GAME PLAN FOR 2017 GENERAL ELECTION MARCH-2015
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Transcript of GAME PLAN FOR 2017 GENERAL ELECTION MARCH-2015
OVERVIEW
The population will have grown to 48,370,051
In the year 2017 from 38,610,097 in year 2009.
The information is based on a growth rate of 2.9% and death rate estimated at
7/1000 people.
The analysis focused on only ten counties namely; Nairobi, Machakos, Kiambu,
Mombasa, Kisumu, Bungoma, Embu, Kakamega, Makueni and Kitui
Nairobi County
Nairobi population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 3,249,300 in year 2017 from 3,138,369 in year 2009
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 2,139,419. Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Nairobi Contd….
NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
1,728,801
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 82% VOTER TURN
OUT
1,417,617 82%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
311,184 18%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
410,618 17%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
2,139,419
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
721,802 30%
Nairobi County 2013 voting trend
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 82% VOTER TURN
OUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
1,728,801
1,417,617
311,184
410,618
2,139,419
721,802
Projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 2,373,087 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 16,612 people will be dead by year 2017, based on death
rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Nairobi contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 2,356,475 Percentage
ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 400,601 17%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 1,955,875
ASSUMING 82% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WIIL VOTE 1,603,817 82%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 352,057 18%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 752,658 32%
Nairobi 2017 projections.
- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 82% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WIIL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
2,356,475
400,601
1,955,875
1,603,817
352,057
752,658
Machakos County
Machakos population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 1,125,388 in year 2017 from 1,098,584 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 751,176. Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Machakos Contd…
NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013445,096
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84% VOTER TURN
OUT373,881 50%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 71,215 50%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED306,080 39%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013751,176
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013377,295 49%
Machakos County 2013 voting trend
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84% VOTER
TURN OUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
445,096.00
373,881
71,215
196,194
641,290
267,409
Machakos Projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 763,514 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 13,599 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Machakos contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 763,514
ASSUMING 39% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 297,770 39%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 465,743
ASSUMING 84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 391,224 84%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 74,519 16%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 372,289 49%
Machakos projection 2017
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 39% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
763,514
297,770
465,743
391,224
74,519
372,289
Kiambu County
Kiambu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 1,680,660 in year 2017 from 1,623,282 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 1,034,036 Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Kiambu contd…NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013861,829
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 91% VOTER TURN OUT784,264 76%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 77,565 24%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED172,207 17%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 20131,034,036
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013249,772 24%
Kiambu County 2013 voting trend
861,829
784,264
77,565
172,207
1,034,036
249,772
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 91% VOTER
TURN OUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Kiambu Projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 1,174,808 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 20,925 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Kiambu contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 1,174,808
ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 199,717 17%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 975,090
ASSUMING 91% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 887,332 91%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 87,758 9%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 287,475 24%
Kiambu Projection for 2017.
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 91% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
1,174,808
199,717
975,090
887,332
87,758
287,475
Mombasa County
Mombasa population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be in year 2017 from 939,370 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 612,655 Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Mombasa contd…
NUMBERSPERCENTAGE
S
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013408,747
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 67% VOTER
TURN OUT273,860 45%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 134,887 55%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED203,908 29%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013612,655
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013338,795 49%
Mombasa voting trend 2013
408,747
273,860
134,887
203,908
612,655
338,795
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 67% VOTER TURN
OUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Mombasa projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 692,537 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 12,119 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Mombasa Contd…
680,418
197,321 29%
483,096
323,675 67%
159,422 33%
356,743 52%TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
Mombasa Projection 2017 Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT
REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013)
WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING
TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE
ASSUMPTIONS)
680,418
197,321
483,096
323,675
159,422
356,743
Kisumu County
Kisumu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 968,909 in year 2017 from 939,370 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 612,655 Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Kisumu contd…
NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013385,820
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 90.45% TURNOUT348,974
67%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 36,846
33%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED137,689
21%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 523,509
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013174,535
27%
Kisumu voting trend 2013
385,820
348,974
36,846
137,689
523,509
174,535
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 90.45% TURNOUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Kisumu projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 692,537 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 33,934 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Kisumu Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 658,603
ASSUMING 21% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 138,307 21%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 520,296
ASSUMING 90.45% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 470,607 90%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 49,688 10%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 187,995 29%
Kisumu Projection 2017 Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 21% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 90.45% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
658,603
138,307
520,296
470,607.84
49,688
187,995
Bungoma County
Bungoma population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 1,700,486 in year 2017 from 1,630,934 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 801,630 Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Bungoma contd…
NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013410,462
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT350,986
44%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 59,476
56%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED391,168
38%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 801,630
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013450,644
44%
Bungoma voting trend 2013
410,462
350,986
59,476
391,168
801,630
450,644
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Bungoma projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 967,706 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 49,861 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Bungoma Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 967,706
ASSUMING 38% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 367,728 38%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 599,978
ASSUMING 85.51% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 513,041 86%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 86,937 14%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 454,665 47%
Bungoma Projection 2017 Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 38% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 85.51% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL
VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
967,706
367,728
599,978
513,041
86,937
454,665
Kitui County
Kitui population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 1,055,896 in year 2017 from 1,012,709 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 511,991 Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Kitui contd…
NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013324,673
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT276,134
54%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 48,539
46%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED187,318
29%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 511,991
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013235,857
36%
Kitui voting trend 2013
324,673
276,134
48,539
187,318
511,991
235,857
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
kitui projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 623,497 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 32,125 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Kitui Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 623,497
ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 180,814 29%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 442,683
ASSUMING 85.1% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 376,324 85%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 66,358 15%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 247,172 40%
Kitui Projection 2017 Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 85.1% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
623,497
180,814
442,683
376,324
66,358
247,172
Makueni County
Makueni population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 922,248 in year 2017 from 884,527 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 473,340 Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Makueni contd…
NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013298,221
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84.6% TURNOUT252,235
53%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 45,986
47%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED175,119
29%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 473,340
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013221,105
37%
Makueni voting trend 2013
298,221
252,235
45,986
175,119
473,340
221,105
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84.6% TURNOUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Makueni projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 568,282 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 29,281 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Makueni Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 568,282
ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 164,802 29%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 403,481
ASSUMING 84.6% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 341,345 85%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 62,136 15%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 226,938 40%
Makueni Projection 2017 Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 84.6% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
568,282
164,802
403,481
341,345
62,136
226,938
Kakamega County
Kakamega population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 1,731,470 in year 2017 from 1,660,651 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 844,752 Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Kakamega contd…
NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013567,460
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 83.67% TURNOUT474,794
56%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 92,666
44%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED277,292
26%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 844,752
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013369,958
35%
Kakamega voting trend 2013
567,460
474,794
92,666
277,292
844,752
369,958
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 83.67% TURNOUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Kakamega projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 1,006,453 based on those who were 11 years
in the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 51,857 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Kakamega Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 1,006,453
ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 261,678 26%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 744,775
ASSUMING 83.67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 623,153 84%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 121,622 16%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 383,300 38%
Kakamega Projection 2017 Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 83.67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
1,006,453
261,678
744,775
623,153
121,622
383,300
Embu County
Embu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into
account death rate of 7/1000 people.
The population will be 538,226 in year 2017 from 516,212 in year 2009.
The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 311,321 Based on those who were 16
years and above in the year 2009.
Embu contd…
NUMBERS PERCENTAGES
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013227,286
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 87.84% TURNOUT199,648
64%
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 27,638
36%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED84,035
23%
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 311,321
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013111,673
30%
Embu voting trend 2013
227,286
199,648
27,638
84,035
311,321
111,673
REGISTERED VOTERS 2013
ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 87.84% TURNOUT
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED
ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013
TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Embu projection for 2017
The number of eligible voters will be 352,552 based on those who were 11 years in
the year 2009.
They will have attained 18 years by 2017.
There is a possibility that 18,165 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on
death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Embu Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 352,552
ASSUMING 23% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 81,087 23%
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 271,465
ASSUMING 87.84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 227,135 84%
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 44,330 16%
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 125,417 36%
Embu Projection 2017 Contd…
ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017
ASSUMING 23% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER
REGISTERED VOTERS 2017
ASSUMING 87.84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE
THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE
TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS)
352,552
81,087
271,465
227,135
44,330
125,417
SCENARIOS
• Cord with only 8 counties amassing a 75% voter turn out they can
accumulate a total of 5,146,839.
• If they can achieve a 90% voter registration in the 8 counties, total
people eligible to vote in 2017 will be 6,862,452
CONCLUSION
A better strategy has to be developed and the following will be areas of focus
1. Issuance of IDS to 18 years and above citizens
2. Ensure the party attains a National outlook in its top officials
3. Build Trust worth coalitions, partnerships and networks with other like minded
political parties. E.g. the current coalition
4. Develop a deliberate strategy for 3M Kenyans living in the diaspora
5. Reduce the internal conflicts amongst current crop of elected leaders.
