[GE Innovation Forum 2015] Repowering by Seunghyun, Ju
Transcript of [GE Innovation Forum 2015] Repowering by Seunghyun, Ju
GE Proprietary Information—Class III (Confidential) Export Controlled—U.S. Government approval is required prior to export from the U.S., re-export from a third country, or release to a foreign national wherever located © 2015 General Electric Company - All rights reserved.
GE Power & Water Break-Through in Uncertain World Imagination At Work
GE Beliefs
Customers Determine Our Success
Stay Lean to Go Fast
Learn and Adopt to Win
Empower and Inspire Each Other
Deliver Results in an Uncertain World
GE Proprietary Information—Class III (Confidential) Export Controlled—U.S. Government approval is required prior to export from the
U.S., re-export from a third country, or release to a foreign national wherever located
© 2015 General Electric Company - All rights reserved.
Customer Business Environment Economy
System Marginal Price
Power Development Plan Japanese Crude Cocktail
JCC & SMP
2007 2015
GE Proprietary Information—Class III (Confidential) Export Controlled—U.S. Government approval is required prior to export from the
U.S., re-export from a third country, or release to a foreign national wherever located
© 2015 General Electric Company - All rights reserved.
Customers’ Problems
Load Factor Projection – F GTCCs
GTCC A
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GTCC B
Reserve Margin
Scrap & Rebuild = Permission
No Action = Sunk Cost / Fixed Cost
Alternative Fuel = Take Or Pay / GSA (Optional)
DH Conversion = No Heat Demand / High Uncertainty
GE Proprietary Information—Class III (Confidential) Export Controlled—U.S. Government approval is required prior to export from the
U.S., re-export from a third country, or release to a foreign national wherever located
© 2015 General Electric Company - All rights reserved.
It is All About Efficiency Upgrade F GTs to HA GTs
GE 7HA.02 = 330MW
2 Units X F GTs = 300~350MW @ 56% eff. LHV
1 Unit X HA GTs = 330MW @ +61% eff. LHV
Visibility Insight Actions
Fuel (Variable) Cost = 9.1% ↓ CO2 Emission Reduction = 163,000 Ton/year (1 GW @ 70% load factor)
GE Proprietary Information—Class III (Confidential) Export Controlled—U.S. Government approval is required prior to export from the
U.S., re-export from a third country, or release to a foreign national wherever located
© 2015 General Electric Company - All rights reserved.
What do to NEXT? Scenario Planning for target Efficiency HA Upgrade IRR sensitivity - Efficiency
Step 1. Load Factor Projection – 60% / 61% / 62%eff.
Step 2. SMP / Fuel Cost Projection for next 6 years
Step 3. Define Work Scope with Engineering
Step. 4. Feasibility Study Report with Economics
(eff. CC LHV)
IRR
O&M Know-How Export Potential
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0%
GE Proprietary Information—Class III (Confidential) Export Controlled—U.S. Government approval is required prior to export from the
U.S., re-export from a third country, or release to a foreign national wherever located
© 2015 General Electric Company - All rights reserved.
NO ACTION is not an ANSWER
Policy
Power Market
Fuel Market Power Demand
Degradation HA UPGRADE
GE Proprietary Information—Class III (Confidential) Export Controlled—U.S. Government approval is required prior to export from the
U.S., re-export from a third country, or release to a foreign national wherever located
© 2015 General Electric Company - All rights reserved.