards and disasters and

supplemented with:• unknown knowns which means that people sometimes

knowingly ignore the hazard or disaster (Kundzewicz et al 2010)


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Linguistic operationalization• These statements seem a part of the multi-

valued logic of propositional calculus. • We can distinguish:

• lack of … (unknowns), tacit and explicit (formal) knowledge of natural hazards,

and, on the other side: • lack of … (unknowns), conscious (intuition) and

known(s) (recognized) - awareness of hazard phenomena (risks)

• awareness is based on past experiences of peopleexposed to hazards.


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Linguistic variables


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All above linguistic variables represent different situations which take place in different places and are related to product of two phenomena: • exposure to intensity (or frequency) of certain natural hazards • maturity of society i.e. level of preparedness (or susceptibility) to

certain hazards.

Table 1. Linguistic variables of the product of knowledge and exposure to natural hazards

Multi-valued logic(reminder)

• Jan Łukasiewicz (1920), Alfred Tarski - Polishlogicians, mathematicians and philosophers.

• Stephen C. Kleene• Lofti A. Zadeh – fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic

(1975)• Procedures (Lee 2005) : fuzzification, knowledge

base and decision-making logic, defuzzification• measures of fuzziness (to define membership

function) that can be applied: entropy, metric distance, Hamming, Euclidean or Minkowskidistance.


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Formal representation (partial,1)


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Fig.1. Example of theoretical numerical product of fuzzy possibilities of certain hazard as a product of physical and social vulnerabilities (without coping capacity)

∗

Formal representation (partial,2)


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Fig. 2. Example of theoretical exponential result of fuzzy possibilities of certain hazard as a product of physical and social vulnerabilities (without coping capacity)

Intermediate results: study concerning EHE (Extreme Heat Events) and EHVI (Extreme Heat Vulnerability Index) in Poland


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Raw data

Fuzzification (crisp probabilities)

Knowledge base and decision-making logic

Defuzzifaction (EHVI) EHVI

Physical EHEExposure

EHE Frequency

EHE Number

Studylength

EHEIntensity

EHE Length Temperatures

SOVI

People

Children Elderlypeople

Populationdensity

Urbanization

Regions

Builtareas

Deforestedareas

Roadsdensity

Elements and spatial differentiationExtreme Heat Vulnerability Index


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Intermediate results: study concerning exposure and susceptibility to frosts and final Extreme Frost Vulnerability Index (EFVI) in Poland


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Raw dataRaw dataFuzzification

(crispprobabilities)

Fuzzification(crisp

probabilities)

Knowledgebase and decision-

making logic

Knowledgebase and decision-

making logicDefuzzificationDefuzzification

EFVIEFVI

EFEVIExposureEFEVIExposure

Exposure to frosts and hoarfrosts

Exposure to frosts and hoarfrosts

TemperaturesTemperatures

DurationDuration

TimeTime

VariationVariation

SOVISOVI

PeoplePeople

ChildrenChildren

Elderly peopleElderly people

UrbanizationUrbanization

Populationdensity

Populationdensity

RegionsRegions

Bulit areaBulit area

Deforestedarea

Deforestedarea

RoadsdensityRoadsdensity

Elements and spatial differentiationExtreme Frost Vulnerability Index


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Intermediate results: study concerning exposure and susceptibility to snow and final Snow Events Vulnerability Index (SEVI)


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Raw

dat

aR

aw d

ata

Fuzz

ifica

tion

(cris

ppr

obab

ilitie

s)Fu

zzifi

catio

n(c

risp

prob

abilit

ies)

Kno

wle

dge

base

and

de

cisi

on-m

akin

g lo

gic

Kno

wle

dge

base

and

de

cisi

on-m

akin

g lo

gic

Def

uzzi

ficat

ion

Def

uzzi

ficat

ion

SEVISEVI

SEVIExposureSEVI

Exposure

Exposure to snowcover

Exposure to snowcover

ThicknessThickness

DurationDuration

Growth rateGrowth rate

Melting rateMelting rate

SOVISOVI

PeoplePeople

ChildrenChildren

Elderly peopleElderly people

UrbanizationUrbanization

Populationdensity

Populationdensity

RegionsRegions

Bulit areaBulit area

Deforestedarea

Deforestedarea

RoadsdensityRoadsdensity

Elements and spatial differentiationSnow Events Vulnerability Index


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Intermediate results: study concerning exposure and susceptibility to wind and final Strong Winds Events

Vulnerability Index - SWEVI


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Raw

dat

a

Fuzz

ifica

tion

(cris

ppr

obab

ilitie

s)

Kno

wle

dge

base

and

de

cisi

on-m

akin

g lo

gic

Def

uzzi

ficat

ion

SWEVI

SWEVIExposure

VulnerabilityIndex

Exposure to winds

Velocity

Probability

Relief

Squalls

Whirlwinds

SOVI

People

Children

Elderly people

Urbanization

Populationdensity

Regions

Bulit area

Deforestedarea

Roadsdensity

Elements and spatial differentiationStrong Winds Events Vulnerability Index


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Intermediate results: study concerning exposure and susceptibility to hailstorms and final Hail Events Vulnerability Index in Poland

(HEVI)


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Raw

dat

a

Fuzz

ifica

tion

(cris

ppr

obab

ilitie

s)

Kno

wle

dge

base

an

d de

cisi

on-

mak

ing

logi

c

Def

uzzi

ficat

ion

HEVI

HEVIExposure

Exposure to hailstorms

Hail Events

PotentialHailstormsWeather

Conditions

SOVI Regions

Orchards area

Density of cars

Elements and spatial differentiationHailstorm Events Vulnerability Index


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Intermediate results: study concerning exposure and susceptibility to forest fires and final Forest Fires Vulnerability Index (FFVI)


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Raw

dat

a

Fuzz

ifica

tion

(cris

ppr

obab

ilitie

s)

Kno

wle

dge

base

an

d de

cisi

on-

mak

ing

logi

c

Def

uzzi

ficat

ion

FFVI

FFEVIExposure

Exposure to forest fires

Frequency

Foresttypes

AirHumidity

Dry ForestFloor Cond.

SOVI

People PopulationDensity

Regions Roadsdensity

Elements and spatial differentiationForest Fires Vulnerability Index


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Final remarks and to do listThe particular case studies and individual indices to certain hazards and their

social vulnerability counterparts indices have been presented as are, i.e. we are in the middle of the project and these intermediate results can be revisedafter the deep discussion. • Looking for appropriate formal representation of fuzzy possibilities (e.g.

xy, power(x,y), xy*power(xy)• Deep discussion concerning the selection of appropriate elements for

certain particular social vulnerability indices (SoVI) to defined hazards• Separation of common elements of (SoVI) and discussion concerning

the ability of construction of overall Social Vulnerability Index to natural hazards

• Discussion concerning the ability of construction of overall Physical Index of Exposure to natural hazards – may be divided into two ones –for warm and cold seasons.

• Comparison with measures concerning digital division of information society in Poland (which is out of the topic presented now).


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Thank You for attentionBankoff, Greg, Georg Frerks, i Dorothea Hilhorst. 2004. Mapping Vulnerability Disasters,

Development, and People. London; Sterling, VA: Earthscan Publications. http://search.ebscohost.com.

Gall, Melanie. 2007. Indices of social vulnerability to natural hazards: a comparativeevaluation. ProQuest.

Kundzewicz, Z.W., P. Matczak, i Z Sadowski. 2010. „Wprowadzenie do raportu o zagrożeniach” 4. Nauka. http://www.portalwiedzy.pan.pl

Lee, Kwang H. 2005. First course on fuzzy theory and applications. Advances in softcomputing. Berlin ; New York: Springer-Verlag.

Nelson, S.A. 2013. „Natural Disasters & Assessing Hazards and Risk”. Aug. 18. http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/introduction.htm.

Villagrán de León, Juan Carlos, i United Nations University. Institute for Environment and Human Security. 2006. Vulnerability : a Conceptual and Methodological Review. Bonn, Germany: United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security.

Zadeh, L.A. 1975. „The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximatereasoning—I”. Information Sciences 8 (3): 199–249. doi:10.1016/0020-0255(75)90036-5


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