GCTE Keynote Address LINKS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLICY MAKING by Jeffrey B. Tschirley and David Norse...
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Transcript of GCTE Keynote Address LINKS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLICY MAKING by Jeffrey B. Tschirley and David Norse...
GCTE Keynote Address
LINKS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLICY MAKING
by
Jeffrey B. Tschirley and David Norse
Food and Forestry:Global change and global challenges
Requirements for policy relevant science:
Definition of the chain (filiere) of linkages
Matrix analysis to target key policy areas and opportunities
Early and direct links (collaborative partnerships) with policy research, analysis and formulation specialists
ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVERS
ECOSYSTEM CHANGES
RESOURCE & PRODUCT AVAILABILITY
Land Use/Land Cover
ChangeClimate Change
EcosystemFunction
EcosystemStructure
Wood & Fibre Food Water AirGenes, Species,
Habitats
Resource Supply Constraints
Land Degradation& Desertification
Pollution & Competitionin Shared Waterbasins
Costal Zone Pollution
Trans Boundary Air Pollution
Loss of Biodiversity
AtmosphericComposition
Change
GTOS Conceptual framework
GLOBAL CHANGE & SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES
GTOS planning group expert 1996
Data and information pyramid
Global policy
formulation
National policy
planning
Research and modelling
Operational decision makers
Scientific researchers
INFORMATION
DATA
Data volume
decreases
Subjectivity increases
GT.Net - A global system of terrestrial observation network
COASTAL
* ECOLOGY
BIODIVERSITY
* GLACIERS
* PERMAFROST
* HYDROLOGY
* ESTABISHEDOR IN PROGRESS
*C.E
.EU
R
*S.E
.AF
RIC
A
S.A
SIA
N.A
ME
RIC
A
REGIONAL NETWORKS
TH
EM
AT
IC N
ET
WO
RK
Global demonstration projects•Net primary productivity •Terrestrial carbon initiative •Biodiversity richness study•Soil decomposition / biodiversity
1. Large-area experiments2. Long-term research centres3. Field stations4. Periodic, unstaffed sample sites5. Frequent low resolution remote sensing
The global observation hierarchy
•Where science fits in a policy context
•Components of policy analysis implementation
•Principles for policy relevant science
•Closer alignment with the policy formulation processes
Widening the arguments for research and policy links:
Science in a policy context
Addressing questions such as:
- In what timeframe and spatial scale will global changes occur? Short or long-term?
- Will it be global or regional in terms of physical and socio-economic impacts?
- What are the levels of uncertainty regarding the time scale or geographic impact?
Factors inhibiting the use of science in policy formulation:
•Those primarily responsible for causing global change may not suffer most from its impacts
•Misconceptions about the nature of natural resource management (NRM) problems.
•Tendency to accept public information about environmental risks at face value.
Components of policy analysis and implementation:
problem identification;strategy formulation;selection of policy options;policy implementation; setting of regulatory standards;monitoring and evaluation.
Problem identification:
problems that are global in scale
problems that are global in scope (and in the future may be global in scale)
Strategy formulationSummary of green-house gas emissions and characteristics.(1) ppmv and emission in Gt; (2) ppbv and emission in Mt; (3) ppbv and emission in Kt;(4) pptv; (5) weighted average of the CFCs, excluding the ones that have been phased out;(6) Global warming potential, i.e. the warming potential relative to CO2 over a 100 year period
Selection of Policy Options
More selection of policy options
Principles for Policy Relevant Science
Correct identification and definition of the issues
Specification of the form and timeframe in which the information is needed
Involvement of several Ministries or policy bodies
No single organization can command the data, information, expertise or finance for path-finding global research
Strategic geographical participation of scientists and institutions Full disciplinary and analytical integration;Transparency of data, method, and presentation; documentation of meta data;An open peer review process and clarification of issues on which there is not yet broad consensus;Sensitivity analysis of the scientific uncertainties and their spatial and temporal impacts;Clear synthesis and presentation of the scientific issues and response options.
More elements for success:
•break traditional molds
•build new collaborative, cross-disciplinary partnerships
Biodiversity Relationships with ScaleScale
Continent/Globe Species Richness, life form Climate ave., extremes
Gamma diversity,Community dominants
Terrain, soils,disturbance
Alpha diversity,beta diversity,richness, evenness
Biological factors (e.g., herbivory),nutrients
Sp
ecie
s (p
rese
nc
e/a
bse
nce
)
Landscape / Region
Community / Landscape
Biodiversity-Measure Cause
Species Abundance
“The various aspects of abundance (there are a plethora of terms and indices) are often correlated with one another, but they are not interchangeable, making it difficult to compare information gathered in different ways or to select appropriate conservation priorities. A method for translating abundance information between different measures is badly needed.”(Kunin 1998)
Scaling NPP, ecosystem metabolism and biodiversity relationships
From plots to:communities to:
landscapes to:lifeforms to:
regions/continents
Relating biodiversity measures to thesehierarchial levels and the different controlsthat occur at each scale.
Scale
Continent/Globe
Landscape / Region
Community / Landscape
Value relationships with scaleBiodiversity/NPP Values/Services
Climate moderation, CO2 reduction, trace gas reduction
Increased precipitation, reduced temp. extremes, water quality/quantity improvement, erosion control, flood reduction
Production of fiber, grains, meat, aesthetics, pollination, soilfertility, reduced soil loss, improvedquality of life, and many more!
HadCM2 Ensemble Experiment- 2050s
HadCM3GGa1 Experiment - 2050s
Framework for sustainability analysisPRESSURE STATE RESPONSE
Resource assessment Impact analysis Technical intervention
•Land use change•High input cropping•Livestock operations
•Watershed degradation, biodiversity loss•Depletion of micro organisms•Groundwater contamination, air pollution
•Re-vegetation, conservation biology•Mixed cropping, integrated plant nutrition•De-stocking, rotation systems
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS COMPONENTS
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRESSURES:•Incentives (e.g. payments, taxes)•Training•Technology development•Participatory mechanism•Regulatory action•Codes of conduct
•Valuation•Opportunity costs•Financial risk•Direct / In-direct costs
SOCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
•Income distribution•Land reform•Access to capital•Food quality•Management capacity
•Natural resource endowments•Agro-ecological resilience•Production system diversity•Population supporting capacity
TRADEOFFS:•Sensitivity analysis •Multicriteria analysis•Risk assessment
ECONOMIC
Progression of development for scientific fields
StageTypes of studies
Characteristics of the data
Mode of communication amongresearches
Logistics
Relevance to social Questions
YOUNG
MATURING
MATURE
Descriptive Few datasets,idiosyncratic format,individually designed
Personal and individual
Little communicationcommunication within single disciplines “Esoteric”
obscure
Technological tools,textbooks
Process-oriented Limited use ofdatabase technology
Electronic communication with personal contact required
Formal communicationsMore easily fundable, compelling
Courses
Graduate programs
CentralPredictive Linked, harmonized, emulative knowledge base with semantic connectivity to many datasets
Multiple communication modes, discussion about scientific questions
Jointly funded programs
Adapted from Nalini. In Press.
IND
IVID
UA
L A
ND
DIS
CIP
LIN
E P
RO
DU
CT
IVIT
Y