GB POTATOES: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2 011- 12 · 2019-09-24 · GB consumption Total including imports...

GB POTATOES: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2011-12

2011-12Inform

ation

Update

November 2011

How do we know ouroutputs are fit for industry?

Market Intelligence data and deliveries areregularly peer-reviewed via the Potato CouncilMarket Information Committee. The committeeis made up of potato growers, packers, processors,industry bodies, government and seed suppliersto ensure the information provided continues tomeet current industry needs. The committeealso recommends new areas of focus as thepotato industry develops. You can see a

list of the current members inAppendix 1 (page 20).

The GB Potato Industry

Consolidation of the GB Industry

The European Market

Modelling Work

World Production

Potato Council Market Information Committee

Potato Council Data Collection

Potato Council Market Intelligence Information Services

Levy-Payer Data Centre

Data Sources

NEPG Representative Organisations

Glossary

Contacts

1

11

15

16

19

20

21

22

24

25

26

27

28

Contents

Publication Overview

Welcome to GB Potatoes: MarketIntelligence 2011-12. The aim of thisannual potato bible is to provide theindustry with the latest annual trends,including world potato production, thestructure of the GB market includingareas, production, prices, supplies anddisposals, consumption, retail andfoodservice data to enable you tomake informed business decisions.

The publication provides final figuresfor the 2010/11 crop year and latestprovisional figures for the 2011/12season (as of October 2011). This reportalso highlights where you can find thelatest information throughout theseason.

The Agriculture and HorticultureDevelopment Board (AHDB) Market

Intelligence Division

The role of the AHDB Market Intelligence divisionis to communicate accurate, timely, independentand impartial information on markets and prices.The aim is to ensure that our levy-payers andstakeholders are properly informed of changesin markets which will equip them to make

the best business decisions.

As an integral part of theMarket Intelligence division, the

Potato market specialist team providesinformation to help growers and

purchasers understand the businessenvironment for potatoes.The informationis provided to support sustained demandfor potatoes grown by AHDB levy-payers.The potato industry is influenced by other

on-farm enterprises and therefore theteam works closely with allAHDB market specialists.

1


GB Potatoes Market Intelligence 2011-12

The GB potato industry delivers sales value of £947m at farm gate and £3.8bn atconsumer level. Potato production is a capital intensive and high risk operationwith just under 2,500 highly specialised growers, incorporating potatoes as partof their farming operation, making up today’s GB potato industry.

The majority of these professional producers arepart of dedicated supply chains, working in closecollaboration with specialist buyers. The strongpartnerships with purchasers result in nearly threequarters of GB crop grown on a pre-season contract orfor a committed buyer.

GB production is relatively stable with approximately55% entering the fresh supply chain and the remaindersupplied to the processing industry. A decade agothere were more than double the number ofproducers. As a result, the average area per grower, atjust under 50 hectares, has also doubled and twice thenumber of growers produce on an area of a 100 ha ormore. So, production today is from fewer hectares andfar fewer growers (see page 11).

The total plantings in 2010 were 126,900 ha, withmaincrop varieties accounting for almost two-thirds ofthis area. Maincrop yields have more than doubled,from just under 23t/ha in1960 to over 46t/ha in 2010,and this reflects the considerable amount of industryresearch, investment and innovation over the years.

The basic laws of supply and demand are applicableto the GB potato market, with prices dropping in highproduction years. Historically, over 6.5m tonnestriggering a low price year. However, the overall wareprice index in 2010 at £161.67/t was the highest in overa decade.

The start of the 2011/12 season (as of October 2011)Weather conditions in the spring and summer monthsare always crucial to crop development and this yearhas been no exception.

The start of the 2011/12 crop year, in contrast to lastseason, was dry and unusually warm. Therefore,planting tracked ahead of last year and the cropgot off to a good start (see page 12).

Throughout the lifting season ample supplies wereavailable with many varieties ready ahead of last year.An effect of this early boost was that at the start ofOctober, over 60% of the crop was estimated to beharvested, compared with just under 46% at the sametime last year.

The spring was one of the warmest across theUK since 1910, according to Met Office figures. It wasparticularly dry over the eastern half of England, whereless than a third of the normal amount of rain fell. Inthe England and Wales rainfall series from 1766, it wasthe third driest spring on record and the driest since1893. With the dry and warm conditions many cropsproduced good yields and in general a bolder cropthan last season.

However, the weather changed later in the year, withUK summer rainfall 18% above normal. EasternScotland and North-East England were particularly wetin both July and August, with over twice the normalrainfall recorded each month. Eastern Scotland had itssecond wettest summer since 1910. But in contrast,much of the Midlands was relatively dry throughout.

A period of unseasonably warm, settled weather inlate September and early October brought sunshineand temperatures of up to 29.9 °C to many parts of theUK. In England, lifting continued to make goodprogress, with some regions experiencing unseasonablydry weather and irrigating ahead of the harvester tominimise bruising.

The official 2011 production figure will be announcedin November once the harvest has been complete andactual yields have been assessed. Traditionally, thePotato Council publishes production estimates inNovember each year, which allows an indication of theseasonal average price.

European data is available on page 15.

2


SEED GROWER

WARE GROWER

WholesaleMarket

ProcessingFish &

Chip Shop

QSR

Pre-Packers

SeedMerchant

CONSUMER

WarePotato

Merchant

Non-Consumption& Animal Feed

Seed Breeders

Breeder Agents

Raw Import

Product Import

Raw Export

Product Export

Input Suppliers

Input Suppliers

Imports

Exports

R & D

Specialist Hauliers

Specialist Hauliers Raw

*Pubs, Restaurants, Leisure, Government, Quick Service Restaurants (QSR),Contract Catering/Public Sector (Schools, Hospitals, Workplace, etc)

Foodservice*

SUPP

LYCH

AIN

CUST

OM

ERS

Retailer IndependentGrocer

SeedMultiplication

Fresh SalesFarmers’ Markets

Farm GateFarm Shop

The diagram below illustrates the network and interactions of the producers, suppliers, service providers, buyersand consumers that make up the complex GB potato supply chain.

The GB potatoindustry deliverssales value of

£947m at farm gateand £3.8bn atconsumer level

Diagram of the Potato Supply Chain

GB Potatoes

3

Fresh exports270

Home-grown supply5,849

GB consumptionTotal including imports

5,244

Net human consumption from GB crop4,114

GB crop tofresh supply

chain2,285

Stocks to next year309

Seed supply chain361

Seed imports 25

Seed exports 106

2,1383,106

Total throughprocessed

supply chain3,290

GB cropfor

processing1,829

Stock feed &other losses

1,433

Stocks from last year368

Product imports1,338

Rawimports124

Product exports184

Fresh imports124

Potato Supply Flowchart (Raw Material)

Figures for June 2010 to May 2011 crop year, in thousands metric tonnes raw equivalent

Strong partnershipswith purchasers result in

3/4 of the GB crop grown onpre-season contract or for

a committed buyer

Market Intelligence 2011-12

4

Main Production Areas

Planting Data Sep 2011

• Eastern England andYorkshire have 53%of plantings

• Scotland has 23%,of which c. 40% is seed

• West Midlands has12% of plantings

• Remainder of Englandand Wales have 12%

• South West andPembrokeshire mainlyearly crop

• Plantings correspondto arable soils map

Source: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre

Ware Potatoes

Seed Potatoes

Grower Panel Crop(see page 25)

1,2615,660

13,73617,24616,41533,245

3,3946,117

27,1091,730

125,911

North EastNorth WestYorks & HumberEast MidlandsWest MidlandsEastern CountiesSouth EastSouth WestScotlandWalesTotal

1,3025,416

14,14717,76416,62133,441

3,2296,129

27,5151,683

127,249

1,2826,041

14,26918,26117,19833,418

3,2596,726

28,5881,715

130,758

1,3725,835

13,65217,78516,13934,347

3,0907,131

29,2131,669

130,234

1,2185,764

14,07117,94115,54234,329

3,2817,190

29,2731,622

130,231

1,2684,989

15,07718,74614,66834,986

2,7024,743

28,2331,476

126,887

2005GB Region 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1,1794,773

14,29818,53815,29633,171

2,9645,369

29,3551,384

126,328

2011

Plantings by Region 2005-2011

For the latestdata go to:

www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre

All values shown are estimated total plantings in hectares

GB Potatoes

5

Maris Piper remains the dominant variety,accounting for 16% of planted area. It is amultipurpose variety used mainly forchipping but also popular for packing andthe bag trade.

Estima remains the second-ranked variety,though it has shown a 51% decline inplanted area since 2006.

Markies used mainly for chipping is upone place this year to 3rd and has gainedstrongly in popularity since 2005, when itwas ranked 23rd.

Lady Rosetta, a specialist crisping variety,is down a place this year and is ranked 4th.

Maris Peer remains in 5th place, havingmaintained similar areas since 2005 as apre-pack variety mainly marketed as asalad or new potato.

For more information on varietiesgo to: http://varieties.potato.org.uk

123456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

20,7607,7407,1056,5585,4244,7874,5754,4173,6713,3893,0853,0572,9822,9512,0621,8461,7861,7801,7001,6481,4941,4011,3791,2061,0701,0461,0201,007

876866

102,69323,635

126,328

16%6%6%5%4%4%4%3%3%3%2%2%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%

81%19%

100%

Rank

Maris PiperEstimaMarkiesLady Rosetta (crisping)Maris PeerMelodyMarfonaHermes (crisping)HarmonySaturna (crisping)DesireeKing EdwardSaxonPentland Dell (processing)CabaretRoosterCharlotteFontaneRusset Burbank (processing)OspreyPremiereInnovator (processing)CultraWiljaShepody (processing)AgriaAccordMaris BardNadineVales SovereignSub-totalOther varietiesTotal

Top Varieties2011 GB

Planted Area(hectares)

%of Total

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NO

VD

EC JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

Availability

The 2011 data shown in the table is provisionaland will be updated in January 2012.

Top Varieties by Area in 2011 (hectares) and Typical Availability

First earlies

Second earlies

Maincrop red

Maincropparti coloured

Maincrop white

Melody is 6th, up three places from lastyear and is used mainly in the packingtrade but is also used in the bag sector.

Marfona, used in the packing and thebag sector is 7th, rising one place fromlast season.

Hermes, used mainly for crisping, isdown one place to 8th this year.

Harmony, mainly used in the packing sector,has moved down three places to 9th this year,although it was 19th back in 2005.

6,90314,77734,12532,821

3,3443,616

95,585

Fresh bagsFresh chippingPre-packProcessingOther WareSeedTotal

807413

13,1221,318

87512,82029,355

9993

9137647

1561,384

7,81015,28348,16034,215

4,26516,595

126,328

EnglandMarket Sector Scotland Wales Total 2011

Source: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centreThe 2011 data shown in the table is provisional and will be updated in January 2012.

Planted Area by Market Sector and Region 2011 in Hectares

The top ninevarieties representjust over half thetotal planted area

in 2011


6

RegisteredGrowers

Total Area*'000 ha

Year

1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

76,82574,93370,05666,38060,94057,72554,70050,31048,23945,13043,34642,75640,75638,75336,87235,47834,93835,28633,38732,14930,22528,76027,49826,49925,48024,94822,56521,43920,15519,26618,33117,23416,51216,30814,90014,02213,395

9,7727,5307,3316,1435,6064,8043,3813,1773,0732,9222,8382,7272,6122,465

RegisteredArea

'000 ha

MaincropNet Yield

tonnes/ha

280.2239.6253.0264.4270.0262.7237.1248.1246.2217.2238.6225.7208.5196.0189.4180.2194.9199.4183.9171.4174.0162.4161.3165.2167.4162.7150.1151.1155.1151.8154.1154.4155.0148.2141.0146.3147.1137.1134.6145.5133.9131.6128.4115.0119.0116.7119.5124.3124.0123.6120.3119.6

287.2245.6259.4271.0276.7269.2243.0254.3252.4222.6244.6231.4213.7200.9194.1184.7199.8204.3188.5175.7178.3166.5165.3169.3171.6166.8153.8154.9158.9155.6157.9158.2158.9151.9144.5150.0150.8146.4142.8155.6146.2146.4138.7124.8130.9125.9127.2130.8130.2130.2126.9

Area perGrower ha

3.653.203.613.984.434.554.334.935.104.815.515.285.115.065.145.085.585.655.515.335.765.655.866.236.576.526.657.057.697.888.408.969.399.089.46

10.4410.9814.0317.8819.8521.8023.4726.7334.0137.4537.9940.8943.7945.4747.3248.80

22.823.323.622.223.526.225.126.225.426.128.930.329.132.433.323.222.229.936.734.637.234.839.632.640.639.439.641.041.538.439.338.147.144.843.340.846.046.843.244.041.043.848.246.645.946.143.441.445.747.546.1

TotalProduction

'000s tonnes

6,5585,7286,1096,0246,5147,0656,1046,6746,4025,8207,0767,0216,2146,5176,4694,2874,4296,1086,9176,0756,6315,7946,5395,5176,9656,5676,0876,3586,5905,9736,1986,0327,4816,8086,2636,1206,9416,8536,1716,8435,9936,4106,6835,8126,0095,8055,5285,4095,9466,1925,849

Av. OverallPrice Index

Ware £/t

14.2714.8219.0818.7625.40

103.95133.46

43.1943.9958.8244.4383.5153.40

125.7549.2657.0286.5271.8562.5599.0978.2085.7056.6979.52

156.86137.12

66.4676.29

147.1667.35

122.00111.06

69.30128.32

94.57107.69134.17142.71124.92

99.23161.67

RetailPriceIndex

1920222428344046505767758185899598

102107115126134139141145150153158163166171174176181187192199207217213224

Avg£/tonne2010 £s

167.24158.76190.85171.84200.57660.90728.34203.54191.43225.71144.49242.69142.90321.71120.02130.94192.15153.14127.08186.82134.69143.22

91.20126.39242.93205.13

97.34108.55201.83

91.14159.79142.70

88.14158.62113.45125.57151.48154.28129.13104.21161.67

£

*Total plantings were not estimated prior to 1996. An allowance of 2.5% is added to registered plantings**2011 data are provisional estimates as at 25 August 2011

2,339** 126.3** 51.13** 46.5** 5,870*

GB Areas, Production and Prices 1960-2011

GB Potatoes

7

SuppliesHome Crop

from previous seasonfrom current crop

ImportsFreshProcessed*Seed

Total

DisposalsHuman ConsumptionExports

FreshProcessed*Seed

Seed for next cropInterventionClosing stocksStockfeed & wastageTotal

1989

3145,981

460535

447,334

5,799

815431

4930

286591

7,334

1990

2866,203

331536

447,400

5,710

664852

49532

293703

7,400

1991

2936,049

363561

467,313

5,561

1027233

5030

409633

7,313

1992

4097,500

368599

248,899

6,008

877538

473869421928

8,899

1993

4216,820

364753

358,393

6,404

1187227

44344

359926

8,393

1994

3596,270

402686

557,771

6,032

2227942

451

295650

7,771

1995

2956,124

475641

357,570

5,801

1087052

480

360698

7,570

1996

3606,956

336708

228,383

6,134

1478859

421

2811,2538,383

1997

2816,869

333920

178,420

6,140

160122

67412

3271,1928,420

1998

3276,180

3721,028

217,929

5,847

160111

70425

347969

7,929

1999

3476,854

2731,121

198,613

6,450

150115

71409

2241,1948,613

2000

2245,998

6681,084

378,011

6,391

91123

69398

192748

8,011

2001

1926,417

4181,274

378,338

6,255

122149

71393

372977

8,338

2002

3726,694

3571,418

288,870

6,691

223165

81348

3021,0618,870

2003

3025,819

3351,368

407,864

5,615

81206

77393

3601,1317,864

2004

3606,009

3731,335

218,098

6,076

101216

80372

360893

8,098

2005

4355,805

3001,244

307,814

5,530

133174

85372

4151,1057,814

2006

4155,528

3161,295

137,566

5,557

188355

82321

354710

7,566

2007

3545,409

4201,141

147,338

5,492

131147

91324

206947

7,338

2008

2065,946

3251,309

177,804

5,514

139166

95324

3721,1937,804

2009

3726,192

2241,274

188,081

5,399

175151

89311

3681,5888,081

2010

3685,849

2471,338

257,827

5,244

270184106280

3091,4337,827

*Raw equivalent

Annual Balance Sheet of Potato Supplies and Disposals 1989-2010Quantities in thousands metric tonnes - Seasons from 1 June of year shown to 31 May of following year

Retail Potato andPotato Products

FreshCanned/OtherDehydratedCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal Retail

Food Service andPotato Ingredients

RawCanned/Dehydrated/OtherCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal Food Service

Total Usage

GB Population ('000s)Per Capita Consumptionkg/head/year

FreshProcessedTotal

Retail & Food Service‘000s tonnes

RetailFood ServiceTotal

1989

2,7791825

379420

3,621

1,058312

202605

2,1785,799

55,687

68.935.2

104.1

3,6212,1785,799

1990

2,8431525

389395

3,667

956300

207580

2,0435,710

55,831

68.034.2

102.3

3,6672,0435,710

1991

2,6932126

427463

3,630

855297

150629

1,9315,561

55,831

63.536.199.6

3,6301,9315,561

1992

2,5772237

506509

3,650

1,099314

128818

2,3586,008

55,955

65.741.7

107.4

3,6502,3586,008

1993

2,5002422

508564

3,618

1,554263

177793

2,7866,404

56,078

72.341.9

114.2

3,6182,7866,404

1994

2,3882121

434457

3,321

1,257391

200862

2,7116,032

56,218

64.842.5

107.3

3,3212,7116,032

1995

2,3742431

578560

3,567

1,014340

144736

2,2345,801

56,376

60.142.8

102.9

3,5672,2345,801

1996

2,3862319

645672

3,745

1,221331

107730

2,3896,134

56,503

63.844.7

108.6

3,7452,3896,134

1997

2,1492237

587696

3,491

1,316224

137972

2,6496,140

56,643

61.247.2

108.4

3,4912,6496,140

1998

2,1771944

518725

3,482

845236

2211,0622,3645,847

56,797

53.249.7

102.9

3,4822,3645,847

1999

2,0033043

476806

3,357

1,457367

2181,0503,0936,450

57,005

60.752.5

113.2

3,3573,0936,450

2000

1,8863345

481838

3,284

1,647203

1941,0623,1066,391

57,203

61.849.9

111.7

3,2843,1066,391

2001

1,8573354

508894

3,346

1,292214

2551,1482,9096,255

57,424

54.854.1

108.9

3,3462,9096,255

2002

1,8073460

538899

3,338

1,550302

3441,0373,2336,571

57,625

58.355.8

114.0

3,3383,2336,571

2003

1,7383477

559928

3,336

739265

2331,0422,2795,615

57,851

42.854.297.1

3,3362,2795,615

2004

1,7983294

537938

3,400

1,150216

3021,0082,6766,076

58,132

50.753.8

104.5

3,4002,6766,076

2005

1,8163099

547903

3,396

732216

209978

2,1345,530

58,511

43.551.094.5

3,3962,1345,530

2006

1,77927

106536868

3,317

1,016118

211895

2,2405,557

58,843

47.546.994.4

3,3172,2405,557

2007

1,8712543

569911

3,419

802220

148903

2,0735,492

59,227

45.147.692.7

3,4192,0735,492

2008

1,92722

120584944

3,597

592133

1551,0371,9175,514

59,623

42.350.292.5

3,5971,9175,514

2009

1,92520

109606953

3,613

559232

107888

1,7865,399

60,003

41.448.690.0

3,6131,7865,399

2010

1,89118

101624960

3,594

247158

1401,1041,6505,244

60,463

35.451.486.7

3,5941,6505,244

Raw to processed weight conversion ratios used are: Canned 1:1, Crisped 4:1, Dehydrated 6.2:1, Frozen 1.9:1NB. The 2010 !gures are provisional and will be updated in late November 2011

Consumption and Processing of Potatoes in GB 1989-2010Quantities in thousands metric tonnes raw equivalent - Seasons from 1 June of year shown to 31 May of following year


8

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1Ju

l

1Au

g

1Se

p

1O

ct

1N

ov

1D

ec

1Ja

n

1Fe

b

1M

ar

1A

pr

1M

ay

1Ju

n

2000

2001

2002

20032010

2004

200520082009

2006

2007

Pric

e£/

tonn

e

Free Market Weekly Average Price Index 2000-2010

• During the season, the WeeklyAverage Price (WAPS) showstypical patterns, depending onthe level of supply

• From July to the end of October,prices usually decline as supplyincreases. Sometimes summerprices are steady to earlySeptember if harvestingprogresses slowly

• Once lifting is complete, pricesfrom storage will graduallyincrease over the season unlessthere is over-supply, in which casethey remain relatively flat

• Post-Christmas, there is a periodof weaker demand, followed by arally in prices from March onwards

• As the new crop becomesavailable from May, old cropprices may drop sharply but, if thenew crop is late, they may remainstrong into June

Raw tonnage used forCanned/Dehydrated/OtherCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal raw tonnage

SourceHome-GrownImported as raw potatoes

Total GB production% used for processing

1989

184601709

1,494

1,264230

5,98121%

1990

152606706

1,464

1,298166

6,20321%

1991

163594816

1,573

1,391182

6,04923%

1992

172646

1,0111,829

1,645184

7,50022%

1993

153697964

1,814

1,632182

6,82024%

1994

172646

1,0111,829

1,628201

6,27026%

1995

181685

1,0331,899

1,661238

6,12427%

1996

188701

1,1021,991

1,823168

6,95626%

1997

97719

1,1391,955

1,788167

6,86926%

1998

85732

1,1771,994

1,808186

6,18029%

1999

157684

1,2352,076

1,939136

6,85428%

2000

148666

1,1631,977

1,643334

5,99827%

2001

140664

1,2672,070

1,861209

6,41729%

2002

140671

1,1501,961

1,782179

6,69427%

2003

168661

1,1461,975

1,808168

5,81931%

2004

138752

1,1202,009

1,823187

6,00930%

2005

117697

1,0981,912

1,762150

5,80530%

2006

15702

1,1051,821

1,663158

5,52830%

2007

18691

1,1161,825

1,615210

5,40930%

2008

13737

1,1031,852

1,690162

5,94628%

2009

86720986

1,792

1,680112

6,19227%

2010

39757

1,1561,952

1,828124

5,84931%

Imports ofProcessed ProductsCanned/Dehydrated/OtherCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal

Exports ofProcessed ProductsCanned/Dehydrated/OtherCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal

1989

1949

356559

152

3754

1990

2249

328561

252

3259

1991

2319

340580

393

3274

1992

2319

385625

203

3255

1993

18510

461656

203

3053

1994

3079

388704

333

4279

1995

26361

336660

373

3676

1996

22780

596903

316

5289

1997

22640

654920

321478

124

1998

25337

7391,028

319

78117

1999

33341

7471,121

381072

121

2000

18844

8531,084

471561

123

2001

226138909

1,274

571776

149

2002

309233876

1,418

532389

165

2003

297156914

1,368

892592

206

2004

274116944

1,335

6930

117216

2005

28192

8711,244

523389

174

2006

33884

8721,295

10239

214355

2007

29774

7701,141

264873

147

2008

29361

9561,309

305878

166

2009

30851

9151,274

335960

151

2010

31360

9641,338

765256

184

Imports and Exports of Processed Potatoes 1989-2010Quantities in thousands metric tonnes - Seasons from 1 June of year shown to 31 May of following year

Tonnage of Potatoes used for Processing in GB 1989-2010Quantities in thousands metric tonnes - Seasons from 1 June of year shown to 31 May of following year

GB Potatoes

9

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Regi

ster

edp

lant

edar

ea('0

00s

ha)

Num

ber

ofre

gist

ered

grow

ers

50

0

100

150

200

250

300

10,000

0

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Planted Area

Number of Growers

Trends in Planted Area and Number of Growers 1960-2011

• Area has declined by 56%from 1960

• The number of growers hasfallen much more steeplyand is now only 3% of the1960 number

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Prod

ucti

on('0

00s

tonn

es)

Har

vest

edyi

eld

(ton

nes/

ha)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Production Yield per ha Yield Trend

Yield per ha and Total Production 1960-2010

• In spite of the 56% drop in area,production has remained at around6 million tonnes as yields have risen,driven mainly by improved cropprotection, fertiliser regimes,varieties and irrigation

• The last decade has seen alevelling off in this trend of increasingyield. Annual fluctuations in yieldand production are mainly due toweather


©Graem

eStroud

10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

%To

nnag

etr

aded

2000

2005

2010

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% of purchasers (largest to smallest)

Percentage of Tonnage Traded by Percentageof Large to Small Purchasers 2000-2010

Are

ap

ergr

ower

(ha)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Area per Grower

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Planted Area per Grower 1970-20101997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Volu

me

trad

ed('0

00s

tonn

es)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000Other Peelers Processors Packers

Crop Year

Volume Traded by Purchaser Type 1997-2010

• Average area planted per growerhas risen from 5.5 to 48.8 hasince 1970

• The industry is now more highlycapitalised and specialised thanformerly, a trend which iscontinuing

• The structure of purchases hasnot changed since 1999

• 80% of the tonnage traded isby 20% of the largest purchasingbusinesses

• 95% of the tonnage traded isby 60% of the largest purchasingbusinesses. The remaining 5% ispurchased by 40% of the smallestpurchasing businesses

GB Potatoes

11

2010200520001996

Num

ber

ofG

row

ers

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

3,000

2,500

6,169

4,550

2,465

3,073

2010200520001996

Are

a%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

In summary

The average area per grower has increased from11 hectares in 1996 to 49 hectares in 2010. Today,12% of the total grower base plant 100 hectaresof potatoes or more and this now equates to50% of the total planted area.

How the area haschanged within thesize bands

Since 1996, the followingchanges have taken place:

• In 1996, the area grownby producers from 3-9hectares was 10%, this hasreduced to 3% in 2010

• Around 35% of the areawas from producers under30 hectares. In 2010 thiswas 16%

• In 2010, over 50% of thepotato area was producedby growers over 100hectares, a rise of 21% in14 years

How growernumbers have changed

Since 1996, the followingchanges have taken place:

• The total number ofregistered potatoproducers (>3ha) hasdeclined by 60% from6,169 to 2,465

• In 1996, 77% of the growerbase planted under 30hectares, this has fallenby 19% and accountedfor 58% in 2010

• In 1996, only 3% of thegrower base planted100 hectares or moreof potatoes. In 2010, thishad risen to 12%, with1.5% of the growers atover 300 hectares

3 - 9 ha

10 - 29 ha

30 - 99 ha

100 - 299 ha

300+ ha

Total

Number of Potato Growers by Size Band in Hectares

The Percentage of the Area Grown by Size Band (Hectares)

Consolidation of the GB Industry

Approximately1/3 of GB productionis on rented land


Although annual GB production is relatively stable, it is producedfrom fewer hectares and far fewer growers. The charts below clearlyshow how this has changed in the 14 years from 1996 to the lastcomplete season in 2010.

12

Early Crop Development in Great Britain 2008 - 2011

GB Potatoes

1316233675

149313474445536884

1,1261,3781,409

6,876

Up to 30 Apr01 May - 07 May08 May - 14 May15 May - 21 May22 May - 28 May29 May - 04 Jun05 Jun - 11 Jun12 Jun - 18 Jun19 Jun - 25 Jun26 Jun - 02 Jul03 Jul - 09 Jul10 Jul - 16 Jul17 Jul - 23 Jul24 Jul - 30 Jul

Total to 30 Jul

1920326592

181256343513767916

1,3021,3141,231

7,052

123490

134172288234249621

1,1481,7461,8351,895

8,457

15438596

149157242328565825

1,0611,3321,6421,783

8,324

2008Week in early seasonDates 2011 2009 2010 2011

Hectares Cleared

12,03310,967

8,5436,9696,4808,0337,5366,6166,2935,8655,6905,4095,4045,492

5,846


Total to 30 Jul

9,1079,3877,6237,3756,8075,6035,7555,4545,3584,5104,5234,7544,7384,576

4,888

13,59812,73711,31011,79212,02210,994

7,8476,1255,4255,1815,3506,5756,790

6,547

15,23711,064

8,6847,5926,1725,6855,2615,7346,1175,7995,4415,2925,4055,254

5,581


Gross Return £/ha

7.17.79.9

13.113.414.716.817.918.320.725.928.231.835.4

27.0


Total to 30 Jul

7.712.615.416.919.420.221.221.627.126.932.135.639.438.8

32.6

7.610.113.014.214.515.216.819.822.926.729.434.436.0

29.2

9.612.214.216.517.518.919.322.328.131.735.237.240.741.3

34.9


Yield (tonnes/ha)

151174193254487

1,1962,3563,1372,8023,1415,0316,0897,4487,739

40,196


Total to 30 Jul

173186248478629

1,0131,4751,8732,7473,4594,1456,1886,2275,635

34,474

161433

1,0131,5852,0633,1641,8381,5283,3665,9469,343

12,06512,867

55,373

235479739726919893

1,2741,8803,4564,7855,7737,0518,8769,369

46,456


Value £'000s

Source: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre

90122223476

1,0092,1835,2658,4648,133

11,09422,89731,75243,85549,950

185,512


Total to 30 Jul

147249500

1,0961,7943,6615,4397,415

13,88520,64029,41546,29051,72047,770

230,021

90342

1,1681,9072,4934,3663,9454,930

14,18530,61551,40563,07568,230

246,751

148529

1,2111,5802,6032,9724,6737,313

15,89026,14037,40549,50566,84073,590

290,399


Tonnes Moved

1,686.031,422.95

865.84533.60482.41548.05447.53370.63344.47283.14219.71191.77169.83154.93

216.68


Total to 30 Jul

1,175.85747.59495.34436.09350.46276.74271.13252.63197.81167.59140.93133.67120.40117.95

149.88

1,788.891,266.67

866.93831.55827.68724.73465.80309.92237.32194.22181.76191.28188.58

224.41

1,586.49905.02610.10459.43353.11300.40272.67257.02217.51183.07154.35142.44132.80127.32

159.97


Average Price (£/tonne)

13

Canned Potatoes£11m (0.3%)

Other FrozenPotato products

£202m

Dry Pasta £234m

Fresh Pasta £130mChilled Rice £24m

FreshPotatoes£1.06bn

Frozen Chips £366m

Chilled Prepared Potatoes£174m

Instant Mashed Potato£13m (0.3%)

Crisps£855m

Savoury Snacks£779mAmbient Rice + Savoury Noodles

£424m

25%

20%

18%10%

9%

5%

5%

3%

4%

Size and Share of the Carbohydrates Market 2008/2011 (Retail Data)

Breakdown of Total In-home Potato Meal Occasions

Expenditure (£s) 52 w/e 4 Sep 2011

All data on this page - Source: KantarWorldpanel

12%

33%

10%

4%

12%

16%

7%

2

4%

12%

33%

10%

3%

12%

17%

6%

2

5%

% Potato Consumption in 2008 % Potato Consumption in 2011

In-home Consumption 12m/e Aug 2011

Value 2011

FreshPotatoes£1.03bn

Canned Potatoes£13m (0.4%)

Other FrozenPotato products

£192m

Dry Pasta £180m

Fresh Pasta £107m

Chilled Rice £22m (1%)

Frozen Chips £311m

Chilled Prepared Potatoes£22m (1%)

Instant Mashed Potato£15m (0.4%)

Crisps£659m

Savoury Snacks£614mAmbient Rice + Savoury Noodles

£321m

30%

19%

18%9%

9%

6%

5%

3%

Expenditure (£s) 52 w/e 7 Sep 2008

Value 2008

Volume (‘000 tonnes) 52 w/e 4 Sep 2011

Volume 2011

FreshPotatoes

1,640

Frozen Chips311

Ambient Rice + Savoury Noodles148

Crisps 124

Savoury Snacks 108

Fresh Pasta 30 (1%)

Canned Potatoes 20 (0.7%)

Dry Pasta 139

Chilled PreparedPotatoes 7 (0.3%)

Instant Mashed Potato5 (0.2%)

Chilled Rice6 (0.2%)

Other Frozen Potato products141

61%

12%6%5%

5%

5%

4%

Volume (‘000 tonnes) 52 w/e 7 Sep 2008

Baked/Jacket Potatoes

Boiled/Mashed Potatoes

Homemade Roast Potatoes

Frozen Roast Potatoes

Frozen Chips

Homemade Chips

Other Frozen

Other Fresh

Crisps


FreshPotatoes

1,670

Frozen Chips337

Ambient Rice + Savoury Noodles167

Crisps 136

Savoury Snacks 115

Fresh Pasta 34 (1%)

Canned Potatoes 23 (0.8%)

Dry Pasta 160

Chilled PreparedPotatoes 51 (1.8%)

Instant Mashed Potato5 (0.2%)

Chilled Rice6 (0.2%)

Other Frozen Potato products139

59%

12%6%5%

6%

5%

4%

Volume 2008

14

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Cons

ump

tion

-raw

equi

vale

nt(k

g/h

ead

/yea

r)

%Fr

esh

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

June of year shown to May of following year

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Total Per Capita Consumption in GB 1988-2010(Including Imports)

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Cons

ump

tion

-raw

equi

vale

nt('0

00to

nnes

)

%So

urce

dfr

omH

ome

Cro

p


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

65

70

75

80

85

90

Retail and Other Consumption in GB 1988-2010

Total

3 Year Average

Fresh

Processed

Fresh %

Total Consumption

3 Year Moving Average

Foodservice & Ingredients

Retail

GB Supply %

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Cons

ump

tion

(%ra

weq

uiva

lent

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Consumption by Product Groups 1988-2010

Retail - Fresh

Catering - Raw

Frozen - Chilled

Crisped

Canned - Dehydrated

GB Potatoes

15

The European Market

The impacts on the EU and the GB potato market of increased tradeliberalisation have been significant.

An economic and political union of 27 independentmember states, the European Union (EU), hasdeveloped a single market with an overarching policyto promote the free movement of people, goods,services and capital.

The impacts on the EU and the GB potato market ofincreased trade liberalisation have been significant.While France remains the largest EU exporter of freshpotato products, the Netherlands continues toconsolidate its position as the largest exporter ofprocessed potato products and GB is an importantexport market for both. Currently GB is the fourthlargest customer of French fresh potato exports andthe second largest importer of Dutch processedpotato products. In production and capacity terms,Belgium is the fastest growing European potatoproducing country, having invested significantly inbuilding its capacity during the last five years. Thishas resulted in a more aggressive marketing of itsprocessed potato products throughout Europe,particularly to GB but also beyond to other worldwidemarkets.

The GB market is increasingly influenced by EU potatoproducer activities and supply chain structure.Currency fluctuations and a wide variation in annualmarket prices, due to external factors - such asweather conditions and pest and disease pressures -leave the GB market sensitive to imported Europeanproduct, dependent on price, quality and variety.

Recent trends in currency and a weak GB sterling ratehave led to an overall reduction in raw potato importsfor the fresh and processing market. However, changingmarket conditions could easily reverse that position.

Potato Council recognises the importance of havingreliable information to better understand Europeanand international potato market dynamics. This isachieved through a network of dedicated MarketIntelligence contacts in Europe, the Middle Eastand North Africa and the USA.

North-West European Potato Growers (NEPG)Established in 1997, representing the five leadingpotato growing countries, the NEPG aims to facilitatethe communication of up-to-date, accurate businessinformation for the benefit of the industry. (For a list ofmembers see page 26.) It also aims to improve thestability of the EU processing supply chain throughinformation provision and exchange. Potato Council isa member of the NEPG and, as such, gains uniqueinsight into the dynamics of the north-west Europeanpotato market and access to information onproduction as well as technical and marketing aspectsof NEPG countries.

Potato Council Euro ReportPotato Council reports market intelligence on theEuropean potato market in its monthly publication ofEuro-Potato as a comprehensive monthly review ofmarkets and crops from NEPG countries (see page 22).

2005NEPG Countries

Production ('000t)Annual VariationTotalArea (ha)Annual VariationTotalYield (t/ha)Annual VariationTotal

22,980

499,369

46.0

2006

-6.7%21,439

0.8%503,587

-7.5%42.6

2007

12.2%24,058

4.7%527,258

7.2%45.6

2008

-0.7%23,899

-2.3%515,338

1.6%46.4

2009

4.2%24,908

3.6%533,834

0.6%46.7

2010

-3.8%23,958

0.0%534,899

-3.8%44.9

6.8%25,574

1.3%540,684

5.5%47.3

2011

GrTurn

£ per G

Source: NEPG September 2011 (as at time of report publication). Based upon summer trial digs by the various member organisations apartfrom Great Britain whose yield is based upon the average from the last �ve years.Current information, including country-by-country breakdown will be available in December 2011.

EU 5 Conservation Potatoes (Excludes Seed and Starch) for Belgium, France, Germany, GB and the Netherlands


Modelling Work

%C

hang

ein

Pric

efr

omLa

stSe

ason

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

% Change in Production from Last Season

Forecasting Price from Production

%A

rea

Cha

nge

forN

extS

easo

n

2009 2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

20022001

2011

2000

1999

1998

1997

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

80 100 120 140 160 180 200

2010

Average Price £/t

Price Influence on Planted Area

1971-2010

1996-2010

Trend 1971-2010

Trend 1996-2010

Change in production correlates very wellwith change in price, accounting for 87%of variation seen. The data shown is from1970 onwards, with data from 1996 (afterprice stabilisation and quotas ended) ingreen. In general, a 1% change inproduction leads to a 5% change in price,though there are limits to very low prices(production more than 15% higher thanlast year). However, low production candrive very high prices, with price doublingif supply is 30% below the previous year.

Average price has clearly influencedplanting decisions since quotas ended in1996. The data shows that 75% of thevariation in planted area from season toseason depends on price in the previousseason. 2010 is an example: 2009 averageprice was £110. The model (red line)predicts a 3% fall in plantings at this level.The actual drop in plantings was 2.9%.2011 plantings, which are marginally downin spite of high 2010 prices, is a deviationfrom the model may be related to highcereal prices influencing plantingdecisions.

Taken with the effect of production onprice, this drives the cyclic nature of theproduction-price relationship. Low priceslead to reduced plantings, hence lowerproduction and higher prices, which in turnleads to a subsequent drop in plantings.

We have the capacity to undertake modelling work, which includes priceforecasting from production and how weather patterns affect yield.

1616 GB Potatoes

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Yiel

d(t

/ha)

Sum

mer

Rai

nfal

l(m

m)

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

17

Yield and Seasonal Rainfall

Rainfall

Yield

• GB average yields since1992 have fluctuatedaround 44.8 t/ha

- Moderate summerrainfall improves yield,up to a point

- Excess summer rainfalldecreases yield

Moderate summerrainfall improvesyield, up to a point

Excess summer rainfalldecreases yield


Suns

hine

(hou

rs)

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Sunshine 1960-2010

• Annual hours of sunshine in 2010remained similar to the previous year

• The hours of sunshine in all seasonswere very similar to 2009

• The general trend is accelerating

Annual Total

Annual Trend

18

Tem

per

atur

e(d

egre

esC

)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Temperature 1960-2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Yiel

d(t

/ha)

GB Yields 1960-2010

Weather Data for England and Walestaken from Met Office website:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/for rainfall, temperature and sunshine worksheets

• Average yields doubled from 1960to 1990, slower growth since

• Significant year-to-year variation dueto weather

Yield

Trend

• Mean annual temperature dropped byc.1 ⁰C, in 2010, this was mainly becauseof the cold weather in autumn

• The general trend of temperatureis increasing:

Pros: longer growing seasonand higher yield

Cons: Warmer winter favourspests and diseases

Annual Mean

June-August

March-May

Annual Trend

June-August Trend

March-May Trend

GB Potatoes

World Production

Commodity Production (MT)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Sugar cane

Maize

Wheat

Rice, paddy

Cow’s milk, whole, fresh

Potatoes

Vegetables, fresh

Cassava

Sugar beet

Soybeans

Tomatoes

Barley

Indigenous pig meat

Sweet potatoes

Watermelons

Bananas

Bu�alo milk, whole, fresh

Indigenous chicken meat

Onions, dry

Apples

1,661,251,480

818,823,434

685,614,399

685,240,469

583,401,740

329,581,307

248,591,881

233,795,973

227,158,114

223,184,884

152,956,115

152,125,329

106,587,529

102,297,894

98,047,947

97,378,272

92,138,146

80,211,981

73,231,830

71,286,632

Country 2007

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

*Potato Council data (see page 7)

Belarus

Montenegro

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Estonia

Rwanda

Poland

Ireland

Kazakhstan

Lebanon

Malawi

Kyrgyzstan

Romania

Latvia

Lithuania

Azerbaijan

Great Britain

Netherlands

Denmark

Portugal

188.9

178.3

133.5

130.9

127.2

125.2

122.9

113.2

111.6

104.4

100.4

98.3

98.0

97.9

96.8

94.6

92.7

92.0

81.6

81.1

*

Area Production (MT)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

*Potato Council data (see page 8)

China

India

Russian Federation

Ukraine

United States of America

Germany

Poland

France

Netherlands

Belarus

Great Britain

Bangladesh

Canada

Turkey

Iran (Islamic Republic of )

Romania

Egypt

Peru

Brazil

Belgium

73,281,890

34,391,000

31,134,000

19,666,100

19,569,100

11,617,500

9,702,800

7,226,310

7,181,000

7,124,980

6,192,000

5,268,000

4,581,120

4,397,710

4,107,630

4,003,980

4,000,000

3,716,700

3,443,710

3,296,080

*

World Production by Commodity 2009

World Top Potato Producers 2009

Potato Consumption - World Top 20(kg/capita/yr) 2007 raw equivalent

19Market Intelligence 2011-12

For the latestversions go to:

http://faostat.fao.org/

Source: FAOSTAT

The Potato Council MarketInformation Committee

Appendix 1

20 GB Potatoes

Potato Council Market Information Committee 2011/12

Grower MembersRichard Ash – KentColin Bradley – LancashireJohn Davison – StaffordshireRalph Day – LincolnshireRobert Loxton – NorfolkArnold Peacock – CambridgeshireAndrew Shaw – CheshireRichard Solari – Shropshire

Purchaser MembersRobert Baird – Greenvale AP LtdRichard Clark – Branston LimitedMartin Cockerill – R S Cockerill (York) LtdGraham Finn – McCain Foods (GB) LtdStephen Uttridge – Higgins Agriculture Ltd

Industry StakeholdersJames Edwards – National Farmers Union (NFU)Richard Harris OBE – Director General of the Potato Processors AssociationKathleen Kelliher – DefraJohn Speirs – Scottish GovernmentNick Tapp (Committee Chairman and Potato Council Board Member) – Bidwells

Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) MembersKen Boyns – AHDB Market Intelligence DirectorRob Clayton – Potato Council DirectorJim Davies – AHDB Market Intelligence Senior AnalystAllan Stevenson – Potato Council Chairman

Market Intelligence data and deliveries areregularly peer reviewed via the Potato CouncilMarket Information Committee. The committeeis made up of potato growers, packers,processors, industry bodies, government andseed suppliers to ensure the informationprovided continues to meet current industryneeds. The committee also recommends newareas of focus as the potato industry develops.

The latestelectronic versionof this report isavailable at:

www.potato.org.uk/knowledge-hub/publications

OCT DEC - MAR MAR - MAY MAY - JUL JUNAPR - NOV APR

SEP SEP - OCT NOV DEC - MARNOV OCT - JUL

JUN - AUG JUN - SEP AUG AUG - NOV JUL - OCT

Field selectionand soil testing

Seed deliveryand chitting

*Plantingsurvey

*Levy returndata

*Grower Panelsurvey

*Earlycrop line

*1st plantingestimate

*Annual trends(previous season)

Tuber bulking(!eld quality &

size testing)

*Area byvariety

*Lifting survey Supply fromthe !eld

*Grower Panelsurvey

Store loading *Provisionalsupply estimate

*Defracontract

*Stocks andutilisation

Supplyex store

How Market Intelligence surveys and publications fit into the potato calendar:

Potato Council Data Collection1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Prod

uctio

n('0

00s

tonn

es)

Har

vest

edyi

eld

(ton

nes/

ha)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Production Yield per ha Yield Trend

*AHDB/Potato Council Market Intelligence outputs

of the total cropis stored by growers

on the farm

55%

21

Appendix 2


Potato Council MarketIntelligence Information Services

Potato Council website

www.potato.org.uk is the first port of call for annual and seasonalanalysis on price and crop reporting, statistics on area, yield,production, supplies and disposals, plus retail and foodservicedata. The website also contains the latest version of the GBWeekly Price and monthly Euro-Potato newsletters.

Potato Weekly

Potato Weekly summarises weekly price information gatheredfrom the Potato Council’s own surveys. The Weekly AveragePrice Survey (WAPS) provides two overall indexes, the WAPSIndex and the WAPS Free-Buy Index. These prices are summarisedfrom returns made each week by contributing merchants covering40-50% of movements. It is a top-line economic indicator of thepotato industry and is also used by the Eurex Potato Futuresmarket as a settlement price for London Potatoes. A weeklycompilation based on the Potato Council’s Pricing Panel and fromtelephone surveys of merchants also provides more detailed high,low and average prices by varieties and market sectors.

Euro-Potato

Euro-Potato is a monthly review of crops and markets from themajor potato growing countries in northern Europe and beyond.

AHDB Potato Market Intelligence providesa range of information services to assistproducers and merchants with immediatepricing decisions, market planning andunderstanding the longer-term trends inthe potato industry.

New andimproved website

�Better navigation

�Better layout

�Easier to findthe informationyou need

22 GB Potatoes

Appendix 3

Retail Report

The Retail Report and Foodservice Report were createdby the Market Intelligence Consumer Insight team. They areproduced from data that we have been able to access at reducedcost due to collaborative purchasing by AHDB.

The monthly Retail Report covers data, including top-line marketsales information, for fresh, frozen and pre-prepared potatoes. Thereport also looks at how potatoes are performing by retailer, withall of the top five supermarkets covered. It also contains pricinginformation and a section that provides snippets of the latestpotato news in the media. The majority of the data usedin the report is sourced from Kantar Worldpanel.

Foodservice Report

The quarterly Foodservice Report utilises information fromNPD Crest. The foodservice market is defined as food and drinkpurchased and consumed outside of the home. The report looksat how potatoes are performing in terms of what is being eatenand where.

Consumer Report

The quarterly Consumer Report also utilises data from Kantarbut looks at the in-home consumption of potatoes. So, whereasthe Retail Report details what people are purchasing, theConsumer Report tells us what, how and when they are consumingpotatoes. The main focus of the report is the potato category butthis is also put into a competitive context with information on thetotal carbohydrates category, which covers rice and pasta.

Telephone Bag Line

The national bag trade hotline is updated each Tuesday(tel: 0844 3356 104). The hotline provides the latest on crop andprice information for bag sales. (Calls cost 5p per minute fromBT lines.)

The Early Crop Line

A regional early crop price line is also available from May to Julyeach year and the telephone number is advertised in PotatoWeekly and on www.potato.org.uk


Levy-Payer Data Centre

The data centre features informationgathered from a stratified sample of 350growers, 500 weekly market informationcontacts and national planting return data.Go to: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre

Levy-payers who are registeredon the Potato Council website(www.potato.org.uk) can accessreal-time potato marketinformation in Great Britain onareas, varieties, yields, productionand prices.

Information:

• By variety• By geography• By sector

24 GB Potatoes

Appendix 4

Data Sources

Levy Collection DataThe Agriculture and Horticulture Development BoardOrder 2008 requires AHDB to raise levies relating toeach sector. (Details can be found at the following webaddress: http://www.ahdb.org.uk/about/LevyRates.aspx)

The information provided in the planting return forlevy collection is not only used to calculate area leviesbut it is also a very important source of marketintelligence. Using the return data avoids the need forseparate forms and helps save levy funds. The marketsector information of the planting return form gives ususeful knowledge about the GB potato market; ithelps us develop our communication strategy andenables us to provide information and feedback togrowers in a more targeted and cost efficient manner.

The Potato Council Pricing PanelThe Panel is open to growers who wish to contributeprice information; to ensure wide and accuratecoverage of the pricing situation from week to week.A total of 200 regular contacts - a combination ofgrowers and purchasers - are called on a weekly basis.These contacts represent the key supply areas for thedifferent markets of the potato supply chain andvarieties grown across different regions of GB. If youare interested in becoming a Pricing Panel member,please call the AHDB Market Intelligence departmenton 0247 669 2051.

Weekly Average Price Survey (WAPS)This survey is open to all merchants or processorswho purchase potatoes direct from growers. Theycomplete a form each week summarising total tonnageand value of purchases, categorised by bags/bulk andcontract/free-buy. This data is subject to randomauditing. These are processed by the Market Intelligenceteam to calculate the WAPS average price and free-buyaverage price. This ensures that the WAPS index is asfair, robust and representative as possible. This helps togive realism and stability to the London futures marketand accuracy to economic assessments of the potatoindustry. For further information on joining the WAPSsurvey, please call the AHDB Market Intelligencedepartment on 0247 669 2051.

Potato Council Grower Panel SurveyThis survey is based on a randomly selected sampleof fields. Growers within the sample are invited toparticipate. They complete three forms which coverinformation on agronomy, seed use, yields, storageand marketing of production from the designated field.To cover their time for this, panel members receive£100 per field. Additionally, through the Grower Panelwebsite there is access to current and detailed GrowerPanel and Pricing Panel summaries and growers canview and edit their own field information on thewebsite. An invitation is sent with the AHDB plantingreturn forms each year. The survey also monitorsplanting and lifting of the GB crop.

776Grower Panel

Crops

8Survey

Contractors

PotatoCouncil

Potato Council Grower Panel Survey


Appendix 5

26 GB Potatoes

NEPG Representative Organisations

OrganisationsCountry

France

Belgium

Germany

The Netherlands

GB

UNPT – Union Nationale des Producteurs de Pommes de Terre.National Potato Grower Union.

Fiwap – Walloon region market information centre for potatoes and stock surveys.Represents regional potato growers on behalf of Government.

Interprovinciaal Proefcentrum voor de Aardappelteelt (PCA)– Flanders region potato research organisation.Also gathers economic data and price information. Farmers Union.

ABS – Farmers Union for smaller farmers.

AMI – Agrarmarkt Informations Gesellschaft; market research organisation, privatised in 2009.

REKA – Grower organisation for Rheinland area, one of the leading growing regions in Germany,mainly processing.

VTA – Market and price information centre for arable products, with 600 leading grower membersand represents 40% of the whole ware crop.

Pha! Export Marketing – Export marketing company.Represents Potato Council on the continent and has responsibility for translations in NEPG.

Potato Council – Potato industry representative organisation.

Appendix 6

More information is available at: www.nepg.info


Glossary

Earlies – Refers to all potatoes harvested on orbefore 31 July. At this time of year maincrop supplieswill still be available from the previous season’s crop.

Maincrop – Potatoes are denoted as being maincropif harvested after the end of July.

Prices – All prices are ex-farm and exclude the priceof bags.

Trend – In this context the word trend is used tohighlight the line or curve of best fit.

Years – All years are June/May unless otherwisestated.

Yields – All potato yields quoted in this publicationrelate to harvested tonnage and are expressed interms of planted area.

Plantings – All references to plantings imply themeasurement of planted area and refer to registeredproducers only.

Processed – All references to processed productshave been converted to their raw equivalent tonnages.

Conversion Rates – The following ratios have beenused to convert processed potato product weight toraw equivalent tonnage: Canned 1:1.0; Crisped 1:4.0;Dehydrated 1:6.2; Frozen/Chilled 1:1.9.

28

To give us your feedback on the report or for furtherinformation about our Market Intelligence services,please contact:

Jim Davies (Senior Analyst)T: 0247 647 8786M: 07581 628819E: [email protected]

Matthew Southam (Senior Analyst – Retail & Consumer Insight)T: 0247 647 8844E: [email protected]

www.ahdb.org.ukwww.potato.org.uk

GB Potatoes Market Intelligence 2011-12



Contacts

Potato CouncilAgriculture and Horticulture Development BoardStoneleigh Park, Warwickshire CV8 2TL

Telephone: 0247 669 2051www.potato.org.uk

© Agriculture and HorticultureDevelopment Board 2011.All rights reserved

Potato Council is a division of the Agricultureand Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)



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