GAS IN INDIA Contents Overview of Energy Scenario E&P sector in India Indian Natural Gas Industry...
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Transcript of GAS IN INDIA Contents Overview of Energy Scenario E&P sector in India Indian Natural Gas Industry...
GAS IN INDIA
Contents
Overview of Energy Scenario
E&P sector in India
Indian Natural Gas Industry
Demand and Supply
Impact of price
Infrastructure development
Regulatory issues
Overview of Energy Scenario
Energy mix – India and Global
India
7.8%
30.1%
55.5%
1.4%
5.2%
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Global
24.3%
37.5%
25.5%
6.5%6.3%
Natural Gas accounts for only 8% of current energy consumption against 24% global consumption
Overview of Energy Scenario
Annual consumption, Barrels per person
Country Population (Million) Per Capita Energy use
U.S 285 60.0
Canada 31 69.0
Australia 20 42.2
Japan 130 28.4
Spain 40 25.8
Mexico 100 10.1
Brazil 175 7.6
China 1300 6.6
India 1050 2.4
Bangladesh 140 0.8
Per capita energy consumption in India is bound to increase many fold due to robust GDP growth
Asymmetric Energy Use
Indian Natural Gas Industry
Proved Gas reserves: India - 30.1 TCF, World- 5501.4 TCF
Proved World Natural Gas reserves as on 1 Jan 2003
31%
15%9%
4%
4%
3%
31%
3%
Russia
Iran
Qatar
S.Arbia
UAE
US
Algeria
Rest
U.S Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,2025 (TCF)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025
15%
28%
Net importsConsumption
Production
Overview of Energy Scenario
U.S. Natural Gas imports break up till 2025 - (TCF)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
History Projections
Canada
Liquefied Natural Gas
Mexico
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2005
Overview of Energy Scenario
Overview of Energy Scenario
Country 2001 2010 2015 2020 2025
India 22 65 90 114 143
China 28 54 74 102 142
Japan 79 91 99 108 119
South Korea 20 28 37 43 51
Other Asia 139 153 173 198 230
Total 288 391 473 565 685
(In BCM)Future Natural Gas requirement of Asian countries
Overview of Energy Scenario
Minerals 29%
Coal & Lignite32%
Crude Oil & N Gas 39%
Mining Projects under Implementation in India
SEDIMENTARY BASINS
OF INDIA
CAT. I (PROVEN COMMERCIAL PRODUCTIVITY)
CAT. II (IDENTIFIED PROSPECTIVITY)
CAT. III (PROSPECTIVE BASINS)
CAT. IV (POTENTIALLY PROSPECTIVE)
DEEP WATER AREAS WITHIN EEZ
PRE-CAMBRIAN BASEMENT / TECTONISED
SEDIMENTS
E&P sector in India
SEDIMENTARY AREA
43%
13%
44%
Shallow Offshore0.40 MM.Km2
Onland1.39 MM.Km2
Deep Water1.35 MM.Km2
Total Sedimentary Area 3.14 MM.Km2
52%
27%
21%
Total Area Under License 0.99 MM.Km2.
Shallow Offshore
0.270 MM.Km2
Onland0.213 MM.Km2 Deep Water
0.514 MM.Km2
Distribution Under Exploration
E&P sector in India
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION IN JV AND PRIVATE SECTOR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Oil (MMT)
Gas (BCM)
O+OEG (MMT)
In M
MT
/BC
M
JV/Pvt. Share almost 13% of Oil & 21% Gas of National production
Year
E&P sector in India
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION IN INDIA - 2004
E&P sector in India
EXPECTED Vs ACTUAL INVESTMENTS
886.58
655.62
104.93 61.69
577.15
19.55 69.14
1637.8
736.86
0
500
1000
1500
2000
NELP-I (15) NELP-II (6) NELP-III (10) NELP-IV (6) Total (37)
In M
MU
S$
Committed
Actual
E&P sector in India
A
BAYOF
BENGAL
ARABIAN SEA
OilGas Km
0 400200
KANAKDURGA
PADMAVATI
ANNAPURNA
DHIRUBHAI – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 16
BHEEMA, NS
Delhi
Mumbai
Chennai
Kolkata
D-5D-6
RajasthanBasin
CB-OS/2
RJ-ON-90/1
KG-DWN-98/3
KG-DWN-98/2
BAYOF
BENGAL
TOTAL - 34
LAKSHMI PRE-NELP 15
ANNAPURNA NELP 19
I N D I ADHIRUBHAI – 9, 10, 11 & 15
CB-ONN-2000/1
CB-ONN-2000/2
PK-2
SARASWATI
RAAGESHWARI
GR-F
KAMESHWARI
MANGALA, AISHWARIYA
SHAKTI, BHAGYAM,
VIJAYA, VANDANA
LAKSHMI
AMBE
GAURI
PARVATI
CBX-1
E&P sector in IndiaNEW SIGNIFICANT DISCOVERIES
26 sedimentary basins Total area of 3.2mm sq. km
Only 18% moderate-to-well explored
Current proved reserves 5.6bn bbl of oil (R/P ratio: 19.3)
30.1 tcf of gas (R/P ratio: 28.3)
Concerns of limited discoveries in the past, offset by Limited drilling in offshore areas, believed to be more prolific
Reliance gas discovery, estimated up to 7 tcf
Cairn’s discovery in Rajasthan with oil reserves in excess of 1500 MMBOE
1 2003 Proved reserves as per BP Statistical Review, 2004 5
E&P sector in India
To Summarize ..
Indian Natural Gas Industry
Paradigm shift - clean energy and reducing emissions
Primary energy demand in India expected to grow strongly with robust GDP growth coupled with rising per capita income
Infrastructure development
Positive outlook to use gas
Demand for natural gas driven by the power and fertilizer sectors Power and fertilizer account for 37% and 35% of natural gas demand
respectively
Power sector projected to witness high growth to achieve Govt. plans
Natural gas has an important role to play in India’s energy needs
Indian Natural Gas Industry
Increase in share of Gas
2003 2025
7.8%
30.1%
55.5%
1.4%
5.2%
Natural Gas Oil Coal Nuclear Hydro
20.0%
25.0%
50.0%
3.0%
2.0%
Natural Gas accounts for 8% of current energy consumption which is expected to grow to 20% by 2025
Natural Gas allocation to consumers is more than current level of Production
13807
11053
8158
5332
497949794273
2472
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
2001-2002 2006-07 2011-12 2024-25
Demand
Supply
Ever Expanding Market…
Year
Demand and Supply - Natural Gas
(MMSCFD)
Indian Natural Gas Industry
Fertiliser Replacing naphtha/FO Existing gas based
plants Maximum volume tied
up by Fertilizer units
Power Competitive with coal
at certain locations Peaking capacities Excellent response in
use of LNG
Power37%
Fertilizer35%
Steel6%
Others14%
Transport8%
Sectorial consumption of Natural gas in India
Demand and Supply
LNG Terminal Capacity (MMTPA)
Dahej 5
Dahej Exp 5
Kochi 2.5
Shell Hazira 2.5
Dabhol 2.5
Mangalore 5
Kakinada 2.5
Total 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2007 2008 2010
Bridging the gap - Import of LNG
(MMTPA)
Demand and Supply
Bridging the gap - Increase in indigenous production
4.565.17
10.8 10.27 9
25.2
8.87.7
25.4 25.1
3435.6536
1412.2
0
10
20
30
40
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Oil (in MMT) Gas (in BCM) O+OEG (in MMT)
Demand and Supply
Bridging the gap - Cross border natural gas pipelines
Iran-Pakistan-India
Myanmar-Bangladesh-India
Impact of price
Cost built up of Natural gas in U.S
Impact of priceCost built up of Natural gas in U.S
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1995 2025
History Projections
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2005
Reference case$4.79
Rapid technology$4.35
Slow technology$5.18
Expected Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in U.S by 2025 ($ per MSCF)
Impact of price
INDIA - APM; 1.85 $/MSCF, JV: 3.1 – 4.2 $/MSCF
Impact of priceWorld wide Natural Gas Prices ($ per MSCF)
Impact of price
Higher price of natural gas may trigger fuel switching by consumers
Infrastructure development
A substantial boost in supplies from production or imports will take time and will require additional infrastructure Establishment of a national Gas Transmission
system Moving gas from newly emerging supply centres to
demand centres Addition of LNG infrastructure Bringing in Gas Distribution and Marketing system
DelhiDelhi
Mumbai
Chennai
An
dam
an- N
icob
ar
A 1 BLOCK, MYANMAR
EXISTING
PROPOSED
National Gas Grid
National Gas Grid GAILKolkata
Product Pipelines in India
PRODUCT PIPELINE
Infrastructure development
Infrastructure development
Types of Underground Natural Gas storage Facilities
Infrastructure development
U.S & Canada Distribution of Storage Facilities and Working Gas Capacity
Infrastructure development
U.S & Canada Projected Storage Capacity Additions and Costs
Regulatory issues
Regulation in the Indian Natural Gas sector is in a state of transition Natural gas industry in India is evolving : Moving from a centralised, Govt
controlled business to a more market responsive, market driven environment
DGH is the effective regulatory body for the upstream hydrocarbon sector in India
Determination of Wellhead price for the purpose of payment of royalty is under discussion
Policy of taking Profit gas in cash or kind by Government is under
consideration Implementation of Open Acreage Licensing policy to intensify the
Exploration in India
Regulatory issues
Transparent regulatory framework is desired to ensure that sectoral targets for growth are met Achieve Government's long-term plans for development of
gas sector, including establishment of National Gas Grid
Promoting investment in the development of gas infrastructure (pipelines, storage facilities)
Promoting competition among entities, ensuring reasonable tariffs and protecting interests of consumers
Promoting optimal utilization of resources invested in the sector and ensuring safe operations
Regulatory issues
Natural Gas Pipeline Policy is in the draft stage which aims to develop pipeline infrastructure and standards for interconnectivity
Common Carriage
Standards for interconnectivity
Capacity for transmission pipelines
Regulation of Tariffs
Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board Bill 2004 is also in the draft stage
Thank you