Gazing Into The Void

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How much longer will we be able to rely on planar scaling to deliver Moore's Law? And what then?

Transcript of Gazing Into The Void

  • 1.1v0Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Engr, ARM Ltdian.phillips@arm.comVisiting Prof. at ...y p Many-Core WorkshopNEC, BirminghamContribution to Industry19mar12 Award 2008 The closer you are to death;the more you realize you are alive. The closer you are to death; the harder you cling to life.Top 5000 J.Simpson, Touching the Void, 19851

2. Moores Law: c1965 Moores Law was coined by Carver Mead in 1970, from GordonMoores article in Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965 "Cramming morecomponents onto integrated circuits .circuits The complexity for minimum p y component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over t dt ti tt iO the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for atyf least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such allarge circuit can be built on a single wafer i it b b ilt i lf Gordon Moore, Founder of Intel In 1965 he was designing ICs with ~50 transistors! g gMoores Law has held for ~50 years ... Taking us to 100B transistor ICs2 3. Approximate Process Geometryy31um 10um10nm100nm100umTransistorss/Chip (M) Moores Law ...XITRS99Transistor r/PM (K) 4. All Exponentials Have Got to End ... 130nm 90nm30nm 14nm 14 7nm 4 5. All Exponentials Have Got to End ... Growing opinion that 14 or 7nm will be the 130nmsmallest yieldable node (any process).90nm Just 3-4 gen. (5-8yr) to theend of Planar Scaling30nm Only things on O l thi the drawing board today ...14nm14... can get into the last of the of planar chips!7nm Its the end-of-the-road forpromising technologies ! Clean-Sheet Synthesis Scalable Processor Arrays Formal Design...The future lies with Hybrid, Top-Down DesignEvolutionary Architectures5 6. Approximate Process Geometryy61um 10um10nm100umTransistorss/Chip (M)100nm Moores Law ...XITRS99Transistor r/PM (K) 7. What Happened to the Productivity Gaps?Reuse Happened ! 1995 reuse quietly entered the picture ... Circuit Blocks CPUs (and Software) ... With External IP SupportingMethodology! Up-Integration (Incl. Software) Chip Reuse (ASSP)... Delivering Productivity Quality and Reliability Productivity,... Birth of HW/SW IP Companies (eg ARM)... But brought Architectural Chaos & Commoditisation of FABs7 8. Products Make Money 21c Businesses have to be Selling things that People (End-Customers) want to buy. Operations and Competition is Global and so are Investors Nationality has little meaning Business needs End-Customers buy Functionality not Technology Technologies enable Product Options Business-Models make Money New Products are Design is a Cost/Risk to be Minimised T h lTechnology (HW SW, Mechanics, O ti (HW, SW M h i Optics, etc)t )is (just) a means to a Product end! New Technology increases Cost/Risk ... But not always Value... Globalisation makes Business Focus on their Core-Competence!8 9. Architecting an iConic Many-Core Product ... 9 10. Its Not Solid Obsidian !?!Down 1-Level: ModulesThe Control Board.10 Source ... 11. The Control Board(A-side)Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies Visible Design-Team Members ... Samsung (flash memory) - (ARM Partner) Cirrus Logic (audio codec) - (ARM Partner)g ( ) ( ) AKM (Magnetic Sensor) Texas Instruments (Touch Screen Controller and mobile DDR) - (ARM Partner)Invisible Design-Team Members ... g Software Tools, OS & Drivers, GSM Security; Graphics, Video and Sound ... Manufacturing, Assembly, Test, Certification ...11 Source ... 12. The Control Board (B-side)Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies Visible Design-Team Members... A4 PProcessor, specified b A l d i ifi d by Apple, designed and manufactured b S d df t d by Samsung ... The central unit that provides the iPhone 4 with its GP computing power. Reported to contain ARM A8 600 MHz CPU (other ARM CPUs and IP) ST-Micro (3 axis Many Processors & Software gyroscope) - (ARM Partner) Broadcom (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS) - (ARM Partner) ..with.. Skyworks (GSM) and Evolutional Architecture ! Hybrid Triquint (GSM PA) Infineon (GSM Transceiver) - (ARM Partner)GPS Bluetooth, EDR &FM 12Source ... 13. Multicore ARM On-Chip ... Heterogeneous Multicore Systems have existed for a long time:Application UI & 3D graphics Power ManagerMali-400 Cortex-A8MP Cortex-M3Interconnect Memory13 14. Coherent Multicore Cluster Homogenous Multicore cluster, as part of a heterogeneous system:User Interface and 3D graphicsg pPower Manager gCortex-A9Cortex-A9Coherency Logic Mali-400 MP Cortex-M3Interconnect14 15. Multiple Clusters Multiple Homogeneous Coherent Clusters Cortex-A15 Cortex-A15Cortex-A15Cortex-A15Coherency Logic in L2 Cache Coherency Logic in L2 CacheCoherent Interconnect15 16. Multi-Processors on a ChipUsers require a pocket Super-Computer ... Silicon Technology Provides a few-Billion raw transistors ... ARMs IP makes it Practical to utilise them ... 10 Programmable Processors 11 Processors 4 x A9 Processors (2x2): But the Chip ArchitectureMALI 400 Fragment Proc: 4 x is also Hybrid and Evolutional ! 400 Vertex Proc 1 x MALI Proc. 1 x MALI Video CoDec Software Stacks, OSs and Design Tools/ ARM Technology giveschip/system designers agood start. And ...start Improves Productivity Improves TTM IImproves Quality/CertaintyQ lit /C t i t16 17. nVidea Tegra 3 Processor (~1B transistors) nVidea Tegra3 ARM ARM ARM ARM ARM ARM17 18. The Apple A4 SIP Package (Cross-section) MemoryPackage2 Memory DiesGlue Processor SOC Di P Die4-Layer Platform Package PackageIC PackagingThe processor is the centre rectangle. The silver circles beneath it are solder balls.Two rectangles above are RAM die, offset to make room for the wirebonds. Putting the RAM close to the pgprocessor reduces latency, making RAM faster and cuts p y,g power.Unknown Mfr (Memory)Samsung/ARM (Processor)Unknown (SIP Technology) 18 Source ... 19. 3D: Keeping Moores Law GoingMany-More CoresMany More Cores ...Hardware and Software ... Very-Hybrid Architecture ...Even-More PEMPower P bl Problems ...19 20. Reliability and RobustnessAs Process Geometry falls; Reliability and Robustness does as well Susceptibility to high-energy particles Wear-out mechanisms Variability State depe de cy State-dependency Imperfection in designCurrent 3D techniques are even more vulnerable to defects Throw away good chiplets with the bad-ones Additional chiplet/chiplet interactions Can t Cant fully test chiplets before assembly Increased assembly loss/imperfections Limited re-working potentialMust break the 100% functionality requirement Requires Functional on Imperfect (Design) Platforms20 21. The Failure of Power Scaling Node 45nm22nm11nm Year 2008 2014 2020 Area-1 1416 Peak freq1 1.6162.424 Power110.6 (4 x 1)-1 = 25% (16 x 0.6)-1 = 10% Dark Dark SiliconSiliconExploitable Si (in 45nm power budget)25% 10%Source: ITRS 2008 Severely limits the circuitry we can Turn On ! 21 22. ConclusionsPlanar Processing ends in 3-5yrs And takes with it all clean-sheet planar design possibilities 3D takes Moores Law into its next decadeProductivity through Reuse is Business Imperative Productivity Aids without Methods and Legacy Compatibility are UselessProductivity Aids Useless.Multi-Processor Architecture is driven by the System Functionality They will always be: Multi-Discipline, Multi-Process, Multi-Geometry, Multi-Architecture, Multi-Company, Multi-Die and Multi-Chip. All Architectures will be Hybrid and EvolutionaryPower Efficiency is not just a Societal Issue We cannot use what we can create without overcoming it (We need x100!)Business only needs to be better than its competitors Good enough; is enough.Cannot depend on 100% functionality any more Need F nctionalit despite imperfection in Design and Man fact reFunctionality Manufacture22 23. Multi-Processing: Just a means to an end!Its the System Stupid 23