Supercell Tornadoes, Non- Supercell Tornadoes, and Gustnadoes.
Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.
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Transcript of Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.
![Page 1: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters
![Page 2: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
http://physics.uwstout.edu/wx/Notes/
Introduction A: Importance of sounding information doing convective forecasts
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Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
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Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPE
![Page 5: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECIN
![Page 6: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECINSBCAPE
![Page 7: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECINSBCAPE
![Page 8: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECINSBCAPEMUCAPE
![Page 9: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECINSBCAPEMUCAPELCL
![Page 10: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECINSBCAPEMUCAPELCLLFC
![Page 11: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
![Page 12: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECINSBCAPE
CAPECIN ~ 0 J/kgSBCAPEMUCAPE
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Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECINSBCAPEMUCAPELCL
![Page 14: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Introduction B: Sounding-derived parameters using parcel-theory
CAPECINSBCAPEMUCAPELCLLFC
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Introduction C: Sounding-derived parameters in horizontal forecast charts
Is it useful to use them on horizontal maps?
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Introduction C: Sounding-derived parameters in horizontal forecast charts
Is it useful to use them on horizontal maps?
• Horizontal cross sections provide barely enough information for convective forecasts:
![Page 17: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Introduction C: Sounding-derived parameters in horizontal forecast charts
Is it useful to use them on horizontal maps?
• Horizontal cross sections provide barely enough information for convective forecasts: Inversions, moist layers, shear profile not well represented.
![Page 18: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Introduction C: Sounding-derived parameters in horizontal forecast charts
Is it useful to use them on horizontal maps?
• Horizontal cross sections provide barely enough information for convective forecasts: Inversions, moist layers, shear profile not well represented.
• Looking at forecast soundings or vertical cross sections yields required information, but it takes time to find regions of interest.
![Page 19: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Introduction C: Sounding-derived parameters in horizontal forecast charts
Is it useful to use them on horizontal maps?
• Horizontal cross sections provide barely enough information for convective forecasts: Inversions, moist layers, shear profile not well represented.
• Looking at forecast soundings or vertical cross sections yields required information, but it takes time to find regions of interest.
• Parameters highlight interesting regions as well as selective variables and are helpful...
• ...to get a brief overview.• ...to compare different numerical models.
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Introduction C: Sounding-derived parameters in horizontal forecast charts
Complex parameters using “significant” levels
• Total totals index (TOTL) = T850 + Td850 - 2 * T500 [°C]
• K index = T850 + Td850 - T500 - (T-Td)700 [°C]
• Sweat index = 12*Td850+20*(TOTL-49)+2*U850+5*U500+125*(0.2+sinf) where f=(wind direction500-wind direction850), U=wind speed[kts], TOTL=0 if TOTL<49
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Introduction C: Sounding-derived parameters in horizontal forecast charts
Complex parameters using significant levels• Total totals index (TOTL) = T850 + Td850 - 2 * T500 [°C]
• K index = T850 + Td850 - T500 - (T-Td)700 [°C]
• Sweat index = 12*Td850+20*(TOTL-49)+2*U850+5*U500+125*(0.2+sinf) where f=(wind direction500-wind direction850), U=wind speed[kts], TOTL=0 if TOTL<49
We do not use them for tornado forecasting.
• Using them requires a guide of “magical” numbers - and not physical understanding of the weather situation.
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“One-slide introduction” of myself…
Pieter Groenemeijer
• (almost) M.Sc. in Meteorology Utrecht University
• Oklahoma University (spring semester 2002)
• 2002 and 2004 European Severe Storms Conferences (Prague, León)
• ESWD (European Severe Weather Database)
• “Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands“
• Co-initiator of ESTOFEX (with Johannes Dahl and Christoph Gatzen), Oct, 2002.
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Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the NetherlandsPieter Groenemeijer (IMAU; ESTOFEX), Aarnout van Delden (IMAU)
F3 tornado near Deil, 25-06-1967. (A.C. Frenks)
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study done at Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht
Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands
![Page 25: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Main questions
• What sounding-derived parameters can be used to forecast tornadoes?
• ………………….. large hail?
sub-question:
• How do the results differ from studies from the United States?
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Basic idea
1. Find soundings taken in the proximity of severe weather events (here: tornadoes)
2. Find if they have special characteristics (w.r.t. other soundings)
method: look at parameters that represent something physical and that have been studied before
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Proximity soundings
What is a proximity sounding…?
Used definition:• within 4 hours of the sounding
(before or after)
• within 100 km from a point thatis advected by the 0-3 km meanwind from the sounding locationat the sounding time
![Page 28: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
• radiosonde observations
Dec 1975 – Aug 2003
(thanks to KNMI, DWD, KMI)
• severe weather reports from Dutch voluntary observers (VWK)
Data sets
Sinds 1974
Vereniging voor Weerkunde en Klimatologie (VWK)
http:/www.vwkweb.nl
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Data
soundings associated with: number
hail (2.0 - 2.9 cm)
hail (>= 3.0 cm)
tornadoes F0
tornadoes F1
tornadoes F2
waterspouts
thunder (1990-2000 only)
46
47
24
37
6
26
2045
all soundings 67816
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results…
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Most-unstable CAPE (MUCAPE)Number of events
maximum
median
75th perc.
25th perc.
MUCAPE not very high with tornadoes…
US studies: MUCAPE highly variable with tornadoes. Strong tornadoes may occur with low CAPE when shear is high
![Page 32: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Most-unstable CAPE released below 3 km A.G.L.
MUCAPE<3km high with F0, not with F1+
US studies: Davies (2004) has found a relation between tornado occurrence and high CAPE below 3km (in his study M.L.CAPE)...
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(most-unstable) LFC height (m)
LFC relatively low with tornadoes (esp. F0)…
US studies: Davies (2004) has found a relation between low LFC and tornado occurrence
![Page 34: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
LCL height (50 hPa mixed layer parcel)
US studies: Low LCL favors significant tornadoes, e.g. Craven et al. (2002)
LCL not sign. diff. between tornadic and thunder
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LARGE HAIL F0 F1+
Average soundings
note the distribution of parcel buoyancy with height
![Page 36: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
0-6 km A.G.L. bulk shear (m/s)
0-6 km bulk shear high with F2 tornadoes
US studies: strong tornadoes often occur with supercells associated with >20 m/s 0-6 km shear (e.g. Doswell&Evans, 2003)
![Page 37: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
0-1 km A.G.L. bulk shear (m/s)
0-1 km shear high with F1, esp. F2 tornadoes..
US studies: strong 0-1 km shear favours for sign. tornadoes (e.g. Craven et al., 2002).
![Page 38: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
0-1 km A.G.L. storm-relative helicity (m2/s2)
0-1 km shear high with F1, esp. F2 tornadoes..
US studies: high values favor supercell tornadoes (e.g. Rasmussen, 2003).
![Page 39: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
• F1 and esp. F2 tornadoes occur with higher-than-average 0-1 km shear (and SRH, but less clearly).
• F0 tornadoes (and waterspouts) occur with lower-than-average 0-1 km shear values
• (MU)CAPE is not extreme with tornadoes and thereby has limited value for tornado forecasting..
Some conclusions
![Page 40: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
• MUCAPE released below 3 km / low LFC heights seem to be important for the formation of weaker (and likely non-supercellular) tornadoes….
(but of course we rather want to forecast the stronger tornadoes)
• LCL heights are probably not as much a limiting factor for tornado development in the NL (and in Germany?) than in much of the U.S.A.
i.e. LCL heights are practically always low enough here for tornadoes
Some conclusions
![Page 41: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
back to Christoph….
References(ask me if you want to see this slide again)
Craven, J. P., H. E. Brooks, and J. A. Hart, 2002: Baseline climatology of sounding derived parameters associated with deep, moist convection. Preprints, 21st Conference on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, Texas, American Meteorological Society, 643–646.
Davies, J. M., 2002: On low-level thermodynamic parameters associated with tornadic and nontornadic supercells. Preprints, 21st
Conf. on severe local storms, Kananaskis Park, Alberta, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 558–592.
Davies, J. M., 2004: Estimations of CIN and LFC Associated with Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 714–726.
Doswell, C. A. III, and J. S. Evans, 2003: Proximity sounding analysis for derechos and supercells: An assessment of similarities and differences. Atmos. Res., 67-68, 117–133.
Rasmussen, E. N., 2003: Refined supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 530–535.
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Using parameters:A scenario for a weather pattern associated with “critical” values
In collaboration with Lars Lowinski (Meteos Munich) a scenario was designed that is characterized by “critical” values of mentioned parameters.
This scenario is based upon the synoptic situation of four tornado outbreaks over Central Europe:
• Aug. 1st, 1925 (NL, five tornadoes, one F4)• June 1st, 1927 (northwestern GER, four F3/F4 tornadoes)• June 24th, 1967 (northern F, F4/F5 tornadoes)• June 25th, 1967 (NL, four F3/F4 tornadoes)
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Using parameters:A scenario for a weather pattern associated with “critical” values
T
H592
584
576
568560
552
500 hPa level
• High geopotential over southern Europe due to well-mixed airmass originating from Atlas mountains
• Strong upper SW-erly jet streak coupled with negatively tilted short-wave trough
![Page 44: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Using parameters:A scenario for a weather pattern associated with “critical” values
Surface chart
• Frontal boundary with embedded frontal waves from Iberian Peninsula to northern Germany
• Easterly surface winds over Germany south of Scandinavian surface high pressure system
1015
1020
1015
1010
1010
L
L
H
H
1005
![Page 45: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Using parameters:A scenario for a weather pattern associated with “critical” values
3114
2722
1916
moist maritime airmass north of the warm front
rich low-level moisture underneath an inversion north of convergence line
well-mixed airmass south of convergence line
![Page 46: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Using parameters:A scenario for a weather pattern associated with “critical” values
3114
2722
1916
Warm sector north of the convergence zone:
• CAPE
• winds veer strongly with height
• strong low-level wind shear
• maybe low LFC heights
• quasigeostrophic forcing due to WAA and DCVA
![Page 47: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Using parameters:A scenario for a weather pattern associated with “critical” values
Would this scenario be associated with a tornado outbreak?
1020
1015
1010
1010
L
L
H
H
1005
![Page 48: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Using parameters:A scenario for a weather pattern associated with “critical” values
Would this scenario be associated with a tornado outbreak?
We don’t know.
Tornadogenesis is not well understood.
Probably, this scenario is associated with an enhanced chance for tornadoes.
1020
1015
1010
1010
L
L
H
H
1005
![Page 49: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Using parameters:23th June, 2004
Christian Schöps
Estofex
![Page 50: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
23 June, 2004: 500 hPa height, wind speed
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23 June, 2004: 850 hPa height, theta-e
![Page 52: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
23 June, 2004: MUCAPE, deep layer wind shear
![Page 53: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
23 June, 2004: MUCAPE, low level wind shear
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23 June, 2004: LCL height
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23 June, 2004: LFC height
![Page 56: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Soundings from north-central Germany. Proximity soundings were not available. Soundings indicate...
• rather weak CAPE• winds veer strongly with height• strong low level wind shear• rather low LFC heights
Note: Models did indicate SW-erly surface winds
![Page 57: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Conclusions
• Sounding information is essential for convective forecasts.
![Page 58: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Conclusions
• Sounding information is essential for convective forecasts.
• Parameters derived from model soundings give a good overview when plotted on maps.
![Page 59: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Conclusions
• Sounding information is essential for convective forecasts.
• Parameters derived from model soundings give a good overview when plotted on maps.
• They make it easy to compare different models or model runs.
![Page 60: Gatzen, Groenemeijer: Forecasting tornadoes using model- and sounding derived parameters.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d9ac55034679748b50e8/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Conclusions
• Sounding information is essential for convective forecasts.
• Parameters derived from model soundings give a good overview when plotted on maps.
• They make it easy to compare different models or model runs.
• Parameters without physical meaning are not used by Estofex. Learning “magical numbers” associated with complex variables won’t increase our knowledge about tornado forecasting.