Rapid Health Transitions:

Dec. 13, 2012

Lessons from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010

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GBD 2010 Team

486 authors from 302 institutions in 50 countries

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Amassing the best evidence on the state of the world’s health

• 291 diseases and injuries

• 1,160 disabling sequelae of these diseases and injuries

• 67 risk factors

• 20 age groups, two sexes

• 187 countries

• 1990-2010

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Enhanced scientific rigor for global descriptive epidemiology

• Statistical methods designed for the challenges of global health data developed and applied.

• All figures have 95% uncertainty intervals.

• Multiple efforts at validation, e.g., deaths by cause must add up to 100%; anemia by cause must add up to total anemia.

• Data visualization environments used as quality control tools.

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Five high-level observations and 650 million results

• GBD 2010 has 650 million different findings.

• Bird’s-eye view provides five main messages, but detailed findings are important for many diseases, injuries, risks and for different regions and countries.

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1) Outside of sub-Saharan Africa rapid demographic change

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2) Progressive disease transition from communicable to non-communicable causes

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1990 2010

3) The disability transition: progressive shift in burden from premature mortality to years lived with disability

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What ails you is not necessarily what kills you: global YLDs by cause and age, 2010

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4) The global risk factor transition

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5) The majority of burden in sub-Saharan Africa is still from MDGs 4, 5 and 6

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Leading causes of global DALYs shifting

Infectious, neonatal, maternal

Non-communicable

Injuries

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Interactive tools to explore GBD 2010