G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili E P i A il … · G20 Seminar on Employment Policies,...

G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili E P i A il 2011Philippe Egger, Paris, April 2011

Employment to Population Ratio Second Semester 2010 and 2009 (Base 2nd Semester 2007=100)

TUR106

108

Better than 2007 and 2009

ARG*

BRA*

DEU

IDN

RUS100

102

104 45º Line

AUS

CAN

FRA

GBR

JPN

KORMEX

96

98

100

mes

ter 2

010

Worse than 2007 but better than 2009

ITA

USA92

94

96

2nd

Se

ESP

ZAF

88

90

92

Worse than 2007 and 2009

86

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

2nd Semester 20092nd Semester 2009 Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of total employment. Data for Argentina and Brazil are urban.

2International Labour Office (ILO)

2 5

Growth and Variation in Unemployment Rates - 2010

ESP

2

2.5

Economic Contractionand Increase in

ZAF

1

1.5

n pp

)

and Increase in Unemployment

Linear Trend

CAN

FRAGBR

ITA

JPN KORMEX

USA

0

0.5

riatio

n 20

10 (i

n

Economic growth and increase in unemployment

ARG*

AUS

CANDEU

IDN

RUS

-0.5

0

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

mpl

oym

ent V

ar

BRA*

-1.5

-1

Unem

Economic growth and decrease in unemployment

TUR

-2 5

-2

g p y

2.5Growth Rate 2010 (in %) Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of unemployed persons.

Labour data for Argentina and Brazil are urban. Data for Unemployment in2010 correspond to the average of data available.Data for Growth is the annual forecast of the WEO


Growth cluster: expanding domestic and externalGrowth cluster: expanding domestic and external demand; growth in labour-intensive sectors; rising real wages, including minimum wage; g g , g g ;expanding social protection; structural challenges remain.

Lacklustre growth cluster: low investment and business confidence; subdued domestic demand; low labour intensity of growth; shifts in sectoral

ti it i ti ( t ti ) i i lactivity require time (construction); rising long term unemployment; many structural challenges.


14060

World GDP (1999 =100), working poor (US$ 2 a day) and wage employment as % of total employment

120

13055

World GDP

working poor

100

110

45

50

90

100

40

wage employment

8035

1999 2003 2009


International Labour Office (ILO) 6

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.4

0.5

0 1

0.2

0.3

0

0.1

S OECD STAT D t b 2010 W ld B k d l t I di t 2010Sources: OECD STAT Database, 2010; World Bank development Indicators, 2010


Leaders agreed:

“To launch a framework that lays out the li i d th t t th tpolicies and the way we act together to

generate strong, sustainable and balanced global growth We need a durable recoveryglobal growth. We need a durable recovery that creates the good jobs our people need.”


Accelerate job creation to ensure a sustained recovery andAccelerate job creation to ensure a sustained recovery and future growth;

h l d lStrengthen social protection systems and promote inclusive active labour market policies;

Place employment and poverty alleviation at the centre of national and global economic strategies;

Improve the quality of jobs for our people;

Prepare our workforces for future challenges and opportunities.


Broad-based growth: strong, sustainable, balanced,

strong middle of income distribution, very low to no poverty,

Investment, enterprise development, l t i i d ti it i ht t

Social protection, education and training, l b f ti i ti l employment, rising productivity, rights at

work, collective bargaining, wage/productivity linkages

labour force participation, equal opportunities


Employment/GDPEmployment/GDP

< 0.30 0.30 ‐ 0.66 > 0.66

0.6 Japan, Germany, India,

Italy low wage

tivity

< 0

Turkey Indonesia, USItaly low wage

.5 Australia Brazil

Wage /produ

ct

0.55

‐1.

ChinaAustralia, Brazil,

France, Korea, Rep., South Africa, UK

Canada

> 1.5

Russia ArgentinaMexico,

Saudi Arabiahigh wage

low employment high employment


Sources: OECD STAT Database, 2010; World Bank development Indicators, 2010

Active fiscal and monetary policiesReal economy investments

Unemployment benefitsEmployment servicesReal economy investments,

including infrastructure and “green” economySupport to SMEs (credit, R&D,

Employment servicesActive inclusive labour market policies and programmesSkills development and training ( G20 T i i S )pp ( , ,

institutional) and sustainable enterprisesSectoral and regional investment

(see G20 Training Strategy)School-to-employment transitions, including apprenticeshipsExtension of basic social

and development policiesCollective bargaining broadly aligning productivity and wagesMi i li i

Extension of basic social protectionTargeted employment programmesF d t l i i l d i htMinimum wage policies

Hiring subsidies (targeted, temporary)T li i f bl t

Fundamental principles and rights at work and other relevant labour standards

Tax policies favourable to employment


“Countries should give consideration asCountries should give consideration, as appropriate, to the following:◦ Building adequate social protection for all, g q p ,

drawing on a basic social protection floor including: access to health care, income security f h ld l d h d b l h ldfor the elderly and persons with disabilities, child benefits and income security combined with public employment guarantee schemes for thepublic employment guarantee schemes for the unemployed and working poor”◦ A Global Jobs Pact, adopted by the InternationalA Global Jobs Pact, adopted by the International

Labour Conference on 19 June 2009


Lower Higher

MorbidityPoverty

Consumption Employment of

ki d ltyChild labourIncome Volatility

working age adultsProductivityGender equalityy

Precautionary savingsGender equalitySchool enrolment


35

25

302000 latest year

10

15

20

0

5

Source: ILO, 2010, World Social Security report


“ in seeking to maintain the link between…in seeking to maintain the link between social progress and economic growth, the guarantee of fundamental principles andguarantee of fundamental principles and rights at work is of particular significance in that it enables the persons concerned, tothat it enables the persons concerned, to claim freely and on the basis of equality of opportunity, their fair share of the wealthopportunity, their fair share of the wealth which they have helped to generate, and to achieve fully their human potential; …”y p ;


Country Freedom of Association Elimination of forced labour Elimination of discrimination Abolition of child labourCountry Freedom of Association and collective bargaining

Elimination of forced labour and compulsory labour

Elimination of discrimination (employment and

occupation)

Abolition of child labour

Convention 87 98 29 105 100 111 138 182ArgentinaAustraliaBrazilCanadaChinaFranceGermanyIndiaIndonesiaItalyJapanKorea, Rep. ofMexicoRussian Fed. Saudi ArabiaSouth AfricaSpainTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited StatesRatifications = 14 13 16 17 19 18 14 19

17

Ratifications 14 13 16 17 19 18 14 19

International Labour Office (ILO)

Policies to combat child labour; forced labour;Policies to combat child labour; forced labour; discrimination in employment and occupation;Policies to promote full, freely chosen and productive employment;Policies and institutions to facilitate social dialogue and collective bargaining on wagesdialogue and collective bargaining on wages, working time, occupational safety and health, social protection. pILO assistance to countries that seek to gradually, step by step, bring their legislation

d i i f i i h h i i l fand practice in conformity with the principles of fundamental conventions.


80

60

70

40

50

20

30

0

10

Source: ILO and United Nations


Employment and social protection policies areEmployment and social protection policies are essentially a national responsibility

Y t i l b li d h t hYet, in a globalized economy, each country has an interest in seeing others achieve high levels of productive employment and social protection

h h k (d k)with rights at work (decent work)

Employment and social protection policies andEmployment and social protection policies and outcomes are a shared interest within a framework of strong, sustainable and balanced growthgrowth


ChinaSaudi Arabia

ArgentinaKoreaJapan

RussiaGermany

FranceCanada

United KingdomMexico

Indonesia

A liUnited States

ItalyIndiaBrazil

France

-6 -1 4 9 14

South AfricaTurkey

Australia


Objective: G20 Employment and Labour Ministers inputs to G20 framework: p

◦ Employment to working age population ratiop y g g p p◦ Unemployment (long term and youth

unemployment)◦ Earnings dispersion (D9/D1ratio; D9/D5 ratio)◦ Unit labour costs (total economy, manufacturing)◦ Others?


Build on April 2010 G20 Labour andBuild on April 2010 G20 Labour and Employment Ministers’ Recommendations

Employment and social protection policies as central to the G20 framework for strongcentral to the G20 framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth to:◦ Achieve a high level of productive employment◦ Achieve a high level of productive employment◦ Gradually expand coverage of social protection◦ Gradually apply principles of 1998 ILO DeclarationGradually apply principles of 1998 ILO Declaration


G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili E P i A il … · G20 Seminar on Employment Policies,...

Documents

Transcript of G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili E P i A il … · G20 Seminar on Employment Policies,...