Gaps• For the next 3 months, collect all the rainfall over the

whole of Gambia and half of Senegal.

• The amount of rainfall we think you will get in 2009 will make it amongst the 10 driest years we measured between 1961 and 1990 (but …

the probability is only 45%, so we’re more likely to be wrong than right, and …

even if we are right the crops may not fail (and they may fail even if we’re wrong), and …

we might be wrong about the 45%).

• Consider yourselves forewarned.

Bridging the GapsGaps in Data

• More observations

• “Rightscaling”

Gaps in Climate Services

• Improve skill

• Improve communication

Gaps in Practice

• Generate demand

Gaps in Policy

• Enable response

Practical solutions now for practical problems.

Focusing only on improving early-warning

alone will not enable early-action.