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© OECD/IEA 2010 A Global Outlook for CCS GCCSI Japan Members’ meeting Tokyo, 20 June 2013 Juho Lipponen Head of Unit, Carbon Capture and Storage International Energy Agency
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Global CCS Institute Meeting 20 June 2013. Presentation on Global Outlook of CCS by Juho Lipponen, Head of Carbon Capture & Storage Unit, International Energy Agency (IEA).
Transcript of Gccsi japan members'_meeting_200613_juho-lipponen_iea
© OECD/IEA 2010
A Global Outlook for CCS
GCCSI Japan Members’ meeting
Tokyo, 20 June 2013
Juho Lipponen Head of Unit, Carbon Capture and Storage
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2010
Twenty-eight IEA member countries
IEA members
Accession countries (Chile and Estonia have begun the process of joining the IEA)
Partner countries that attended the 2011 Ministerial Meeting
Dedicated CCS Unit since 2010, launched with financial support from Australia (RET / GCCSI)
© OECD/IEA 2010
Outline
1. Advancing CCS remains critically important
2. CCS is ready for scale-up
3. Where do we need to be by middle of the century?
4. How do we get there?
© OECD/IEA 2010
Atmospheric CO2 concentration at historic high
400ppm concentration was recorded in May 2013.
http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
© OECD/IEA 2010
Record-high CO2 emissions in 2012
Annual CO2 emissions reached record high 31,6 Gt in 2012
Significant differences in world regions in 2012.
WEO 2013
WEO 2013
© OECD/IEA 2010
Advancing CCS remains critically important (1)
2. Fossil fuels accounted for 85% of all incremental energy demand in the last decade
WEO 2011
1. Energy-related CO2 emissions have doubled in the past 40 years
© OECD/IEA 2010
Advancing CCS remains critically important (2)
3. CCS is the only option for many energy-intensive industries
4. CCS is part of a cost-effective portfolio of technologies in any ambitious scenario
© OECD/IEA 2010
Advancing CCS remains critically important (3)
5. CCS can help preserve an economic value of fossil fuel reserves
6. CCS can help “unlock” emissions already locked in
WEO 2013
WEO 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010
Advancing CCS remains critically important (3)
7. CCS can help reduce investment cost in the power sector
8. Global energy supply is today as carbon-intensive as it was in 1990
WEO 2013
IEA Energy Sector Carbon Intensity Index, ESCII
© OECD/IEA 2010
CCS NEEDS TO BE A SOLUTION AS OF
EARLY 2020s.
© OECD/IEA 2010
Outline
1. Advancing CCS remains critically important
2. CCS is ready for scale-up
3. Where do we need to be by middle of the century?
4. How do we get there?
© OECD/IEA 2010
CCS is making progress
Source: GCCSI, BNEF Projects in “operate”, “execute” and “define” phases according to GCCSI criteria.
© OECD/IEA 2010
CCS is making progress
Source: GCCSI, BNEF Projects in “operate”, “execute” and “define” phases according to GCCSI criteria.
© OECD/IEA 2010
Inputs into CCS are not negligible...
Source: BNEF
Source: IEA Source: IEA
Source: GCCSI
Money spent on CCS projects globally Government pledges for CCS support
R&D spending on CCS technologies by IEA countries Numbers of CCS-related patents
© OECD/IEA 2010
The need for project experience in industry-CCS (1)
Source: Industry-CCS annex to IEA TCEP report 2013.
© OECD/IEA 2010
1. Commit public funding to ~10 pilot and demo-scale projects in cement, steel etc.
2. Support projects according to their contribution to knowledge (not immediate CO2 emission reductions)
3. Incorporate CCS in forward-looking industrial strategies
4. Address competitiveness concerns of sectors in global competition
5. Better exploit synergies between sectors
6. Involve all industry sectors in actions to advance CCS
The need for project experience in industry-CCS (2)
© OECD/IEA 2010
CCS: still waiting its cue from governments
260
45-65 MtCO2 stored in 2020 in a 2°C stabilisation scenario
MtCO2 maximum projected capture rate in 2020
© OECD/IEA 2010
Outline
1. Advancing CCS remains critically important
2. CCS is ready for scale-up
3. Where do we need to be by middle of the century?
4. How do we get there?
© OECD/IEA 2010
By 2050: 120Gt of CO2 safely stored
2050: > 7000Mt CO2 stored pa; CCS routinely used in all applicable power and industry
2030: > 2000Mt CO2 stored pa; CCS routinely used in power and industry; ready for deployment in 2nd phase industry
2020: Several dozen large-scale projects in coal and gas power and 1st phase industry
© OECD/IEA 2010
By 2050, 15% of net power generation could come from CCS-equipped plants
© OECD/IEA 2010
Mix of CCS-equipped generation varies around the world
© OECD/IEA 2011
© OECD/IEA 2010
Industrial applications vary widely by region
© OECD/IEA 2010
Where is CO2 storage needed?
Note: Mass captured in GtCO2
© OECD/IEA 2010
Total investment in CCS: 3.6 trillion USD
0 10 20 30 40
Trillion USD
CCS
Other low-carbon technology
2013-2020: USD 100 bn
2020-2050: USD 3,5 trn
Economic benefit: if CCS removed from portfolio, investment cost in the power sector increases by 40% until 2050
Note: investment needs in other low-carbon energies are equally significant
Additional investment requirements to reach 2DS scenario goals
© OECD/IEA 2010
Top-10 regions/sectors: 55% of total effort
Source: IEA
© OECD/IEA 2010
Outline
1. Advancing CCS remains critically important
2. CCS is ready for scale-up
3. Where do we need to be by middle of the century?
4. How do we get there?
© OECD/IEA 2010
A pathway for wide deployment
Next seven years:
Creating conditions for
wide deployment
2020-2030:
Large-scale deployment picks
up speed
2030 and beyond:
CCS is mainstream
© OECD/IEA 2010
A comprehensive policy commitment to CCS
Permitting framework
Technology RD&D framework
Incentive framework
Long-term vision for CCS deployment
Regulation for safe, effective storage
Efficient resource
management
Prices of limits on
emissions
Targeted deployment incentives
Demonstration funding
All parts of the policy puzzle must be in place if CCS is to excel, starting with a clear vision for the future for CCS
© OECD/IEA 2011
Where do we need to concentrate efforts?
Introduce financial support mechanisms.
Implement policies that encourage storage exploration, characterisation and development.
Develop national law and regulation that require new base-load fossil-fuel power generation capacity to be CCS-ready.
Prove capture systems at pilot scale in industrial applications.
Implement governance frameworks that ensure safe and effective storage.
Reduce the cost of electricity from power plants equipped with capture through continued technology development.
Encourage efficient development of CO2 transport infrastructure anticipating future locations.
© OECD/IEA 2011
Top-ranked action for next seven years:
Creating the business case This decade is not about CO2 reductions, but about technology
learning
The main policy mechanisms should provide mid-term revenue certainty
1. Direct financial support by governments for CAPEX: grants, loans, equity etc.
2. Direct support for operations: feed-in tariffs, production tax credits, certificates, portfolio standards etc.
3. Leveraging existing markets for CO2 (such as EOR)
4. Specific policy to incentivise sectors in global competition (cement, steel etc.)
Need to inspire from successful policies for renewables
© OECD/IEA 2011
IEA – GCCSI collaboration
Strategic level Strategic partnership IEA-GCCSI (Australian financial contribution to IEA)
Communication between top management
Strategic vision for CCS and recommendations on needed actions
Sharing information Monthly phone calls
and exchanges of info
Events Joint events
Invitations to speak
Joint planning & information exchange prior to events
Publications & analysis Common papers &
documents
Direct contributions to each other’s work
Commenting of drafts
Use and references to each other’s data and analysis
© OECD/IEA 2010
NEW IEA CCS ROADMAP
LAUNCH:
Tuesday 2 July
© OECD/IEA 2010
Thank you!
+33 1 40 57 66 80
www.iea.org/ccs
